Using large‐scale climatic patterns for improving long lead time streamflow forecasts for Gunnison and San Juan River Basins

In a water‐stressed region, such as the western United States, it is essential to have long lead times for streamflow forecasts used in reservoir operations and water resources management. Current water supply forecasts provide a 3‐month to 6‐month lead time, depending on the time of year. However, there is a growing demand from stakeholders to have forecasts that run lead times of 1 year or more. In this study, a data‐driven model, the support vector machine (SVM) based on the statistical learning theory, was used to predict annual streamflow volume with a 1‐year lead time. Annual average oceanic–atmospheric indices consisting of the Pacific decadal oscillation, North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO), and a new sea surface temperature (SST) data set for the ‘Hondo’ region for the period of 1906–2006 were used to generate annual streamflow volumes for multiple sites in the Gunnison River Basin and San Juan River Basin, both located in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Based on the performance measures, the model showed very good forecasts, and the forecasts were in good agreement with measured streamflow volumes. Inclusion of SST information from the Hondo region improved the model's forecasting ability; in addition, the combination of NAO and Hondo region SST data resulted in the best streamflow forecasts for a 1‐year lead time. The results of the SVM model were found to be better than the feed‐forward, back propagation artificial neural network and multiple linear regression. The results from this study have the potential of providing useful information for the planning and management of water resources within these basins. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The analysis of results of remote sensing monitoring of the temperature profile in lower atmosphere in Bergen (Norway)

Considered is the application of MTP-5 meteorological temperature profiler used for the remote sensing of vertical profiles of the air temperature in the planetary boundary layer and the lower one-kilometer layer of the atmosphere. The measurements were carried out in Bergen (Norway) in 2011–2012. The obtained dataset of temperature profiles has temporal resolution of five minutes and vertical resolution of 50 m. The MTP-5 data are complemented with the measurements of the air temperature and the wind taken at two automatic weather stations and with the measurements of the rain intensity made with the rain radar. Studied is the impact of meteorological conditions and precipitation on the MTP-5 readings. It is revealed that formation of a thin water film (of ice or, to a smaller degree, of sleet) on the surface of the sensor cover of MTP-5 has a significant impact on the data of the temperature monitoring. The removal of intensive precipitation (the precipitation rate is >0.2 mm/hour) improved the reliability and quality of the temperature profile monitoring. In particular, it is demonstrated that significant air pollution and stably stratified atmospheric conditions which lead to low temperatures are reliably monitored with this instrument.     

Why are hatching and emergence success low? Mercury and selenium concentrations in nesting leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) and their young in Florida

Leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) have low hatching and emergence success compared to other sea turtle species. Postmortem examinations of hatchlings showed degeneration of heart and skeletal muscle that was similar to that found in other neonates with selenium deficient mothers. Selenium deficiency can result from elevated concentrations of bodily mercury. Ingested mercury is detoxified by the liver through mercury-selenium compound formation. In animals persistently exposed to mercury, the liver’s ability to detoxify this element may decrease, especially if dietary selenium is insufficient. We measured mercury and selenium concentrations in nesting female leatherbacks and their hatchlings from Florida and compared the levels to hatching and emergence success. Both liver selenium and the liver selenium-to-mercury ratio positively correlated with leatherback hatching and emergence success. This study provides the first evidence for the roles of mercury and selenium in explaining low reproductive success in a globally imperiled species, the leatherback sea turtle.     

Some challenges of monitoring a potentially active volcanic field in a large urban area: Auckland volcanic field,New Zealand

Natural Hazards - The city of Auckland (population 1.3 million) is built on and around a potentially active basaltic intraplate volcanic system, the Auckland volcanic field. This...     

The Pacific Gondwana margin in the late Neoproterozoic–early Paleozoic: Detrital zircon U–Pb ages from metasediments in northwest Argentina reveal their maximum age,provenance and tectonic setting

U–Pb detrital zircon ages are reported from Puncoviscana Formation (late Neoproterozoic–Early Cambrian) and Mesón Group (Late Cambrian) greywackes of northwest Argentina, to constrain provenance and depositional environment.The new data are combined with previously-published detrital zircon ages, to show that Puncoviscana Formation age patterns contain two broad groups: late Mesoproterozoic–early Neoproterozoic (1150–850 Ma) and late Neoproterozoic–Early Cambrian (650–520 Ma); with their relative proportions varying inversely with youngest component age. The 1150–850 Ma age components are dominant in greywackes with oldest late Neoproterozoic components > 600 Ma. The former diminish considerably when late Neoproteozoic components become dominant and younger, to 520 Ma. A northernmost greywacke sample from Purmamarca, Jujuy, is distinctive: whilst its zircon age pattern partly resembles other Puncoviscana Formation samples, it contains no Cambrian–late Neoproterozoic ages, the youngest ages being early Neoproterozoic. This may reflect an early, Neoproterozoic, passive-margin depocentre for the Formation, or an older (early Neoproterozoic) succession within it, which may predate the Brasiliano orogeny in Brazil. The youngest age components, c. 520 Ma, in a greywacke from Rancagua (Cachi, Salta province), dominate an almost unimodal pattern suggestive of contemporary volcanic sources at a late Early Cambrian depocentre. Detrital zircon age patterns of the Mesón Group (Lizoite Formation) have major Cambrian–latest Neoproterozoic components resembling those of the Puncoviscana Formation, but its Mesoproterozoic component is diminished, and there are no significant age components of this age. Small youngest components at c. 500 Ma suggest a maximum Late Cambrian stratigraphic age. The Puncoviscana Formation detrital zircon patterns suggest a provenance in a continental hinterland having a stabilised, extensive late Mesoproterozoic orogen (with minor Paleoproterozoic and Archean precursors), and a more variable late Neoproterozoic orogen containing an evolving sequence of less extensive subcomponents. A direct relationship with the Brazilian Shield is suggested; with sediment supplies originating within active-margin orogens of the interior and collisional orogens at the suture between African and South American cratons, but ultimate deposition in passive-margin environments of western Gondwanaland.     

