新疆伊宁县喀拉亚尕奇滑坡动力学特征研究

通过对高速远程黄土滑坡动力学特征的研究,提出黄土高速远程滑坡空间预测的模拟方法。以新疆伊宁县喀拉亚尕奇黄土滑坡为例,基于野外地质调查和无人机航拍影像图,结合滑坡研究区的工程地质条件,分析了该滑坡的基本特征和形成条件。研究发现,该滑坡的主要诱发因素是冰雪融水入渗,其孕灾模式主要为四个阶段:后缘拉裂阶段,黄土节理冻胀扩展阶段,融雪入渗失稳阶段,高速下滑阶段。同时利用Rapid模型对滑坡运动全过程进行模拟,计算得到滑坡运动持续时间为26 s,最大运动速度达到22 m/s,堆积体的平均厚度达到5 m等运动特征要素,结果表明Rapid模型可以较好的模拟分析黄土高速远程滑坡动力学效应,为黄土地区类似滑坡的成灾机理和动力学效应分析提供参考。      

引发2011年8月宁夏持续高温天气的青藏高压结构分析

利用常规气象观测资料、中尺度区域自动站逐时地面资料及NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°再分析资料等,对引发2011年8月6-10日宁夏中北部连续5天出现≥35℃的高温天气的青藏高压水平和垂直结构进行了天气学分析.结果表明:青藏高压是一个深厚的暖性负涡度系统,它与西风带长波脊的同位相叠加使得高原上空的长波脊和暖高压稳定加强,受其影响,青藏高压外围586 dagpm线东移越过高原后稳定维持在85°～105°E附近,高压脊线北界伸展到40°～42°N,西北地区大范围长时间处在584 dagpm以上的青藏高压和1000 hPa以下的地面热低压控制区域内;高压上空在中纬度极锋急流的作用下,高原东部存在“高空辐合、低空辐散”的环流配置导致高原东部维持较强的下沉运动,处在下沉区的宁夏上空晴朗少云,湿度小,风力相对较大,地面增温和蒸发强烈,地面感热远远大于潜热,有利于出现以“干热”为主的持续高温天气.在此基础上,文章提出了宁夏夏季高温的概念模型.     

Longitudinal genetic analysis of growth-related traits in red swamp crayfish Procambarus clarkii(Girard)

The red swamp crayfish, Procambarus clarkii, is an economically important species especially in China. Their exoskeleton places serious constraints on growth and culture management. Their growth is achieved through intermittent molting/ecdysis. The longitudinal genetic dynamics for growth-related traits at different ecdysial points in P. clarkii has been unclear to date. In this study, conditional genetic analysis was carried out for growth-related traits(body weight, body length, chela length, ...     

港口工程对粉砂淤泥质岸滩的影响

渤海湾西南岸粉砂淤泥质海岸处于岸滩蚀退状态,利用ECOMSED数值模拟方法,分析了港口工程建设对水动力和海底蚀淤的影响。研究结果表明,近岸海域-2 m等深线以内以侵蚀为主,侵蚀速率一般小于10 cm/a;-2~-6 m等深线以淤积为主,淤积速率一般在10 cm/a以下,局部大于20 cm/a,-6 m等深线侵蚀速率小于10 cm/a。黄骅港导沙堤建设后淤积区整体向海扩展,延伸至约-8 m等深线,面积增加约5.4%;航道最大淤积速率由61.9 cm/a减小为46.8 cm/a;导沙堤堤头受挑流作用冲刷速率达到29.7~30.2 cm/a。     

湖南寒婆坳矿区热变质煤结构演化及其矿物学特征响应

采用X射线荧光光谱(XRF)、差热分析(DTA)、扫描电子显微镜(SEM)、高分辨透射电镜(HRTEM)、X射线衍射(XRD)和拉曼光谱(Raman)等表征手段对湖南寒婆坳矿区热变质煤的化学组分、物理性质、结构演化与其矿物学特征响应进行了研究。结果表明:岩浆侵入体的热力及构造应力作用促进煤化程度升高逐渐转变为隐晶质石墨,氢、碳原子数目比(H/C)逐渐降低,矿物主要为伊利石、绿泥石、叶蜡石、石英及黄铁矿等;随变质程度增加,真密度升高,孔隙度与电阻率降低;在400℃之后,失重曲线下降缓慢且斜率变小,显示深度裂解与脱落较少。d₀₀₂、L_a、L_c的演化趋势呈非线性变化,显示煤有机大分子结构向石墨化演化的过程中呈现"跃变";隐晶质石墨样品的晶体结构主要为2H型石墨结构,不同程度地含有3R多型,石墨化度为0.47～0.84,石墨晶体轴长a为0.2469～0.2471 nm,c为0.6738～0.6762 nm,晶胞体积V为0.03562～0.03570 nm³,显示靠近岩体晶胞体积减小;随着变质程度升高,L     

Using data‐driven methods to explore the predictability of surface soil moisture with FLUXNET site data

