Assessment of a climate model to reproduce rainfall variability and extremes over Southern Africa

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The sub-continent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite-derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infrared Rainfall Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993 to 2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° longitude/latitude. This paper concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa and is not intended to discuss possible future changes in climate as these have been documented elsewhere. Simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre’s climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes is assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. The results suggest that the model reproduces the number and spatial distribution of rainfall extremes with some accuracy, but that mean rainfall and rainfall variability is under-estimated (over-estimated) over wet (dry) regions of southern Africa.     

Unique isoprene oxidation products demonstrate chlorine atom chemistry occurs in the Houston,Texas urban area

As part of the 2000 Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS), we studied the isoprene oxidation process under ambient conditions to discern the presence of chlorine atom (Cl) chemistry in the Houston, Texas urban area. By measuring chloromethylbutenone (CMBO) and an isomer of chloromethylbutenal (CMBA), we clearly observed sixteen episodes of active Cl chemistry during the 24-day experiment. Estimated median Cl concentration during each of these episodes was between the detection limit of ~10² atoms cm⁻³ and 50 _{- 30} ^{+ 70} ×10⁴ 50_{ - 30}^{ + 70} \times {10^4} atoms cm⁻³. Cl concentration during all the episodes averaged 7.6 _{- 2.0} ^{+ 4.7} ×10⁴ 7.6_{ - 2.0}^{ + 4.7} \times {10^4} atoms cm⁻³ and thus amounted to less than 3% of the OH concentration during the same periods. During the episodes, the fraction of oxidation chemistry initiated by Cl ranged from 3–43% and was strongly dependent on the quantity and type of hydrocarbons present in the atmosphere. Because of its intermittent presence and low concentration, Cl is not a broadly influential oxidant in the Houston, Texas urban area.     

Late Pleistocene and Holocene environments in the Nile basin

Owing to the very gently sloping nature of the flood plain in the lower White Nile valley, which is underlain by a former lake-bed, the depositional record in that area is unusually well preserved. In Egypt and along the Blue Nile phases of erosion have destroyed segments of the sedimentary record, but the White Nile sequence is a good proxy for both the main Nile and the Blue Nile. During the last 15 ka, at least, times of high flow in the Blue Nile and main Nile were synchronous with those in the White Nile.Not all the White Nile flood deposits have been preserved but calibrated radiocarbon dates obtained on fossil freshwater and amphibious Pila shells and fish bones indicate that White Nile levels were high around 14.7–13.1 ka, 9.7–9.0 ka, 7.9–7.6 ka, 6.3 ka and 3.2–2.8 ka. The Blue Nile record is more fragmentary and that of the main Nile even more so except for the Holocene Nile delta. Calibrated radiocarbon ages for high Blue Nile flows indicate very high flood levels towards 13.9–13.2 ka, 8.6 ka, 7.7 ka and 6.3 ka.Incision by the Blue Nile and main Nile has caused progressive incision in the White Nile amounting to at least 4 m since the terminal Pleistocene  15 ka ago and at least 2 m over the past 9 ka. The Blue Nile seems to have cut down at least 10 m since  15 ka and at least 4 m since 9 ka. The time-transgressive and relatively late inception of plant domestication in the Nile valley may partly reflect this history of incision. Nile incision would propagate upstream into the White Nile valley, draining previously swampy areas along the valley floor, which would then become accessible to cultivation.     

Rate of growth of the preserved North American continental crust: Evidence from Hf and O isotopes in Mississippi detrital zircons

