Limitations of real-time models for forecasting river flooding from monsoon rainfall

Very intense rainfall during the southwest and northeast monsoons causes severe river flooding in India. Some traditional techniques used for real-time forecasting of flooding involve the relationship between effective rainfall and direct surface runoff, which simplifies the complex interactions between rainfall and runoff processes. There are, however, serious problems in deducing these variables in real time, so it is highly desirable to have a real-time flood forecasting model that would directly relate the observed discharge hydrograph to the observed rainfall. The storage routing model described by Baba and Hoshi (1997), Tanaka et al. (1997), and Baba et al. (2000), and a simplified version of this model, have been used to compute observed river discharge directly from observed hourly rainfall. This method has been used to study rainfall–runoff data of the Ajay River Basin in eastern India. Five intense rainfall events of this basin were studied. Our results showed that the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of discharge prediction for these five events was 98.6%, 94.3%, 86.9%, 85.6%, and 67%. The hindcast for the first two events is regarded as completely satisfactory whereas for the next two events it is deemed reasonable and for the fifth it is unsatisfactory. It seems the models will yield accurate hindcast if the rainfall is uniform over the drainage basin. When the rainfall is not uniform the performance of the model is unsatisfactory. In future this problem can, in principle, be corrected by using a weighted amount if rainfall is based upon multiple rain-gauge observations over the drainage basin. This would provide some measure of the dispersion in the rainfall. The model also seems unable to simulate flooding events with multiple peaks.     

The light transmission and seiche depth of Izmir Bay,western Turkey

Izmir Bay is one of the most polluted estuaries in the whole Mediterranean Sea. The inner part of the Bay (Inner Bay) is heavily affected by domestic and industrial discharge. As a result of these loads, strong eutrophication occurs in the Inner Bay, which is temporally anaerobic. The ecologically sensitive approach of the local authorities during the last decade has given rise to a wide variety of monitoring and research studies on this bay. On the other hand, the municipality of Izmir started to operate wastewater treatment facilities since January 2000. The Institute of Marine Sciences and Technology — Izmir (IMST) with its research vessel R/V K Piri Reis has been conducting an intensive monitoring program since 1988 and especially during the recent few years. These investigations provide an opportunity for the evaluation of the performance of the wastewater treatment plant in terms of the change in the optical properties of Izmir Bay water in a positive manner. The turbidity values measured in these monitoring studies indicate that the values have changed drastically after January 2000. Their spatial variation indicates that the values decrease from the Inner Bay towards the Aegean Sea. The turbidity (light transmission) values are measured with an automatic CTD (conductivity, temperature and depth) system during each cruise. The seiche disc depth measurement is carried out only occasionally. The accuracy of the seiche disc depth is dependent on certain daylight conditions and depends on the operator. The seiche disc depth (D _s) is an important parameter to estimate primary production of organic matter (hereafter called production). A relation between light transmission (turbidity) value and seiche disc depth (D _s) is found with very good agreement. The correlations are very high (approximately 0.94) with slight seasonal variation.     

Pervasive melt percolation reactions in ultra-depleted refractory harzburgites at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, 15° 20′N: ODP Hole 1274A

ODP Leg 209 Site 1274 mantle peridotites are highly refractory in terms of lack of residual clinopyroxene, olivine Mg# (up to 0.92) and spinel Cr# (∼0.5), suggesting high degree of partial melting (>20%). Detailed studies of their microstructures show that they have extensively reacted with a pervading intergranular melt prior to cooling in the lithosphere, leading to crystallization of olivine, clinopyroxene and spinel at the expense of orthopyroxene. The least reacted harzburgites are too rich in orthopyroxene to be simple residues of low-pressure (spinel field) partial melting. Cu-rich sulfides that precipitated with the clinopyroxenes indicate that the intergranular melt was generated by no more than 12% melting of a MORB mantle or by more extensive melting of a clinopyroxene-rich lithology. Rare olivine-rich lherzolitic domains, characterized by relics of coarse clinopyroxenes intergrown with magmatic sulfides, support the second interpretation. Further, coarse and intergranular clinopyroxenes are highly depleted in REE, Zr and Ti. A two-stage partial melting/melt–rock reaction history is proposed, in which initial mantle underwent depletion and refertilization after an earlier high pressure (garnet field) melting event before upwelling and remelting beneath the present-day ridge. The ultra-depleted compositions were acquired through melt re-equilibration with residual harzburgites. Electronic supplementary material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at and is accessible for authorized users.     

