Using large‐scale climatic patterns for improving long lead time streamflow forecasts for Gunnison and San Juan River Basins

In a water‐stressed region, such as the western United States, it is essential to have long lead times for streamflow forecasts used in reservoir operations and water resources management. Current water supply forecasts provide a 3‐month to 6‐month lead time, depending on the time of year. However, there is a growing demand from stakeholders to have forecasts that run lead times of 1 year or more. In this study, a data‐driven model, the support vector machine (SVM) based on the statistical learning theory, was used to predict annual streamflow volume with a 1‐year lead time. Annual average oceanic–atmospheric indices consisting of the Pacific decadal oscillation, North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO), and a new sea surface temperature (SST) data set for the ‘Hondo’ region for the period of 1906–2006 were used to generate annual streamflow volumes for multiple sites in the Gunnison River Basin and San Juan River Basin, both located in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Based on the performance measures, the model showed very good forecasts, and the forecasts were in good agreement with measured streamflow volumes. Inclusion of SST information from the Hondo region improved the model's forecasting ability; in addition, the combination of NAO and Hondo region SST data resulted in the best streamflow forecasts for a 1‐year lead time. The results of the SVM model were found to be better than the feed‐forward, back propagation artificial neural network and multiple linear regression. The results from this study have the potential of providing useful information for the planning and management of water resources within these basins. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The analysis of results of remote sensing monitoring of the temperature profile in lower atmosphere in Bergen (Norway)

Considered is the application of MTP-5 meteorological temperature profiler used for the remote sensing of vertical profiles of the air temperature in the planetary boundary layer and the lower one-kilometer layer of the atmosphere. The measurements were carried out in Bergen (Norway) in 2011–2012. The obtained dataset of temperature profiles has temporal resolution of five minutes and vertical resolution of 50 m. The MTP-5 data are complemented with the measurements of the air temperature and the wind taken at two automatic weather stations and with the measurements of the rain intensity made with the rain radar. Studied is the impact of meteorological conditions and precipitation on the MTP-5 readings. It is revealed that formation of a thin water film (of ice or, to a smaller degree, of sleet) on the surface of the sensor cover of MTP-5 has a significant impact on the data of the temperature monitoring. The removal of intensive precipitation (the precipitation rate is >0.2 mm/hour) improved the reliability and quality of the temperature profile monitoring. In particular, it is demonstrated that significant air pollution and stably stratified atmospheric conditions which lead to low temperatures are reliably monitored with this instrument.     

Forced and unforced variability of twentieth century North American droughts and pluvials

Research on the forcing of drought and pluvial events over North America is dominated by general circulation model experiments that often have operational limitations (e.g., computational expense, ability to simulate relevant processes, etc). We use a statistically based modeling approach to investigate sea surface temperature (SST) forcing of the twentieth century pluvial (1905?C1917) and drought (1932?C1939, 1948?C1957, 1998?C2002) events. A principal component (PC) analysis of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the North American Drought Atlas separates the drought variability into five leading modes accounting for 62% of the underlying variance. Over the full period spanning these events (1900?C2005), the first three PCs significantly correlate with SSTs in the equatorial Pacific (PC 1), North Pacific (PC 2), and North Atlantic (PC 3), with spatial patterns (as defined by the empirical orthogonal functions) consistent with our understanding of North American drought responses to SST forcing. We use a large ensemble statistical modeling approach to determine how successfully we can reproduce these drought/pluvial events using these three modes of variability. Using Pacific forcing only (PCs 1?C2), we are able to reproduce the 1948?C1957 drought and 1905?C1917 pluvial above a 95% random noise threshold in over 90% of the ensemble members; the addition of Atlantic forcing (PCs 1?C2?C3) provides only marginal improvement. For the 1998?C2002 drought, Pacific forcing reproduces the drought above noise in over 65% of the ensemble members, with the addition of Atlantic forcing increasing the number passing to over 80%. The severity of the drought, however, is underestimated in the ensemble median, suggesting this drought intensity can only be achieved through internal variability or other processes. Pacific only forcing does a poor job of reproducing the 1932?C1939 drought pattern in the ensemble median, and less than one third of ensemble members exceed the noise threshold (28%). Inclusion of Atlantic forcing improves the ensemble median drought pattern and nearly doubles the number of ensemble members passing the noise threshold (52%). Even with the inclusion of Atlantic forcing, the intensity of the simulated 1932?C1939 drought is muted, and the drought itself extends too far into the southwest and southern Great Plains. To an even greater extent than the 1998?C2002 drought, these results suggest much of the variance in the 1932?C1939 drought is dependent on processes other than SST forcing. This study highlights the importance of internal noise and non SST processes for hydroclimatic variability over North America, complementing existing research using general circulation models.     

Why are hatching and emergence success low? Mercury and selenium concentrations in nesting leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) and their young in Florida

Leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) have low hatching and emergence success compared to other sea turtle species. Postmortem examinations of hatchlings showed degeneration of heart and skeletal muscle that was similar to that found in other neonates with selenium deficient mothers. Selenium deficiency can result from elevated concentrations of bodily mercury. Ingested mercury is detoxified by the liver through mercury-selenium compound formation. In animals persistently exposed to mercury, the liver’s ability to detoxify this element may decrease, especially if dietary selenium is insufficient. We measured mercury and selenium concentrations in nesting female leatherbacks and their hatchlings from Florida and compared the levels to hatching and emergence success. Both liver selenium and the liver selenium-to-mercury ratio positively correlated with leatherback hatching and emergence success. This study provides the first evidence for the roles of mercury and selenium in explaining low reproductive success in a globally imperiled species, the leatherback sea turtle.     

