Impact of Sea-level Rise and Storm Surges on a Coastal Community

A technique to evaluate the risk of storm tides (the combination of a storm surge and tide) under present and enhanced greenhouse conditions has been applied to Cairns on the north-eastern Australian coast. The technique combines a statistical model for cyclone occurrence with a state-of-the-art storm surge inundation model and involves the random generation of a large number of storm tide simulations. The set of simulations constitutes a synthetic record of extreme sea-level events that can be analysed to produce storm tide return periods. The use of a dynamic storm surge model with overland flooding capability means that the spatial extent of flooding is also implicitly modelled. The technique has the advantage that it can readily be modified to include projected changes to cyclone behaviour due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Sea-level heights in the current climate for return periods of 50, 100, 500 and 1000 years have been determined to be 2.0 m, 2.3 m, 3.0 m and 3.4 m respectively. In an enhanced greenhouse climate (around 2050), projected increases in cyclone intensity and mean sea-level see these heights increase to 2.4 m, 2.8 m, 3.8 m and 4.2 m respectively. The average area inundated by events with a return period greater than 100 years is found to more than double under enhanced greenhouse conditions.     

First data on U-Pb SHRIMP-II isotopic dating based on zircons of ash sediments from Cenozoic depressions in Southwest of Primorie

U-Pb (SHRIMP-II) isotopic dating has been conducted for zircons of the ash sediments of the Ust’-Suifun Suite, which was the final stage of Late Cenozoic explosive volcanism in Southwest Primorskii krai. These pyroclastic units are widespread within sediments that fill in Cenozoic depressions including large coalfields. The concordant dates (23.7–24.6 Ma) are in line with the results of the K-Ar determinations for volcanic tephra (23.6–27.1 Ma) and correspond to the beginning of the active phase of spreading and taphrogenesis in the neighboring Trench of the Sea of Japan. These processes started as early as the Eocene and are reflected in the continental vicinity with the formation of riftogenic depressions and the occurrence of a peculiar gas volcanism.     

Peculiarities of Dynamic Slip Nucleation in a Thin Granular Layer

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Abstract—Granular media determine the dynamics of many natural systems including faults in the Earth’s crust. The paper addresses the laboratory...     

State of stress in the northern Tabas block, east-central Iran, as inferred from focal mechanisms of the 1978 Tabas earthquake sequence

In this paper, the state of stress in the northern Tabas block in east-central Iran is analyzed based on the systematic inversion of aftershock focal mechanisms from the 1978.09.16 Tabas earthquake, to characterise the stress regime that controls most earthquakes in this area. Here, stress inversions of double-couple focal mechanisms of earthquakes recorded during the 30 days following the main shock have been carried out. The calculated average stress regime indicates dominant major 226° to 237° trending compression for the Tabas region. The dominating regime in east-central Iran is thrusting with a minimum stress axis, σ ₃, close to vertical. The reconstruction of the main seismotectonic stress in east-central Iran with a NE-SW compression is consistent with independent information of the active plate convergence related to Arabia-Eurasia convergence. Most earthquakes in the mentioned area occur near or around concealed Quaternary thrust faults with their activity being controlled by the NE-SW compression. Where ?, the ratio of principal stress differences, is 0.5, a small difference between σ ₂; σ ₃ and σ ₁ and small amounts of deviatoric stress is indicated. Therefore, for small deviatoric horizontal σ ₁ it is not possible to increase and reactivate small sections of basement thrust faults and create secondary basement aftershocks. Reconstructed stress regimes in this study for sedimentary cover (237) and basement (226) of Tabas are similar. Therefore, it seems that the basement and cover were coupled together, possibly along the 2–4 km of upper Precambrian low-grade metamorphic rocks. Then these segments of the fold-and-thrust belt were involved in similar seismic activity under a similar stress regime.     

The evolution of regional development concepts: some new trends

This paper traces the theoretical development of the regional concept and the use of regionalization techniques in Soviet geography and seeks to compare this history with comparable trends in Western geography. It is severely critical of the major and rapid paradigm shifts noticed in post-war Western geographical science and relates these to shifts in the approach to global development issues.     