Archaean high-K granitoids produced by remelting of earlier Tonalite–Trondhjemite–Granodiorite (TTG) in the Sangmelima region of the Ntem complex of the Congo craton,southern Cameroon

We present a geochemical and isotopic study that, consistent with observed field relations, suggest Sangmelima late Archaean high-K granite was derived by partial melting of older Archaean TTG. The TTG formations are sodic-trondhjemitic, showing calcic and calc-alkalic trends and are metaluminous to peraluminous. High-K granites in contrast show a potassic calc-alkaline affinity that spans the calcic, calc-alkalic, alkali-calcic and alkalic compositions. The two rock groups (TTG and high-K granites) on the other hand are both ferroan and magnesian. They have a similar degree of fractionation for LREE but a different one for HREE. Nd model ages and Sr/Y ratios define Mesoarchaean and slab-mantle derived magma compositions respectively, with Nb and Ti anomalies indicating a subduction setting for the TTG. Major and trace element in addition to Sr and Nd isotopic compositions support field observations that indicate the derivation of the high-K granitic group from the partial melting of the older TTG equivalent at depth. Geochemical characteristics of the high-K granitic group are therefore inherited features from the TTG protolith and cannot be used for determining their tectonic setting. The heat budget required for TTG partial melting is ascribed to the upwelling of the mantle marked by a doleritic event of identical age as the generated high-K granite melts. The cause of this upwelling is related to linear delamination along mega-shear zones in an intracontinental setting.     

Lithosphere formation in the central Slave Craton (Canada): plume subcretion or lithosphere accretion?

Major-element compositions of minerals in peridotite xenoliths from the Lac de Gras kimberlites provide constraints on the mode of lithosphere formation beneath the central Slave Craton, Canada. Magnesia contents of reconstructed whole rocks correlate positively with NiO and negatively with CaO contents, consistent with variable partial melt extraction. Alumina and Cr₂O₃ contents are broadly positively correlated, suggestive of melt depletion in the absence of a Cr–Al phase. Garnet modes are high at a given Al₂O₃ content (a proxy for melt depletion), falling about a 7 GPa melt depletion model. These observations, combined with high olivine Mg# and major-element relationships of FeO-poor peridotites (<7.5 wt%) indicative of melt loss at pressures >3 GPa (residual FeO content being a sensitive indicator of melt extraction pressure), and similar high pressures of last equilibration (∼4.2 to 5.8 GPa), provide multiple lines of evidence that the mantle beneath the central Slave Craton has originated as a residue from high-pressure melting, possibly during plume subcretion. Apparent low melt depletion pressures for high-FeO peridotites (>7.5 wt%) could suggest formation in an oceanic setting, followed by subduction to their depth of entrainment. However, these rocks, which are characterised by low SiO₂ contents (<43 wt%), are more likely to be the result of post-melting FeO-addition, leading to spuriously low estimates of melt extraction pressures. They may have reacted with a silica-undersaturated melt that dissolved orthopyroxene, or experienced olivine injection by crystallising melts. A secular FeO-enrichment of parts of the deep mantle lithosphere is supported by lower average Mg# in xenolithic olivine (91.7) compared to olivine inclusions in diamond (92.6).     

