Optimal experimental design for reservoir property estimates in geothermal exploration

During geothermal reservoir development, drilling deep boreholes turns out to be extremely expensive and risky. Thus, it is of great importance to work out the details of suitable borehole locations in advance. Here, given a set of existing boreholes, we demonstrate how a sophisticated numerical technique called optimal experimental design helps to find a location of an additional exploratory borehole that reduces risk and, ultimately, saves cost. More precisely, the approach minimizes the uncertainty when deducing the effective permeability of a buried reservoir layer from a temperature profile measured in this exploratory borehole. In this paper, we (1) outline the mathematical formulation in terms of an optimization problem, (2) describe the numerical implementation involving various software components, and (3) apply the method to a 3D numerical simulation model representing a real geothermal reservoir in northern Italy. Our results show that optimal experimental design is conceptually and computationally feasible for industrial-scale applications. For the particular reservoir and the estimation of permeability from temperature, the optimal location of the additional borehole coincides with regions of high flow rates and large deviations from the mean temperature of the reservoir layer in question. Finally, the presentation shows that, methodologically, the optimization method can be generalized from estimating permeability to finding any other reservoir properties.     

Evaluation of ecotoxicological effects of endocrine disrupters during a four-year survey of the Mediterranean population of swordfish (Xiphias gladius)

In this project we investigated the ecotoxicological effects of endocrine disrupters in a four-year survey of the Mediterranean population of swordfish (Xiphias gladius). In the Mediterranean environment, top predators, such as swordfish, accumulate high concentrations of polyhalogenated aromatic hydrocarbons (PHAHs) and toxic metals, potentially incurring high toxicological risk. The effects of organochlorines and trace elements (Hg, Cd and Pb) in 192 swordfish specimens, caught in the Strait of Messina, Sicily, Italy, were investigated using vitellogenin (Vtg), zona radiata proteins (Zrp) and CYP1A (BPMO, EROD) activities. Vtg and Zrp were found to be dramatically induced in some adult male specimens, suggesting that this species is highly exposed to estrogens in the Mediterranean Sea. A role of organochlorines in this induction phenomenon is suggested by the statistically significant correlations between Zrp in plasma and PCB concentrations in muscle (p<0.032) and Vtg in plasma and PCB concentrations in liver (p<0.034) of male specimens. Levels of trace elements in liver were in the following ranges: Hg 1-22, Cd 1-28 and Pb 0-1.6 ppm d.w. These data indicate potential reproductive alterations in large pelagic fish and suggest the need for continuous monitoring to avoid reductions in the population of this fish species of high commercial and ecological interest.     

Evaluation of ecotoxicological effects of endocrine disrupters during a four-year survey of the Mediterranean population of swordfish (Xiphias gladius)

In this project we investigated the ecotoxicological effects of endocrine disrupters in a four-year survey of the Mediterranean population of swordfish (Xiphias gladius). In the Mediterranean environment, top predators, such as swordfish, accumulate high concentrations of polyhalogenated aromatic hydrocarbons (PHAHs) and toxic metals, potentially incurring high toxicological risk. The effects of organochlorines and trace elements (Hg, Cd and Pb) in 192 swordfish specimens, caught in the Strait of Messina, Sicily, Italy, were investigated using vitellogenin (Vtg), zona radiata proteins (Zrp) and CYP1A (BPMO, EROD) activities. Vtg and Zrp were found to be dramatically induced in some adult male specimens, suggesting that this species is highly exposed to estrogens in the Mediterranean Sea. A role of organochlorines in this induction phenomenon is suggested by the statistically significant correlations between Zrp in plasma and PCB concentrations in muscle (p<0.032) and Vtg in plasma and PCB concentrations in liver (p<0.034) of male specimens. Levels of trace elements in liver were in the following ranges: Hg 1–22, Cd 1–28 and Pb 0–1.6 ppm d.w. These data indicate potential reproductive alterations in large pelagic fish and suggest the need for continuous monitoring to avoid reductions in the population of this fish species of high commercial and ecological interest.     

Holocene environmental history in high‐Arctic North Greenland revealed by a combined biomarker and macrofossil approach

