Seismic performance evaluation of plasterboard partitions via shake table tests

The damage of nonstructural components represents the largest contribution to the economic loss caused by an earthquake. Since nonstructural components are not amenable to traditional structural analysis, full-scale experimental testing is crucial to understand their behaviour under earthquake. For this reason, shaking table tests are performed to investigate the seismic behaviour of plasterboard partitions. A steel test frame is properly designed in order to simulate the seismic effects at a generic building storey. The tests are performed shaking the table simultaneously in both horizontal directions. To investigate a wide range of interstorey drift demand and seismic damage, the shakes are performed scaling the accelerograms at eleven different intensity levels. The tested plasterboard partitions from Siniat exhibit a good seismic behaviour, both in their own plane and out of plane, showing limited damage up to 1.1 % interstorey drift ratio. The correlation between the dynamic characteristics of the test setup and the recorded damage is evidenced. Finally, an interesting comparison between the experimental results and the analytical model is also performed.     

Earthquake early warning feasibility in the Campania region (southern Italy) and demonstration system for public school buildings

We present the results of a feasibility study of an earthquake early warning system (EEWS) for the Campania region (southern Italy) using schools as specific targets. The study considered the seismogenic zones as sources of potential earthquakes for the area, the Italian accelerometric network as the recording network for seismic event occurrence, and the performances of the software platform PRESTo ^Plus for data analysis and processing. We analyze the distribution of lead-times for all possible threatening seismic sources for each municipality in the region under study by extracting the lead-time value corresponding to the 5th, 10th and 25th percentiles of the distributions. We discuss the results for the 5th percentile in order to analyze the worst-case scenario: in the case of a single site, the lead-time is expected to be larger than this value in the 95 % of the cases. Since the population distribution in Campania is uneven and most of the people live nearby the coast, whilst the most destructive earthquakes occur along the Apennine chain, we can conclude that an efficient EEWS can allow most of the schools in the area to undertake some mitigating actions. The testing of the EEWS was carried out in the high school ITIS ‘E. Majorana’, located at Somma Vesuviana, about 80 km from the seismogenic Irpinia region. For this purpose, the Sentinel, an actuator made up of low-cost hardware (i.e., Arduino^®), was developed in close cooperation with students and teachers of the school to receive alert messages from the PRESTo ^Plus platform and warn the school users in case of a seismic event. The EEWS and the Sentinel were successfully tested during some blind drills performed during normal school activities.     

Observed and predicted earthquake damage scenarios: the case study of Pettino (L’Aquila) after the 6th April 2009 event

A damage scenario based on observational data collected in L’Aquila Municipality after the 6th April 2009 earthquake is compared with a predicted damage scenario derived from the application of a simplified analytical method for seismic vulnerability assessment of Reinforced Concrete (RC) buildings at large scale. The observational damage scenario is derived from a database of 131 RC buildings located in the Municipality of L’Aquila, which after the 2009 earthquake were subjected to post-earthquake usability assessment procedure. The simplified analytical approach adopted is based on the Capacity Spectrum Method to evaluate seismic capacity at different Damage States (DSs) based on the displacement capacity of structural and non-structural elements. DSs and the corresponding displacement capacity are defined through the interpretation of the observational-based DSs provided by the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98. Data predicted by the adopted methodology are in good agreement with the observed damage distribution. The observed damage scenario is also compared with predicted scenarios derived from other methodologies from literature.     

Probability gains of an epidemic-type aftershock sequence model in retrospective forecasting of <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> ≥ 5 earthquakes in Italy

A stochastic triggering (epidemic) model incorporating short-term clustering was fitted to the instrumental earthquake catalog of Italy for event with local magnitudes 2.6 and greater to optimize its ability to retrospectively forecast 33 target events of magnitude 5.0 and greater that occurred in the period 1990–2006. To obtain an unbiased evaluation of the information value of the model, forecasts of each event use parameter values obtained from data up to the end of the year preceding the target event. The results of the test are given in terms of the probability gain of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model relative to a time-invariant Poisson model for each of the 33 target events. These probability gains range from 0.93 to 32000, with ten of the target events yielding a probability gain of at least 10. As the forecasting capability of the ETAS model is based on seismic activity recorded prior to the target earthquakes, the highest probability gains are associated with the occurrence of secondary mainshocks during seismic sequences. However, in nine of these cases, the largest mainshock of the sequence was marked by a probability gain larger than 50, having been preceded by previous smaller magnitude earthquakes. The overall evaluation of the performance of the epidemic model has been carried out by means of four popular statistical criteria: the relative operating characteristic diagram, the R score, the probability gain, and the log-likelihood ratio. These tests confirm the superior performance of the method with respect to a spatially varying, time-invariant Poisson model. Nevertheless, this method is characterized by a high false alarm rate, which would make its application in real circumstances problematic.     