A level-set corrector to an adaptive multiscale permeability prediction

We consider the inverse problem of permeability estimation for two-phase porous-media flow. The novel approach is based on regularization by zonation, where the geometry and size of the regions are chosen adaptively during the optimization procedure. To achieve this, we have utilized level-set functions to represent the permeability. The available data are sparsely distributed in space; hence, it is reasonable to confine the estimation to coarse-scale structures. The level-set approach is able to alter the boundaries between regions of different permeability without strict restrictions on their shape; however, when the data are sparse, a reasonable initial guess for the permeability is required. For this task, we use adaptive multiscale permeability estimation, which has the potential of identifying main permeability variations. These are described by a piecewise constant function, where the constant values are attained on rectangular zones. In the current work, we develop a level-set corrector strategy, assuming adaptive multiscale permeability estimation as a predictor.     

Roughness control on hydraulic conductivity in fractured rocks

The influence of joint roughness on the typologies of fluid flow inside fractures is well known and, thanks to experiences in the field of hydraulics, it has been studied from both a physical and mathematical point of view. Nevertheless, the formulations adopted by traditional hydraulic models are hardly applicable in the geological field, because of the difficulty encountered in the roughness parameter estimation. Normally this parameter can be estimated using the joint roughness coefficient (JRC), which considers both the asperity height and its regularity and directional trend. The main advantage in using the JRC arises from the fact that it can easily be obtained from geological-technical surveys and from comparison with the standard Barton profiles. Some relationships have been built up that allow for the estimation of the hydraulic conductivity tensor (an essential parameter for understanding water flow in fractured rock masses), not only as a function of traditional parameters like aperture, spacing, dip and dip direction, etc., but also of joint roughness, precisely expressed in terms of the roughness coefficient. These relationships have been studied initially from a theoretical point of view and then practically, through laboratory investigations.

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Resumen  Se conoce muy bien la influencia de la rugosidad de las grietas en las tipologías del flujo de fluidos a lo interior de las fracturas y gracias a las experiencias en el campo de hidráulica ha sido posible estudiarla desde puntos de vista matemáticos y físicos. Sin embargo, las formulaciones adoptadas por los modelos hidráulicos tradicionales tienen poca aplicabilidad en el campo geológico debido a la dificultad relacionada con la estimación del parámetro de rugosidad. Normalmente este parámetro puede estimarse usando el coeficiente de rugosidad de grieta (JRC) el cual considera tanto la altura de la aspereza como su regularidad y tendencia direccional. La principal ventaja de utilizar el JRC se deriva del hecho que puede obtenerse fácilmente de levantamientos técnico-geológicos y de la comparación con los perfiles Standard Barton. Se han construido algunas relaciones que permiten la estimación del tensor de conductividad hidráulica (un parámetro esencial para el entendimiento del flujo de agua en masas de roca fracturadas), no solo en función de parámetros tradicionales como apertura, espaciado, buzamiento y dirección de buzamiento, etc., sino también en función de la rugosidad de la grieta estimada con precisión en términos del coeficiente de rugosidad. Estas relaciones se han estudiado inicialmente desde un punto de vista teórico y luego de modo práctico a través de investigaciones de laboratorio.

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Résumé  L’influence de la rugosité des joints sur les types d’écoulement de fluide dans les fractures est bien connue et a été étudiée aussi bien du point de vue physique que mathématique grace à des expériences menées dans le domaine de l’hydraulique. Cependant les formulations adoptées dans les modèles hydrauliques traditionnels sont difficilement applicables dans le domaine de la géologie à cause de la difficulté rencontrée pour estimer la rugosité. Ce paramètre peut normalement être apprécié grace au coefficient de rugosité du joint (JRC), lequel prend en compte à la fois la hauteur de l’aspérité ainsi que sa régularité et sa direction. Le principal avantage dans l’utilisation du JRC réside dans le fait qu’il peut facilement être obtenu à partir d’études techniques-géologiques et par comparaison avec la classification de Barton. Des relations qui permettent une estimation du tenseur de conductivité hydraulique (un paramètre essentiel pour comprendre l’écoulement de l’eau dans les masses rocheuses fracturées) ont été élaborées, pas seulement en fonction de paramètres traditionnels tels que l’ouverture, l’espacement, l’inclinaison et la direction d’inclinaison, etc , mais aussi en prenant en compte la rugosité des joints à travers le coefficient de rugosité. Ces relations ont initialement été étudiées d’un point de vue théorique puis expérimentalement à travers des recherches en laboratoire.

