基于多模式集成技术的地面气温精细化预报

基于ECMWF、JMA、T639、WRF四个数值模式2012年6月1日—9月30日地面气温3—60 h预报资料和郑州加密自动站资料,利用多模式集合平均(EMN)、消除偏差集合平均(BREM)、加权消除偏差集合(WBREM)及多模式超级集合(SUP)4种方法,对2012年8月29日—9月27日郑州城区11个站点地面逐3 h气温进行多模式集成预报试验,采用绝对误差对预报结果进行检验评估,结果表明:在30天的预报期内,BREM、WBREM及SUP对于大多数站气温预报效果有明显改善,而EMN方案对11个站预报效果改善则不太明显;4种方案中,BREM和WBREM预报效果相对较好且稳定,各个站上3—60 h预报的绝对误差均在2℃附近或以下;SUP方案虽然对个别站预报误差较低,但是其预报效果并不稳定,一些站点的个别预报时效误差大于2℃。对于郑州观测站的气温预报而言,4种集成方案20时起报的气温误差明显小于08时起报的误差,并且20时起报的SUP集成方案绝对误差明显小于其他方案的绝对误差。总体而言,BREM、WBREM及SUP三种集成方案能够给郑州精细化预报业务提供较好的参考。     

2007年夏季江淮强降水过程中10~30d低频变化及其与对流层上层波包活动的联系

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析和全国740站逐日降水资料,运用一点滞后相关等方法,对2007年夏季江淮流域强降水期间低频振荡的波动活动特征及其与降水低频变化的联系进行了分析。结果表明,在2007年夏季降水中,降水低频分量起着重要作用。降水的低频振荡主周期为10~30d,降水距平时间序列与10~30d低频分量具有较好的对应关系。低频扰动在对流层上层和低层都呈现波列状分布,且在降水活跃位相时,低频环流在高、低层具有斜压结构。在对流层上层,低频扰动有缓慢的东移倾向,相速度为每天2~3个经度。西风带中存在多次移动性波列向下游的传播,且在120°E以西以每天14经度的群速度向下游频散能量,表明10~30d低频波动具有明显的下游发展特征。在强降水开始5d前,低频波动与能量可起源于高纬的乌拉尔山附近,沿着西北-东南向的路径向下游传播。下游发展的低频波动为江淮流域带来了能量,为强降水的发生提供了条件。这些结果加深了人们对低频波动在江淮流域强降水过程中所起作用的认识,可为寻找江淮流域强降水过程预报线索提供科学依据。     

准噶尔盆地油气源、油气分布与油气系统

准噶尔盆地是中国西部典型的多旋回叠合盆地,发育有石炭系、二叠系、三叠系、侏罗系、白垩系和古近系6套烃源岩,同时存在6大类原油和3大类天然气,广泛分布于盆地不同地区。西北缘原油总体相似,碳同位素组成轻(δ~(13)C-29‰),胡萝卜烷、类异戊二烯烷烃、三环萜烷、伽马蜡烷丰富,甾烷以C_(28)、C_(29)为主,基本没有重排甾烷,为第二类原油,来源于二叠系湖相烃源岩。腹部绝大多数原油与西北缘原油相似,但胡萝卜烷、类异戊二烯烷烃、伽马蜡烷等有差异,来源于不同凹陷的二叠系湖相烃源岩;少量原油碳同位素组成重(δ~(13)C-28‰~-26‰),Pr/Ph大于2.5,三环萜烷以C_(19)、C_(20)为主,藿烷丰富而伽马蜡烷极低,以C_(29)规则甾烷及重排甾烷为主,为第四类原油,来源于侏罗系煤系烃源岩。东部存在5种类型原油,第一类原油碳同位素组成特别重(δ~(13)C-26‰),来源于石炭系烃源岩;第二类原油与腹部地区绝大多数原油十分相似,来源于二叠系湖相烃源岩;第三类原油碳同位索组成轻,重排甾烷、Ts、C_(29)Ts及C_(30)重排藿烷异常丰富,来源于中上三叠统湖相烃源岩;第四类原油源于侏罗系煤系烃源岩;混合类原油为二叠系、三叠系、侏罗系原油的混合,各自贡献平均分别为20%、15%和65%。南缘存在4类典型原油,为第二、第四、第五和第六类原油,其中第二、第四类分别源于二叠系和侏罗系;第五类原油碳同位素组成轻(δ~(13)C-29‰)、Pr/Ph1.0、伽马蜡烷丰富且有两个异构体、Ts、C_(29)Ts、C_(30)重排藿烷、C_(27)~C_(29)异胆甾烷及C_(30)甲基甾烷丰富,来源于白垩系湖相烃源岩;第六类原油主要为中低成熟原油,碳同位素组成δ~(13)C~28‰~-26‰,C_(27)、C_(28)、C_(29)甾烷呈"V"型分布,甲藻甾烷异常丰富,来源于古近系湖相烃源岩。准噶尔盆地天然气有油型气、混合气和煤型气,前两类主要来源于二叠系湖相烃源岩和石炭系海相烃源岩,煤型气主要来源于石炭系和侏罗系煤系烃源岩。不同类型油气分布与不同时代烃源灶具有良好对应关系:石炭系油气主要分布于陆东-五彩湾;二叠系油气主要分布于西北缘、腹部与东部;三叠系原油仅分布于东部;侏罗系原油主要分布于东部与南部;白垩系原油仅分布于南缘中部;古近系原油仅分布于南缘西部。按照盆地构造特征及不同时代烃源灶与油气关系,将准噶尔盆地划分为西部、中部、东部、南部及乌伦古5个油气系统及15个子油气系统。     

