Identifying the potential loss of monitoring wells using an uncertainty analysis

From the mid-1940s through the 1980s, large volumes of waste water were discharged at the Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State, causing a large-scale rise (>20 m) in the water table. When waste water discharges ceased in 1988, ground water mounds began to dissipate. This caused a large number of wells to go dry and has made it difficult to monitor contaminant plume migration. To identify monitoring wells that will need replacement, a methodology has been developed using a first-order uncertainty analysis with UCODE, a nonlinear parameter estimation code. Using a three-dimensional, finite-element ground water flow code, key parameters were identified by calibrating to historical hydraulic head data. Results from the calibration period were then used to check model predictions by comparing monitoring wells' wet/dry status with field data. This status was analyzed using a methodology that incorporated the 0.3 cumulative probability derived from the confidence and prediction intervals. For comparison, a nonphysically based trend model was also used as a predictor of wells' wet/dry status. Although the numerical model outperformed the trend model, for both models, the central value of the intervals was a better predictor of a wet well status. The prediction interval, however, was more successful at identifying dry wells. Predictions made through the year 2048 indicated that 46% of the wells in the monitoring well network are likely to go dry in areas near the river and where the ground water mound is dissipating.     

Variability of carbon dioxide flux from tropical (Cerrado) hydroelectric reservoirs

Hydroelectric reservoirs generate energy without significant combustion of fossil fuels. However, these systems can, potentially, emit greenhouse gases (GHG’s) at a rate which may be significant at the global scale, and, possible, co-equal, per kilowatt-hour, to that from conventional coal or oil-fired systems. Although much of the new construction of hydroelectric reservoirs is in the tropics, most of the data on GHG emissions comes from temperate regions. Further, much of the existing data on reservoir gas emissions comes from single sites, usually near the terminal dams. Large tropical reservoirs often involve the impoundments of river systems with complex morphology which in turn can cause spatial heterogeneity in gas flux. We evaluated spatial and seasonal variability in CO₂ concentrations and gas flux for five large (50–1,400 km²) reservoirs in the Cerrado region of Brazil. Most of data set (87% of all measurements) showed CO₂ supersaturation and net efflux to the atmosphere. There was as much or more variation in pCO₂ over space and among seasons. The large studied reservoirs showed different zones in terms of CO₂ emission because those fluxes are dependent on flooded biomass, watershed input of organic matter and dam operation regime. Here we demonstrate that the reservoirs in the Brazilian Cerrado have low rates of CO₂ emissions compared to existing global comparisons. Our results suggest that ignoring the spatial variability can lead to more than 25% error in total system gas flux.     

CO2 Mitigation by Agriculture: An Overview

Agriculture currently contributes significantly to the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, primarily through the conversion of native ecosystems to agricultural uses in the tropics. Yet there are major opportunities for mitigation of CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions through changes in the use and management of agricultural lands. Agricultural mitigation options can be broadly divided into two categories: (I) strategies to maintain and increase stocks of organic C in soils (and biomass), and (ii) reductions in fossil C consumption, including reduced emissions by the agricultural sector itself and through agricultural production of biofuels to substitute for fossil fuels.Reducing the conversion of new land to agriculture in the tropics could substantially reduce CO2 emissions, but this option faces several difficult issues including population increase, land tenure and other socio-political factors in developing countries. The most significant opportunities for reducing tropical land conversions are in the humid tropics and in tropical wetlands. An important linkage is to improve the productivity and sustainability of existing agricultural lands in these regions.Globally, we estimate potential agricultural CO2 mitigation through soil C sequestration to be 0.4-0.9 Pg C y-1, through better management of existing agricultural soils, restoration of degraded lands, permanent "set-asides" of surplus agricultural lands in temperate developed countries and restoration of 10-20% of former wetlands now being used for agriculture. However, soils have a finite capacity to store additional C and therefore any increases in C stocks following changes in management would be largely realized within 50-100 years.Mitigation potential through reducing direct agricultural emissions is modest, 0.01-0.05 Pg C y-1. However, the potential to offset fossil C consumption through the use of biofuels produced by agriculture is substantial, 0.5-1.6 Pg C y-1, mainly through the production of dedicated biofuel crops with a smaller contribution (0.2-0.3 Pg C y-1) from crop residues.Many agricultural mitigation options represent "win-win" situations, in that there are important side benefits, in addition to CO2 mitigation, that could be achieved, e.g. improved soil fertility with higher soil organic matter, protection of lands poorly suited for permanent agriculture, cost saving for fossil fuel inputs and diversification of agricultural production (e.g. biofuels). However, the needs for global food production and farmer/societal acceptability suggest that mitigation technologies should conform to: (I) the enhancement of agricultural production levels in parts of the world where food production and population demand are in delicate balance and (ii) the accrual of additional benefits to the farmer (e.g., reduced labor, reduced or more efficient use of inputs) and society at large.     

