Fluid-driven low-grade metamorphism in polydeformed rocks of Avalonia (Arisaig Group, Nova Scotia, Canada)

The Lower Silurian??Lower Devonian Arisaig Group (Antigonish Highlands) in the Canadian Appalachians is a sequence of shallow marine strata deposited after the accretion of Avalonia to Baltica during the closure of the Iapetus Ocean. Deformation of the strata is widely attributed to the Devonian Acadian orogeny and produced shallowly plunging regional folds and a cleavage of varying penetrativity. Phyllosilicate minerals from the finest-grained rocks exhibit very low-grade (diagenetic-anchizone) metamorphic conditions. X-ray diffraction study reveals that the sampled rocks contain quartz, K-white mica, chlorite, and feldspars; illite?Csmectite and chlorite?Csmectite mixed-layers are common but Na?CK mica and kaolinite occur only in some samples. The identification of illite?Csmectite mixed-layers in diagenetic samples, with Kübler Index >0.50 ??°2?? and the highly heterogeneous b-cell dimension of the K-white micas are in agreement with the variable chemical composition of dioctahedral micas, which present low illitic substitution and variable phengitic content. The spatial variation in the above crystal-chemical parameters was plotted along a NW?CSE composite cross section across the regional folds. No correlation was found between the metamorphic conditions and either the stratigraphic depth or the strain values measured by phyllosilicates orientation analyses, as a function of the penetrativity of the cleavage. However, the metamorphic grade generally increases towards the Hollow Fault, and is highest in samples located within a 1?km corridor from the fault surface. Incipient cleavage is observed in the anchizonal samples located in the vicinity of the Hollow Fault and in some of the diagenetic samples, indicating cleavage development under low temperatures (<200?oC). These relationships, together with regional syntheses, suggest low-grade metamorphism post-dated regional folding and was coeval with Late Carboniferous dextral movement along the Hollow Fault. Fluid circulation associated with movement along this major fault may be the driving mechanism for the increasing metamorphism towards it.     

Market-based conservation of the Amazonian forests: Revisiting win–win expectations

Governments and development organisations consider the involvement of poor forest managers in global value chains and markets as a most promising approach for resolving the social and environmental challenges of the Amazon. This paper intends to provide a clearer picture about opportunities and potentials of this market-approach, by analysing integrated forest based development initiatives in the Bolivian, Brazilian, Ecuadorian and Peruvian Amazon. Findings suggest that the externally promoted initiatives seldom correspond to local realities and that they suffer from limited financial viability due to competitive disadvantages of locals in comparison to more capitalized actors. Success stories remain isolated without replication, and depend on external support for continuation. Only a limited number of families provided with privileged support have been able to overcome the technical, institutional and financial hurdles and to benefit from existing market opportunities. In some cases, interventions have generated conflicts and even weakened social organisation. Instead of simply copying the mistakes of the past regarding the emerging markets for environmental services, it is deemed essential to question the current market focus and search for alternatives placing greater emphasis on the interests, cultures and capacities of local people.     

Methodology and applications for the benefit cost analysis of the seismic risk reduction in building portfolios at broadscale

This article presents a methodology for an estimate of the benefit cost ratio of the seismic risk reduction in buildings portfolio at broadscale, for a world region, allowing comparing the results obtained for the countries belonging to that region. This methodology encompasses (1) the generation of a set of random seismic events and the evaluation of the spectral accelerations at the buildings location; (2) the estimation of the buildings built area, the economic value, as well as the classification in structural typologies; (3) the development of vulnerability curves for each typology; (4) the estimation of the annual average loss of the buildings portfolio in the current conditions as well as in the case of a hypothetical structural intervention. The benefit cost ratio is estimated as the difference between the estimates of the present value of these two annual average losses, divided by the retrofitting costs. This methodology has been applied to the portfolio of public schools of 14 countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, for evaluating the feasibility of the seismic risk reduction at a national scale.     