浅水多波束系统SONIC 2024在码头测深中的应用

文中介绍浅水多波束系统SONIC 2024的技术优点,从姿态参数校正、潮汐改正、声速改正、测线滤波及曲面滤波等方面探讨多波束数据处理的关键技术。以码头实测数据验证该系统在水深测量应用中的便捷性和可靠性。     

塔西台地寒武纪沉积环境演化与海陆耦合

碳酸盐岩台地作为陆地与深海间的过渡带,其沉积记录了海洋和邻近陆地的演化。结合已有的沉积学工作,对塔里木盆地西部台地寒武系碳酸盐岩进行全岩及酸不溶物地球化学研究。塔西台地寒武纪主要发育局限台地、局限-蒸发台地或蒸发台地相沉积。碳酸盐岩的地球化学特征主要受沉积环境和成岩作用影响,对研究区寒武系白云岩来说,其元素组成极易受沉积微相的控制,氧同位素组成则很可能已被成岩作用改造,仅原生、准同生白云岩的Sr/Ba、Fe/Mn和C同位素可反映沉积相演化对应的古盐度、离岸距离等沉积环境特征的变化,酸不溶物化学蚀变指数（CIA值）则指示邻近陆地的化学风化强度与气候特征。寒武纪时期,塔西台地在相对海平面较高时发育局限台地相沉积,以水体盐度较低、沉积环境离岸较远和生物活动相对较弱为特征,陆地化学风化强度适中,气候温暖湿润;在相对海平面较低时发育蒸发台地相沉积,具有水体盐度较高、沉积环境离岸较近和生物活动相对较强等特点,陆地化学风化强烈,气候炎热极端;在相对海平面适中时发育局限-蒸发台地,沉积环境和邻近陆地的特征介于前述二者之间。沉积相演化对应的较长周期的海陆演化可能主要受全球海平面升降及宏观气候变化控制,具体表现为相对海平面升降所导致的海相沉积环境的变化,以及气候变化引起的陆地化学风化强度的变化。寒武纪塔西台地所处区域的海洋-陆地演化具有高度耦合的特征。     

The Electrical Conductivity Structure of the Lanping–Simao Basin and its Implications for Mineralization

正Objective The Lanping–Simao Basin in western Yunnan,located in the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau,is tectonically in the transition zone between the Gondwana and Eurasia tectonic domains.It is also the frontier zone of northeastern extrusion of the Indochina Plate towards the     

Shale Gas Formation and Occurrence in China: An Overview of the Current Status and Future Potential

