基于STIRPAT模型分析C02控制下上海城市发展模式

随着经济的快速发展,中国CO2排放量不断增加,研究中国各大城市采取何种发展模式.减缓CO2的排放量,成为当前研究热点.利用STIRPAT模型,定量分析了CO2排放量与人口、富裕度、城市化水平和技术进步之间的关系,并经岭回归拟合发现人口数量、人均GDP、城市化水平和技术进步每发生1%的变化,将引起CO2排放总量相应发生0.618%、(0.178+0.0091nA)%、0.816%和0.264%的变化.在上述研究的基础上,以上海市为例,通过设置10种不同的发展情景,分析了在何种情景下最有利于减缓CO2的排放.结果表明,当经济、人口保持中速增长,城市化率进程放缓而节能减排技术取得较大进步时,上海市最有利于减缓CO2排放最,此时上海市2010年、2015年和2020年C02排放量分别为17053.57万t、19286.64万t和20885.69万t.     

高光谱遥感土地质量指标信息提取研究进展

高光谱遥感技术已成为提取土地质量指标的前沿技术之一。该文回顾了国内外高光谱遥感技术在土地质量指标提取中的研究进展,总结归纳了作为土地生态系统载体的土壤属性质量指标和反映生态系统结构功能的质量指标中的土壤有机质、全氮、土壤水分、铁氧化物、土壤重金属、土壤质地、土壤盐分、植被覆盖度、生物量、指示种10个指标的提取、敏感波段选择与反演方法,指出研究中存在的问题,最后展望了高光谱遥感技术在土地质量指标提取研究中的应用前景。     

A classification system for the assessment of slope stability of terrains along highway routes in Jordan

 The establishment of comprehensive development plans, in general, and the proper selection of highway routes, in particular, require an assessment of landslides or instability hazards in the project sites. The frequent landslides that occurred along the routes of major highways in Jordan, and particularly along the Amman-Na'ur-Dead Sea highway and Irbid-Jerash-Amman highway, have substantially increased the cost of construction and caused a considerable delay in the completion of work. The study of many landslides that occurred in the last 25 years along the highway routes and in the sites of some major civil engineering projects in Jordan has led to the recognition of major factors that affect the stability of slopes, and thus the safety and economics of these projects. The geological formation, structural features, topographic characteristics, geometry, and climatic conditions were adopted as the basis for the classification of terrains in terms of their stability. Each factor has been assigned a rating to indicate its relative contribution to the overall stability according to engineering judgment and past experience. The areas have been classified into 5 groups according to their total stability rate. The simplicity, comprehensiveness, and accuracy are the main characteristics of the proposed classification. Its significance stems from its helpfulness as a guide to the geotechnical and highway engineers in assessing the overall stability of the alternative routes of proposed highway projects. Received: 3 December 1996 · Accepted: 29 April 1997     

南海西沙海槽地区的海底热流测量

为了解南海西沙海槽区的地热特征,利用Ewing型地热探针在该区开展了地热测量,并利用TK04热导率仪测量了相关站位表层沉积物样品的热导率,获得了7个站位的热流数据。结果表明,研究区7个站位的热导率变化范围为0.88~1.06 W/m.K,平均为0.96 W/m.K,地温梯度变化范围为85~120℃/km,热流值变化范围为83~112 mW/m2,平均达到95 mW/m2。分析表明测量结果与20世纪80年代中美合作在西沙海槽的地热测量结果一致性较好,说明研究区仍具有高热流特征,推测高热流特征可能与本区高热背景、莫霍面埋深较浅、断裂发育、晚期岩浆活动和基底起伏等有关。     

Computer Simulation of Shaped Charge Detonation Using Meshless Particle Method

Shaped charges are widely applied in the defense industry and civil engineering for penetrating hardened targets. Simulations of shaped charges are generally based on traditional grid-based numerical methods. Different from the existing literature, the SPH method is applied in this paper to simulate the detonation process of shaped charge explosive. The combination of the meshless, Lagrangian and particle nature inherent in the SPH method is very attractive in dealing with large deformations and large inhomogeneities in extremely transient situations such as detonation process. The SPH method and some related numerical aspects are briefly discussed first, followed by applications in simulating shaped charge detonations. The effects of different detonation cavity angles and different charge head lengths are investigated. The results demonstrate that major shaped charge detonation phenomena are captured with revealing observations.     

