On the effect of a low viscosity asthenosphere on the temporal change of the geoid—A challenge for future gravity missions

New satellite technology to measure changes in the Earth’s gravity field gives new possibilities to detect layers of low viscosity inside the Earth. We used density models for the Earth mantle based on slab history as well as on tomography and fitted the viscosity by comparison of predicted gravity to the new CHAMP gravity model. We first confirm that the fit to the observed geoid is insensitive to the presence of a low viscosity anomaly in the upper mantle as long as the layer is thin ( 200 km) and the viscosity reduction is less than two orders of magnitude. Then we investigated the temporal change in geoid by comparing two stages of slablet sinking based on subduction history or by advection of tomography derived densities and compared the spectra of the geoid change for cases with and without a low viscosity layer, but about equal fit to the observed geoid. The presence of a low viscosity layer causes relaxation at smaller wavelength and thus leads to a spectrum with relatively stronger power in higher modes and a peak around degrees 5 and 6. Comparing the spectra to the expected degree resolution for GRACE data for a 5 years mission duration shows a weak possibility to detect changes in the Earth’s gravity field due to large scale mantle circulation, provided that other causes of geoid changes can be taken into account with sufficient accuracy. A discrimination between the two viscosity cases, however, demands a new generation of gravity field observing satellites.     

A New Equation Solver for Modeling Turbulent Flow in Coupled Matrix‐Conduit Flow Models

Karst aquifers represent dual flow systems consisting of a highly conductive conduit system embedded in a less permeable rock matrix. Hybrid models iteratively coupling both flow systems generally consume much time, especially because of the nonlinearity of turbulent conduit flow. To reduce calculation times compared to those of existing approaches, a new iterative equation solver for the conduit system is developed based on an approximated Newton–Raphson expression and a Gauß–Seidel or successive over‐relaxation scheme with a single iteration step at the innermost level. It is implemented and tested in the research code CAVE but should be easily adaptable to similar models such as the Conduit Flow Process for MODFLOW‐2005. It substantially reduces the computational effort as demonstrated by steady‐state benchmark scenarios as well as by transient karst genesis simulations. Water balance errors are found to be acceptable in most of the test cases. However, the performance and accuracy may deteriorate under unfavorable conditions such as sudden, strong changes of the flow field at some stages of the karst genesis simulations.     

A new concept for estimating the influence of vegetation on throughfall kinetic energy using aerial laser scanning

Soil loss caused by erosion has enormous economic and social impacts. Splash effects of rainfall are an important driver of erosion processes; however, effects of vegetation on splash erosion are still not fully understood. Splash erosion processes under vegetation are investigated by means of throughfall kinetic energy (TKE). Previous studies on TKE utilized a heterogeneous set of plant and canopy parameters to assess vegetation's influence on erosion by rain splash but remained on individual plant- or plot-levels. In the present study we developed a method for the area-wide estimation of the influence of vegetation on TKE using remote sensing methods. In a literature review we identified key vegetation variables influencing splash erosion and developed a conceptual model to describe the interaction of vegetation and raindrops. Our model considers both amplifying and protecting effect of vegetation layers according to their height above the ground and aggregates them into a new indicator: the Vegetation Splash Factor (VSF). It is based on the proportional contribution of drips per layer, which can be calculated via the vegetation cover profile from airborne LiDAR datasets. In a case study, we calculated the VSF using a LiDAR dataset for La Campana National Park in central Chile. The studied catchment comprises a heterogeneous mosaic of vegetation layer combinations and types and is hence well suited to test the approach. We calculated a VSF map showing the relation between vegetation structure and its expected influence on TKE. Mean VSF was 1.42, indicating amplifying overall effect of vegetation on TKE that was present in 81% of the area. Values below 1 indicating a protective effect were calculated for 19% of the area. For future work, we recommend refining the weighting factor by calibration to local conditions using field-reference data and comparing the VSF with TKE field measurements. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