Shale gas is one of the most promising unconventional resources both in China and abroad. It is known as a form of self-contained source-reservoir system with large and continuous dimensions. Through years of considerable exploration efforts, China has identified three large shale gas fields in the Fuling, Changning and Weiyuan areas of the Sichuan Basin, and has announced more than 540 billion m~3 of proven shale gas reserves in marine shale systems. The geological theories for shale gas development have progressed rapidly in China as well. For example, the new depositional patterns have been introduced for deciphering the paleogeography and sedimentary systems of the Wufeng shale and Longmaxi shale in the Sichuan Basin. The shale gas storage mechanism has been widely accepted as differing from conventional natural gas in that it is adsorbed on organic matter or a mineral surface or occurs as free gas trapped in pores and fractures of the shale. Significant advances in the techniques of microstructural characterization have provided new insights on how gas molecules are stored in micro- and nano-scale porous shales. Furthermore, newly-developed concepts and practices in the petroleum industry, such as hydraulic fracturing, microseismic monitoring and multiwell horizontal drilling, have made the production of this unevenly distributed but promising unconventional natural gas a reality. China has 10–36 trillion m~3 of promising shale gas among the world's whole predicted technically recoverable reserves of 206.6 trillion m~3. China is on the way to achieving its goal of an annual yield of 30–50 billion m~3 by launching more trials within shale gas projects.     

Characteristics and Origin of Tight Oil Accumulations in the Upper Triassic Yanchang Formation of the Ordos Basin, North-Central China

The Upper Triassic oil accumulations in the Ordos Basin is the most successful tight oil play in China,with average porosity values of less than 10% and permeability values below 1.0 mD.This study investigated the geological characteristics and origin of the tight oil accumulations in the Chang 6 member of the Upper Triassic Yanchang Formation in the Shanbei area based on over 50,000 petrological,source-rock analysis,well logging and production data.The tight oil accumulation of the Chang 6 member is distributed continuously in the basin slope and the centre of the basin.The oilwater relationships are complex.Laumontite dissolution pores are the most important storage spaces,constituting 30%-60% of total porosity and showing a strong positive relationship with oil production.The pore-throat diameter is less than 1 μm,and the calculated critical height of the oil column is much larger than the tight sand thickness,suggesting that the buoyancy was probably of limited importance for oil migration.The pressure difference between the source rocks and sandstone reservoirs is inferred to have provided driving force for hydrocarbon migration.Two factors of source-reservoir configuration and laumontite dissolution contributed to the formation of the Chang 6 tight oil accumulations.Intense hydrocarbon generation and continuous sand bodies close to the hydrocarbon kitchen are the foundation for the large-scale oil distribution.Dissolution of feldspar-laumontite during the process of organic matter evolution generated abundant secondary pores and improved the reservoir quality.     

云南姚安铅银矿床假白榴石斑岩空间分布和组构特征

姚安铅银矿床位于金沙江-哀牢山断裂带东侧的富碱斑岩带内,主要发育正长斑岩、粗面岩、假白榴石斑岩、含斑正长细晶岩等一套杂岩体,其中正长斑岩为主要容矿围岩。通过野外地质勘查、显微镜鉴定、电子探针及X射线微区衍射分析,对假白榴石斑岩的空间分布、岩石矿物学特征进行了综合研究,结果表明,姚安铅银矿床假白榴石斑岩多以脉状、角砾状或呈小岩枝产出,出露在正长斑岩质火山角砾岩的外围,主要分布在角砾岩型铅银矿(化)体的南西侧、F4断裂的北东盘,在空间上与角砾岩筒及外围断裂有关;该矿床的假白榴石具两个世代,早期为灰绿色浑圆粒状假白榴石斑岩的假白榴石斑晶,富Al,晚期为灰-灰白色四角三八面体假白榴石斑岩的假白榴石斑晶,富Si、Na,二者均蚀变成钾长石、高岭石、石英等含水富硅矿物;姚安假白榴石斑岩形成于印度板块与欧亚大陆俯冲碰撞后的板内拉张环境;假白榴石斑岩形成晚于粗面岩、正长斑岩,早于含斑正长细晶岩;假白榴石斑岩与铅银矿(化)体无直接成因联系。