Earthquake early warning as a tool for improving society’s resilience and crisis response

Increasing vulnerability of metropolitan areas to earthquake and the very low probability level at which short term earthquake forecasting is possible make earthquake early warning methods (EEW) the main viable alternative for effective risk reduction in cities. Preventive actions, such as retrofitting and building and the diffusion of construction codes, are of course essential. They are not sufficient. A substantial proportion of the population in areas of higher earthquake hazard still reside in buildings that do not meet modern earthquake resistant standards, and cannot currently be strengthened in an economically viable manner. As demonstrated in Japan EEW has the potential of significantly contributing to reduce individual vulnerability of urban population to earthquakes. Future research on EEW should be focused on its implementation to protect lifelines, infrastructures and strategic buildings, and it should include training of administrators and people who can fully exploit the technological advantages offered by EEW systems. In particular it should foresee extensive cost-benefit analysis for each potential application, the identification and solution of legal problems (such as liability in the event of false or missed alarms), education and training, both for mitigation and response, as well as detection and processing within 1 s of the first seismic wave arrivals. Further objectives include the development of people-centred EEW, specialized IT and decision making support systems, integration of sensors, communications and decision making systems, integration into programs of eco-sustainable development, and integration with other EW systems (all hazard systems).     

Dioxin Like Compounds Bulk Deposition on Corn (Zea mais) and Alfa Alfa (Medicago sativa): Modelled Levels on Derived Silage and Hay and Their Relevance for Dairy Production

Dioxin‐like compounds from regular, occasional or fugitive airborne sources of emission may fall out on fodders close to be harvested for silage and hay production. In this way, a prolonged long‐term intake of contaminated forages in dairy animals may be envisaged, able to determine a rise of the background contamination in milk. We simulated different risk scenarios taking into account the inventoried bulk dry depositions in rural areas of the aforesaid contaminants, silage and hay biomass production per hectare, forages regimen in dairy animals, and the congeners carry‐over rate (COR) from forages to milk. Considering atmospheric depositions >10 pg I‐TE m^?2 day^?1 and accounting for a 30% COR, dairy milk could rise up to the PCDD/F level of 3 pg WHO₁₉₉₈‐TE g^?1 fat. The modelling indicates that in rural areas bulk emissions should be selectively minimised, accounting for the calendar of the different agricultural practices, because of their potential impact on the fodders. Since environmental factors play a non‐negligible role in food production, a stronger harmonisation between I‐TE and WHO_1998–2005‐TE scales with respect to dioxin‐like polychlorobiphenyl congeners inclusion is envisaged. This will allow the prevention of the human indirect exposure to such contaminants when released in the air.     

Effects of suspended sediments from reservoir flushing on fish and macroinvertebrates in an alpine stream

The downstream ecological consequences of two controlled “free flow” flushing operations designed to remove sediments accumulated in an alpine reservoir are described. The main objectives of the study were (a) to verify to what extent the suspended solid concentration (SSC) in the receiving water course can be controlled by flushing operations, (b) to determine the biological consequences of flushing operations, and (c) to produce technical guidelines for the future planning and monitoring of these activities. We found that the flushing of large volumes of accumulated sediment had clear effects on the stream ecosystem due to the unpredictability of short duration SSC peaks (70–80 g L⁻¹) and the high average SSC (4–5 g L⁻¹) within flushing periods. The main impacts were decreased fish densities (up to 73%) and biomass (up to 66%). A greater mortality recorded for juveniles will likely result in long-term impairment of the age-structures of future fish populations. The zoobenthic assemblages, despite exhibiting a drastic reduction in abundance following the first floods, showed substantial recovery within 3 months of the beginning of flushing operations. Regular sediment removal by yearly flushing is recommended in order to avoid SSC peaks and to facilitate the control of scouring effects caused by the water used to wash out sediments. We also recommend maximum allowable SSCs of 10 g L⁻¹ (daily average) and 5 g L⁻¹ (overall average) for flushing operations carried out in similar environmental contexts.     

