Spatial Pair-Copula Modeling of Grade in Ore Bodies: A Case Study

A real-world mining application of pair-copulas is presented to model the spatial distribution of metal grade in an ore body. Inaccurate estimation of metal grade in an ore reserve can lead to failure of a mining project. Conventional kriged models are the most commonly used models for estimating grade and other spatial variables. However, kriged models use the variogram or covariance function, which produces a single average value to represent the spatial dependence for a given distance. Kriged models also assume linear spatial dependence. In the application, spatial pair-copulas are used to appropriately model the non-linear spatial dependence present in the data. The spatial pair-copula model is adopted over other copula-based spatial models since it is better able to capture complex spatial dependence structures. The performance of the pair-copula model is shown to be favorable compared to a conventional lognormal kriged model.     

Mobility and settlement system integration in the USSR

Recent Soviet research on commuting in the USSR is reviewed in the light of the General Strategy for a System of Settlement in the USSR, adopted in 1976. It is noted that rural-urban commuting to work has grown rapidly since 1975, particularly in the European parts of the USSR, and that most commuters prefer to live in rural or suburban areas within easy access of an urban center rather than in the central city itself.     

Forecasting off-road trafficability

Forecasting off-road trafficability represents an interesting problem in the earth science field, since variables ranging from solar insolation to soil shear strength are involved. However, existing trafficability models do not include precipitation-soil moisture deterministic submodels. Instead, they frequently commence with soil moisture and invoke empirical relationships to predict trafficability. This investigation couples a deterministic soil moisture submodel to a principal empirical soil moisture-trafficability model. Sensitivity analysis shows the impact cloud cover, as well as other variables, can have on the trafficability of three soil types, and the complexity of the post-storm trafficability response.     

Convective and conductive heat transfer in sedimentary basins

In the Earth's crust the temperature is largely controlled by heat conduction. However, under some circumstances, the thermal state is disturbed by advection of heat associated with groundwater flow. The corresponding thermal disturbance depends on the water flow velocity (modulus and direction) and therefore thermal data may be used to constrain the pattern of natural fluid flow. In this paper, some models of thermal disturbance induced by convective heat transfer are presented. They are based on the assumption that the water flow is concentrated in thin permeable structures such as aquifer or fault zones. The steady-state and transient thermal effects associated with such scenarios are computed using a somewhat idealized model which depends on a small number of parameters: flow rate, time, aquifer geometry and thermal parameters of surrounding rocks. In order to extract the conductive and convective components of heat transfer from temperature data and to estimate the corresponding fluid flow rate, it is first necessary to estimate the thermal conductivity field. The problem of the estimation of thermal conductivity in clay-rich rocks, based on laboratory and in-situ measurements, is emphasized. Then a method is proposed for the inversion of temperature data in terms of fluid flow. Vertical and lateral variations of thermal conductivity are taken into account and the fluid flow is assumed to be concentrated on a specified surface (2-D quasi-horizontal pattern). Thermal effects of the flow are simulated by a distribution of surface heat production which can be calculated and then inverted in terms of horizontal fluid flow pattern.     

Palaeomagnetism of the Tudor gabbro, Ontario: evidence for divergence between Grenvillia and interior Laurentia

Summary. After thermal and alternating field (AF) cleaning, the characteristic high blocking temperature A component of natural remanent magnetization (NRM) of the Tudor gabbro of southern Ontario has a mean direction D = 326°, I =–46° ( k = 132, α₉₅= 4.8°, N = 8 sites). The corresponding palaeopole, 133°E, 12°N ( dp = 4°, dm = 6°), confirms the palaeopole 137°E, 17°N (α₉₅= 8.4°) reported earlier by Palmer & Carmichael, based on AF cleaning only. The A NRM has unblocking temperatures > 515–525°C which exceed the estimated 500°C peak temperature reached locally during ∼ 1050 Ma Grenvillian regional metamorphism. The A NRM therefore predates metamorphism and is probably a primary thermoremanence (TRM). The age of the Tudor NRM has previously been taken to be about 675 Ma, but recent ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating by Baksi has shown that this is the time of post-metamorphic cooling to 200–250°C. Hornblendes record initial cooling of the intrusion to 590±20°C at 1110 Ma and this is the best estimate of the age of the A remanence. Successful Thellier-type palaeointensity determinations on 11 Tudor samples confirm that the A NRM is a TRM and indicate a palaeofield at this time of 18–27 μT, about 50–70 per cent of the present field intensity at 27° magnetic latitude. The anomalous Tudor A palaeopole, which lies well to the west of both 1000–800 Ma Grenvillian palaeopoles and 1100–1050 Ma poles from Interior Laurentia, is interpreted as recording divergence between Grenvillia and Interior Laurentia just before the Grenvillian orogeny, rather than a post-metamorphic extension of the apparent polar wander path as previously assumed.     

