黄土高原一次超级单体短时强降水中尺度分析

2012年盛夏陕西绥德县出现短时强降水,4 h雨量超过100 mm。利用NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料进行诊断分析发现,在陕北东北部对流层中下层有一中α尺度气旋存在,且随高度向东北倾斜,垂直方向上形成次级环流,使强降水区的上升运动加剧。分析地面观测、卫星资料发现,西路冷空气引导干侵入加强层结不稳定性,东路冷空气楔形抬升作用,使得不稳定能量释放;同时,在东西两路干冷空气的夹击作用下,绥德县内形成中气旋,暖湿空气在当地得以聚集上升;2个中β尺度对流云团在东西路风场作用下合并后迅速增强。多普勒雷达资料显示,2个中γ尺度的超级单体回波在绥德先后发展形成列车效应;2个超级单体中的中气旋特征各有不同,是回波结构演变的主要原因。     

Properties and stability of a meso-scale line-form disturbance

By using the 3D dynamic equations for small- and meso-scale disturbances, an investigation is performed on the heterotropic instability (including symmetric instability and traversal-type instability) of a zonal line-like disturbance moving at any angle with respect to basic flow, arriving at the following results: (1) with linear shear available, the heterotropic instability of the disturbance will occur only when flow shearing happens in the direction of the line-like disturbance movement or in the direction perpendicular to the disturbance movement, with the heterotropic instability showing the instability of the internal inertial gravity wave; (2) in the presence of second-order non-linear shear, the disturbance of the heterotropic instability includes internal inertial gravity and vortex Rossby waves. For the zonal line-form disturbance under study, the vortex Rossby wave has its source in the second-order shear of meridional basic wind speed in the flow and propagates unidirectionally with respect to the meridional basic flow. As a mesoscale heterotropic instable disturbance, the vortex Rossby wave has its origin from the second shear of the flow in the direction perpendicular to the line-form disturbance and is independent of the condition in the direction parallel to the flow; (3) for general zonal line-like disturbances, if the second-order shear happens in the meridional wind speed, i.e., the second shear of the flow in the direction perpendicular to the line-form disturbance, then the heterotropic instability of the disturbance is likely to be the instability of a mixed Rossby–internal inertial gravity wave; (4) the symmetric instability is actually the instability of the internal inertial gravity wave. The second-order shear in the flow represents an instable factor for a symmetric-type disturbance; (5) the instability of a traversal-type disturbance is the instability of the internal inertial gravity wave when the basic flow is constant or only linearly sheared. With a second or nonlinear vertical shear of the basic flow taken into account, the instability of a traversal-type disturbance may be the instability of a mixed vortex Rossby – gravity wave.     

三峡库区与西南库区消落带植物多样性及群落构建比较

近年来,我国西南流域陆续建成多座梯级高坝大库工程,随之形成的大面积水库消落带面临着植物恢复等问题,能否借鉴三峡库区消落带已有的大量植物修复成果和经验尚缺乏科学依据。通过对2021年出露期三峡库区和西南库区消落带现存植物进行调查,采用淹水时间统一划分淹水梯度带,淹水时间7个月及以上为重度淹水区(S)、淹水时间为5～6个月为中度淹水区(M)和淹水时间4个月及以下为轻度淹水区(L),定量比较了三峡库区和西南库区消落带沿各淹水梯度的物种组成、物种多样性和系统发育多样性,探讨了水库消落带物种组成的驱动因子、植物群落构建策略以及多样性维持机制等。结果显示,三峡库区消落带共发现维管束植物20科36属36种,西南库区消落带共发现维管束植物21科41属45种,二者物种组成的Jaccard、Sorensen相似性系数分别为30.65%、46.91%,均以一年生为主要生活型、菊科和禾本科为优势科,相似的淹水时间可能是导致二者物种组成相似的主要因素;西南库区消落带的Gleason丰富度指数、Shannon-Wiener多样性指数、Simpson优势度指数和Pielou均匀度指数整体优于三峡库区消落带,二者物种...     

用多普勒雷达资料对一次区域性暴雨的中尺度分析

利用多普勒雷达资料,对2006年6月2日夜间出现在陕西中部和北部地区的区域性暴雨过程进行分析。结果发现:低层暖湿急流和弱冷空气相互作用产生的两条中尺度辐合线是这一地区出现大暴雨的主要影响系统;低空东南急流为降水区提供的大量的水汽和不稳定能量堆积,在弱冷空气的触发下释放,是产生大暴雨的主要原因;低空急流的输送方向与中尺度辐合线的移动方向,决定了未来辐合线的发展状态;低空急流的日变化引起了暴雨夜发性。     

四川盆地水热型地热资源构造成因模式

地处青藏高原东缘的四川盆地是一个群山环绕的叠合型沉积盆地,蕴含着丰富的地热资源。四川盆地具有突变型和渐变型两类盆山结构,二者的构造样式存在明显差异,对盆地及周缘的水热型地热资源分布具有明显的控制作用。通过解析盆地及周缘地质构造,明确了盆地不同构造单元的构造样式;详细对比分析已有的地热勘查案例的异同性,提出了褶皱型、单斜型和褶皱—断裂复合型等3大类水热型地热资源的构造成因模式;认为四川盆地形成与演化过程中,构造运动与水热型地热资源的形成密切相关,主要表现在：1）频繁不均匀升降运动导致构造—沉积格局分异,控制着地热储盖层岩性、组合及区域展布;2）构造抬升形成的不整合面和古岩溶作用极大改善了地热储层的孔渗物性和流体输导能力,形成了优质的碳酸盐岩孔洞型热储;3）断裂可能是地下热水的补给通道和输导系统,亦或是阻隔屏障,取决于断裂类型和断层两盘岩性配置关系;4）地下热水易于沿具走滑分量断层和张性断层进行补给和输导。