Detrital zircons from the Mississippi River have been analyzed for U-Th-Pb, Lu-Hf and O isotopes to constrain the rate of growth of the preserved North American continental crust. One hundred and forty two concordant zircon U/Pb dates on grains mounted in epoxy, obtained by Excimer laser ablation ICP-MS method, resolved six major periods of zircon crystallization: 0-0.25, 0.3-0.6, 0.95-1.25, 1.3-1.5, 1.65-1.95 and 2.5-3.0 Ga. These age ranges match the ages of the recognized lithotectonic units of the North American continent in the hinterland of the Mississippi River. Ninety-six zircons mounted on tape, which show no age zonation and were within 7.5% of concordance, were selected to represent the six U/Pb age time intervals and analyzed for Lu-Hf and O isotope by laser ablation MC-ICP-MS and SHRIMP II, respectively. The δ¹⁸O values of the zircons show a small step increase in the maximum δ¹⁸O values at the Archean-Proterozoic boundary from 7.5‰ in the Archean to 9.5‰, and rarely 13‰, in the Proterozoic and Phanerozoic. However, the average value of δ¹⁸O in zircons changes little with time, showing that the increase in the maximum δ¹⁸O values between 2.5 and 2.0 Ga, which can be attributed to an increase in the sediment content of the source regions of younger granitoids, is largely balanced by an increase in zircons with anomalously low δ¹⁸O, which can be attributed to hydrothermally altered crust in the granitoid source region.εHf_i values for the zircons range from 13.1 to −26.9. Zircons derived from juvenile crust, which we define as having mantle δ¹⁸O (4.5-6.5‰) and lying within error of the Hf depleted mantle growth curve, are rare or absent in the Mississippi basin. The overwhelming majority of zircons crystallized from melted pre-existing continental crust, or mantle-derived magmas that were contaminated by continental crust. The average time difference between primitive crust formation and remelting for each of the recognized lithotectonic time intervals, which is defined as crustal incubation time in this study, is 890 ± 460 Myr. There is also a suggestion that the crustal incubation time increases with decreasing age in the Mississippi basin, which is consistent with the declining role of radioactive heat production in the lower crust with time.The average Hf model age (1.94 Ga), weighted by fraction of zircons in the river load is in reasonable agreement with the Nd model age (1.7 Ga) for the Mississippi River. However, if the zircons are weighted by the area of North America covered by the six recognized periods of zircon crystallization the average model age is 2.35 Ga, which compares favorably with an area weighted Nd model age of 2.36 Ga. Our preferred approach is to use the measured O isotope values to constrain variations in the ¹⁷⁶Lu/¹⁷⁷Hf ratio of the granitic source region from which the zircons crystallized, making the assumption that zircons with mantle-like O isotopic ratios have higher ¹⁷⁶Lu/¹⁷⁷Hf than zircons with higher O isotope values. This method gives an average Hf model age of 2.53 Ga, which is 180 Myr older than the constant ¹⁷⁶Lu/¹⁷⁷Hf calculation.The area weighted zircon Hf model ages show two distinct periods of crust formation for the North American continent, 1.6-2.2 and 2.9-3.4 Ga. At least 50% of the preserved North American continental crust was extracted from the mantle by 2.9 Ga and 90% by 1.6 Ga. Two similar periods of crustal growth are also recognized in Gondwana (Hawkesworth C. J. and Kemp A. I. S. (2006) Using hafnium and oxygen isotopes in zircons to unravel the record of crustal evolution. Chem. Geol.226, 144-162.), suggesting that these may be periods of global continental crustal growth. However, we stress that more data from other continents are required before the hypothesis of episodic global continental growth can be accepted with confidence.     

Thallium isotopes as a potential tracer for the origin of cratonic eclogites

Cratonic eclogites are inferred to originate either from subducted ocean crust or mantle melts accreted onto the roots of continents. These models have different implications for the growth of continents, but it is currently difficult to determine the origin of individual eclogite suites.Upper ocean crust altered at low temperatures and marine sediments both display high thallium (Tl) concentrations and strongly fractionated Tl isotope signatures relative to the ambient upper mantle. In this study we carry out the first examination of the suitability of Tl isotopes as a tracer for an ocean-crust origin of cratonic eclogites. We have analysed the Tl isotope composition of clinopyroxene and garnet in six eclogites from the Kaalvallei and Bellsbank kimberlite pipes in South Africa. Minerals were pre-cleaned with an HCl leaching technique and the leachates display variably light Tl isotope ratios. These most likely reflect low-temperature hydrothermal alteration occurring after eruption of the kimberlite that carried the eclogites to the surface.The leached mineral pairs all display identical Tl isotope ratios, strongly suggesting that the source of the analysed Tl is identical for each mineral pair. It is, however, not possible to exclude the possibility that the analysed Tl originates from kimberlitic material that was not removed by the cleaning procedure.Only one of the six samples exhibits a Tl isotope composition different from ambient mantle. Assuming that the Tl isotope signatures indeed represent the eclogite minerals and not any form of contamination, the Tl isotope composition in this sample is consistent with containing a minor component (<3%) of ocean crust altered at low temperatures.Thallium isotopes may become one of the most sensitive indicators for the presence of low-T altered ocean crust because of the stark contrast in Tl concentration and isotopic composition between the mantle and altered ocean crust. In fact, no other chemical or isotopic tracer could have provided an indication that any of the samples studied here had a subduction origin. However, much work is still required before it becomes clear if Tl isotope measurements are a viable means to establish the origin of cratonic eclogites.     

