Ground motion estimation during the Kashmir earthquake of 8th October 2005

In this article, analytical methods have been used to estimate ground motion during the 8 October 2005, Kashmir earthquake. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at several stations in the epicentral region have been estimated by empirical analytical source mechanism models. As an alternate analysis, PGA estimates have also been obtained using the stochastic finite fault seismological model. The estimated PGAs are compared with that obtained from damage values. A PGA contour map in the near-source region is provided. It is found that very near to the epicenter, PGA would have reached more than 1 g. It is demonstrated that empirical analytical models can be effectively used to estimate ground motion due to rupture of active faults.     

Integration and magnitude homogenization of the Egyptian earthquake catalogue

The aim of the present work is to compile and update a catalogue of the instrumentally recorded earthquakes in Egypt, with uniform and homogeneous source parameters as required for the analysis of seismicity and seismic hazard assessment. This in turn requires a detailed analysis and comparison of the properties of different available sources, including the distribution of events with time, the magnitude completeness, and the scaling relations between different kinds of magnitude reported by different agencies. The observational data cover the time interval 1900–2004 and an area between 22°–33.5° N and 25°–36° E. The linear regressions between various magnitude types have been evaluated for different magnitude ranges. Using the best linear relationship determined for each available pair of magnitudes, as well as those identified between the magnitudes and the seismic moment, we convert the different magnitude types into moment magnitudes M _W, through a multi-step conversion process. Analysis of the catalogue completeness, based on the M _W thus estimated, allows us to identify two different time intervals with homogeneous properties. The first one (1900–1984) appears to be complete for M _W ≥ 4.5, while the second one (1985–2004) can be considered complete for magnitudes M _W ≥ 3.     

Methodology for preliminary assessment of Natech risk in urban areas

Concern for natural hazard-triggered technological disasters (Natech disasters) in densely populated and industrialized areas is growing. Residents living in urban areas subject to high natural hazard risk are often unaware of the potential for secondary disasters such as hazardous materials releases from neighboring industrial facilities, chemical storage warehouses or other establishments housing hazardous materials. Lessons from previous disasters, such as the Natech disaster during the Kocaeli earthquake in Turkey in 1999 call for the need to manage low frequency/high consequence events, particularly in today’s densely populated areas. However, there is little guidance available on how local governments and communities can assess Natech risk. To add to the problem, local governments often do not have the human or economic resources or expertise to carry out detailed risk assessments. In this article, we propose a methodology for preliminary assessment of Natech risk in urban areas. The proposed methodology is intended for use by local government officials in consultation with the public. The methodology considers possible interactions between the various systems in the urban environment: the physical infrastructure (e.g., industrial plants, lifeline systems, critical facilities), the community (e.g., population exposed), the natural environment (e.g., delicate ecosystems, river basins), and the risk and emergency management systems (e.g., structural and nonstructural measures). Factors related to vulnerability and hazard are analyzed and qualitative measures are recommended. Data from hazardous materials releases during the Kocaeli, Turkey earthquake of August 17, 1999 are used as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the methodology. Limitations of the proposed methodology are discussed as well as future research needs.

Mineralogy and geochemistry of platinum-group elements in the Aguablanca Ni-Cu deposit (SW Spain)

Summary The Aguablanca Ni-Cu-(PGE) magmatic sulphide deposit is associated with a magmatic breccia located in the northern part of the Aguablanca gabbro (SW, Iberia). Three types of ores are present: semi-massive, disseminated, and chalcopyrite-rich veined ore. The principal ore minerals are pyrrhotite, pentlandite and chalcopyrite. A relatively abundant platinum-group mineral (PGM) assemblage is present and includes merenskyite, melonite, michenerite, moncheite and sperrylite. Moreover, concentrations of base and precious metals and micro-PIXE analyses were obtained for the three ore-types. The mineralogy and the mantle-normalised chalcophile element profiles strongly suggest that semi-massive ore represents mss crystallisation, whereas the disseminated ore represents an unfractionated sulphide liquid and the chalcopyrite-rich veined ore a Cu-rich sulphide liquid. Palladium-bearing minerals occur commonly enclosed within sulphides, indicating a magmatic origin rather than hydrothermal. The occurrences and the composition of these minerals suggest that Pd was initially dissolved in the sulphides and subsequently exsolved at low temperatures to form bismutotellurides. Negative Pt and Au anomalies in the mantle-normalised chalcophile element profiles, a lack of Cu-S correlation and textural observations (such as sperrylite losing its euhedral shape when in contact with altered minerals) suggest partial remobilisation of Pt, Au and Cu by postmagmatic hydrothermal fluids after the sulphide crystallisation. Authors’ addresses: R. Pi?a, L. Ortega, R. Lunar, Departamento de Cristalografía y Mineralogía, Facultad de Geología, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, ES-28040 Madrid, Spain; F. Gervilla, Facultad de Ciencias, Instituto Andaluz de Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad de Granada-CSIC, Avda. Fuentenueva, s/n, ES-18002 Granada, Spain     

