A Statistical Analysis of Trends for Warm and Cold Spells in Uppsala by Means of Counts

Statistical studies of extremes are of interest in the climatic sciences, in particular trends of periods of unusually warm or cold weather, which could be labelled warm and cold spells, respectively. We study the yearly number of spells in Uppsala, Sweden which from a data‐analytic point of view truly are counts, and employ theory and methods from the field of regression models for counts. A possible trend for the period 1840–2012 was investigated. The trend for warm spells is positive and demonstrated to be larger in magnitude compared with the one for cold spells, and is found to be statistically significant. The methodology could be extended to analyse other climate indicators.     

REVIEWS

Book reviewed in this article:
GEOGRAPHY, ITS SCOPE AND SPIRIT. By J. O. M. Broek
GEOGRAPHY AS HUMAN ECOLOGY: METHODOLOGY BY EXAMPLE. Edited by S. R. Eyre and G. R. J. Jones
A PREFACE TO ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY. By H. H. McCarty and J. B. Lindberg
A PROLOGUE TO POPULATION GEOGRAPHY. By W. Zelinsky     

Natural aggregates in the performance and durability of concrete: chemical characteristics

This article continues from the earlier feature in Geology Today (2011, v.27, n.4) and looks at the influence of chemical reactivity within concrete due to the presence of unsound aggregates or deleterious material incorporated in the aggregate used in the concrete mix. Some of the more disruptive problems from chemical unsoundness come from the presence of chlorides, which cause rusting in reinforced concrete or, sulphate attack from ground waters. Both of these reactions are relatively common in Britain. Alkali–silica reactions with aggregates and cement is not too prevalent in Britain but can be very prevalent and disruptive elsewhere in the world.     

Dispersion characteristics of low-latitude whistlers

The effect of ions on whistler dispersion characteristics has been studied. It is shown that the significant changes in the dispersion characteristics of low-latitude whistlers are brought about by the presence of ions. The dispersions for Nainital (geomagnetic lat. 19°1'N) and Gulmarg (geomagnetic lat. 24°10'N) are found to peak around 800 Hz. The short whistler sonograms recorded at Nainital and Gulmarg have been analysed, using the complete dispersion equation and the effect of ions has been shown. At higher frequencies the dispersion is found to decrease steadily and becomes independent of ions. Some examples of short whistlers have been found whose characteristics do not conform to the general trend of low-latitude whistlers, and, on the other hand, these whistlers show a constant dispersion unaffected by ions up to a fairly low frequency and thereafter decrease sharply at lower frequencies.     

Determination of the optimum period for ciliated protozoa colonizing of an artificial substrate in a tropical aquatic ecosystem

The optimum period for ciliated protozoa colonizing of an artificial substrate, the polyurethane foams have been assessed in a tropical aquatic ecosystem, the Ekozoa stream of the Mfoundi River Basin in Yaounde (Cameroon). 5?days were calculated as the highest period for the biological indicators of pollution to optimally colonize the artificial substrate. This time interval is the same for all the sampling stations assessed from upstream to downstream and the various microhabitats along the water course. The statistical method applied is that of the completely randomized blocks. The colonization of the substrate increases from the first day to the fifth day, before decreasing to the tenth day. The statistical analysis of variance between the maximum day and the other sampling period was significant at 5?% while the calculation of the value between different points of the same station was not significant. The average number of ciliated protozoan ranges from 20 to 23, from upstream to downstream.     

Numerical simulation of the diurnal cycle of rainfall in SW Amazon basin during the 1999 rainy season: the role of convective trigger function

In continental areas, the maximum rainfall simulated with the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) occurs around 4?h earlier than the one observed with rain gauges. This work presents the successful implementation of a new convective trigger function (CTF) in the convective parameterization scheme used in BRAMS that corrects this misfit between model and observations. The importance of the CTF formulation on the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the Amazon Basin is reflected by the following numbers: Over Rondonia (SW Amazonia), the original version of BRAMS simulates the maximum rainfall at 1400 UTC (1000 LST), with the new CTF maximum shifting to 1800?UTC (1400?LST), while the S-band radar rainfall maximum is at 1900?UTC (1500?LST). This is attributed to two factors: (1) the new CTF is now coupled to the sensible and latent heat fluxes at surface; (2) during the early morning, the convective available potential energy is reduced.     

H 187 - At the Onset of a New Eclipse

CCD photometry data of the T Tauri star H 187 are presented. They show that a new eclipse of this star began at the end of 2004. Since only one eclipse of this star has been observed previously with a duration of 3.5 years, our data indicate that the eclipses of this object are periodic with a period P=4.9 years between eclipses. Thus, in terms of the absolute duration of the eclipses and in terms of their relative length as a fraction of the period, H 187 is one of the most exotic objects in the sky. __________ Translated from Astrofizika, Vol. 48, No. 4, pp. 529–534 (November 2005).     

Estimation of sedimentary thickness in the Godavari basin

A major portion of the southern part of the Indian subcontinent is classified as a stable continental region. However, a few segments in this region are punctuated by rifts and shear zones that are seismically active. The Godavari rift that sutures the eastern Dharwar and the Bastar cratons is one such region, prone to seismic hazard. Estimation of the sedimentary thickness in these seismically active regions assumes importance since locales of thick and soft sediments are vulnerable to destruction due to surface waves generated by earthquakes. In the present study, data from five broadband seismological stations are utilized to estimate the average sedimentary thickness of the Godavari region using the difference in travel times of the direct S and converted Sp phases from local earthquakes. The thickness of sediments varies between 0.32 and 4.32 km. Also, the site-specific response in terms of the fundamental resonance frequency and the corresponding amplifications are estimated using the well-established Nakamura technique. The predominant frequencies are in the range of 1.3–4.61 Hz, and the amplifications are higher (>1.5) for the stations inside the Godavari basin. Both the thickness and amplification values clearly indicate that the sediments tend to get thicker toward the center of the basin, in good agreement with the geological distribution of the sedimentary units.     

Formalization of assessing radioactive waste burial site seismic regime parameters from seismological and geological data

A model is proposed that shows the relation of the block structure of the crust and earthquake sources (Sadovskii, 1979; Rodionov, 1979, 1984, 1994; Bugaev, 1999, 2011, 2014, 2015). The model can formalize how to assess the prediction of seismic regime parameters depending on the elastic limit and conditions and rate of deformation of the Earth’s crust. The spent nuclear fuel repository site in Olkiluoto (Finland) and a site in the area of the Krasnoyarsk Mining and Chemical Combine are considered as examples. It is demonstrated that the parameters of the prediction graphs limit the location of the points of magnitude repeatability graphs calculated for a site based on samples of earthquakes in the area according to different authors. This makes it possible to recommend predictive assessment of seismic regime parameters for stability monitoring of the seismic regime and safety analysis of a geological environment’s insulation properties for waste sites from the results of seismological monitoring and high-precision observations of modern movements of the Earth’s crust.