Soil moisture (SM) is a key variable of land surface‐atmosphere interactions. Data‐driven methods have been used to predict SM, but the predictability of SM has not been well evaluated. This study investigated what variables and methods can be used to better predict SM for leading times of 7 days or longer with a global coverage of FLUXNET site data for the first time. Three machine‐learning models, that is, Bayesian linear regression, random forest, and gradient boosting regression tree, are used for the prediction. Variables including atmospheric forcing, surface soil temperature, time variables (year, day of year, and hour), the Fourier transformation of time variables, and lagged SM (7‐ to 14‐day lagged) were sequentially added into models. A framework with five experiments is designed for factorial exploration of SM predictability. A stepwise method was used to build the best models for each site. The performance of regression models became better when adding more explaining variables in most cases. The results showed that from 50 to 95% of variation of the best models can be explained. The important explaining variables are lagged surface SM, followed by day of year, year, soil temperature, and atmospheric forcing. The predictability of SM depends highly on SM memory characteristics and the persistence of seasonality. The effect of SM memory characteristics on SM prediction as an initial condition question has been widely discussed in this paper. Our results also provide an insight that mechanisms of seasonality effects on SM should be also paid more attention to.     

Assessing modern arboreal phytolith sensitivity to vegetation variations in temperate forest regions

To assess the reliability of arboreal phytoliths for differentiating vegetation types in temperate forest regions, we systematically analysed arboreal leaf phytoliths from 72 arboreal plants and 49 modern soils from three forest types in northeast China. The arboreal leaf phytolith production and morphotypes were highly variable between species. The arboreal leaf phytolith assemblages could clearly distinguish between broadleaf and coniferous species, but they were much less successful in differentiating broadleaved trees into subtaxa. Coniferous leaf morphotypes were successfully used to differentiate coniferous trees into families and subtaxa, especially in the Pinaceae. Two diagnostic broadleaved and six coniferous phytolith morphotypes were recognized within the modern soil beneath forest ecosystems. These arboreal phytoliths comprised up to 10–15% of the total soil phytoliths, and were dominated by coniferous types. Arboreal phytolith concentrations and phytolith assemblages in the soils fluctuated substantially amongst the three forest types. Soil arboreal phytolith assemblages were successfully used to differentiate samples from Larix mixed forest, broadleaf forest and Pinus koraiensis mixed forest. In addition, the arboreal index quantitatively distinguished the three forest types, with B/BE values <0.4 for Larix mixed forest samples, values from 0.4 to 0.6 for broadleaf forest samples, and values from 0.6 to 0.9 for P. koraiensis mixed forest. Thus, our surface soil arboreal phytolith assemblages and arboreal index are a useful reference for differentiating forest ecotypes, and they also provide reliable analogues for arboreal phytoliths from palaeoecological contexts in temperate forest regions.     

国家地理信息系统发展战略和政策指导

主席先生、女士们、先生们: 经过一段时间的紧张筹备,由国家计委、国家科委、国家测绘局联合召开的地理信息系统发展战略研讨会今天开幕了,很高兴能参加今天的会议,希望与会的中外专家对中国地理信息系统的发展各抒已见,共商地理信息系统及其产业的发展大计。 人类面临的人口、资源、环境压力日益增大,如何协调自然与社会间的矛盾,以保障社会经济的可持续发展,已成为世界各国政府亟待解决的重大问题。     

一次突发性暴雨的机理分析及短期预报思考

2015年9月4日白天,天津出现突发性暴雨过程,利用多种观测资料对此次过程进行分析,结果表明:偏南气流与高压底部东北风相遇,在蓟州山区以南形成辐合,触发雷暴发展;雷暴形成后,回波形成"后向传播"机制,配合中低空的南风脉动,在天津北部形成南北向的"列车效应",导致北部强降水的发生;上游的高空槽降水在近地面形成冷池,其向东辐散气流与偏东风相遇,在降水区下游触发新的雷暴,使得雨带快速东移,且当辐散气流与偏东风相遇后,出现小尺度辐合性气旋式环流,导致下游强降水增幅;当高空槽降水云团主体移过城区后,在γ中尺度辐合流场作用下,触发小尺度对流云团的生成和发展,影响天津城区再次出现强降水。在短期预报过程中,预报员在大尺度模式环境场分析的基础上,对于中尺度模式仅参考了其降水预报,而忽略了对中尺度环境场的分析,分析表明,虽然中尺度模式对此次过程的降水时段预报存在偏差,但其中尺度环境场预报,可以为此次暴雨过程在短期时效内(24h)的预报订正提供参考。     

湖北三种地形下AQI特征及其与气象因子的关系

基于2015—2016年湖北省环境监测数据和气象资料,分析了3种地形下空气质量指数(AQI)特征及其与气象因子的关系。结果表明:湖北省年空气质量指数时空分布特征为山区低平原高,冬季高夏季低,日高峰值襄阳出现在中午,武汉和宜昌出现在23:00—24:00;与空气质量指数关系较显著的气象因子包括相对湿度、变温、变压、风、降水等,其中降水对污染物的沉降作用跟空气质量等级有关,污染程度越重,需要清洁空气的雨量越大,轻度以上污染时,需要中雨及以上降水才会产生有效清洁,当降水为微量(1mm以下)时,AQI反而会增长;受不同地形影响,不同城市污染天气输入路径不同,襄阳为北风、武汉西北风、宜昌多弱东风扰动,且襄阳大风速出现的频数较高,而宜昌以小风为主。