BDS轨道完备性监测设计与实现

针对北斗卫星导航系统(BDS)完备性研究较少的现状,该文提出了一种导航星历中轨道观测数据的完备性监测新方法。采用轨道积分方法分析了北斗卫星的轨道残差均方根值;通过概率统计的方法,分别计算所有北斗卫星的轨道残差极限误差值(告警限差),剔除误差超限甚至粗差卫星,实现事后轨道完备性监测。另外通过比较分析剔除监测标记出的误差卫星之前和之后对测站精密单点定位的影响,验证完备性的风险性。最后通过实测数据对该算法进行了验证和分析。实验结果表明:该算法可以实现卫星轨道的监测示警,标记误差卫星,达到轨道完备性监测效果。     

环渤海区域再分析资料地面风速场的适用性对比分析

利用环渤海区域的气象站资料和NCEP/NCAR、NCEP/DOE、CFSR、ERA Interim、JRA-55共5种再分析资料,讨论了再分析资料近地面10 m平均风速场在环渤海区域的适用性问题。结果表明：JRA资料与观测站的相关系数最大,ERA资料与23站均方根误差的平均最小;再分析资料与气象站观测资料的相关系数在山东半岛和辽东半岛高于其他地区、冬半年大于夏半年。环渤海区域地面10 m平均风速场JRA和ERA两套资料的适用性较好。由于ERA-Interim的水平分辨率更高,所以在强风过程分析中确定使用ERA Interim再分析资料。     

Conservation of the Important Agricultural Heritage Systems in the Economically Developed Area：Experiences,Problems and Solutions—A Case Study of Zhejiang Province

Zhejiang Province, located in the Yangtze River Delta region, is representative of China's economically developed areas. It enjoys superior natural conditions and a long history of agriculture, and is a comprehensive agricultural area with integrated development of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. It has nurtured the farming culture represented by Hemudu culture and Liangzhu culture, which have given rise to numerous precious Agricultural Heritage Systems. At present, Zhejiang Province has three of the world’s Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems (GIAHS) and 12 China Nationally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems (China-NIAHS), so it not only has the largest number of heritages in China, but it has also attained remarkable achievements in heritage conservation. Taking Zhejiang Province as an example in combination with the rural revitalization strategy, this paper summarizes the achievements in the protection of Important Agricultural Heritage Systems (IAHS) in Zhejiang Province during the past 15 years from the aspects of increasing farmers’ income, cultural Inheritance and industrial upgrading, as well as the conservation experiences in government promotion, community initiative, enterprise participation, technology driving and social linkage. Further, in view of the problems that exist in the current heritage protection,such as imperfect management of heritage sites, low participation of community residents, lack of special protection funds, and imperfect provincial management system,the following countermeasures and suggestions are put forward: (1) Improve the management mechanism for the conservation and development of Agricultural Heritage Systems; (2) Develop regional public branding of agricultural products in Agricultural Heritage System sites; (3) Increase the Agricultural Heritage System science education as well as cultural and creative product development; (4) Carry out the evaluation and recognition of IAHS at the provincial level; and (5) Provide substantial support and input to the conservation and utilization of IAHS. This study can provide some guidance for the conservation of IAHS in Zhejiang Province and it provides important reference for IAHS in the economically developed areas in China.     

Understanding Agriculture Production and Food Security in Ethiopia from the Perspective of China

Food security and sustainable agricultural development are the hot issues of scientific research, especially after the population affected by hunger surprisingly increased in 2016. Long-lasting and recurrent famines caused by natural disasters and wars have afflicted Ethiopia. Unlike Ethiopia, which is still struggling to achieve food self-sufficiency, China managed to quickly become food self-sufficient at a rapid speed, despite the fact that it also faced the same challenges of famine over the last century. In the backdrop of differing environmental and socio-political challenges the two countries face, comparing the similarities and differences between the two countries will yield important lessons and insights for Ethiopia to follow to achieve food self-sufficiency. Here, the progress towards food security in Ethiopia and China is presented to quantitatively compare the gap of agricultural production between both countries. We found that food production in Ethiopia is heavily constrained by drought, soil degradation, climate change, out-dated agricultural production technologies, and poverty. According to these challenges, we examined corresponding responses in China to propose solutions for achieving food self-sufficiency in Ethiopia, given the realities of its unique national situation.     

