Climate change, tree species distributions and forest dynamics: A case study in the mixed conifer/northern hardwoods zone of northern Europe

Three bioclimate variables (growing degree days after budburst, temperature of the coldest month and a moisture index) are used in a model (STASH) to predict potential range limits of north European tree species. CO₂-induced climate warming scenarios cause major changes in these limits. The dominant conifers of the mixed conifer/northern hardwoods zone, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris, retreat from the south and west while Fagus sylvatica and other temperate hardwoods spread to the north. A gap model (FORSKA 2) is used to simulate the associated transient responses of a forest reserve within this zone. In both dry Pinus- and moist Picea- dominated forest communities, Picea continues to increase while Pinus sooner or later declines. These changes are continuing successional (non-climatic) responses to the cessation of disturbance 150 years ago. Climate warming speeds up the succession, and allows Fagus to establish and increase. The eventual decline of Picea however is delayed due to the persistence of old-growth stands. Picea forests subject to continuing disturbance show a more rapid shift to dominance by Fagus and other temperate hardwoods. Delayed immigration of new species, including Fagus, would favour earlysuccessional species such as Betula pendula and Quercus spp. in a forest with reduced biomass and diversity. The results emphasise the complex and sometimes counter-intuitive nature of transient responses, and the importance of considering disturbance history and potential migration rates when predicting the impacts of rapid climate change on forests.     

河北省南部邯郸-邢台地区西石门矽卡岩型铁矿床金云母40Ar-39 Ar定年及意义

西石门铁矿是河北省南部邯郸.邢台地区最大的矽卡岩型铁矿。主要矿石矿物为磁铁矿。对矿石中与磁铁矿共生的金云母的~(40)Ar-~(39)Ar同位素测年结果表明,样品的坪年龄为133.1±1.3Ma,相对应的等时线年龄为133.6±2.5Ma,表明西石门铁矿形成于早白垩世。与宁芜玢岩铁矿和山东莱芜、金岭等地矽卡岩铁矿形成时间一致或相近,其形成的构造背景为岩石圈大规模减薄。     

同位素^131I测西台吉乃尔湖矿区含水层地质参数

盐湖区的水文地质参数特性与淡水区迥然不同。同位素示踪法可以利用西台盐湖区已有的长现井,机动灵活的随时监测含水层水文地质参数;由于介质的特殊性以及卤水性质的垂直差异性,造成水文地质参数的时空可变性;测试结果表明,对于完整井以及深的非完整井,该方法切实有效,但对于很浅的非完整井,测试结果具有很大的随机性。最后,根据测试结果以及有关的水文地质资料,把研究区分成7个渗透系数分区。     

Effects of shield brine on the safe disposal of waste in deep geologic environments

The salinity of groundwater increases with depth in the Canadian Shield (up to 1.3 kg/L of density). The existence of brine can be critically important for the safe geologic disposal of radioactive wastes, as dense brine can significantly retard the upward migration of radionuclides released from repositories. Static and flushing conditions of the deep brine are analyzed using a U-tube analogy model. Velocity reduction due to the presence of dense brine is derived under flushing conditions. A set of illustrative numerical simulations in a two-dimensional cross section is presented to demonstrate that dense brine can significantly influence regional groundwater flow patterns in a shield environment. It is implied from the results that (1) the existence of Shield brine can be an indicator of a hydrogeologically stable environment, (2) activities near ground surface may not perturb the stable groundwater environment in the deep brine region, and thus, (3) the deep brine region can be considered as a candidate geologic site for the safe disposal of waste. In addition to brine, other issues associated with long-term waste disposal, such as geological, glacial and seismic events, may need to be considered for the safe storage of spent nuclear fuel in a shield environment.     