Palaeoenvironmental evolution of Cenote Aktun Ha (Carwash) on the Yucatan Peninsula,Mexico and its response to Holocene sea-level rise

A 61-cm core was obtained from 4 m below the water table in Cenote Aktun Ha, on the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The cenote is 8.6 km from the Caribbean coast and its formation and evolution have been largely affected by sea-level change. The base of the core dates to 6,940–6,740 cal year BP and overlying sediments were deposited rapidly over the subsequent ~200 years. The pollen record shows that the cenote evolved from a marsh dominated by red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle) and fern (Polypodiaceae) to an open-water system. These vegetation changes were controlled by water level and salinity and are thus useful indicators of past sea level. At the base, the δ¹³C_org isotopic ratios reveal the influence of terrestrial vegetation (−29‰ VPDB), but shift to more negative values up-core (−33‰), indicating an influence from particulate matter in the flooded cenote pool. Although microfossil populations were nearly absent through most of the core, the microfossil assemblage in the upper 6 cm of the core is dominated by the juvenile foraminifer Ammonia tepida and the thecamoebian genus Centropyxis. These populations indicate open-water conditions in the cenote and a major environmental shift around 6,600 cal year BP, which is related to sea-level rise in the Caribbean basin. These data fit well with previously established sea-level curves for the Caribbean Sea. Our reconstruction of the environmental history of Cenote Aktun Ha helps elucidate the floral and hydrological history of the region, and highlights the utility of cenote sediments for studying the Holocene sea-level history of the Caribbean Sea.     

Spatiotemporal variations of extreme sea levels around the South China Sea: assessing the influence of tropical cyclones,monsoons and major climate modes

With sea levels projected to rise as a result of climate change, it is imperative to understand not only long-term average trends, but also the spatial and temporal patterns of extreme sea level. In this study, we use a comprehensive set of 30 tide gauges spanning 1954–2014 to characterize the spatial and temporal variations of extreme sea level around the low-lying and densely populated margins of the South China Sea. We also explore the long-term evolution of extreme sea level by applying a dynamic linear model for the generalized extreme value distribution (DLM-GEV), which can be used for assessing the changes in extreme sea levels with time. Our results show that the sea-level maxima distributions range from ~?90 to 400 cm and occur seasonally across the South China Sea. In general, the sea-level maxima at northern tide gauges are approximately 25–30% higher than those in the south and are highest in summer as tropical cyclone-induced surges dominate the northern signal. In contrast, the smaller signal in the south is dominated by monsoonal winds in the winter. The trends of extreme high percentiles of sea-level values are broadly consistent with the changes in mean sea level. The DLM-GEV model characterizes the interannual variability of extreme sea level, and hence, the 50-year return levels at most tide gauges. We find small but statistically significant correlations between extreme sea level and both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Our study provides new insight into the dynamic relationships between extreme sea level, mean sea level and the tidal cycle in the South China Sea, which can contribute to preparing for coastal risks at multi-decadal timescales.

     

Parameter Estimation for Groundwater Models under Uncertain Irrigation Data

The success of modeling groundwater is strongly influenced by the accuracy of the model parameters that are used to characterize the subsurface system. However, the presence of uncertainty and possibly bias in groundwater model source/sink terms may lead to biased estimates of model parameters and model predictions when the standard regression‐based inverse modeling techniques are used. This study first quantifies the levels of bias in groundwater model parameters and predictions due to the presence of errors in irrigation data. Then, a new inverse modeling technique called input uncertainty weighted least‐squares (IUWLS) is presented for unbiased estimation of the parameters when pumping and other source/sink data are uncertain. The approach uses the concept of generalized least‐squares method with the weight of the objective function depending on the level of pumping uncertainty and iteratively adjusted during the parameter optimization process. We have conducted both analytical and numerical experiments, using irrigation pumping data from the Republican River Basin in Nebraska, to evaluate the performance of ordinary least‐squares (OLS) and IUWLS calibration methods under different levels of uncertainty of irrigation data and calibration conditions. The result from the OLS method shows the presence of statistically significant (p < 0.05) bias in estimated parameters and model predictions that persist despite calibrating the models to different calibration data and sample sizes. However, by directly accounting for the irrigation pumping uncertainties during the calibration procedures, the proposed IUWLS is able to minimize the bias effectively without adding significant computational burden to the calibration processes.