The interpretation of body trace metal concentrations in neogastropods from Hong Kong.

Three species of neogastropods, i.e., Thais clavigera, Thais luteostoma and Morula musiva, were collected from 12 sites in the coastal waters of Hong Kong, including clean and known metal-enriched ones. Accordingly, body trace metal concentrations varied greatly. Copper and zinc body concentrations compared poorly with those of accepted biomonitors and presumed metal contamination profiles. Much is known about the feeding ecology of neogastropods on local shores and where direct observational data were not available, their diets could, nevertheless, be estimated reliably. Accumulated metal concentrations can be interpreted with regard to dietary history. T. luteostoma, for example, had body copper concentrations of 51.8 microg g(-1) on an exposed shore and a diet of mainly barnacles. In contrast, on a sheltered shore (but only some 250 m distant) where the diet consisted mainly of oysters, body copper concentrations were approximately 15 times greater at 833 microg g(-1). Similar results were obtained for T. clavigera. The results of this analysis suggest that neogastropods can play a significant role in trace metal trophic transfer studies, especially as their representatives are intertidally and subtidally ubiquitous and can be spatially separated into tropical specialists and temperate generalists.     

Marine risk assessment: linear alkylbenzenesulponates (LAS) in the North Sea

The fate of linear alkylbenzenesulponates (LAS) in estuaries and coastal areas of the North Sea has been characterized with simple environmental models. The predicted concentration range in the estuaries around the North Sea (0.9-9 microg LAS l(-1)) was validated by monitoring data (1-9 microg LAS l(-1)). In offshore sites of the North Sea, it is estimated--and experimentally verified for a few sites--that the LAS concentration is below analytical detection limit (i.e., 0.5 microg LAS l(-1)). The effects of LAS on marine organisms have been reviewed. For short-term acute tests, there was no significant difference (p = 0.83) between the mean LC50 values of freshwater and marine organisms (mainly pelagic species tested, 4.1 and 4.3 mg LAS l(-1), respectively). For longer-term chronic tests, it appeared that the sensitivity (mean no-observed effect concentration (NOEC) value) of marine and freshwater organisms (0.3 and 2.3 mg LAS l(-1), respectively) was significantly different pt-test = 0.007). The predicted no-effect-concentrations (PNEC) were 360 and 31 microg LAS l(-1), for freshwater and marine pelagic communities, respectively. Given that the maximum expected estuarine and marine concentrations are 3 to > 30 times lower than the PNEC, the risk of LAS to pelagic organisms in these environments is judged to be low.     

Invasions in Marine Communities: Contrasting Species Richness and Community Composition Across Habitats and Salinity

While many studies of non-native species have examined either soft-bottom or hard-bottom marine communities, including artificial structures at docks and marinas, formal comparisons across these habitat types are rare. The number of non-indigenous species (NIS) may differ among habitats, due to differences in species delivery (trade history) and susceptibility to invasions. In this study, we quantitatively compared NIS to native species richness and distribution and examined community similarity across hard-bottom and soft-sediment habitats in San Francisco Bay, California (USA). Benthic invertebrates were sampled using settlement panels (hard-bottom habitats) and sediment grabs (soft-bottom habitats) in 13 paired sites, including eight in higher salinity areas and five in lower salinity areas during 2 years. Mean NIS richness was greatest in hard-bottom habitat at high salinity, being significantly higher than each (a) native species at high salinity and (b) NIS richness at low salinity. In contrast, mean NIS richness in soft-bottom communities was not significantly different from native species richness in either high- or low-salinity waters, nor was there a difference in NIS richness between salinities. For hard-bottom communities, NIS represented an average of 79% of total species richness per sample at high salinity and 78% at low salinity, whereas the comparable values for soft bottom were 46 and 60%, respectively. On average, NIS occurred at a significantly higher frequency (percent of samples) than native species for hard-bottom habitats at both salinities, but this was not the case for soft-bottom habitats. Finally, NIS contributed significantly to the existing community structure (dissimilarity) across habitat types and salinities. Our results show that NIS richness and occurrence frequency is highest in hard-bottom and high-salinity habitat for this Bay but also that NIS contribute strongly to species richness and community structure across each habitat evaluated.