Influence of infill distribution and design typology on seismic performance of low- and mid-rise RC buildings

A growing attention has been addressed to the influence of infills on the seismic behavior of Reinforced Concrete buildings, also supported by the observation of damage to infilled RC buildings after severe earthquakes (e.g. L’Aquila 2009, Lorca 2011). In this paper, a numerical investigation on the influence of infills on the seismic behavior of four different case study buildings is carried out: four- and eight-storey buildings, designed for seismic loads according to the current Italian technical code or for gravity loads only according to an obsolete technical code, are considered. Seismic capacity at two Limit States (Damage Limitation and Near Collapse) is assessed through static push-over analyses, within the N2 spectral assessment framework. Different infill configurations are considered (Bare, Uniformly Infilled, Pilotis), and a sensitivity analysis is carried out, thus evaluating the influence of main material and capacity parameters on seismic response, depending on the number of storeys and the design typology. Fragility curves are obtained, through the application of a Response Surface Method. Seismic performance is also expressed in terms of failure probability, given a reference time period.     

A performance‐based framework for adaptive seismic aftershock risk assessment

Operative seismic aftershock risk forecasting can be particularly useful for rapid decision‐making in the presence of an ongoing sequence. In such a context, limit state first‐excursion probabilities (risk) for the forecasting interval (a day) can represent the potential for progressive state of damage in a structure. This work lays out a performance‐based framework for adaptive aftershock risk assessment in the immediate post‐mainshock environment. A time‐dependent structural performance variable is adopted in order to measure the cumulative damage in a structure. A set of event‐dependent fragility curves as a function of the first‐mode spectral acceleration for a prescribed limit state is calculated by employing back‐to‐back nonlinear dynamic analyses. An epidemic‐type aftershock sequence model is employed for estimating the spatio‐temporal evolution of aftershocks. The event‐dependent fragility curves for a given limit state are then integrated together with the probability distribution of aftershock spectral acceleration based on the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence aftershock hazard. The daily probability of limit state first‐excursion is finally calculated as a weighted combination of the sequence of limit state probabilities conditioned on the number of aftershocks. As a numerical example, daily aftershock risk is calculated for the L'Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). A representative three‐story reinforced concrete frame with infill panels, which has cyclic strength and stiffness degradation, is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage. It is observed that the proposed framework leads to a sound forecasting of limit state first‐excursion in the structure for two limit states of significant damage and near collapse. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A multi-disciplinary study of the 2002–03 Etna eruption: insights into a complex plumbing system

The 2002–03 Mt Etna flank eruption began on 26 October 2002 and finished on 28 January 2003, after three months of continuous explosive activity and discontinuous lava flow output. The eruption involved the opening of eruptive fissures on the NE and S flanks of the volcano, with lava flow output and fire fountaining until 5 November. After this date, the eruption continued exclusively on the S flank, with continuous explosive activity and lava flows active between 13 November and 28 January 2003. Multi-disciplinary data collected during the eruption (petrology, analyses of ash components, gas geochemistry, field surveys, thermal mapping and structural surveys) allowed us to analyse the dynamics of the eruption. The eruption was triggered either by (i) accumulation and eventual ascent of magma from depth or (ii) depressurisation of the edifice due to spreading of the eastern flank of the volcano. The extraordinary explosivity makes the 2002–03 eruption a unique event in the last 300 years, comparable only with La Montagnola 1763 and the 2001 Lower Vents eruptions. A notable feature of the eruption was also the simultaneous effusion of lavas with different composition and emplacement features. Magma erupted from the NE fissure represented the partially degassed magma fraction normally residing within the central conduits and the shallow plumbing system. The magma that erupted from the S fissure was the relatively undegassed, volatile-rich, buoyant fraction which drained the deep feeding system, bypassing the central conduits. This is typical of most Etnean eccentric eruptions. We believe that there is a high probability that Mount Etna has entered a new eruptive phase, with magma being supplied to a deep reservoir independent from the central conduit, that could periodically produce sufficient overpressure to propagate a dyke to the surface and generate further flank eruptions.Editorial responsibility: J. Donnelly-Nolan     

A model-order reduction framework for hybrid simulation based on component-mode synthesis