Natural background levels and threshold values of monitored parameters in the Cambrian-Vendian groundwater body,Estonia

The Cambrian-Vendian groundwater body plays an important role in drinking water supply of capital Tallinn and other settlements in northern Estonia. Water quality in this deep-seated confined groundwater body is influenced by the intrusion of present-day seawater and pumping-induced upward migration of deeper saline groundwater. The aim of this study is to evaluate the threshold values applying the methodology worked out within the EU 6th FP project “Background criteria for the identification of groundwater thresholds (BRIDGE)” and to compare the results with the values proposed by local authorities. A database containing 250 monitoring points was completed and used for the calculation of natural background levels (as the 90 and 97.7 percentile) in groundwater. The calculation of threshold values is based on natural background levels and reference values. In case of Cambrian-Vendian groundwater body the receptor is drinking water, thus limit values set by Estonian drinking water standard were used as reference values. The threshold values proposed by local authorities are more or less the same as calculated by BRIDGE methodology. Exceptionally different values are derived in case of chloride and ammonium.     

Detection of free vertical convection and double-diffusion in groundwater monitoring wells with geophysical borehole measurements

Two algorithms for in-situ detection and identification of vertical free convective and double-diffusive flows in groundwater monitoring wells or boreholes are proposed. With one algorithm the causes (driving forces) and with the other one the effects (convection or double-diffusion) of vertical transport processes can be detected based on geophysical borehole measurements in the water column. Five density-driven flow processes are identified: thermal, solutal, and thermosolutal convection leading to an equalization, as well as saltfingers and diffusive layering leading to an intensification of a vertical density gradient. The occurrence of density-driven transport processes could be proven in many groundwater monitoring wells and boreholes; especially shallow sections of boreholes or groundwater monitoring wells are affected dramatically by such vertical flows. Deep sections are also impaired as the critical threshold for the onset of a density-driven flow is considerably low. In monitoring wells or boreholes, several sections with different types of density-driven vertical flows may exist at the same time. Results from experimental investigations in a medium-scale testing facility with high aspect ratio (height/radius = 19) and from numerical modeling of a water column agree well with paramters of in-situ detected convection cells.     

Implementation of reconstructed geomorphologic units in landslide susceptibility mapping: the Melen Gorge (NW Turkey)

In the international literature, although considerable amount of publications on the landslide susceptibility mapping exist, geomorphology as a conditioning factor is still used in limited number of studies. Considering this factor, the purpose of this article paper is to implement the geomorphologic parameters derived by reconstructed topography in landslide susceptibility mapping. According to the method employed in this study, terrain is generalized by the contours passed through the convex slopes of the valleys that were formed by fluvial erosion. Therefore, slope conditions before landsliding can be obtained. The reconstructed morphometric and geomorphologic units are taken into account as a conditioning parameter when assessing landslide susceptibility. Two different data, one of which is obtained from the reconstructed DEM, have been employed to produce two landslide susceptibility maps. The binary logistic regression is used to develop landslide susceptibility maps for the Melen Gorge in the Northwestern part of Turkey. Due to the high correct classification percentages and spatial effectiveness of the maps, the landslide susceptibility map comprised the reconstructed morphometric parameters exhibits a better performance than the other. Five different datasets are selected randomly to apply proper sampling strategy for training. As a consequence of the analyses, the most proper outcomes are obtained from the dataset of the reconstructed topographical parameters and geomorphologic units, and lithological variables that are implemented together. Correct classification percentage and root mean square error (RMSE) values of the validation dataset are calculated as 86.28% and 0.35, respectively. Prediction capacity of the different datasets reveal that the landslide susceptibility map obtained from the reconstructed parameters has a higher prediction capacity than the other. Moreover, the landslide susceptibility map obtained from the reconstructed parameters produces logical results.     

