A decade of change in the Skidaway River estuary I. Hydrography and nutrients

The Skidaway River estuary is a tidally-dominated subtropical estuary in the southeastern USA surrounded by extensiveSpartina salt marshes. Weekly smapling at high and low tide began in 1986 for hydrography, nutrients, chlorophylla, particulate matter, and microbial and plankton biomass and composition; hydrographic and nutrient data during 1986–1996 are reported here. Salinity varied inversely with river discharge and exhibited variability at all time scales but with no long-term trend. Water temperature typically ranged over 25°C and was without apparent long-term frend. Seasonal cycles in concentrations of NO₃, NH₄, PO₄, Si(OH)₄, and DON were observed, with annual maxima generally occurring in late summer. Superimposed on seasonal cycles, all five nutrients exhibited steady increases in minimum, mean, and maximum concentrations; mean concentrations increased c. 50–150% during the decade. Nutrient concentrations were highly correlated with water temperature over the ten-year period, but weakly related to salinity and discharge. Nutrients were strongly correlated with one another, and the relative ratios among inorganic nutrients showed little long-term trend. Correlations among temperature and nutrient concentrations exhibited considerable inter-annual variability. Major spikes in organic and inorganic nutrient concentrations coincided with significant rainfall events; concentrations increased hyperbolically with rainfall. Although pristine compared to more heavily impacted waterways primarily outside the region, residential development and population density have been increasing rapidly during the past 15–20 years. Land use is apparently altering nutrient loading over the long-term (months-years), and superimposed on this are stochastic meteorological events that accelerate these changes over the short term (days-weeks).     

Flushing of dense, hypoxic water from a cavity of the Swan River estuary, Western Australia

Flushing of dense water from cavities of the upper reaches of the Swan River estuary in Western Australia was investigated using measured salinity and dissolved oxygen profiles and a two-dimensional, laterally averaged hydrodynamic model (TISAT). Seasonal flushing of dense, hypoxic bottom waters from a relatively deep site took place over ∼3 days at the onset of winter in 1994. Model simulations of the purging of this dense water did not correspond closely with changes in the densimetric Froude number. Purging, expressed as depth of the halocline as a fraction of the total cavity depth, occurred when the simulated mean horizontal velocity at 2 m depth (top of cavity) changed from negative to strongly positive, indicating arrest of upstream flow and continuous downstream flow. This corresponded to freshwater discharge of about 50 m³ s⁻¹. Oxygen depletion of bottom waters was closely related to stratification. Oxygen dynamics at the onset of winter river flow was analysed using an exponential decay model, assuning that there was no net inflow or outflow across the halocline and thus no vertical transport of oxygen during a period of strong stratification. The rate constant for oxygen decay at Ron Courtney Island (RCI) was estimated to be 0.232 d⁻¹ for this period. Bottom waters at RCI declined to less than 1 mg 1⁻¹ prior to complete flushing through increased river flows. This study provided in sights to how freshwater flows may be allocated to maintain suitable oxygen levels in the bottom waters of estuarine cavities.     

Multiple stressors in an estuarine system: Effects of nutrients, trace elements, and trophic complexity on benthic photosynthesis and respiration

The effects of nutrients, trace elements, and trophic complexity on benthic photosynthesis and respriation were studied in the Paxtuxent River estuary near St. Leonard, Maryland. Experiments were conducted over three years (1995–1997) in mesocosms containing riverine sediment and water. The experimental design was 2×2×3 factorial with two levels of nutrients (ambient and + nutrients), two of trace elements (ambient and + trace elements) and three of trophic complexity (plankton, plankton + fish, and plankton + fish + benthos). Trace elements included arsenic (As), copper (Cu), and cadmium (Cd). The experiment was conducted three times in 1995 and 1997 and four times in 1996. In 1995 and 1996, sediments were muddy, while in the final year sediments were sandy. In mesocoms with sandy sediments, nutrient additions increased benthic photosynthesis overall, while trace element additions increased benthic photosynthesis in two of three experimental runs. Benthic photosynthesis in these mesocosms appeared to be related to nitrogen loading. Benthic respiration increased in nutrient and trace element amended mesocosms with sandy sediments, apparently in response to higher benthic photosynthesis. Increasing trophic complexity, particularly the presence of benthic organisms, also increased benthic respiration in mesocosms with sandy sediments. There were no effects of nutrient or trace element additions on benthic photosynthesis and respiration when the sediments were muddy. The lack of consistent responses to nutrient additions was surprising given that benthic respiration rates (and presumably nutrient regeneration) were similar in all three years, regardless of sediment type. Muddy, sediments did not mask, the effects of nutrient addition by supplying more nutrients to benthic microalgae than sandy sediments. In 1996, the presence of filter feeding bivalves increased the relative heterotrophy of sediments, measured as production: respiration. Consistent with increased heterotrophy, effluxes of ammonium and soluble reactive phosphorus from sediments were greater in mesocosms containing benthic organisms. Anthropogenically-induced changes in estuaries, such as loading of nutrients and trace elements or reduced trophic complexity, can have important effects on benthic processes and potentially pelagic processes through feedback mechanisms.     

Iterative resolution estimation in least‐squares Kirchhoff migration

We apply iterative resolution estimation to least‐squares Kirchhoff migration. Reviewing the theory of iterative optimization uncovers the common origin of different optimization methods. This allows us to reformulate the pseudo‐inverse, model resolution and data resolution operators in terms of effective iterative estimates. When applied to Kirchhoff migration, plots of the diagonal of the model resolution matrix reveal low illumination areas on seismic images and provide information about image uncertainties. Synthetic and real data examples illustrate the proposed technique and confirm the theoretical expectations.     