Listric extensional fault systems - results of analogue model experiments

Abstract Analogue models are a powerful tool for investigating progressive deformation in extensional fault systems. This paper presents exciting new insights into the progressive evolution of hanging wall structures in listric extensional terranes. Analogue models, scaled to simulate deformation in a sedimentary sequence, were constructed for simple listric and ramp/flat listric extensional detachments. For each detachment geometry homogeneous sand, sand/mica and sand/clay models were used to simulate respectively, deformation of isotropic sediments, of anisotropic sediments and of sedimentary sequences with competency contrasts. Roll-over anticlines with geometrically necessary crestal collapse graben structures are characteristic of the steepening-upwards segments of listric extensional fault systems in all of our models. With progressive deformation, crestal collapse grabens show hanging wall nucleation of new faults. Variations in graben size, amount of fault rotation and throw, are dependent on detachment curvature and amount of extension. Individual faults and associated fault blocks may significantly change shape during extension. Complex and apparently conjugate fault arrays are the result of superposition of successive crestal collapse grabens. Ramp/flat listric extensional fault systems are characterized by a roll-over anticline and a crestal collapse graben system associated with each steepening-upwards segment of the detachment and a ramp zone consisting of a hanging wall syncline and a complex deformation zone with local reverse faults. The roll-over anticlines and crestal collapse graben are similar in geometry to those formed in simple listric extensional systems. The models demonstrate that the geometry of the detachments exerts a fundamental control on the evolution of hanging wall structures. Analysis of particle displacement paths for these experiments provides new insights into the mechanical development of roll-over anticlines. Two general models for deformation above simple listric and ramp/flat listric extensional detachments have been erected.     

Linking Tarim Basin sea retreat (west China) and Asian aridification in the late Eocene

The Tarim Basin in western China formed the easternmost margin of a shallow epicontinental sea that extended across Eurasia and was well connected to the western Tethys during the Paleogene. Climate modelling studies suggest that the westward retreat of this sea from Central Asia may have been as important as the Tibetan Plateau uplift in forcing aridification and monsoon intensification in the Asian continental interior due to the redistribution of the land‐sea thermal contrast. However, testing of this hypothesis is hindered by poor constraints on the timing and precise palaeogeographic dynamics of the retreat. Here, we present an improved integrated bio‐ and magnetostratigraphic chronological framework of the previously studied marine to continental transition in the southwest Tarim Basin along the Pamir and West Kunlun Shan, allowing us to better constrain its timing, cause and palaeoenvironmental impact. The sea retreat is assigned a latest Lutetian–earliest Bartonian age (ca. 41 Ma; correlation of the last marine sediments to calcareous nannofossil Zone CP14 and correlation of the first continental red beds to the base of magnetochron C18r). Higher up in the continental deposits, a major hiatus includes the Eocene–Oligocene transition (ca. 34 Ma). This suggests the Tarim Basin was hydrologically connected to the Tethyan marine Realm until at least the earliest Oligocene and had not yet been closed by uplift of the Pamir–Kunlun orogenic system. The westward sea retreat at ca. 41 Ma and the disconformity at the Eocene–Oligocene transition are both time‐equivalent with reported Asian aridification steps, suggesting that, consistent with climate modelling results, the sea acted as an important moisture source for the Asian continental interior.