In this study, we use a combined biomarker and macrofossil approach to reconstruct the Holocene climate history recorded in Trifna Sø, Skallingen area, eastern North Greenland. Chronological information is derived from comparison of lithological, biogeochemical and macrofossil characteristics with a well‐dated record from nearby Lille Sneha Sø. Following local deglaciation around c. 8 cal. ka BP, the local peak warmth occurred between c. 7.4 and 6.2 cal. ka BP as indicated by maximum macrofossil abundances of warmth‐demanding plants (Salix arctica and Dryas integrifolia) and invertebrates (Daphnia pulex and Chironomidae). Warm conditions were dominated by terrestrial organic matter (OM) sedimentation as implied by the alkane‐based P_aq ratio, but increased aquatic productivity is indicated when temperature was highest around 6.5 cal. ka BP. The n‐C₂₉/n‐C₃₁ alkane ratio shows that vegetation in the catchment was dominated by shrubs after deglaciation, but shifted towards relatively more grassy/herbaceous vegetation during peak warmth. After 5.4 cal. ka BP, the disappearance of warmth‐demanding plant and invertebrate macrofossils indicates cooling in the Skallingen area. This cooling was characterized by a significant shift towards dominance of aquatic OM sedimentation in Trifna Sø as implied by high P_aq ratios. Cooling was also associated with a shift in vegetation type from dwarf‐shrub heaths towards relatively more herbaceous vegetation in the catchment, stronger erosion and more oligotrophic conditions in the lake. Our data show that mean air temperatures inferred using branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) do not seem to accurately reflect the local climatic history. Irrespective of calibration, methylation of branched tetraethers (MBT) palaeothermometry cannot be reconciled with the macrofossil evidence and seems to be biased by either changing brGDGT sources (in situ vs. soil‐derived) or changing species assemblages and/or an unknown physiological response to changing environmental conditions at high latitude.     

Observations of Comet 9P/Tempel 1 around the Deep Impact event by the OSIRIS cameras onboard Rosetta

The OSIRIS cameras on the Rosetta spacecraft observed Comet 9P/Tempel 1 from 5 days before to 10 days after it was hit by the Deep Impact projectile. The Narrow Angle Camera (NAC) monitored the cometary dust in 5 different filters. The Wide Angle Camera (WAC) observed through filters sensitive to emissions from OH, CN, Na, and OI together with the associated continuum. Before and after the impact the comet showed regular variations in intensity. The period of the brightness changes is consistent with the rotation period of Tempel 1. The overall brightness of Tempel 1 decreased by about 10% during the OSIRIS observations. The analysis of the impact ejecta shows that no new permanent coma structures were created by the impact. Most of the material moved with . Much of it left the comet in the form of icy grains which sublimated and fragmented within the first hour after the impact. The light curve of the comet after the impact and the amount of material leaving the comet ( of water ice and a presumably larger amount of dust) suggest that the impact ejecta were quickly accelerated by collisions with gas molecules. Therefore, the motion of the bulk of the ejecta cannot be described by ballistic trajectories, and the validity of determinations of the density and tensile strength of the nucleus of Tempel 1 with models using ballistic ejection of particles is uncertain.     

Use of Picard and Newton iteration for solving nonlinear ground water flow equations

This study examines the use of Picard and Newton iteration to solve the nonlinear, saturated ground water flow equation. Here, a simple three-node problem is used to demonstrate the convergence difficulties that can arise when solving the nonlinear, saturated ground water flow equation in both homogeneous and heterogeneous systems with and without nonlinear boundary conditions. For these cases, the characteristic types of convergence patterns are examined. Viewing these convergence patterns as orbits of an attractor in a dynamical system provides further insight. It is shown that the nonlinearity that arises from nonlinear head-dependent boundary conditions can cause more convergence difficulties than the nonlinearity that arises from flow in an unconfined aquifer. Furthermore, the effects of damping on both convergence and convergence rate are investigated. It is shown that no single strategy is effective for all problems and how understanding pitfalls and merits of several methods can be helpful in overcoming convergence difficulties. Results show that Picard iterations can be a simple and effective method for the solution of nonlinear, saturated ground water flow problems.     

Environmental constraints on lake sediment mineral compositions from the Tibetan Plateau and implications for paleoenvironment reconstruction

Inorganic minerals form a major component of lacustrine sediments and have the potential to reveal detailed information on previous climatic and hydrological conditions. The ability to extract such information however, has been restricted by a limited understanding of the relationships between minerals and the environment. In an attempt to fill in this gap in our knowledge, 146 surface sediment samples have been investigated from 146 lakes on the Tibetan Plateau. The mineral compositions derived from these samples by X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) were used to examine the relationships between mineral compositions and the environmental variables determined for each site. Statistical techniques including Multivariate regression trees (MRT) and Redundancy Analysis (RDA), based on the mineral spectra and environmental variables, reveal that the electrical conductivity (EC) and Mg/Ca ratios of lake water are the most important controls on the composition of endogenic minerals. No endogenic minerals precipitate under hyper-fresh water conditions (EC lower than 0.13 mS/cm), with calcite commonly forming in water with EC values above 0.13 mS/cm. Between EC values of 0.13 and 26 mS/cm the mineral composition of lake sediments can be explained in terms of variations in the Mg/Ca ratio: calcite dominates at Mg/Ca ratios of less than 33, whereas aragonite commonly forms when the ratio is greater than 33. Where EC values are between 26 and 39 mS/cm, monohydrocalcite precipitates together with calcite and aragonite; above 39 mS/cm, gypsum and halite commonly form. Information on the local geological strata indicates that allogenic (detrital) mineral compositions are primarily influenced by the bedrock compositions within the catchment area. By applying these relationships to the late glacial and Holocene mineral record from Chaka Salt Lake, five lake stages have been identified and their associated EC conditions inferred. The lake evolved from a freshwater lake during the late glacial (before 11.4 cal. ka BP) represented by the lowest EC values (<0.13 mS/cm), to a saline lake with EC values slightly higher than 39 mS/cm during the early and mid Holocene (ca. 11.4–5.3 cal. ka BP), and finally to a salt lake (after 5.3 cal. ka BP). These results illustrate the utility of our mineral-environmental model for the quantitative reconstruction of past environmental conditions from lake sediment records.     

