Developing an Event Tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at Vesuvius

Probabilistic characterizations of possible future eruptive scenarios at Vesuvius volcano are elaborated and organized within a risk-based framework. In the EXPLORIS project, a wide variety of topics relating to this basic problem have been pursued: updates of historical data, reinterpretation of previous geological field data and the collection of new fieldwork results, the development of novel numerical modelling codes and of risk assessment techniques have all been completed. To achieve coherence, many diverse strands of evidence had to be unified within a formalised structure, and linked together by expert knowledge. For this purpose, a Vesuvius ‘Event Tree’ (ET) was created to summarise in a numerical-graphical form, at different levels of detail, all the relative likelihoods relating to the genesis and style of eruption, development and nature of volcanic hazards, and the probabilities of occurrence of different volcanic risks in the next eruption crisis. The Event Tree formulation provides a logical pathway connecting generic probabilistic hazard assessment to quantitative risk evaluation. In order to achieve a complete parameterization for this all-inclusive approach, exhaustive hazard and risk models were needed, quantified with comprehensive uncertainty distributions for all factors involved, rather than simple ‘best-estimate’ or nominal values. Thus, a structured expert elicitation procedure was implemented to complement more traditional data analysis and interpretative approaches. The structure of the Vesuvius Event Tree is presented, and some of the data analysis findings and elicitation outcomes that have provided initial indicative probability distributions to be associated with each of its branches are summarized. The Event Tree extends from initiating volcanic eruption events and hazards right through to human impact and infrastructure consequences, with the complete tree and its parameterisation forming a quantitative synoptic framework for comprehensive hazard evaluation and mapping of risk impacts. The organization of the Event Tree allows easy updating, as and when new information becomes available.     

Contrasting styles of explosive eruption at Sete Cidades,São Miguel,Azores, in the last 5000 years: Hazard implications from modelling

The deposits of three eruptions in the last 5000 years are described in detail in order to constrain eruptive parameters and allow a quantitative assessment of the hazard from a range of explosive eruption types at Sete Cidades volcano, São Miguel, Azores. These deposits include: the Caldeira Seca eruption (P17) which occurred around 600 yr BP, which was the last explosive event from inside the Sete Cidades caldera, the P11 eruption, dated at 2220 ± 70 yr BP, and the undated P8 eruption (< 3000 yr BP). These deposits were chosen to represent the range of likely explosive activity from the caldera.     

A long-term volcanic hazard event tree for Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes (Tenerife,Canary Islands)

We propose a long-term volcanic hazards event tree for Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes, two complex alkaline composite volcanoes that have erupted 1.8–3 km³ of mafic and felsic magmas from different vent sites during the last 35 ka. This is the maximum period that can be investigated from surface geology and also represents an upper time limit for the appearance of the first phonolites on that volcano. The whole process of the event tree construction was divided into three stages. The first stage included the determination of the spatial probability of vent opening for basaltic and phonolitic eruptions, based on the available geological and geophysical data. The second, involved the analysis of the different eruption types that have characterised the volcanic activity from Teide during this period. The third stage focussed on the generation of the event tree from the information obtained in the two previous steps and from the application of a probabilistic analysis on the occurrence of each possible eruption type. As for other volcanoes, the structure of the Teide-Pico Viejo Event Tree was subdivided into several steps of eruptive progression from general to more specific events. The precursory phase was assumed as an unrest episode of any geologic origin (magmatic, hydrothermal or tectonic), which could be responsible for a clear increase of volcanic activity revealed by geophysical and geochemical monitoring. According to the present characteristics of Teide-Pico Viejo and their past history, we started by considering whether the unrest episode would lead to a sector collapse or not. If the sector collapse does not occur but an eruption is expected, this could be either from the central vents or from any of the volcanoes' flanks. In any of these cases, there are several possibilities according to what has been observed in the period considered in our study. In the case that a sector collapse occurs and is followed by an eruption we considered it as a flank eruption. We conducted an experts elicitation judgement to assign probabilities to the different possibilities indicated in the event tree. We assumed long term estimations based on existing geological and historical data for the last 35 Ka, which gave us a minimum estimate as the geological record for such a long period is incomplete. However, to estimate probabilities for a short term forecast, for example during an unrest episode, we would need to include in the event tree additional information from the monitoring networks, as any possible precursors that may be identified could tell us in which direction the system will evolve. Therefore, we propose to develop future versions of the event tree to include also the precursors that might be expected on each path during the initial stages of a new eruptive event.     