Modelling Regional Climate Change Effects On Potential Natural Ecosystems in Sweden

This study aims to demonstrate the potential of a process-based regional ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, driven by climate scenarios generated by a regional climate model system (RCM) to generate predictions useful for assessing effects of climatic and CO₂ change on the key ecosystem services of carbon uptake and storage. Scenarios compatible with the A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and with boundary conditions from two general circulation models (GCMs) – HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 – were used in simulations to explore changes in tree species distributions, vegetation structure, productivity and ecosystem carbon stocks for the late 21st Century, thus accommodating a proportion of the GCM-based and emissions-based uncertainty in future climate development. The simulations represented in this study were of the potential natural vegetation ignoring direct anthropogenic effects. Results suggest that shifts in climatic zones may lead to changes in species distribution and community composition among seven major tree species of natural Swedish forests. All four climate scenarios were associated with an extension of the boreal forest treeline with respect to altitude and latitude. In the boreal and boreo-nemoral zones, the dominance of Norway spruce and to a lesser extent Scots pine was reduced in favour of deciduous broadleaved tree species. The model also predicted substantial increases in vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), especially in central Sweden. Expansion of forest cover and increased local biomass enhanced the net carbon sink over central and northern Sweden, despite increased carbon release through decomposition processes in the soil. In southern Sweden, reduced growing season soil moisture levels counterbalanced the positive effects of a longer growing season and increased carbon supply on NPP, with the result that many areas were converted from a sink to a source of carbon by the late 21st century. The economy-oriented A2 emission scenario would lead to higher NPP and stronger carbon sinks according to the simulations than the environment-oriented B2 scenario.     

An example of fingerprint detection of greenhouse climate change

As an example of the technique of fingerprint detection of greenhouse climate change, a multivariate signal or fingerprint of the enhanced greenhouse effect is defined using the zonal mean atmospheric temperature change as a function of height and latitude between equilibrium climate model simulations with control and doubled CO₂ concentrations. This signal is compared with observed atmospheric temperature variations over the period 1963 to 1988 from radiosonde-based global analyses. There is a significant increase of this greenhouse signal in the observational data over this period.These results must be treated with caution. Upper air data are available for a short period only, possibly too short to be able to resolve any real greenhouse climate change. The greenhouse fingerprint used in this study may not be unique to the enhanced greenhouse effect and may be due to other forcing mechanisms. However, it is shown that the patterns of atmospheric temperature change associated with uniform global increases of sea surface temperature, with El NinoSouthern Oscillation events and with decreases of stratospheric ozone concentrations individually are different from the greenhouse fingerprint used here.     

陕南勉略宁地区铜厂闪长岩岩石地球化学及SHRIMP锆石 U-Pb同位素年代学

本文对位于陕南勉略宁地区铜厂铜矿区与铜成矿作用有关的闪长岩进行了系统的岩石学、锆石U-Pb年代学和地球化学研究,讨论铜厂岩体的岩石成因、成岩物质来源及其地质意义和与铜厂铜矿床的关系.研究结果表明,铜厂闪长岩属于钙碱性-低钾岩系列岩石,以富大离子亲石元素和贫高场强元素为特征,其稀土配分模式为具Eu负异常和Ce异常不明显的轻稀土富集型,与碧口群海相火山岩具有一定相似性和继承性.闪长岩主要来源于壳源或曾受到地壳物质的强烈混染,并没有经历过显著的结晶分异演化,且与铜成矿有密切的关系,为该区主要成矿物质来源之一.岩体形成的大地构造背景属于碰撞隆起-岛弧火山,成矿作用晚于岩体侵入.铜厂闪长岩的锆石SHRIMP U-Pb同位素年龄为842±6.5Ma,早于秦岭造山带的主造山期.该区晋宁期俯冲-挤压造山作用,形成了碧口岩群岛弧火山岩系,铜厂闪长岩可能属于地层.碧口群细碧角斑岩末期火山侵入杂岩,由碧口群火山岩的局部熔融作用形成,其轻稀土的相对富集可能与岩体继承源岩的稀土特征有关.     

