Neural networks for quick earthquake damage estimation

This paper proposes the use of neural networks to predict damage due to earthquakes from the indices of recorded ground motion. Since the relationship between ground motion indices and resulting damage is difficult to express in mathematical form, neural networks are conveniently applied for this problem. Simulated earthquake ground motions are used to have a well-distributed data set and the ductility factor from non-linear analysis of two single-degree-of-freedom structural models is used to represent the damage. A sensitivity analysis procedure is described to identify qualitatively the input parameters that have a greater influence on the damage. The result of the trained neural network is then verified by using several recorded earthquake ground motions. It is found that some instability in the prediction can occur. Instability occurs when input values exceed the range of the training data. The neural network model using PGA and SI as input give the best performance in the recall tests using actual earthquake ground motion, demonstrating the usefulness of neural network models for the quick estimation of damage through earthquake intensity monitoring.     

Monitoring and evaluation of the urban reconstruction process in Bam,Iran, after the 2003 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> 6.6 earthquake

In this study, we tracked and analyzed the reconstruction process in Bam, Iran, after the city was struck by an earthquake with a M _w of 6.6 on December 26, 2003. We adopted three approaches to comprehensively assess the city’s post-earthquake reconstruction and to shed light on the progress and sustainability of disaster recovery projects. We applied the following methodology. First, we obtained official statistics and reports that included quantitative and qualitative evaluations of the reconstruction process to evaluate the overall outcome of the government’s reconstruction projects. Second, we examined photographs taken during field surveys conducted in 2004, 2007, and 2014 to assess changes within the city. Last, we analyzed three satellite images of Bam—the first taken 3 months before the earthquake, the second immediately after the earthquake, and the third 8 years after the earthquake—to assess the progress of reconstruction work and changes in land cover and land use. The results indicated that considerable progress had been made in reconstructing some of the damaged areas. However, progress was relatively slow in severely damaged areas.     

Five hundred million years of punctuated addition of juvenile crust during extension in the Goochland Terrane,central Appalachian Piedmont Province

ABSTRACT

The Goochland Terrane is an enigmatic crustal block in the Appalachian Piedmont Province of central Virginia, USA. Sparse exposures of terminal Mesoproterozoic and late Neoproterozoic igneous rocks in the central Goochland Terrane offer the opportunity to investigate both the continental affinity of the terrane during the Proterozoic Eon and the timing and mechanisms of crustal growth. We apply multiple geochemical tools to these rocks: tectonic discrimination using whole-rock major and trace element abundances; whole-rock Sm-Nd isotopes; O, U-Pb, and Lu-Hf isotope analyses of spots in zircon; and measurement of O isotopes in multi-grain quartz separates. Eruption of the Sabot Amphibolite protolith is difficult to date, but we tentatively assign an age of 552 ± 11 Ma. Goochland Terrane continental crust first separated from the mantle prior to ca. 1050–1010 Ma intrusion of the Montpelier Anorthosite and the State Farm Gneiss protolith. The granitic magma that became the State Farm Gneiss protolith could have been derived entirely from partial melting of this initial Goochland Terrane crust. In contrast, the magmas that became the Montpelier Anorthosite, Neoproterozoic granitoid, and the Sabot Amphibolite were mixtures of mantle melt and preexisting Goochland Terrane crust. This production of juvenile continental crust occurred during continental extension and, eventually, rifting. The timing and compositions of terminal Mesoproterozoic magmatism in the Goochland Terrane closely match those in the nearby Blue Ridge Province. Although the compositions of the Neoproterozoic magmas in the two regions are similar, intrusion and possibly eruption occurred about 10 M.y. later in the Goochland Terrane.     

Sensitivity analysis of the parameters of earthquake recurrence time power law scaling

The stability of the power law scaling of earthquake recurrence time distribution in a given space–time window is investigated, taking into account the magnitude of completeness and the effective starting time of aftershock sequences in earthquake catalogs from Southern California and Japan. A new method is introduced for sampling at different distances from a network of target events. This method allows the recurrence times to be sampled many times on the same area. Two power laws with unknown exponents are assumed to govern short- and long-recurrence-time ranges. This assumption is developed analytically and shown to imply simple correlation between these power laws. In practice, the results show that this correlation structure is not satisfied for short magnitude cutoffs (m _c = 2.5, 3.5, 4.5), and hence the recurrence time distribution departs from the power law scaling. The scaling parameters obtained from the stack of the distributions corresponding to different magnitude thresholds are quite different for different regions of study. It is also found that significantly different scaling parameters adjust the distribution for different magnitude thresholds. In particular, the power law exponents decrease when the magnitude cutoff increases, resulting in a slower decrease of the recurrence time distribution, especially for short time ranges. For example, in the case of Japan, the exponent p₂ of the power law scaling at large recurrence times follows roughly the relation: , where m _c is the magnitude cutoff. In case of Southern California, it is shown that Weibull distribution provides a better alternative fit to the data for moderate and large time scales.     