     

A spectral mixture model analysis of the Kuroshio variability and the water exchange between the Kuroshio and the East China Sea

For understanding more about the water exchange between the Kuroshio and the East China Sea,We studied the variability of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea(ECS) in the period of 1991 to 2008 using a three-dimensional circulation model,and calculated Kuroshio onshore volume transport in the ECS at the minimum of 0.48 Sv(1 Sv ;106 m3/s) in summer and the maximum of 1.69 Sv in winter.Based on the data of WOA05 and NCEP,The modeled result indicates that the Kuroshio transport east of Taiwan Island decreased since 2000.Lateral movements tended to be stronger at two ends of the Kuroshio in the ECS than that of the middle segment.In addition,we applied a spectral mixture model(SMM) to determine the exchange zone between the Kuroshio and the shelf water of the ECS.The result reveals a significantly negative correlation(coefficient of-0.78) between the area of exchange zone and the Kuroshio onshore transport at 200 m isobath in the ECS.This conclusion brings a new view for the water exchange between the Kuroshio and the East China Sea.Additional to annual and semi-annual signals,intra-seasonal signal of probably the Pacific origin may trigger the events of Kuroshio intrusion and exchange in the ECS.     

基于网络环境的MapMIS数字化生产管理系统

Map MIS是一个应用于数字化测绘生产的管理信息系统。它集成了网络、数据库、分布式数据仓库技术 ,它可以在生产过程中帮助生产管理人员、质量检查人员、作业人员管理与数字化测绘生产相关的事务流、信息流和海量的数据流。提出了数字化测绘生产管理的新模式     

K-GM（1，1）模型在岩体变形监测中的应用

传统GM （1,1）模型存在着长期预测效果差、模型精度不高等问题,卡尔曼滤波能够排除建模过程中随机干扰因素,滤波值能够反映更真实的数据情况。为了能更好地提高变形监测的预测精度,基于传统GM （1,1）模型和卡尔曼滤波,提出K‐GM （1,1）模型,利用该模型对岩体变形监测数据进行建模预测,并与传统GM （1,1）模型预测结果进行对比分析,结果表明,K‐GM （1,1）模型具有较高的预测精度,可作为变形监测的一种新方法。     

多层螺旋CT对结肠癌淋巴结转移的诊断价值

目的：初步评判多层螺旋CT淋巴结短长径比值联合相对强化值对结肠癌淋巴结转移的诊断价值。方法：收集我院肿瘤外科经结肠镜或手术病理确诊的结肠癌患者47例作为研究对象,进行腹部CT平扫和增强扫描。记录腹部可疑淋巴结短径、短-长径比值、平扫和动、静脉期CT值以及相对强化值各项参数,并以病理结果为金标准,进行ROC曲线绘制,并分析上述各个参数的诊断效能。结果：结肠癌转移淋巴结的短径、短长径比值、平扫和动、静脉期CT值以及相对强化值与非转移淋巴结比较均明显升高（P<0.01）。短径、短-长径比值、平扫和动、静脉期CT值以及相对强化值所绘制ROC曲线AUC分别为0.649、0.725、0.713、0.723、0.696和0.793,灵敏度分别为63.30%、76.70%、73.30%、60.00%、76.72%和73.30%,特异度分别为75.00%、70.00%、60.00%、75.00%、65.00%和90.00%;淋巴结短长径比值联合相对强化值ROC曲线AUC为0.908,敏感度为86.70%,特异度为85.00%,一致性分析显示Kappa系数为0.787,提示有较好的一致性。结论：多层螺旋CT淋巴结短-长径比值联合相对强化值对结肠癌淋巴结转移具有较高的特异度,可为临床判断淋巴结转移提供重要依据。     

Simultaneous estimation of surface soil moisture and soil properties with a dual ensemble Kalman smoother

In this paper, a new state-parameter estimation approach is presented based on the dual ensemble Kalman smoother(DEn KS) and simple biosphere model(Si B2) to sequentially estimate both the soil properties and soil moisture profile by assimilating surface soil moisture observations. The Arou observation station, located in the upper reaches of the Heihe River in northwestern China, was selected to test the proposed method. Three numeric experiments were designed and performed to analyze the influence of uncertainties in model parameters, atmospheric forcing, and the model's physical mechanics on soil moisture estimates. Several assimilation schemes based on the ensemble Kalman filter(En KF), ensemble Kalman smoother(En KS), and dual En KF(DEn KF) were also compared in this study. The results demonstrate that soil moisture and soil properties can be simultaneously estimated by state-parameter estimation methods, which can provide more accurate estimation of soil moisture than traditional filter methods such as En KF and En KS. The estimation accuracy of the model parameters decreased with increasing error sources. DEn KS outperformed DEn KF in estimating soil moisture in most cases, especially where few observations were available. This study demonstrates that the DEn KS approach is a useful and practical way to improve soil moisture estimation.