Soil erosion susceptibility assessment and validation using a geostatistical multivariate approach: a test in Southern Sicily

A certain number of studies have been carried out in recent years that aim at developing and applying a model capable of assessing water erosion of soil. Some of these have tried to quantitatively evaluate the volumes of soil loss, while others have focused their efforts on the recognition of the areas most prone to water erosion processes. This article presents the results of a research whose objective was that of evaluating water erosion susceptibility in a Sicilian watershed: the Naro river basin. A geomorphological study was carried out to recognize the water erosion landforms and define a set of parameters expressing both the intensity of hydraulic forces and the resistance of rocks/soils. The landforms were mapped and classified according to the dominant process in landsurfaces affected by diffuse or linear water erosion. A GIS layer was obtained by combining six determining factors (bedrock lithology, land use, soil texture, plan curvature, stream power index and slope-length factor) in unique conditions units. A geostatistical multivariate approach was applied by analysing the relationships between the spatial distributions of the erosion landforms and the unique condition units. Particularly, the density of eroded area for each combination of determining factors has been calculated: such function corresponds, in fact, to the conditional probability of erosion landforms to develop, under the same geoenvironmental conditions. In light of the obtained results, a general geomorphologic model for water erosion in the Naro river basin can be depicted: cultivated areas in clayey slopes, having fine-medium soil texture, are the most prone to be eroded; linear or diffuse water erosion processes dominate where the topography is favourable to a convergent or divergent runoff, respectively. For each of the two erosion process types, a susceptibility map was produced and submitted to a validation procedure based on a spatial random partition strategy. Both the success of the validation procedure of the susceptibility models and the geomorphological coherence of the relationships between factors and process that such models suggest, confirm the reliability of the method and the goodness of the predictions.     

National flood discharge mapping in Austria

This article presents the approach and the results of a study in which 30, 100 and 200 year return period flood discharges were estimated for 26,000 km of Austrian streams. Three guiding principles were adopted: combination of automatic methods and manual assessments by hydrologists to allow speedy processing and account for the local hydrological situation; combination of various sources of information including flood peak samples, rainfall data, runoff coefficients and historical flood data; and involvement of the Hydrographic Services to increase the accuracy and enhance the acceptance of results. The flood discharges for ungauged catchments were estimated by the Top-kriging approach with manual adjustment to the local flood characteristics. The adopted combination approach proved to be very efficient both in terms of the project time required and in terms of the accuracy and acceptability of the estimated flood discharges of given return periods.     

Environmental hydrogeology of the southern sector of the Samborombon Bay wetland,Argentina

The Samborombon Bay wetland is located on the west margin of the Rio de la Plata estuary, in the Province of Buenos Aires, Argentina. This paper analyses the geological, geomorphologic, soil and vegetation characteristics of the southernmost sector of this wetland and their influence on surface water and groundwater. The study area presents three hydrologic units: coastal dunes, sand sheets and coastal plain. Coastal dunes and sand sheets are recharge zones of high permeability with well-drained, non-saline soils, and a few surface water flows. Changes in the water table are related to rainfall. Groundwater in coastal dunes is Ca–Mg–HCO₃ to Na–HCO₃, and of low salinity (590 mg/l). Groundwater in sand sheets is mainly Na–HCO₃ with a salinity of about 1,020 mg/l. The coastal plain exhibits medium to low permeability sediments, with submerged saline soils poorly drained. Groundwater is Na–Cl with a mean salinity of 16,502 mg/l. A surface hydrological network develops in the coastal plain. Surface water levels near the shoreline are affected by tidal fluctuations; far from the shoreline water accumulates because of poor drainage. Both sectors have Na–Cl water, but the former is more saline. Human intervention and sea level rise may affect the wetland severely.