The use of modern statistical theories in the assessment of earthquake hazard, with application to quiet regions of eastern North America

It is generally accepted that both deterministic and statistical approaches are useful for the characterization of earthquake hazard. Although the most reliable estimates of seismic hazard can only be based on an improved understanding of the earthquake mechanism, efficient utilization of the appropriate methods provided by recent statistical theories is also important in seismic risk analysis. This is especially true in regions where the connection between seismicity and geologic structure is tenuous at best. We are particularly interested in developing better statistical treatments of data for regions with little known seismic activity. To this end, we have applied three statistical methods to the historical record of seismicity in relatively quiet regions of eastern North America. These are: (1) the threshold method for tail inference, a new theory for modeling earthquakes with sizes above a given threshold, (2) the ‘bootstrap’ technique in which the characteristics of an unknown population are simulated by replacing the true population by an estimated one, and (3) a technique to estimate the number of earthquakes below a given size, in order to compensate for the under-reporting of small earthquakes in most catalogs. A combination of these techniques has been used to estimate the probabilities of future large earthquakes for the regions studied. Because of limitations imposed by existing catalogs, the size estimate used has been maximum intensity.     

Relationships between tissue concentrations of chlorinated hydrocarbons (polychlorinated biphenyls and chlorinated pesticides) and antioxidative responses of marine mussels, Perna viridis

Marine mussels, Perna viridis, were transplanted from a reference site to various polluted sites around Hong Kong. After 30 d of exposure, antioxidative responses in the gills and hepatopancreas and tissue concentrations of chlorinated hydrocarbons [polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and chlorinated pesticides (CPs)] were determined for individual mussels. Glutathione S transferase (GST) and glutathione (GSH) were positively correlated with tissue PCB concentrations. Only one of the enzymatic antioxidants, glutathione peroxidase (GPx), showed significant response to tissue PCB. No significant correlation was found between tissue concentrations of chlorinated hydrocarbons and other enzymatic antioxidants (superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT), glutathione reductase (GR) and NADPH DT-diaphorase (DT-d). Oxidative stress, measured as thiobarbituric acid reactive substances, was correlated with chlorinated pesticide concentrations in tissues. This study demonstrated a correlation between GST/GSH and chlorinated hydrocarbons. The apparent lack of correlation between trace organic pollutants and some of the enzymatic antioxidants may be due to the inhibitory effects caused by these chemicals. The above results suggest that more investigations are needed before these enzymes can be used as biomarkers.     

Solar–terrestrial effects possibly stronger in biblical times

Paleomagnetic studies have shown that, moving backwards in time, the geomagnetic dipole moment increased to a peak nearly 50% greater than at present ca. 2500 years ago. Attempts to model how changes in dipole moment affect solar–terrestrial relations have hitherto invoked a scaling relation for the size of the magnetosphere based on finding where the magnetic pressure of the dipole field balances the ram pressure of the solar wind. This approach predicts that, following a solar storm, the strength of the terrestrial response represented by the electrical potential across the auroral zones in the ionosphere should vary as the 1/3 power of dipole moment. Such a weak dependence suggests that a 50% increase in dipole moment would minimally effect (14%) terrestrial manifestations of solar storms. Recent work, however, based on a feedback mechanism involving electrical currents coupling the magnetosphere and ionosphere has identified a stronger 4/3, power scaling relation applicable to storm conditions. Here we use a global MHD simulation to calculate for a 50% increased dipole moment the correspondingly increased auroral-zone potential and its extension to low latitudes.     

Modelling of meteorological conditions at an urban scale for the PUMA winter campaign

For the winter 2000 campaign of the Pollution of Urban Midlands Atmosphere project, observation and numerical modelling of meteorological conditions over the West Midlands conurbation, UK, was undertaken. Modelling was performed using the regional atmospheric meteorological system (RAMS). This paper presents a comparison of modelled and observed wind and temperature for 25 and 26 January 2000. The RAMS model uses two nested grids with a mesh size of 2 km for the inner grid which is embedded in the outer grid with a mesh size of 8 km. Statistical evaluation of the model results against the observational data of wind speed, direction and temperature at 10 m was conducted. In general, the modelling results are in a reasonable agreement with observation. The statistical evaluation suggests that model performance is poorer for the inner grid than the outer grid as the model uncertainties (mainly mean bias) transfer from the outer to inner one. The low indices of agreement of temperature and wind are mainly associated with the systematic root-mean-square-difference values. For temperature, the systematic bias may also be affected by representation of cloud amount by the model. For wind, the model tends to have a poor performance for calm conditions, as under a stable anti-cyclonic situation local wind patterns associated with topography may develop, although the topography of the region is relatively flat. The results for the inner grid reveal some subtle spatial patterns at a scale smaller than 10 km near hills and valleys with differences in elevation of a few hundred metres.     

Predicting average annual groundwater levels from climatic variables: an empirical model

On the basis of one-dimensional theoretical water flow model, we demonstrate that the groundwater level variation follows a pattern similar to recharge fluctuation, with a time delay that depends on the characteristics of aquifer, recharge pattern as well as the distance between the recharge and observation locations. On the basis of a water budget model and the groundwater flow model, we propose an empirical model that links climatic variables to groundwater level. The empirical model is tested using a partial data set from historical records of water levels from more than 80 wells in a monitoring network for the carbonate rock aquifer, southern Manitoba, Canada. The testing results show that the predicted groundwater levels are very close to the observed ones in most cases. The overall average correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed water levels is 0.92. This proposed empirical statistical model could be used to predict variations in groundwater level in response to different climate scenarios in a climate change impact assessment.