Changes in monthly baseflow across the U.S. Midwest

Characterizing streamflow changes in the agricultural U.S. Midwest is critical for effective planning and management of water resources throughout the region. The objective of this study is to determine if and how baseflow has responded to land alteration and climate changes across the study area during the 50‐year study period by exploring hydrologic variations based on long‐term stream gage data. This study evaluates monthly contributions to annual baseflow along with possible trends over the 1966–2016 period for 458 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages within 12 different Midwestern states. It also examines the influence of climate and land use factors on the observed baseflow trends. Monthly contribution breakdowns demonstrate how the majority of baseflow is discharged into streams during the spring months (March, April, and May) and is overall more substantial throughout the spring (especially in April) and summer (June, July, and August). Baseflow has not remained constant over the study period, and the results of the trend detection from the Mann–Kendall test reveal that baseflows have increased and are the strongest from May to September. This analysis is confirmed by quantile regression, which suggests that for most of the year, the largest changes are detected in the central part of the distribution. Although increasing baseflow trends are widespread throughout the region, decreasing trends are few and limited to Kansas and Nebraska. Further analysis reveals that baseflow changes are being driven by both climate and land use change across the region. Increasing trends in baseflow are linked to increases in precipitation throughout the year and are most prominent during May and June. Changes in agricultural intensity (in terms of harvested corn and soybean acreage) are linked to increasing trends in the central and western Midwest, whereas increasing temperatures may lead to decreasing baseflow trends in spring and summer in northern Wisconsin, Kansas, and Nebraska.     

Ensemble modelling of ice cover for a reservoir affected by pumped‐storage operation and climate change

Ensemble modelling was used to assess the robustness of projected impacts of pumped‐storage (PS) operation and climate change on reservoir ice cover. To this end, three one‐dimensional and a two‐dimensional laterally averaged hydrodynamic model were set up. For the latter, the strength of the impacts with increasing distance from the dam was also investigated. Climate change effects were simulated by forcing the models with 150 years of synthetic meteorological time series created with a weather generator based on available air temperature scenarios for Switzerland. Future climate by the end of the 21^st century was projected to shorten the ice‐covered period by ~2 months and decrease ice thicknesses by ~13 cm. Under current climate conditions, the ice cover would already be affected by extended PS operation. For example, the average probability of ice coverage on a specific day was projected to decrease by ~13% for current climate and could further be reduced from ~45% to ~10% for future climate. Overall, the results of all models were consistent. Although the number of winters without ice cover was projected to increase for all one‐dimensional models, studying individual segments of the two‐dimensional model showed that the impact was pronounced for segments close to the PS intake/outlet. In summary, the reservoir's ice cover is expected to partially vanish with higher probability of open water conditions closer to the PS intake/outlet.     

Karst spring responses examined by process-based modeling

Ground water in karst terrains is highly vulnerable to contamination due to the rapid transport of contaminants through the highly conductive conduit system. For contamination risk assessment purposes, information about hydraulic and geometric characteristics of the conduits and their hydraulic interaction with the fissured porous rock is an important prerequisite. The relationship between aquifer characteristics and short-term responses to recharge events of both spring discharge and physicochemical parameters of the discharged water was examined using a process-based flow and transport model. In the respective software, a pipe-network model, representing fast conduit flow, is coupled to MODFLOW, which simulates flow in the fissured porous rock. This hybrid flow model was extended to include modules simulating heat and reactive solute transport in conduits. The application of this modeling tool demonstrates that variations of physicochemical parameters, such as solute concentration and water temperature, depend to a large extent on the intensity and duration of recharge events and provide information about the structure and geometry of the conduit system as well as about the interaction between conduits and fissured porous rock. Moreover, the responses of solute concentration and temperature of spring discharge appear to reflect different processes, thus complementing each other in the aquifer characterization.     