Sedimentary and faunal events revealed by a revised correlation of post‐glacial Hirnantian (Late Ordovician) strata in the Welsh Basin,UK

The discovery of a previously unrecognized unconformity and of new faunas in the type Llandovery area underpins a revised correlation of Hirnantian strata in mid Wales. This has revealed the sedimentary and faunal events which affected the Lower Palaeozoic Welsh Basin during the global rise in sea level that followed the end‐Ordovician glacial maximum and has allowed their interpretation in the context of local and global influences. In peri‐basinal shelfal settings the onset of post‐glacial deepening is recorded by an unfossiliferous, transgressive shoreface sequence (Cwm Clyd Sandstone and Garth House formations) which rests unconformably on Rawtheyan rocks, deformed during an episode of pre‐Hirnantian tectonism. In the deep water facies of the basin centre, this same sequence boundary is now recognized as the contact between fine‐grained, re‐sedimented mudstones and an underlying regressive sequence of turbidite sandstones and conglomerates; it is at a level lower than previously cited and calls into question the established lithostratigraphy. In younger Hirnantian strata, graptolites associated with the newly recognized Ystradwalter Member (Chwefri Formation) demonstrate that this distal shelf unit correlates with the persculptus graptolite‐bearing Mottled Mudstone Member of the basinal succession. Together these members record an important macrofaunal recolonization of the Welsh Basin and mark a key event in the post‐glacial transgression. Further deepening saw the establishment of a stratified water column and the imposition of anoxic bottom water conditions across the basin floor. These post‐glacial Hirnantian events are consistent with the re‐establishment of connections between a silled Welsh Basin and the open Iapetus Ocean. However, a comparison with other areas suggests that each event records a separate deepening episode within a pulsed glacio‐eustatic transgression, while also reflecting changes in post‐glacial climate and patterns of oceanic circulation and associated biotic flux. British Geological Survey © NERC 2009. All rights reserved.     

Bodily tides near the 1:1 spin-orbit resonance: correction to Goldreich’s dynamical model

Spin-orbit coupling is often described in an approach known as ??the MacDonald torque??, which has long become the textbook standard due to its apparent simplicity. Within this method, a concise expression for the additional tidal potential, derived by MacDonald (Rev Geophys 2:467?C541, 1994), is combined with a convenient assumption that the quality factor Q is frequency-independent (or, equivalently, that the geometric lag angle is constant in time). This makes the treatment unphysical because MacDonald??s derivation of the said formula was, very implicitly, based on keeping the time lag frequency-independent, which is equivalent to setting Q scale as the inverse tidal frequency. This contradiction requires the entire MacDonald treatment of both non-resonant and resonant rotation to be rewritten. The non-resonant case was reconsidered by Efroimsky and Williams (Cel Mech Dyn Astron 104:257?C289, 2009), in application to spin modes distant from the major commensurabilities. In the current paper, we continue this work by introducing the necessary alterations into the MacDonald-torque-based model of falling into a 1-to-1 resonance. (The original version of this model was offered by Goldreich (Astron J 71:1?C7, 1996). Although the MacDonald torque, both in its original formulation and in its corrected version, is incompatible with realistic rheologies of minerals and mantles, it remains a useful toy model, which enables one to obtain, in some situations, qualitatively meaningful results without resorting to the more rigorous (and complicated) theory of Darwin and Kaula. We first address this simplified model in application to an oblate primary body, with tides raised on it by an orbiting zero-inclination secondary. (Here the role of the tidally-perturbed primary can be played by a satellite, the perturbing secondary being its host planet. A planet may as well be the perturbed primary, its host star acting as the tide-raising secondary). We then extend the model to a triaxial primary body experiencing both a tidal and a permanent-figure torque exerted by an orbiting secondary. We consider the effect of the triaxiality on both circulating and librating rotation near the synchronous state. Circulating rotation may evolve toward the libration region or toward a spin faster than synchronous (the so-called pseudosynchronous spin). Which behaviour depends on the orbit eccentricity, the triaxial figure of the primary, and the mass ratio of the secondary and primary bodies. The spin evolution will always stall for the oblate case. For libration with a small amplitude, expressions are derived for the libration frequency, damping rate, and average orientation. Importantly, the stability of pseudosynchronous spin hinges upon the dissipation model. Makarove and Efroimsky (Astrophys J, 2012) have found that a more realistic tidal dissipation model than the corrected MacDonald torque makes pseudosynchronous spin unstable. Besides, for a sufficiently large triaxiality, pseudosynchronism is impossible, no matter what dissipation model is used.     

Automated probabilistic classification of transients and variables

There is an increasing number of large, digital, synoptic sky surveys, in which repeated observations are obtained over large areas of the sky in multiple epochs. Likewise, there is a growth in the number of (often automated or robotic) follow‐up facilities with varied capabilities in terms of instruments, depth, cadence, wavelengths, etc., most of which are geared toward some specific astrophysical phenomenon. As the number of detected transient events grows, an automated, probabilistic classification of the detected variables and transients becomes increasingly important, so that an optimal use can be made of follow‐up facilities, without unnecessary duplication of effort. We describe a methodology now under development for a prototype event classification system; it involves Bayesian and Machine Learning classifiers, automated incorporation of feedback from follow‐up observations, and discriminated or directed follow‐up requests. This type of methodology may be essential for the massive synoptic sky surveys in the future. (© 2008 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)