     

A coupling of mixed and continuous Galerkin finite element methods for poroelasticity I: the continuous in time case

In this paper, we formulate a finite element procedure for approximating the coupled fluid and mechanics in Biot’s consolidation model of poroelasticity. Here, we approximate the pressure by a mixed finite element method and the displacements by a Galerkin method. Theoretical convergence error estimates are derived in a continuous in-time setting for a strictly positive constrained specific storage coefficient. Of particular interest is the case when the lowest-order Raviart–Thomas approximating space or cell-centered finite differences are used in the mixed formulation, and continuous piecewise linear approximations are used for displacements. This approach appears to be the one most frequently applied to existing reservoir engineering simulators.     

Zircon LA-ICP-MS U-Pb dating and Sr-Nd isotope study of the Guposhan granite complex, Guangxi, China

Zircon U-Pb dating by the LA-ICP-MS method was applied to determining the ages of different units of the Guposhan granite complex, among which the East Guposhan unit is 160.8±1.6 Ma, the West Guposhan unit is 165.0±1.9 Ma, and the Lisong unit is 163.0±1.3 Ma in age. Much similarity in ages of the three units has thus proved that the whole Guposhan granite complex was formed in the same period of time. They were the products of large-scale granitic magmatism through crust-remelting in the first stage of the Middle Yanshanian in South China. However, the three units have differences both in petrology and in geochemistry. Besides the differences in major, trace and rare-earth elements, they are distinct in their Rb-Sr and Sm-Nd isotopic compositions. The East Guposhan unit and Lisong unit and its enclaves have a similar (87Sr/86Sr)i value of 0.7064 with an average of εNd(t)=-3.03, indicating that more mantle material was evolved in the magma derivation; whereas the West Guposhan unit has a higher (87Sr/86Sr)i value of 0.7173 but a lower εNd(t) value of -5.00, and is characterized by strong negative Eu anomalies and higher Rb/Sr ratios, suggesting that its source materials were composed of relatively old crust components and new mantle-derived components. In addition, an inherited zircon grain in the East Guposhan unit (GP-1) yielded a 206Pb/238U age of 806.4 Ma, which is similar to the ages of the Jiulin cordierite granite in northern Jiangxi and of the Yinqiao migmatic granite in Guangxi in the HZH granite zone. All this may provide new evidence for Late Proterozoic magmatism in the HZH granite zone.     

Cenozoic volcanic rocks in the Belog Co area, Qiangtang, northern Tibet, China： Petrochemical evidence for partial melting of the mantle-crust transition zone

Neogene volcanic rocks in the Belog Co area, Qiangtang, northern Tibet, are represented by a typical intermediate-basic and intermediate alkaline rock association, with latite-trachyte as the main rock type. The results of chemical analysis are: SiO2=52%–62%, Al2O3>15%, Na2O/K2O>1 and MgO<3.30%. In addition, the volcanic rocks are LREE-enriched with LREE/HREE=10–13, (La/Yb)N=15–19, and show a weak negative Eu anomaly with δEu=0.71–0.89. The close relationship between Mg# and SiO2 and the co-variation of the magmatophile elements and ultra-magmatophile elements such as La/Sm-La and Cr-Tb indicate that this association of volcanic rocks is the product of comagmatic fractional crystallization. The rock association type and lower Sm/Yb values (Sm/Yb=3.23–3.97) imply that this association of volcanic rocks should have originated from partial melting of spinel lherzolite in the lithospheric mantle. On the other hand, the weak negative Eu anomaly and relative depletion in Nb, Ta and Ti reflect the features of terrigenous magma. So the Neogene Belog Co alkaline volcanic rocks should be the result of partial melting of the special crust-mantle transition zone on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.