Hydrogen isotope discrimination in aquatic primary producers: implications for aquatic food web studies

Large differences in δ ²H of primary producers between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems are used to identify subsidies, discriminate organic matter sources, and reduce uncertainty in food web studies. Previous investigations of hydrogen isotope ratios suggest there may be predictable differences between the δ ²H of water and organic matter for different types of primary producers. We define the difference in the net isotopic discrimination between water and bulk organic matter (om) as: Δ_H = (δ ²H_om ? δ ²H_water) ÷ (1 + δ ²H_water ÷ 1,000). We summarized Δ_H values from published literature and we measured the δ ²H of water and primary producers in order to compare Δ_H among aquatic and terrestrial primary producers. Measurements were made from three water body types (lake, river, coastal lagoon) and their associated watersheds. Although we predicted a large and equivalent net isotopic discrimination for aquatic primary producers, we found considerable variability among groups of aquatic producers. Macroalgae, benthic microalgae, and phytoplankton had more negative Δ_H values (i.e. greater isotopic discrimination) than both aquatic macrophytes and terrestrial vegetation. The more positive δ ²H_om and hence lower Δ_H of terrestrial vegetation was expected due to relative increases in the heavier isotope, deuterium, during transpiration. However, the more positive values of δ ²H_om and relatively low Δ_H in aquatic macrophytes, even submerged species, was unexpected. Marine macroalgae had high variability in δ ²H_om as a group, but low variability within distinct species. Variability among types of primary producers in δ ²H_om and in Δ_H should be assessed when hydrogen is used in isotopic studies of food webs.     

The metabolism of aquatic ecosystems: history,applications, and future challenges

Measurements of the production and consumption of organic material have been a focus of aquatic science for more than 80 years. Over the last century, a variety of approaches have been developed and employed for measuring rates of gross primary production (P_g), respiration (R), and net ecosystem production (P_n = P_g − R) within aquatic ecosystems. Here, we reconsider the range of approaches and applications for ecosystem metabolism measurements, and suggest ways by which such studies can continue to contribute to aquatic ecology. This paper reviews past and contemporary studies of aquatic ecosystem-level metabolism to identify their role in understanding and managing aquatic systems. We identify four broad research objectives that have motivated ecosystem metabolism studies: (1) quantifying magnitude and variability of metabolic rates for cross-system comparison, (2) estimating organic matter transfer between adjacent systems or subsystems, (3) measuring ecosystem-scale responses to perturbation, both natural and anthropogenic, and (4) quantifying and calibrating models of biogeochemical processes and trophic networks. The magnitudes of whole-system gross primary production, respiration and net ecosystem production rates vary among aquatic environments and are partly constrained by the chosen methodology. We argue that measurements of ecosystem metabolism should be a vital component of routine monitoring at larger scales in the aquatic environment using existing flexible, precise, and durable sensor technologies. Current and future aquatic ecosystem studies will benefit from application of new methods for metabolism measurements, which facilitate integration of process measurements and calibration of models for addressing fundamental questions involving ecosystem-scale processes.     

