A Long-Term Forecast Model of Spring Runoff: The Case of the Belaya River

Doklady Earth Sciences - The results of long-term forecasting of the spring runoff in the Belaya River basin based on the water-balance model are presented. The structure and parameters of the...     

Modeling preferential flow in reactive barriers: implications for performance and design

Reactive barriers are passive and in situ ground water treatment systems. Heterogeneities in hydraulic conductivity (K) within the aquifer-reactive barrier system will result in higher flux rates, and reduced residence times, through portions of the barrier. These spatial variations in residence time will affect the treatment capacity of the barrier. A numerical flow model was used to evaluate the effects of spatial variations in K on preferential flow through barriers. The simulations indicate that the impact of heterogeneities in K will be a function of their location and distribution; the more localized the high K zone, the greater the preferential flow. The geometry of the reactive barrier will also strongly influence flow distribution. Aquifer heterogeneities will produce greater preferential flow in thinner barriers compared to thicker barriers. If the barrier K is heterogeneous, greater preferential flow will occur in thicker barriers. The K of the barrier will affect the flow distribution; decreasing the K of the barrier can result in more even distribution of flow. Results indicate that less variable flow will be attained utilizing thicker, homogeneous barriers. The addition of homogeneous zones to thinner barriers will be effective at redistributing flow only if installed immediately adjacent to both the up- and downgradient faces of the barrier.     

Interaction between a circular opening and fractures originating from its boundary in a piecewise homogeneous plane

The complex variables boundary element method (CVBEM) is used to study interaction between a circular opening and fractures originating from its boundary in a piecewise homogeneous plane. A new complex hypersingular equation for piecewise homogeneous media with a circular opening is obtained. The equation is solved using the CVBEM technique with circular and straight boundary elements and polynomial approximations (with square root asymptotics for crack tip elements) for the unknown functions. The algorithm is verified through comparison with known semi‐analytical and numerical solutions that involve interaction between a circular opening and specific systems of cracks or other openings. New numerical results concerning the interaction of the circular opening with the cracks and circular inclusions are presented. The method is applied to an important problem in the petroleum industry: modelling propagation of hydraulic fractures in the vicinity of a borehole. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Automated mapping of rock slope geometry,kinematics and stability with RSS-GIS

A GIS-implemented, deterministic approach for the automated spatial evaluation of geometrical and kinematical properties of rock slope terrains is presented. Based on spatially distributed directional information on planar geological fabrics and DEM-derived topographic attribute data, the internal geometry of rock slopes can be characterized on a grid cell basis. For such computations, different approaches for the analysis and regionalization of available structural directional information applicable in specific tectonic settings are demonstrated and implemented in a GIS environment. Simple kinematical testing procedures based on feasibility criteria can be conducted on a pixel basis to determine which failure mechanisms are likely to occur at particular terrain locations. In combination with hydraulic and strength data on geological discontinuities, scenario-based rock slope stability evaluations can be performed. For conceptual investigations on rock slope failure processes, a GIS-based specification tool for a 2-D distinct element code (UDEC) was designed to operate with the GIS-encoded spatially distributed rock slope data. The concepts of the proposed methodology for rock slope hazard assessments are demonstrated at three different test sites in Germany.     

Sea‐level and ocean‐current control on carbonate‐platform growth,Maldives, Indian Ocean

Multichannel high‐resolution seismic and multibeam data were acquired from the Maldives‐isolated carbonate platform in the Indian Ocean for a detailed characterization of the Neogene bank architecture of this edifice. The goal of the research is to decipher the controlling factors of platform evolution, with a special emphasis on sea‐level changes and changes of the oceanic currents. The stacking pattern of Lower to Middle Miocene depositional sequences, with an evolution of a ramp geometry to a flat‐topped platform, reflects variations of accommodation, which here are proposed to be primarily governed by fluctuations of relative sea level. Easterly currents during this stage of bank growth controlled an asymmetric east‐directed progradation of the bank edge. During the late middle Miocene, this system was replaced by a twofold configuration of bank development. Bank growth continued synchronously with partial bank demise and associated sediment‐drift deposition. This turnover is attributed to the onset and/or intensification of the Indian monsoon and related upwelling and occurrence of currents, locally changing environmental conditions and impinging upon the carbonate system. Mega spill over lobes, shaped by reversing currents, formed as large‐scale prograding complexes, which have previously been interpreted as deposits formed during a forced regression. On a regional scale, a complex carbonate‐platform growth can occur, with a coexistence of bank‐margin progradation and aggradation, as well as partial drowning. It is further shown that a downward shift of clinoforms and offlapping geometries in carbonate platforms are not necessarily indicative for a sea‐level driven forced regression. Findings are expected to be applicable to other examples of Cenozoic platforms in the Indo‐Pacific region.     

