平原水库供水水源系统可靠性及风险分析方法

本文通过建立模糊带权马尔柯夫链模型,预测径流量未来的丰枯变化情况,评价运行期供水水源系统的可靠性。以供水工程承担的供水外来负荷大于工程本身的承载能力的概率定义了平原水库供水水源系统的风险,阐述了供水水源系统风险分析及模拟方法。     

判别分析法在农业旱情识别中的应用

在本文中,作者提出了利用数理统计学中的判别分析法,来进行农业旱情识别的方法,该方法从水文和气象对水量进行识别,以水文、气象和作物受旱三个方面综合起来对农业旱情进行识别。在邵阳市农业干旱研究中应用了判别分析法对当地的农业旱情进行了识别,识别结果与实际情况较为符合。该方法为农业旱情识别提供了一种新的途径。     

不同产地绿松石无损检测及岩相结构特征研究

概述了绿松石的使用历史和产地来源。利用质子激发X射线荧光光谱（PIXE）、X射线衍射（XRD）及扫描电镜（SEM）技术对来自伊朗、湖北郧县和西藏等地的绿松石样品进行岩石矿物学特征分析，从成分组成方面探讨绿松石的呈色机理。结果显示，不同产地、不同质地绿松石的成分组成存在较大差别，但主成分含量基本一致；绿松石的颜色主要由其中CuO和Fe2O3的含量比值变化决定，比值由大至小，实现了绿松石颜色由天蓝色到绿色的转变。     

Ultrahigh-pressure eclogite transformed from mafic granulite in the Dabie orogen, east-central China

Although ultrahigh‐pressure (UHP) metamorphic rocks are present in many collisional orogenic belts, almost all exposed UHP metamorphic rocks are subducted upper or felsic lower continental crust with minor mafic boudins. Eclogites formed by subduction of mafic lower continental crust have not been identified yet. Here an eclogite occurrence that formed during subduction of the mafic lower continental crust in the Dabie orogen, east‐central China is reported. At least four generations of metamorphic mineral assemblages can be discerned: (i) hypersthene + plagioclase ± garnet; (ii) omphacite + garnet + rutile + quartz; (iii) symplectite stage of garnet + diopside + hypersthene + ilmenite + plagioclase; (iv) amphibole + plagioclase + magnetite, which correspond to four metamorphic stages: (a) an early granulite facies, (b) eclogite facies, (c) retrograde metamorphism of high‐pressure granulite facies and (d) retrograde metamorphism of amphibolite facies. Mineral inclusion assemblages and cathodoluminescence images show that zircon is characterized by distinctive domains of core and a thin overgrowth rim. The zircon core domains are classified into two types: the first is igneous with clear oscillatory zonation ± apatite and quartz inclusions; and the second is metamorphic containing a granulite facies mineral assemblage of garnet, hypersthene and plagioclase (andesine). The zircon rims contain garnet, omphacite and rutile inclusions, indicating a metamorphic overgrowth at eclogite facies. The almost identical ages of the two types of core domains (magmatic = 791 ± 9 Ma and granulite facies metamorphic zircon = 794 ± 10 Ma), and the Triassic age (212 ± 10 Ma) of eclogitic facies metamorphic overgrowth zircon rim are interpreted as indicating that the protolith of the eclogite is mafic granulite that originated from underplating of mantle‐derived magma onto the base of continental crust during the Neoproterozoic (c. 800 Ma) and then subducted during the Triassic, experiencing UHP eclogite facies metamorphism at mantle depths. The new finding has two‐fold significance: (i) voluminous mafic lower continental crust can increase the average density of subducted continental lithosphere, thus promoting its deep subduction; (ii) because of the current absence of mafic lower continental crust in the Dabie orogen, delamination or recycling of subducted mafic lower continental crust can be inferred as the geochemical cause for the mantle heterogeneity and the unusually evolved crustal composition.     

南岭稀土花岗岩、钨锡花岗岩及其成矿作用的对比

南岭地区的钨锡和稀土矿床都与花岗岩类有直接成因联系,但二者的成矿作用有许多不同之处.钨锡是典型的热液成矿,而稀土则主要形成于风化作用.随着花岗岩类的分异演化,岩石中的W、Sn等元素含量逐渐增加,因此钨锡等矿床主要与高度分异演化的晚阶段小岩体有关;但是稀土的表现与钨锡不同,由于花岗岩类的分异演化导致稀土栽体黑云母及许多副矿物的减少,因此稀土元素含量在晚阶段岩体中反而降低.赣南的五里亭-大吉山岩体、桂东北的花山-姑婆山岩体等提供了很好的范例.因此,南岭地区与风化壳型稀土矿床有关的岩石主要有:印支期准铝质花岗岩,燕山期A型花岗岩,燕山中-晚期黑云母二长花岗岩等.     