Estimation of strong motion distribution in the 1995 Kobe earthquake based on building damage data

The 1995 Kobe earthquake caused unprecedented damage to buildings and civil infrastructures in the city of Kobe and its surrounding areas. In order to evaluate the structural damage in this area due to the earthquake, it is important to estimate the distribution of earthquake ground motion. However, since the number of strong ground motion records is not enough in the heavily damaged areas, it is necessary to estimate the distribution using other data sources. In this paper, the fragility curves for low‐rise residential buildings were constructed using the recorded motions and the building damage data from the intensive field survey by the AIJ and CPIJ group. The fragility curves obtained were then employed to estimate the strong motion distribution in the district level for Kobe and the surrounding areas during the earthquake. The results may be useful to investigate the various damages caused by the earthquake. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Carbon dioxide stored and acidified low oxygen bottom waters in coastal seas,Japan

Recently carbon dioxide fluxes between sea water and air have been measured in many coastal seas to clarify whether the coastal seas are source or sink of CO₂. In this study behavior of CO₂ within the water column was studied in a semi-enclosed coastal sea: the Seto Inland Sea, Japan. It was found that seasonal formation of hypoxic water mass is highly related to CO₂ dynamics in coastal seas. Bacterial remineralization of organic matter consumes dissolved oxygen (DO) and releases dissolved CO₂ in the bottom water when summertime thermal stratification develops. The CO₂ accumulates within the low DO bottom water (hypoxic water) and causes increasing of carbonic acid content which results in low pH. Concentrations of dissolved CO₂ and pH are highly correlated with DO concentration. The summertime low DO and acidification (low pH) occur in the lower layer every year. The accumulated CO₂ during the summer season is dispersed to the atmosphere at the beginning of mixing season.     

Culture-dependent and independent analyses of subsurface microbial communities in oil-bearing strata of the Sagara oil reservoir

Abstract   Culture-dependent and independent methods were used to evaluate the microbial communities in cores collected at depths up to 200 m in oil-bearing and oil-free strata near the Sagara oil reservoir near Shizuoka, Japan. Direct microbial counts revealed much higher numbers (2.2 × 10⁴−7.9 × 10⁶/g) of microbes in the oil-bearing strata than in the oil-free zones, where counts were uniform at approximately 1.0 × 10⁴/g. Molecular taxonomic analyses via 16S rRNA gene sequence comparisons showed that the oil-free strata were dominated by members of the γ-Proteobacteria including Pseudomonas , Stenotrophomonas and Sphingomonas , whereas the oil-bearing strata were dominated by a single species closely related to Pseudomonas stutzeri . All archaeal clones were phylogenetically affiliated with the uncultured soil group in Crenarchaeota with the exception of a single phylotype that belonged to the genus Thermococcus . Culture-dependent analysis was carried out by most-probable-number culturing as well as direct plating to determine viable cell counts, using both complex organic substrates or native oil and autotrophic media. Both culture-dependent and independent methods revealed the abundant cultivable member was the aerobic oil-degrading bacterium Pseudomonas stutzeri and neither autotrophs nor anaerobic heterotrophs could be detected in the oil-bearing strata.     

Terrestrial heat flow at Hirabayashi on Awaji Island, south-west Japan

Abstract Terrestrial heat flow at Hirabayashi in Awaji Island, south-west Japan, was investigated using the deep borehole penetrating through the Nojima Fault, which was activated during the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake, by measuring the thermal conductivity of basement rocks. Using the temperature logging data, the value of terrestrial heat flow in Hirabayashi was found to be 56.6 ± 5.2 mW/m². The relationship between cut-off depth of aftershocks of the Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake in Hirabayashi and terrestrial heat flow are discussed. The cut-off depth roughly corresponds to isotherms of 300°C.