Some challenges of monitoring a potentially active volcanic field in a large urban area: Auckland volcanic field,New Zealand

Natural Hazards - The city of Auckland (population 1.3 million) is built on and around a potentially active basaltic intraplate volcanic system, the Auckland volcanic field. This...     

The Pacific Gondwana margin in the late Neoproterozoic–early Paleozoic: Detrital zircon U–Pb ages from metasediments in northwest Argentina reveal their maximum age,provenance and tectonic setting

U–Pb detrital zircon ages are reported from Puncoviscana Formation (late Neoproterozoic–Early Cambrian) and Mesón Group (Late Cambrian) greywackes of northwest Argentina, to constrain provenance and depositional environment.The new data are combined with previously-published detrital zircon ages, to show that Puncoviscana Formation age patterns contain two broad groups: late Mesoproterozoic–early Neoproterozoic (1150–850 Ma) and late Neoproterozoic–Early Cambrian (650–520 Ma); with their relative proportions varying inversely with youngest component age. The 1150–850 Ma age components are dominant in greywackes with oldest late Neoproterozoic components > 600 Ma. The former diminish considerably when late Neoproteozoic components become dominant and younger, to 520 Ma. A northernmost greywacke sample from Purmamarca, Jujuy, is distinctive: whilst its zircon age pattern partly resembles other Puncoviscana Formation samples, it contains no Cambrian–late Neoproterozoic ages, the youngest ages being early Neoproterozoic. This may reflect an early, Neoproterozoic, passive-margin depocentre for the Formation, or an older (early Neoproterozoic) succession within it, which may predate the Brasiliano orogeny in Brazil. The youngest age components, c. 520 Ma, in a greywacke from Rancagua (Cachi, Salta province), dominate an almost unimodal pattern suggestive of contemporary volcanic sources at a late Early Cambrian depocentre. Detrital zircon age patterns of the Mesón Group (Lizoite Formation) have major Cambrian–latest Neoproterozoic components resembling those of the Puncoviscana Formation, but its Mesoproterozoic component is diminished, and there are no significant age components of this age. Small youngest components at c. 500 Ma suggest a maximum Late Cambrian stratigraphic age. The Puncoviscana Formation detrital zircon patterns suggest a provenance in a continental hinterland having a stabilised, extensive late Mesoproterozoic orogen (with minor Paleoproterozoic and Archean precursors), and a more variable late Neoproterozoic orogen containing an evolving sequence of less extensive subcomponents. A direct relationship with the Brazilian Shield is suggested; with sediment supplies originating within active-margin orogens of the interior and collisional orogens at the suture between African and South American cratons, but ultimate deposition in passive-margin environments of western Gondwanaland.     

Persistence and Distribution of Temperate Intertidal Worm Reefs in Delaware Bay: A Comparison of Biological and Physical Factors

The sandbuilder worm Sabellaria vulgaris is widely found along the Mid-Atlantic region of the USA, but occurs in dense, reef-like structures in only one estuary. Reef formation and persistence was monitored in lower Delaware Bay along the western shoreline between 2001 and 2009 using ground surveys and aerial photography. These observations were combined with field larval settlement studies, laboratory low temperature susceptibility experiments, and an examination of the physical properties of the individual beaches to attempt to explain the location and persistence of the reefs. Neither exposure to temperature minima during spring low tides nor yearly variations in recruitment accounted for the observed reef distribution patterns. This study suggests that two physical factors, the distance from the beach to the 2-m isobath and the presence of coarse substratum >2 mm explain the greatest amount of variation in the observed distribution of intertidal S. vulgaris reefs and small aggregations.     

Satellite Measurements of Albedo and Radiant Temperature from Semi-Desert Grassland along the Arizona/Sonora Border

Along the international border separatingthe U.S. (Arizona) and Mexico (Sonora), differencesin the grazing intensity of domestic livestock arecommonly presumed to have created a large differencein vegetation cover between the two countries. Thisvegetation difference is reportedly responsible for anextensive albedo and temperature discontinuity thatmay be affecting regional climate. In this study, weused Landsat Thematic Mapper data to examinetrans-border differences in these two biophysicalparameters. Albedo and radiant temperature estimateswere computed for 25 km-long (east-west) transectsthrough semi-desert grassland on each side of theborder at two different times of year. Only smallaverage trans-border differences in these parameterswere found, and in some cases average albedo andtemperature data were essentially equal on each sideof the border. In addition, we found significantspatial heterogeneity in conditions on both sides ofthe border. These results suggest that, based on asmall sample, it may be difficult to assess whetherthere are significant differences in biophysicalproperties of semi-arid grassland between Arizona andMexico in the vicinity of the border. We concludethat more extensive spatial and temporal sampling iscritical in assessing any possible trans-borderdifferences in average terrain conditions that mightaffect climate, and that this data must be coupledwith more extensive meteorological data to assesswhether a difference in climate also exists.     

Comparative reproductive success of winter flounder in Long Island Sound: A three-year study (biology,biochemistry, and chemistry)

In a 3-yr study, late prespawning winter flounder were collected from various stations in Long Island Sound (three of them heavily urbanized) and spawned in the laboratory. For comparative purposes, flounder from two sites in the Boston Harbor area were similarly treated in 1987 and 1988. Of the stations in Long Island Sound, New Haven Harbor alone consistently produced low percent viable hatch and small larvae. Boston Harbor produced the smallest larvae of all sites. There were no significant station-to-station differences in lipid utilization during larval development; yolk reserves at stations showing a low percent viable hatch, small larvae, and low embryonic development rate were probably used in part for stress metabolism. No significant differences in concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls for collections from Long Island Sound were found either in livers of spawned fish, in sediments, or in eggs of winter flounder. The very low metal concentrations in winter flounder eggs showed no relation to the degree of metal contamination found at stations in Long Island Sound and Boston Harbor.