Silicic recharge of multiple rhyolite magmas by basaltic intrusion during the 22.6 ka Okareka Eruption Episode, New Zealand

Deposits of the 22.6 ka Okareka Eruption Episode from Tarawera Volcanic Complex record the sequential and simultaneous eruption of three discrete rhyolite magmas following a silicic recharge event related to basaltic intrusion. The episode started with basaltic eruption ( 0.01 km³ magma), and rapidly changed to a plinian eruption involving a moderate temperature (750 °C), cummingtonite-bearing rhyolite magma (T1) with a volume of  0.3 km³. Hybrid basalt/rhyolite clasts demonstrate direct basaltic intrusion that helped trigger the eruption. Crystals, shards and lapilli of two other rhyolite magmas then joined the eruption sequence. They comprise a cooler (720 °C) crystal-rich biotite–hornblende rhyolite magma (T2) ( 0.3 km³), and a hotter (780 °C), crystal-poor, pyroxene–hornblende rhyolite magma (T3) ( 4.5 km³). All mid to late-stage ash units contain various mixtures of T1, T2 and T3 components with a general increase in abundance of T3 and rapid decline of T1 with time. About 4 km³ of T3 magma was extruded as lavas at the end of the episode. Contrasts in melt composition, crystal and volatile contents, and temperatures influenced viscosity and miscibility, and thus limited pre-eruption mixing of the rhyolite magmas. The eruption sequence and the restricted direct basaltic intrusion into only one magma (T1) is consistent with the rhyolites occupying separate melt pods within a large crystal-mush zone. Melt–crystal equilibria and volatile contents in melt inclusions indicate temporary magma storage depths of < 8 km. Each of the magmas display quartz crystals containing melt inclusions that are compositionally highly evolved relative to the accompanying matrix glass, and thus point to a stage of more complete crystallisation. The matrix glass, enriched in Sr and Ti, represents a re-melting event of underlying the crystal pile induced by basaltic intrusion, presumably part of the same event that erupted scoria at the start of the eruption. This recharge rhyolite melt percolated upward and hybridised with the resident melts in each of the three magma pods. The Okareka episode rhyolites contrast with other well-documented rhyolites that are either continuously or discontinuously zoned, or have been homogenised during re-activation to a uniform composition. Rapid basalt dike intrusion to shallow levels appears to have (prematurely?) triggered the Okareka rhyolites into eruption, so that their early ponding in separate melt pods has been recorded before it could be masked by mixing or stratification had amalgamation into a larger body occurred.     

Interpreting flash flood palaeoflow parameters from antidunes and gravel lenses: An example from Montserrat,West Indies

The wavelength of stationary water‐surface waves and their associated antidune bedforms are related to the mean velocity and depth of formative flow. In past published sand‐bed flume experiments, it was found that lens structures were preserved during antidune growth and change, and the dimension of the lenses was empirically related to antidune wavelength, and thus could be used to estimate flow velocity and depth. This study is the first to compare observations of formative flow conditions and resulting sedimentary structures in a natural setting, testing the previously published relationship at a field‐scale. Trains of stationary and upstream migrating water‐surface waves were prevalent during the flash flood in October 2012 in the Belham Valley, Montserrat, West Indies. Wave positions and wavelengths were assessed at 900 sec intervals through the daylight hours of the event within a monitored reach. The wave data indicate flow depths up to 1·3 m and velocity up to 3·6 m sec^?1. Sedimentary structures formed by antidune growth and change were preserved in the event deposit. These structures include lenses of clast‐supported gravel and massive sand, with varying internal architecture. The lenses and associated low‐angle strata are comparable to sand‐bed structures formed from stationary and upstream migrating waves in flume experiments, confirming the diagnostic value of these structures. Using mean lens length in the event deposit underestimated peak flow conditions during the flood and implied that the lenses were preserved during waning flow.     

Temperature structure parameter measurements using differential temperature sensors

The comparison of C _infT ^sup2 estimates in the atmospheric boundary layer, from spectral and differential temperature (T) measurements, is discussed. Measurements of C _infT ^sup2 using these two methods are compared and the differences between the two are shown to be due to low-frequency enhancement of the T spectrum. Possible explanations for this effect are considered and attention is drawn to the significance of the resulting errors in boundary-layer turbulence measurements.Now at Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Portsmouth Polytechnic, Anglesea Road, Portsmouth, U.K.Now at Department of Meteorology, University of Athens, Greece.