Responses of Riverbed Particles to Geomorphologic Processes in Aeolian-Fluvial Action Area: A Case Study of the Heilaigou Basin in Inner Mongolia of China

The Heilaigou basin, located in the Inner Mongolia of China, is predominantly influenced by the aeolian-fluvial actions, with complicated sediment transport conditions on the mainstream riverbed. In order to identify the relationship between sedimentary particles and geomorphic processes, mechanisms for the formation of characteristics of grain size composition were investigated by analyzing grain size parameters and external dynamic geomorphologic features. Firstly, the grain size parameters of the riverbed, stream power, maximum grain size of the wind-blown particles and HI values of the mainstream channel were calculated and analyzed, and they were used to establish multiple regression functions of grain size parameters in order to determine the effects of wind and river actions on particles. The results show that sediments in different reaches are formed in different environments: the upper stream is controlled by fluvial and aeolian processes; the sorting properties of riverbed sediments in the middle stream are worse than those in the upper stream since they are affected mainly by fluvial processes as indicated by the larger stream power there; and the particles on the downstream riverbed are likely contributed by the Kubuqi Desert. The size of particles on the riverbed depends on the hydrodynamic conditions, but is not significantly associated with the evolution of landform. Sorting is significantly related to both the hydrodynamic conditions and wind actions. Riverbed deposits brought in by winds likely become finer from the lower to the upper reaches, which are not coarser than 0.88f. Generally speaking, the stream power has a major effect on sedimentation characteristics of the riverbed, followed by wind power.     

Comprehensive Evaluation of the Suitability of Agricultural Land in Myanmar

Myanmar is a country with an economy based on agriculture. It has rich agricultural resources and great potential for development. The development of agriculture in Myanmar is becoming increasingly important to international food security. Assessments of agricultural land resources in Myanmar are the basis for the country’s agricultural development and for food security evaluations. In this paper we used the MaxEnt model to analyze the relationship between the suitability of land for agricultural reclamation and the main environmental variables in Myanmar, and then constructed a model to comprehensively evaluate the suitability of land for agriculture in Myanmar. The results show that: 1) the overall accuracy of the MaxEnt model is high (AUC>0.8), which means there is a high correlation between the database of selected environmental indicators and the true distribution of cultivated land in Myanmar. 2) Soil depth is the most important factor affecting the suitability of land for agriculture in Myanmar. When the thickness of soil layer is less than 100 cm, the suitability of land for agriculture is low. With respect to topographic conditions, slope is the main factor affecting suitability. When the slope is greater than 20 degrees, the suitability of land for agriculture is low. With respect to climate conditions, precipitation is the main influencing factor. There is a positive correlation between river network density and land suitability. 3) Currently, 400 000 km² of the land resources in Myanmar are suitable for agriculture, and of this amount 290 000 km² are highly suitable, accounting for nearly 40% of the country's land area. The highly suitable land is distributed mainly in Magway, Sagaing, Ayeyarwady and Yangon provinces. The provinces are also important grain production areas in Myanmar, and this serves to validate the effectiveness of the method used in this paper.     