Some factors influencing variations in the rate of natural increase of population in western Maharashtra

This paper analyzes the impact of various factors on variations in the rate of natural increase of population in Western Maharashtra, India. By using district level data, coefficients of correlation have been calculated between the rate of natural increase, the birth rate and the death rate on the 1 hand and different factors affecting them on the other. The analysis shows that in Western Maharashtra the birth rate is high in response to the high death rate and the high infant mortality rate. It is also revealed that the rate of natural increase of the population declines with an increase in the proportion of working females as well as the proportion of educated males. All this signifies that the region under study is in the 2nd stage of the "demographic transition."     

不确定性理论集对分析在沙尘暴预报中的应用研究

应用集对分析（SPA）这一关于不确定性问题的数学理论和方法,基于概率统计分析,从SPA的同、异、反分析出发,用联系度公式导出解决预报中合理地使用预报因子的方法,实现预报模型因子结构的动态优化,增强模型预报机制的合理性,达到提高模型预报能力的目的。在以往对沙尘暴研究成果的基础上,以强风、热力和沙源三大影响因子为着眼点,结合2001\_2003年的沙尘暴天气个例,对沙尘暴天气进行了分类,分别选取预报因子,建立基于SPA的沙尘暴预报模型。根据数值预报产品输出结果,于2004年春季进行了短期（24 h）预报试用,结果表明,这一方法具有较好的效果。     

Mechanical shaking and soil water affect the growth of Psammochloa villosa in the Mu Us Sandland

The Mu Us Sandland is basically characterized by water shortage and high wind. Thus, wind-induced mechanical perturbation (MP) and soil water availability are likely to interact to affect plant growth. Since high water availability and MP can induce responses that are in the opposite direction, we hypothesized that MP effects on perennial grasses might be mitigated by increased soil water availability in the Mu Us Sandland. We counducted an experiment in which seedlings of Psammochloa villosa were subjected to two levels of MP (non-MP vs. MP 1 min d⁻¹) and two levels of water availability (200 ml d⁻¹vs. 400 ml d⁻¹) and measured three plant traits. MP significantly decreased plant height, total biomass, and root/shoot ratio. There were significant interactions between MP and soil water availability on plant height and root/shoot ratio. These findings imply that MP alone is a stressful factor for P. villosa and MP effects on its growth can be partially mitigated by increased soil water availability, and also suggest that P. villosa may respond to MP in a way that allows plants to survive in the windy semiarid environments.     

The Variscan tectonic inheritance of the Upper Rhine Graben: evidence of reactivations in the Lias,Late Eocene–Oligocene up to the recent

Processing of gravity and magnetic maps shows that the basement of the Upper Rhine Graben area is characterized by a series of NE–SW trending discontinuities and elongated structures, identified in outcrops in the Vosges, Black Forest, and the Odenwald Mountains. They form a 40 km wide, N30–40° striking, sinistral wrench-zone that, in the Visean, shifted the Variscan and pre-Variscan structures by at least 43 km to the NE. Wrenching was associated with emplacement of several generations of plutonic bodies emplaced in the time range 340–325 Ma. The sub-vertical, NE–SW trending discontinuities in the basement acted as zones of weakness, susceptible to reactivation by subsequent tectonism. The first reactivation, marked by mineralizations and palaeomagnetic overprinting along NE–SW faults of the Vosges Mountains, results from the Liassic NW–SE extension contemporaneous with the break-up of Pangea. The major reactivation occurred during the Late Eocene N–S compression and the Early-Middle Oligocene E–W extension. The NE–SW striking basement discontinuities were successively reactivated as sinistral strike-slip faults, and as oblique normal faults. Elongated depocenters appear to form in association with reactivated Variscan wrench faults. Some of the recent earthquakes are located on NE–SW striking Variscan fault zones, and show sinistral strike-slip focal mechanisms with the same direction, suggesting also present reactivation.     

中国乡村旅游发展综述

乡村旅游是以农业为基础,以旅游为目的,以服务为手段,以城市居民为目标,第一产业和第三产业相结合的新型产业.乡村旅游可以合理开发城市边缘区景观生态资源,发展城郊生态旅游,实现城市和乡村优势互补、协调发展.乡村旅游在中国先后经历了早期兴起阶段、初期发展阶段和规范经营阶段,从最初的资源特色主导、农业产业主导和政府扶持主导过渡到了现今的市场主导.本文基于乡村旅游的产生背景和概念特征,对中国乡村旅游的发展进行了全面论述,分析了乡村旅游的发展现状和主要模式,并针对当前存在的主要问题提出了相应的发展对策,最后对乡村旅游的发展前景进行了展望,以期能用以指导未来中国乡村旅游的可持续发展.