Post-kinematic recovery of fractured cordierite in the lower amphibolite facies: the significance of intra-crystal cation diffusion for retrograde partial mineral breakdown

Brittle intra-crystal fracturing during a micro-seismic event under amphibolite facies P–T conditions (ca. 4.5 kbar, 555°C) formed micro-shear zones and brittle fragments in cordierite from migmatites of the Ordovician Sierras Pampeanas (NW Argentina). During post-seismic static recovery and coarsening of crystal fragments, primary cordierite (X_Mg?=?0.65) underwent partial breakdown within the fractured and subsequently recovered and recrystallized part of primary cordierite. Post-kinematic partial primary cordierite breakdown results in the formation of secondary sillimanite, magnetite, staurolite, quartz, and secondary cordierite (X_Mg?=?0.70–0.80) within a ca. 300–500 μm thick alteration zone. Secondary cordierite, volumetrically the most important secondary phase, essentially forms by iron and magnesium diffusion and substitution. All other secondary phases form by nucleation. The retrograde breakdown occurred under near-isochemical conditions with only limited influx of hydrothermal fluids containing minor zinc, potassium, silica, and excess oxygen. The observed modal composition of the alteration zone is similar to results of thermodynamic modeling of primary cordierite breakdown, using multiphase equilibria software. This indicates that the observed reaction reflects conditions of, or close to, thermodynamic equilibrium. Although fluid was present during, and may have been an important factor contributing to, partial mineral breakdown, we consider post-kinematic recovery and recrystallization, effected by a combination of cation diffusion and elimination of dislocations, as the key process facilitating retrograde metamorphism and the generation of the secondary mineral assemblage in (near-) equilibrium modes.     

Lateglacial and Holocene variation in aeolian sediment flux over the northeastern Tibetan Plateau recorded by laminated sediments of a saline meromictic lake

Predominantly laminated lake sediments from a saline closed‐basin lake on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau were investigated using a multi‐proxy approach (¹⁴C‐accelerator mass spectrometry dating, smear‐slide analysis, loss on ignition, grain size, X‐ray diffraction, elemental concentration, ostracod assemblages, stable isotopes of ostracod shells) to trace the regional environmental and climatic history in the Lateglacial and Holocene. Before about 15 cal. ka BP, small saline water bodies probably filled the basin under unstable cold and harsh environmental conditions. Soon after about 14.9 cal. ka BP, a relatively deep saline lake was established, probably as a result of runoff from melting snow, ice and frozen ground in the lake's catchment. Large changes in flux of aeolian material to the lake were recorded during this initial period of formation of Lake Kuhai. Highest lake levels, a low sediment accumulation rate and less saline conditions were maintained between about 12.8 and 7.1 cal. ka BP when the aeolian influx diminished significantly. After about 7.1 cal. ka BP, the aeolian influx remained at a moderate level apart from a strongly increased dust delivery to the lake between about 6.1 and 5.4 cal. ka BP and a minor short‐lived period of slightly enhanced aeolian influx at about 2.7 cal. ka BP. The strongly enhanced dust input to the lake between 6.1 and 5.4 cal. ka BP represented the largest influx of aeolian material to Lake Kuhai during the entire Holocene. However, evidence for climatic deterioration during this period is not seen at most other palaeoclimate sites on the Tibetan Plateau, but instead a significant increase in aridity has been recorded at numerous sites in the northern foreland of the Tibetan Plateau and on the Chinese Loess Plateau. The large dust input to Lake Kuhai between 6.1 and 5.4 cal. ka BP probably did not result from a severe climate deterioration on the Tibetan Plateau itself, but from the pronounced aridity in its northern and eastern foreland. In contrast, the increase in dust influx about 2.7 cal. ka BP seems to correspond to a brief warming spell recorded at other sites on the Tibetan Plateau too. A slight increase in lake level and decrease in salinity after about 0.6 cal. ka BP suggests a slightly higher effective moisture during the final lake stage, accompanied by a somewhat larger dust influx. This apparent contradiction possibly results from enhanced human activities on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau during the last 600 years. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.