Using Spatial Statistics to Examine the Pattern of Urban Land Development in Halifax–Dartmouth

This article examines the locational patterns of population and employment and the resultant changes in urban form in the Halifax–Dartmouth region between 1970 and 1996. The article employs the univariate and bivariate K function to measure spatial dependence or clustering within and between the classes of residential and commercial land parcels. The results of the K function estimates suggest that residential land parcels cluster together, commercial land parcels cluster together, and residential and commercial land parcels have become more clustered over time. Evidence of clustering provides insight into the changing urban form of the region and possible multinucleation.     

Spatial Variation of Sea Level Trend Along the Bangladesh Coast

The Bangladesh coast is threatened by rising sea level due to various factors. The results based on the analysis of past 22 years of tidal data of the Bangladesh coast reveal that the annual mean tidal level in the eastern Bangladesh coast is rising at an alarmingly high rate of 7.8 mm/year, which is almost twice the observed rate in the western region. This type of sea level trend seems to be the result of changing local conditions like increased precipitation and land subsidence during the recent decades. It seems that the higher rate of land subsidence in the eastern Bangladesh coast is the main causative factor for the steeper sea level trends there. The differential sea level trends show that the subsidence component in the sea level rise may be as high as 4 mm/year in the eastern Bangladesh coast. However, this needs to be verified with actual geological observations.     

Geochemical characteristics of sphagnum brown coal — A possible oil-generating precursor

A preliminary study of newly discovered sphagnum brown coal from the Jingsuo Basin, Yunnan Province, China, which is quite rich in montan wax, indicates the predominance of highern-alkane homologues and aromatized triterpenoid components. Aromatic hydrocarbons are composed mainly of pentacyclic and tetracyclic di-, tri- and tetra-aromatic components, which are obviously diagenetically related to higher plant-derived triterpenoids naturally occurring in the biosphere. Because the sphagnum brown coal still remains in the highly immature stage, it seems that the progressive diagenetic aromatization of the higher plant-derived triterpenoids may start at a very early stage.     

Recycling in the Puerto Rican mantle wedge, Greater Antilles Island Arc

Abstract The initial volcanic phase of Cretaceous island arc strata in central Puerto Rico, at the eastern end of the extinct Greater Antilles Arc, comprises a 6‐km thick pile of lava and volcanic breccia (Río Majada Group). Preserved within the sequence is a conspicuous shift in absolute abundances of the more incompatible elements, including Th, Nb, and the light rare earth elements (LREE: La, Ce, Pr and Nd). The compositional shift is marked by a decrease in La/Sm from averages of 2.11 in the lowest third of the pile (Formation A) to 1.48 at the top (Formation C), and by a distinctive flattening of LREE segments of chondrite‐normalized REE patterns. i⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and ?_Nd average about 0.7035 and 8.2, respectively, in early Formation A basalts. These ranges normally overlap samples from later Formations B and C. Isotope compositions of the latter group are more variable, however, and several samples are considerably more radiogenic than Formation A basalts, such that i⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr averages almost 0.7042 while ?_Nd‐values decrease to 7.5 in Formation B and C basalts. Theoretical models of non‐modal melting processes in both amphibole peridotite and spinel lherzolite sources provide insight into the origin of depleted Th, Nb, and LREE abundances in Puerto Rican basalts. Low Nb concentrations less than normal mid‐oceanic ridge basalts in Formation A basalts indicate the wedge was slightly depleted by low‐volume decompression fusion due to induced convection in the back‐arc region prior to entry of the source into the arc melting zone. However, depleted patterns in Formation C basalts cannot be generated by relatively greater degrees of decompression fusion in the back‐arc, because addition of the La‐enriched slab‐derived component to more depleted source material invariably produces elevated rather than decreased La/Sm. Refluxing of Formation A harzburgitic residua is similarly precluded. In contrast, the observed patterns are readily reproduced by multistage melting models involving hybridized sources containing normal Formation A lherzolite source material blended with recycled, unrefluxed harzburgite residua. Successful models require hybrid sources containing large volumes of recycled harzburgite (up to 50%) during generation of Formation C basalts. Slightly elevated radiometric Sr and Nd isotopes in a few flows from Formation C are attributed to partial refluxing of the hybrid sources within the wedge.     