Crustal and upper mantle structure of the northwestern North Island, New Zealand, from seismic refraction data

The crustal and upper mantle structure of the northwestern North Island of New Zealand is derived from the results of a seismic refraction experiment; shots were fired at the ends and middle of a 575 km-long line extending from Lake Taupo to Cape Reinga. The principal finding from the experiment is that the crust is 25 ± 2 km thick, and is underlain by what is interpreted to be an upper mantle of seismic velocity 7.6 ± 0.1 km s⁻¹, that increases to 7.9 km s⁻¹ at a depth of about 45 km. Crustal seismic velocities vary between 5.3 and 6.36 km s⁻¹ with an average value of 6.04 km s⁻¹. There are close geophysical and geological similarities between the north-western North Island of New Zealand and the Basin and Range province of the western United States. In particular, the conditions of low upper-mantle seismic velocities, thin crust with respect to surface elevation, and high heat-flow (70–100 mW m⁻²) observed in these two areas can be ascribed to their respective positions behind an active convergent margin for about the past 20 Myr.     

Assessment of the statistical significance of global changes in the annual river runoff in XXI century due to possible anthropogenic warming of climate

A number of uncertainties of forecasts of changes in the annual runoff depths at global scale, obtained using information on results of integration of 21 IPCC climate models is studied. Following possible errors of these forecasts are calculated: errors of models; differences between main (IPCC) scenarios of emission of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and resultant changes of global temperatures; mistakes in estimates of average long-term observed values of the runoff depths for the “control” period. Global maps of a “significance index” of forecasted changes in the runoff depths (estimations of changes in the annual runoff depths divided by mean square root values of errors of these estimations) for 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 are presented. It is shown that the most significant global changes of the runoff depths (growth in the north of Eastern Siberia, of the Russian Far East, of North America, falling in the “Greater Mediterranean Region”) are predicted for the second quarter of 21st century. Further changes of the runoff amplify only in the Amazon basin (reduction, by 2075). Almost everywhere else (including almost all European territory of Russia, Western Siberia, south of Eastern Siberia and of the Far East) the significance of changes in the runoff depths during 21st century is negligible.     

Distribution of arsenic and mercury in subtropical coastal beachrock,Gulf of Mannar,India

An assessment of coastal pollution was made on the basis of trace element concentrations (arsenic — As, mercury — Hg) in the Gulf of Mannar. The beachrock samples were collected along the coastal tracts between Rameswaram and Kanyakumari. The samples were dried and digested to determine the As and Hg using atomic absorption spectrophotometer (AAS-air-acetylene and nitrous oxide method). The As and Hg accumulation status of the beachrock was assessed using geo-accumulation index values (I _geo). The accumulation of As and Hg in the beachrock ranges from 2.75 to 20.72 μg g⁻¹ and from 0.06 to 0.31 μg g⁻¹, respectively. The As and Hg concentrations in the beachrocks are compared with crustal average values and average of other region sediments. The possible source of the contamination is from atmospheric deposition and anthropogenic activities.     

Chemical analysis of natural objects by ion chromatographic method in combination with a priori calculations using IONCHROM software

This paper briefly describes original developments in the theoretical and practical ion chromatography. It is demonstrated that new methods may be applied for the highly-selective analysis of complex natural objects. The determination of different species of sulfur and other ions in the condensates of fumarolic gases is considered in detail as an example.