Grassland biogeochemistry: Links to atmospheric processes

Regional modeling is an essential step in scaling plot measurements of biogeochemical cycling to global scales for use in coupled atmosphere-biosphere studies. We present a model of carbon and nitrogen biogeochemistry for the U.S. Central Grasslands region based on laboratory, field, and modeling studies. Model simulations of the geography of C and N biogeochemistry adequately fit observed data. Model results show geographic patterns of cycling rates and element storage to be a complex function of the interaction of climatic and soil properties. The model also includes regional trace gas simulation, providing a link between studies of atmospheric geochemistry and ecosystem function. The model simulates nitrogenous trace gas emission rates as a function of N turnover and indicates that they are variable across the grasslands. We studied effects of changing climate using information from a global climate model. Simulations showed that increases in temperature and associated changes in precipitation caused increases in decomposition and long-term emission of Co₂ from grassland soils. Nutrient release associated with the loss of soil organic matter caused increases in net primary production, demonstrating that nutrient interactions are a major control over vegetation response to climate change.     

The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey: the dependence of galaxy clustering on luminosity and spectral type

We investigate the dependence of galaxy clustering on luminosity and spectral type using the 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey (2dFGRS). Spectral types are assigned using the principal-component analysis of Madgwick et al. We divide the sample into two broad spectral classes: galaxies with strong emission lines ('late types') and more quiescent galaxies ('early types'). We measure the clustering in real space, free from any distortion of the clustering pattern owing to peculiar velocities, for a series of volume-limited samples. The projected correlation functions of both spectral types are well described by a power law for transverse separations in the range  2<( σ / h ^-1 Mpc)<15  , with a marginally steeper slope for early types than late types. Both early and late types have approximately the same dependence of clustering strength on luminosity, with the clustering amplitude increasing by a factor of ∼2.5 between L * and 4 L *. At all luminosities, however, the correlation function amplitude for the early types is ∼50 per cent higher than that of the late types. These results support the view that luminosity, and not type, is the dominant factor in determining how the clustering strength of the whole galaxy population varies with luminosity.     

Analytical scanning and transmission electron microscopy of laboratory impacts on Stardust aluminum foils: Interpreting impact crater morphology and the composition of impact residues

Abstract— The known encounter velocity (6.1 kms^?1) and particle incidence angle (perpendicular) between the Stardust spacecraft and the dust emanating from the nucleus of comet Wild‐2 fall within a range that allows simulation in laboratory light‐gas gun (LGG) experiments designed to validate analytical methods for the interpretation of dust impacts on the aluminum foil components of the Stardust collector. Buckshot of a wide size, shape, and density range of mineral, glass, polymer, and metal grains, have been fired to impact perpendicularly on samples of Stardust Al 1100 foil, tightly wrapped onto aluminum alloy plate as an analogue of foil on the spacecraft collector. We have not yet been able to produce laboratory impacts by projectiles with weak and porous aggregate structure, as may occur in some cometary dust grains. In this report we present information on crater gross morphology and its dependence on particle size and density, the pre‐existing major‐ and trace‐element composition of the foil, geometrical issues for energy dispersive X‐ray analysis of the impact residues in scanning electron microscopes, and the modification of dust chemical composition during creation of impact craters as revealed by analytical transmission electron microscopy. Together, these observations help to underpin the interpretation of size, density, and composition for particles impacted on the Stardust aluminum foils.     

Magnetic field in a cavity of a perfect diamagnetic material

A new method using an integral equation has been proposed in this paper for calculating the magnetic field enclosed within a perfect diamagnetic material. A magnetic field is assumed to exist inside an arbitrary cavity in a perfect diamagnetic material. Self-consistent magnetic fields inside the cavity and currents on its surface are calculated, resulting as it should in zero magnetic field outside the cavity. This method has been tested in a special case and the results have been compared to the analytical solutions. This method should be also applicable to any case concerning the interaction between magnetic fields and perfect diamagnetic materials, e.g., to cases where a perfect diamagnetic material is surrounded by a magnetic field.     

Modelling Dust in Galactic SEDs: Application to Semi-Analytical Galaxy Formation Models

We present the basic features and preliminary results of the interface between our spectrophotometric model GRASIL (which calculates galactic SEDs from the UV to the submm with a detailed computation of dust extinction and thermal reemission) with the semi-analytical galaxy formation model GALFORM (which computes galaxy formation and evolution in the hierarchical scenario, providing the star formation history as an input to our model). With these two models we are able to synthesize simulated samples of a few thousand galaxies for statistical studies of galaxy properties to investigate galaxy formation and evolution. There is good agreement with the available SED and luminosity function data. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.