基于灰色系统的黄龙钙华景观演化研究

黄龙的景观是在数万年的岩溶地质作用下的产物。近年来黄龙钙华出现了干涸、变黑、沙化等现象严重地影响了景观的观赏性。水资源在黄龙钙华发展变化中起着重要的作用，笔者通过收集并分析黄龙地区的监测数据，针对监测系统不健全．时序数据缺乏的特点，选用对时序数据要求不高、预测效果较好的灰色系统模型，以岩溶水体的pH值为指标预测了钙华未来的发展情况。采用地质统计学空间分析的克里金插值法，对预测结果进行插值获得了整个景区的钙华预测结果。笔者按pH值将钙华演化情况划为强侵蚀、弱侵蚀、堆积3种类型，指出黄龙钙华景观目前正处于动态平衡与消亡重组阶段。     

STUDY ON THE CAUSE OF HEAVY RAIN 200506 （HR200506） IN GUANGDONG

A continuous heavy rain visited Guangdong province during June 18-25, 2005 (named Heavy Rain 200506, HR200506) and had resulted in enormous economic loss. The ageostropic Q vectors, θse,meridional circulation, computed from the NCEP reanalysis, and TBB are used to study the rainfall processes. The results indicated that a convective system moved northwards from the South China Sea (SCS)and stayed in Guangdong for several days, which was a direct cause of HR200506. The process is a result of the activity of the South China Sea summer monsoon. There were two rainbands of HR200506 in Guangdong. One laid in the north of Guangdong that produced frontal rainfall; another situated on the south of Guangdong which produced monsoon rainfall.     

1480型多普勒天气雷达中尺度气旋识别模块设计

借鉴国内外中尺度气旋识别算法的研究成果特别是NSSL(National Severe Storm Laboratory)的中尺度气旋识别算法,结合多普勒天气雷达二次产品软件的特点,提出了改进的中尺度气旋识别算法,以动态链接库的形式,设计完成了中尺度气旋识别模块.对2002年5月27日安徽省北部地区的一次强对流天气过程的雷达资料进行了分析,并与北京敏视达(METSTAR)雷达有限公司Build 10.8软件系统生成的中尺度气旋产品进行了对比分析,结果表明该模块有比较好的识别能力,预警效果较好.     

南昌市城区暴雨积水的数值模拟

论述了南昌市城市暴雨积水仿真系统的数学原理和开发成果,并应用实况降水对该系统的模拟精度进行测试。结果表明:大多数(62.6%)模拟计算结果的绝对误差在10 cm以内,只有极少数(2.4%)实际积水与模拟结果的误差超过30 cm。暴雨积水等级试验结果表明,中度以上暴雨积水地段的预报准确率达98%,轻度积水和无积水地段的预报准确率达92%。总体来看,暴雨积水趋势(等级)预报基本准确,定量(积水深度)预报有误差,平均相对误差为6%,模型的预测结果与实况基本相符。通过人工给定不同强度的雨量来模拟南昌市两个重点积水地段的积水过程,得到结论:当降水强度达到20 mm/h时,开始产生积水,降水强度超过30 mm/h时将产生严重积水;两个积水点因排水条件不一样,退水时间差异较大。排水条件差的地段,中—大雨需要15 h退完,暴雨需要24 h以上才能退完;在不同降水强度和排水条件下,最大积水深度出现的时间有明显区别;在暴雨情况下,绝大部分(76%)积水点的最大积水深度出现在2~3 h内。此外,讨论了模拟误差产生的原因。     

MODIS与TM冬小麦种植面积遥感测量一致性研究——小区域实验研究

针对大范围冬小麦种植面积遥感测量业务化运行中所存在的不同空间分辨率遥感影像的获取能力、空间分辨率与测量精度之间相互制约的现实问题,选择典型实验区,采取全覆盖的多时相低分辨率MODIS数据与中高分辨率TM样区数据相结合的方法,以支持向量机（SVM）为主要技术手段,通过选取不同比例的TM样本量,对MODIS进行混合像元分解,并对MODIS冬小麦测量结果与TM测量结果进行一致性分析,进而提出了一套可用于大范围冬小麦种植面积遥感测量业务化推广的识别和精度检验方法。研究结果表明：当TM样本量大于5%时,相对于TM识别结果而言,MODIS像元精度可以稳定在82%以上;当TM样本量大于40%时,区域精度可以稳定在97%。因此,从理论上讲,在实际业务化运行中,只要能够获得监测区40%的中高分辨率的影像,采用本研究提出的多尺度冬小麦种植面积测量方法,基本上可以满足业务化运行的精度要求。