Testing of stiff physical substructures (PSs) still poses major technical issues that prevent from adopting hybrid simulation (HS) as a standard structural testing method. Firstly, elastic deformation of reaction frames, as well as the limited resolution of displacement transducers, deteriorate displacement control accuracy. Secondly, as a consequence of control errors, small perturbations of actuator displacements entail large restoring force oscillations that spuriously excite the higher eigenmodes of the hybrid model. For this reason, in the current practice, force-controlled hydraulic jacks handle vertical degrees of freedom, which are typically associated with stiff axially loaded members and excluded from the time integration loop. Vertical forces are either kept constant or adjusted during the experiment based on simplified redistribution rules. Besides deterioration of displacement control accuracy, stiff PSs naturally increase the frequency bandwidth of the hybrid model, whose higher eigenfrequencies (divided by the testing time scale) may fall outside the frequency bandwidth of the actuation system, thus destabilizing the HS. This is a collateral issue to which, in the authors' knowledge, no sufficient attention as been dedicated yet, and this paper tries to address it. From this standpoint, we propose component-mode synthesis as a rigorous approach for deriving reduced-order physical and numerical substructure mass and stiffness matrices that minimize the frequency bandwidth of the hybrid model. The proposed methodology allowed for performing HSs of a load-bearing unreinforced masonry structure including both horizontal and vertical degrees of freedom with a standard three-actuator setup used for cyclic testing.     

Shake table tests on standard and innovative temporary partition walls

Shake table tests are performed on temporary internal partitions for office buildings. Four different specimens are tested. A steel frame is designed to exhibit relative displacements which typically occur at a given story of ordinary buildings. Four different partition walls are tested simultaneously for each specimen typology. This allows investigating the influence of an innovative device on the seismic performance of the tested components. The innovative device avoids the unhooking of the panels from the supporting studs. Several shake table tests are performed subjecting the specimens to interstory drift ratios up to 1.57%. Both the hysteretic curves and the natural frequency trend highlight that the partitions do not contribute to the lateral stiffness of the test setup. The damping ratio increases after the partition walls are installed within the test frame, causing a beneficial effect in the dynamic response. Minor damage state occurs for interstory drift ratio (IDR) in the range 0.41–0.65% in standard specimens, whereas moderate and major damage states are attained for IDR in the range 0.51–0.95%. Significant increase of collapse IDR is recorded with the introduction of the innovative device, up to IDR larger than 1.45%. It can be therefore concluded that a simple innovative device is defined, which significantly improves the seismic performance of the tested specimen. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Measurements of volcanic SO2 and CO2 fluxes by combined DOAS,Multi-GAS and FTIR observations: a case study from Turrialba and Telica volcanoes

Over the past few decades, substantial progress has been made to overcome the technical difficulties of continuously measuring volcanic SO₂ emissions. However, measurements of CO₂ emissions still present many difficulties, partly due to the lack of instruments that can directly measure CO₂ emissions and partly due to its strong atmospheric background. In order to overcome these difficulties, a commonly taken approach is to combine differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) by using NOVAC scan-DOAS instruments for continuous measurements of crateric SO₂ emissions, and electrochemical/NDIR multi-component gas analyser system (multi-GAS) instruments for measuring CO₂/SO₂ ratios of excerpts of the volcanic plume. This study aims to quantify the representativeness of excerpts of CO₂/SO₂ ratios measured by Multi-GAS as a fraction of the whole plume composition, by comparison with simultaneously measured CO₂/SO₂ ratios using cross-crater Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). Two study cases are presented: Telica volcano (Nicaragua), with a homogenous plume, quiescent degassing from a deep source and ambient temperature, and Turrialba volcano (Costa Rica), which has a non-homogeneous plume from three main sources with different compositions and temperatures. Our comparison shows that in our “easier case” (Telica), FTIR and Multi-GAS CO₂/SO₂ ratios agree within a factor about 3 %. In our “complicated case” (Turrialba), Multi-GAS and FTIR yield CO₂/SO₂ ratios differing by approximately 13–25 % at most. These results suggest that a fair estimation of volcanic CO₂ emissions can be provided by the combination of DOAS and Multi-GAS instruments for volcanoes with similar degassing conditions as Telica or Turrialba. Based on the results of this comparison, we report that by the time our measurements were made, Telica and Turrialba were emitting approximately 100 and 1,000 t day^?1 of CO₂, respectively.