Estimating climate changes in the northern hemisphere in the 21st century under alternative scenarios of anthropogenic forcing

Possible changes in the climate characteristics of the Northern Hemisphere in the 21st century are estimated using a climate model (developed at the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics (OIAP), Russian Academy of Sciences) under different scenarios of variations in the atmospheric contents of greenhouse gases and aerosols, including those formed at the OIAP on the basis of SRES emission scenarios (group I) and scenarios (group II) developed at the Moscow Power Engineering Institute (MPEI). Over the 21st century, the global annual mean warming at the surface amounts to 1.2?C2.6°C under scenarios I and 0.9?C1.2°C under scenarios II. For all scenarios II, starting from the 2060s, a decrease is observed in the rate of increase in the global mean annual near-surface air temperature. The spatial structures of variations in the mean annual near-surface air temperature in the 21st century, which have been obtained for both groups of scenarios (with smaller absolute values for scenarios II), are similar. Under scenarios I, within the extratropical latitudes, the mean annual surface air temperature increases by 3?C7°C in North America and by 3?C5°C in Eurasia in the 21st century. Under scenarios II, the near-surface air temperature increases by 2?C4°C in North America and by 2?C3°C in Eurasia. An increase in the total amount of precipitation by the end of the 21st century is noted for both groups of scenarios; the most significant increase in the precipitation rate is noted for the land of the Northern Hemisphere. By the late 21st century, the total area of the near-surface permafrost soils of the land of the Northern Hemisphere decreases to 3.9?C9.5 10⁶ km² for scenarios I and 9.7?C11.0 × 10⁶ km² for scenarios II. The decrease in the area of near-surface permafrost soils by 2091?C2100 (as compared to 2001?C2010) amounts to approximately 65% for scenarios I and 40% for scenarios II. By the end of the 21st century, in regions of eastern Siberia, in which near-surface permafrost soils are preserved, the characteristic depths of seasonal thawing amount to 0.5?C2.5 m for scenarios I and 1?C2 m for scenarios II. In western Siberia, the depth of seasonal thawing amounts to 1?C2 m under both scenarios I and II.     

Sea surface wind and Sea ice in the Barents Sea using microwave sensing data from Meteor-M N1 and GCOM-W1 satellites in January–March 2013

Application of satellite passive microwave sensing for the retrieval of key climatic parameters in the Barents Sea is considered. Fields of surface wind, atmosphere water vapor content and cloud liquid water content were found from MTVZA-GY radiometer onboard the Meteor-M N1 satellite and AMSR2 onboard the GCOM-W1 satellite with the use of original algorithms. The fields are in a good agreement with the ancillary remote and in situ measurements, which follows from the analysis of the evolution of the extra tropical and polar cyclones and cold air outbreaks with storm winds leading to intense air-sea interaction, and the formation and drift of sea ice.     

Oxygen isotope speedometry in granulite facies garnet recording fluid/melt–rock interaction (Sør Rondane Mountains,East Antarctica)

In situ analysis of a garnet porphyroblast from a granulite facies gneiss from Sør Rondane Mountains, East Antarctica, reveals discontinuous step‐wise zoning in phosphorus and large δ¹⁸O variations from the phosphorus‐rich core to the phosphorus‐poor rim. The gradually decreasing profile of oxygen isotope from the core (δ¹⁸O = ~15‰) to the rim (δ¹⁸O = ~11‰) suggests that the ¹⁸O/¹⁶O zoning was originally step‐wise, and modified by diffusion after the garnet rim formation at ~800°C and 0.8 GPa. Fitting of the ¹⁸O/¹⁶O data to the diffusion equation constrains a duration of the high‐T event (~800°C) to c. 0.5–40 Ma after the garnet rim formation. The low δ¹⁸O value of the garnet rim, together with the previously reported low δ¹⁸O values in metacarbonates, indicates regional infiltration, probably along a detachment fault, of low δ¹⁸O fluid/melt possibly derived from meta‐mafic to ultramafic rocks.     

A review of advances in China’s flash flood early-warning system

This paper summarizes the main flash flood early-warning systems of America, Europe, Japan, and Taiwan China and discusses their advantages and disadvantages. The latest development in flash flood prevention is also presented. China’s flash flood prevention system involves three stages. Herein, the warning methods and achievements in the first two stages are introduced in detail. Based on the worldwide experience of flash flood early-warning systems, the general research idea of the third stage is proposed from the viewpoint of requirements for flash flood prevention and construction progress of the next stage in China. Real-time dynamic warning systems can be applied to the early-warning platform at four levels (central level, provincial level, municipal level, and county level) . Through this, soil moisture, peak flow, and water level can be calculated in real-time using distributed hydrological models, and then flash flood warning indexes can be computed based on defined thresholds of runoff and water level. A compound warning index (CWI) can be applied to regions where rainfall and water level are measured by simple equipment. In this manner, flash-flood-related factors such as rainfall intensity and antecedent and cumulative rainfall depths can be determined using the CWI method. The proposed methodology for the third stage could support flash flood prevention measures in the 13th 5-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China (2016–2020). The research achievements will serve as a guidance for flash flood monitoring and warning as well as flood warning in medium and small rivers.