Data Analysis and Modeling to Optimize Thermal Treatment Cost and Performance

The objective of in situ thermal treatment is typically to reduce the contaminant mass or average soil concentration below a specified value. Evaluation of whether the objective has been met is usually made by averaging soil concentrations from a limited number of soil samples. Results from several field sites indicate large performance uncertainty using this approach, even when the number of samples is large. We propose a method to estimate average soil concentration by fitting a log normal probability model to thermal mass recovery data. A statistical approach is presented for making termination decisions from mass recovery data, soil sample data, or both for an entire treatment volume or for subregions that explicitly considers estimation uncertainty which is coupled to a stochastic optimization algorithm to identify monitoring strategies to meet objectives with minimum expected cost. Early termination of heating in regions that reach cleanup targets sooner enables operating costs to be reduced while ensuring a high likelihood of meeting remediation objectives. Results for an example problem demonstrate that significant performance improvement and cost reductions can be achieved using this approach.     

One Million Years tephra record at IODP Sites U1436 and U1437: Insights into explosive volcanism from the Japan and Izu arcs

The 1 Myr tephra records of IODP (International Ocean Discovery Program) Holes U1436A and U1437B in the Izu‐Bonin fore‐ and reararc were investigated in order to assess provenance and eruptive volumes, respectively. In total, 304 tephra samples were examined and 260 primary tephra layers were identified. Tephra provenance was determined by means of major and trace element compositions of glass shards and distinguished between Japan and Izu‐Bonin arc origin of the tephra layers. A total of 33 marine tephra compositions were correlated to the Japan arc and 227 to the Izu arc. Twenty marine tephra layers were correlated between the two drilling sites. Additionally, we defined eleven correlations of marine tephra deposits to major widespread Japanese eruptions; from the 1.05 Ma Shishimuta‐Pink Tephra to the 30 ka Aira‐Tn Tephra, both from Kyushu Island. These eruptions provide independent time markers within the sediment record and six correlations were used to date tephra layers from Japan in Hole U1436A to establish an alternative age model for this hole. Furthermore, the minimum distal tephra volumes of all detected events were calculated, which enabled the comparison of the tephra volumes that derived from the Japan and the Izu‐Bonin arcs. For some of the major Japanese eruptions these are the first volume estimations that also include distal deposits. All of the Japanese tephras derived from events with eruption magnitude M_v ≥ 5.6 and three of the investigated eruptions reach magnitudes M_v ≥ 7. Volcanic events of the Izu‐Bonin arc have mostly eruption magnitudes M_v ≤ 5.     

Assessment of a monumental masonry bell-tower after 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence by long-term SHM

The response of the San Pietro monumental bell-tower located in Perugia, Italy, to the 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence is investigated, taking advantage of the availability of field data recorded by a vibration-based SHM system installed in December 2014 to detect earthquake-induced damages. The tower is located about 85 km in the NW direction from the epicenter of the first major shock of the sequence, the Accumoli Mw6.0 earthquake of August 24th, resulting in a small local PGA of about 30 cm/s², whereby near-field PGA was measured as 915.97 cm/s² (E–W component) and 445.59 cm/s² (N–S component). Similar PGA values also characterized the two other major shocks of the sequence (Ussita Mw5.9 and Norcia Mw6.5 earthquakes of October 26th and 30th, respectively). Despite the relatively low intensity of such earthquakes in Perugia, the analysis of long-term monitoring data clearly highlights that small permanent changes in the structural behavior of the bell-tower have occurred after the earthquakes, with decreases in all identified natural frequencies. Such natural frequency decays are fully consistent with what predicted by non-linear finite element simulations and, in particular, with the development of microcracks at the base of the columns of the belfry. Microcracks in these regions, and in the rest of tower, are however hardly distinguishable from pre-existing ones and from the physiological cracking of a masonry structure, what validates the effectiveness of the SHM system in detecting earthquake-induced damage at a stage where this is not yet detectable by visual inspections.