新一代天气雷达布网设计的有效覆盖和地形遮挡分析

一般情况下,地形影响造成的雷达波束遮挡是长期保持不变的。研究雷达地形遮挡情况有助于提升雷达探测资料的有效性和可靠性。利用先进星载热发射和反射辐射仪全球数字高程模型地形数据,对我国已建成的208个新一代天气雷达站点进行地形遮挡分析,计算业务体扫模式(Volume Coverage Pattern modes, VCP)21的九个仰角下200 km范围内雷达反射率的波束阻挡系数,绘制观测仰角分别为0.5°、1. 45°、2. 4°和3. 35°时雷达有效观测区域的覆盖图,计算相应的有效覆盖面积。结果表明全国新一代天气雷达站200 km范围内0. 5°、1. 45°、2. 4°和3. 35°仰角平均遮挡比例分别为30. 7%、8. 5%、2. 5%和1.0%,平均有效覆盖面积分别为83210.5、109354.2、118170.9、121631.5 km~2,只有少数几个雷达站受邻近山脉地形遮挡影响严重,雷达站总体有效覆盖情况较好。     

基于葵花8卫星的上海市夏季对流初生预报研究

参考Mecikalski et al(2010a;2010b)提出的基于GOES系列卫星的对流初生预报方法,针对上海市夏季对流天气特征建立了基于高时空分辨率的静止气象卫星数据的上海市对流初生判识及预报方法。利用该方法对上海市的一次对流初生个例进行了分析,并对2016年7-8月的12次对流初生事件进行了预报试验,结果表明:方法提取的各个指标能够很好地体现对流初生过程中云团的发展变化特征并能剔除掉成熟对流云团边缘像元的干扰;在12次对流初生事件中,成功地预报了其中的11次,预报时间较对流初生时间平均提前了约30 min,但是对于局地弱对流过程该方法仍有一定的缺陷。     

东北地区城市宜居性评价及影响因素分析——基于2007-2014年面板数据的实证研究

新型城镇化背景下,城市宜居性成为当前学术界研究的热点之一。本文基于资源、环境、经济、社会、生活、安全6个方面构建了宜居城市评价指标体系,运用熵值法、ArcGIS空间分析法和面板数据模型分析法,对2007-2014年东北地区37个城市的宜居性及影响因素进行探究。结果表明：①城市宜居水平整体偏低,提高速度较慢,但城市间的差异在缩小。②城市宜居水平在空间上形成以沈阳、大连为核心的“双核”分布模式,以及以长春、哈尔滨和大庆为核心“扇叶”分布格局。③各城市间宜居水平存在较弱的空间相关性,但这种相关性逐年增强。④各单项指标的地域分异与综合水平的地域分异存在差异,不同城市在不同指标下有其优势与不足。⑤在研究社会经济的影响时,通过建立面板数据模型,发现居民储蓄存款余额、市政设施建设投资、人均住宅房地产开发投资、社区服务设施、人口密度与城市宜居性呈正相关,而SO₂排放量则呈负相关。     

气候变化和人类活动对中国地表水文过程影响定量研究

利用中国372个水文站月径流数据（1960-2000年）及41个水文站年径流数据（2001-2014年）,采用基于Budyko假设的水热耦合平衡方程,构建气候变化和人类活动对径流变化影响定量评估模型,在Penman-Monteith潜在蒸发分析基础上,进一步分析气象因子对径流变化的弹性系数,量化气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的影响。结果表明：① 中国北方地区流域径流变化对各气象因子弹性系数明显大于中国南方地区。就全国而言,径流变化对各因子的弹性系数为：降水>土地利用/土地覆盖变化（LUCC）>相对湿度>太阳辐射>最高气温>风速>最低气温;② 1980-2000年,气候变化总体上有利于增加中国年径流量,而降水对年径流量增加的贡献最为显著;③ 1980-2000年,中国南方流域中,气候变化对年径流变化的影响以增加作用为主,而北方流域,以减少年径流作用为主。对中国大多数流域径流变化而言,人类活动的影响主要以减少年径流量为主。2001-2014年,气候变化以减少径流量为主,人类活动对径流变化的影响程度明显增强,气候变化与人类活动对径流变化的贡献率分别为53.5%、46.5%。该研究对气候变化与人类活动影响下,中国水资源规划管理、防灾减灾及保障水资源安全具有重要理论与现实意义。