Perturbation of earthquake probability for interacting faults by static Coulomb stress changes

This work aims at the assessment of the occurrence probability of future earthquakes on the Italian territory, conditional to the time elapsed since the last characteristic earthquake on a fault and to the history of the following events on the neighbouring active sources. We start from the estimate of the probability of occurrence in the period 2007–2036 for a characteristic earthquake on geological sources, based on a time-dependent renewal model, released in the frame of Project DPC-INGV S2 (2004–2007) “Assessing the seismogenic potential and the probability of strong earthquakes in Italy”. The occurrence rate of a characteristic earthquake is calculated, taking into account both permanent (clock advance) and temporary (rate-and-state) perturbations. The analysis has been carried out on a wide area of Central and Southern Italy, containing 32 seismogenetic sources reported in the DISS 3.0.2 database. The results show that the estimated effect of earthquake interaction in this region is small if compared with the uncertainties affecting the statistical model used for the basic time-dependent hazard assessment.     

Convection in a rotating deep compressible spherical shell: Application to the Sun

In this paper we study the interaction of rotation with convection in a deep compressible spherical shell as the Sun's convection zone. We examine how the energy transport and the large scale motions can be affected by rotation. In particular we study how a large scale meridional circulation can give rise to variations of angular velocity with latitude and depth.It is assumed that the energy transport is only due to convection and that the mixing-length theory gives an adequate representation of it. Furthermore we assume that rotation acts as a perturbation of the turbulent convective flux through its transport coefficient.The equations involved in the model are integrated numerically in the limit of large viscosity and slow rotation. After having expanded all physical quantities to the first order in terms of Legendre polynomials, the fitting with the observed solar differential rotation gives the expansion parameter, which represents the coupling constant between rotation and convection.The results show a three-cell circulation extending from the poles to the equator. The first one is located in the lower half of the convection zone with the fluid rising at the equator and sinking at the poles. In the second one the direction of the motion is reversed while the third one, located in a thin upper layer, shows the same characteristics of the first one. The meridional velocities at the surface are directed towards the poles and are about 20 cm s^-1. In the other cells the meridional velocities are typically of a few cm s^-1 while the radial velocities are of the order of a few tenths of cm s^-1.The heat flux relative variation at the surface is about 10^-4 (3 × 10^-3 at the bottom) with a polar excess. The temperature variation at the surface is of the same order, with an equatorial excess however. The convection seems to be stabilized stronger at the equator. The angular velocity increases inwards and varies about 6% between the surface and the bottom of the convection zone.An attempt is made for explaining the picture which emerges. In particular the negligible flux and temperature variations at the surface are explained in terms of equalization by the particular structure of the latitudinal flow. This configuration of large scale circulation is attributed to the high stratification of the convection zone with depth.     

Impacts of climate and river flooding on the hydro-ecology of a floodplain basin, Peace-Athabasca Delta, Canada since A.D. 1700

Multi-proxy paleolimnological analyses on lake sediment cores from “Spruce Island Lake” (58° 50.82′ N, 111° 28.84′ W), a perched basin in the northern Peace sector of the Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD), Canada, give insights into the relative roles of flow regulation of the Peace River and climatic variability on the basin hydro-ecology. Results indicate substantial variability in basin hydro-ecology over the past 300 years ranging from seasonal to periodic desiccation in the 1700s to markedly wetter conditions during the early 1800s to early 1900s. The reconstruction is consistent with (1) dry climatic conditions that defined the peak of the Little Ice Age and subsequent amelioration evident in conventional ring-width and isotopic analyses of tree-ring records located hydrologically and climatically upstream of the PAD, and (2) Peace River flood history inferred from sub-annual magnetic susceptibility measurements from another lake sediment record in the Peace sector of the PAD. Although regulation of the Peace River for hydroelectric power generation since 1968 has long been considered a major stressor of the PAD ecosystem leading to reduced frequency of ice-jam and open-water flooding and an extended period of drying, our results show that current hydro-ecological status is not unprecedented as both wetter and drier conditions have persisted for decades in the recent past under natural climatic variability. Furthermore, paleolimnological evidence from Spruce Island Lake indicates that recently observed dryness is part of a longer trend which began some 20-40 years prior to Peace River regulation.     

The stability of UO2OH+ and UO2[HPO4]22− complexes at 25°C (reply to a comment by V. S. Tripathi)

Tripathi argues that we could not determine the stability constant (β₂) of UO₂[HPO₄]₂^2? in our solutions because they were supersaturated with respect to solid uranyl triphosphate. This is irrelevant because no phosphate solids were present in solution during our experiments. He further argues that the conditions of our experiments were not ideal for us to determine the potentially most accurate value of β₂. This is also irrelevant. The point is that our published value of log β₂ = 18.3 ± 0.2 is given with an uncertainty which clearly acknowledges the inaccuracy of its determination based on our experimental and computational approach.