Satellite Measurements of Albedo and Radiant Temperature from Semi-Desert Grassland along the Arizona/Sonora Border

Along the international border separatingthe U.S. (Arizona) and Mexico (Sonora), differencesin the grazing intensity of domestic livestock arecommonly presumed to have created a large differencein vegetation cover between the two countries. Thisvegetation difference is reportedly responsible for anextensive albedo and temperature discontinuity thatmay be affecting regional climate. In this study, weused Landsat Thematic Mapper data to examinetrans-border differences in these two biophysicalparameters. Albedo and radiant temperature estimateswere computed for 25 km-long (east-west) transectsthrough semi-desert grassland on each side of theborder at two different times of year. Only smallaverage trans-border differences in these parameterswere found, and in some cases average albedo andtemperature data were essentially equal on each sideof the border. In addition, we found significantspatial heterogeneity in conditions on both sides ofthe border. These results suggest that, based on asmall sample, it may be difficult to assess whetherthere are significant differences in biophysicalproperties of semi-arid grassland between Arizona andMexico in the vicinity of the border. We concludethat more extensive spatial and temporal sampling iscritical in assessing any possible trans-borderdifferences in average terrain conditions that mightaffect climate, and that this data must be coupledwith more extensive meteorological data to assesswhether a difference in climate also exists.     

Double Glacier Volcano,a ‘new’ Quaternary volcano in the eastern Aleutian volcanic arc

The Double Glacier Volcano (DGV) is a small dome complex of porphyritic hornblende andesite and dacite that is part of the Cook Inlet segment of Quaternary volcanoes of the eastern Aleutian arc. Its discovery reduces the previously described large volcano gap in Cook Inlet segment to a distance similar to that between other volcanoes in the area. DGV lavas are medium-K, calcalkaline andesites and dacites with concentrations of major and minor elements similar to the other Quaternary volcanoes of the Cook Inlet segment. Available K-Ar ages indicate that DGV was active 600–900 ka.     

The development of stochastic space transformation and diagrammatic perturbation techniques in subsurface hydrology

This paper develops concepts and methods to study stochastic hydrologic models. Problems regarding the application of the existing stochastic approaches in the study of groundwater flow are acknowledged, and an attempt is made to develop efficient means for their solution. These problems include: the spatial multi-dimensionality of the differential equation models governing transport-type phenomena; physically unrealistic assumptions and approximations and the inadequacy of the ordinary perturbation techniques. Multi-dimensionality creates serious mathematical and technical difficulties in the stochastic analysis of groundwater flow, due to the need for large mesh sizes and the poorly conditioned matrices arising from numerical approximations. An alternative to the purely computational approach is to simplify the complex partial differential equations analytically. This can be achieved efficiently by means of a space transformation approach, which transforms the original multi-dimensional problem to a much simpler unidimensional space. The space transformation method is applied to stochastic partial differential equations whose coefficients are random functions of space and/or time. Such equations constitute an integral part of groundwater flow and solute transport. Ordinary perturbation methods for studying stochastic flow equations are in many cases physically inadequate and may lead to questionable approximations of the actual flow. To address these problems, a perturbation analysis based on Feynman-diagram expansions is proposed in this paper. This approach incorporates important information on spatial variability and fulfills essential physical requirements, both important advantages over ordinary hydrologic perturbation techniques. Moreover, the diagram-expansion approach reduces the original stochastic flow problem to a closed set of equations for the mean and the covariance function.     

An evaluation of two automated quality control methods designed for use with hourly wind profiler data

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has completed the installation of a 30-site demonstration network of wind-profiling radars in the central United States. The network is being used to demonstrate and assess the utility of wind profiler technology in a quasi-operational environment, and to help define operational requirements for possible future national networks. This paper describes two automated quality control methods designed to remove erroneous winds from the hourly network data. Case study examples and statistical evaluation of the performance of each method are also presented.     

The chronology and stratigraphy of the alluvial terraces of the river Dane Valley,Cheshire, N.W. England

Three groups of alluvial terraces together with the modern floodplain mark the Postglacial development of the middle part of the Dane Valley, Cheshire. These are a High terrace group of late Pleistocene age, a Middle terrace group of late Pleistocene to early Holocene age, a Low terrace of mid–late Holocene age, and a modern (post ca. 1840 AD) floodplain. A chronology of erosion, deposition, and landform development since mid-Holocene times is established in this paper on the basis of terrace morphology, stratigraphy, sedimentology, soil analysis, magnetic mineral analysis, and four radiocarbon dates. After dissection of the Middle terrace during the early to mid-Holocene, a long period of lateral activity by the river was followed by a major aggradation phase, which formed the Low terrace surface. This was followed by dissection during the last ca. 300 years and the development of the modern floodplain since ca. 1840 AD. Various explanations for the changes during the Holocene are considered; the Low terrace aggradation appears to be related to a major phase of mediaeval soil erosion.