The Cosmic Lens All-Sky Survey – II. Gravitational lens candidate selection and follow-up

We report the final results of the search for gravitationally lensed flat-spectrum radio sources found in the combination of CLASS (Cosmic Lens All-Sky Survey) and JVAS (Jodrell Bank VLA Astrometric Survey). VLA (Very Large Array) observations of 16 503 sources have been made, resulting in the largest sample of arcsec-scale lens systems available. Contained within the 16 503 sources is a complete sample of 11 685 sources which have two-point spectral indices between 1.4 and 5 GHz flatter than −0.5, and 5-GHz flux densities  ≥30 mJy  . A subset of 8958 sources form a well-defined statistical sample suitable for analysis of the lens statistics. We describe the systematic process by which 149 candidate lensed sources were picked from the statistical sample on the basis of possessing multiple compact components in the 0.2-arcsec resolution VLA maps. Candidates were followed up with 0.05-arcsec resolution MERLIN and 0.003-arcsec VLBA observations at 5 GHz and rejected as lens systems if they failed well-defined surface brightness and/or morphological tests. To illustrate the candidate elimination process, we show examples of sources representative of particular morphologies that have been ruled out by the follow-up observations. 194 additional candidates, not in the well-defined sample, were also followed up. Maps for all the candidates can be found on the World Wide Web at http://www.jb.man.ac.uk/research/gravlens/index.html . We summarize the properties of each of the 22 gravitational lens systems in JVAS/CLASS. 12 are double-image systems, nine are four-image systems and one is a six-image system. 13 constitute a statistically well-defined sample giving a point-source lensing rate of  1:690 ± 190  . The interpretation of the results in terms of the properties of the lensing galaxy population and cosmological parameters will be published elsewhere.     

Photometric analysis of 1 Ceres and surface mapping from HST observations

The highest resolution (pixel scale 30 km) images of Ceres to date have been acquired by the Advanced Camera for Surveys onboard Hubble Space Telescope, through three wide band filters, centered at 535, 335, and 223 nm, covering more than one rotation of Ceres. The lightcurve at 535 nm agrees with earlier observations at V-band [Tedesco, E.F., Taylor, R.C., Drummond, J., Harwood, D., Nickoloff, I., Scaltriti, F., Schober, H. J., Zappala, V., 1983. Icarus 54, 23-29] in terms of magnitude, amplitude, and shape. The 0.04 magnitude lightcurve amplitude cannot be matched by Ceres' rotationally symmetric shape, and is modeled here by albedo patterns. The geometric albedos at the above three wavelengths are measured to be 0.087±0.003, 0.056±0.002, and 0.039±0.003, respectively. V-band geometric albedo is calculated to be 0.090±0.003, consistent with earlier observations [Tedesco, E.F., 1989. In: Binzel, R.P., Gehrels, T., Matthews, M.S. (Eds.), Asteroids II. Univ. of Arizona Press, Tucson, pp. 1090-1138]. A strong absorption band (30%) centered at about 280 nm is observed, but cannot be identified with either laboratory UV spectra or the spectra of Europa or Ganymede. The single-scattering albedo has been modeled to be 0.070±0.002, 0.046±0.002, and 0.032±0.003, respectively. The photometric roughness of Ceres' surface is found to be about 44°±5° from photometric modeling using Hapke's theory, consistent with earlier radar observations [Mitchell, D.L., Ostro, S.J., Hudson, R.S., Rosema, K.D., Campbell, D.B., Velez, R., Chandler, J. F., Shapiro, I.I., Giorgini, J.D., Yeomans, D.K., 1996. Icarus 124, 113-133]. The first spatially resolved surface albedo maps of Ceres at three wavelengths have been constructed from HST observations, as well as the corresponding color maps. Eleven surface albedo features are identified, ranging in scale from 40-350 km. Overall the range of these albedo and color variations is small compared to other asteroids and some icy satellites.