An analytical approximation of the distribution of total hydrocarbon discoveries as a function of discovery number

Recently, Manly's method has been successfully applied to hydrocarbon exploration modeling in order to approximate the expected value and the standard deviation of the total amount of hydrocarbons discovered. This method is much faster than running prolonged simulations normally required by the probabilistic model of the hydrocarbon discovery process, and the results are very accurate. This paper extends the usefulness of the approximation method by developing an approximate analytical model of the whole probability distribution of the total volume of hydrocarbons discovered. The mean and the standard deviation from Manly's approximation are used to help set the parameters of a family of beta distributions, to represent the distributions of the total amount of hydrocarbons discovered from the beginning to the end of the exploration process in an area. Three real datasets—the Nova Scotian Shelf from offshore northeastern Canada, the Bistcho Play, and the Zama Play from northwestern Canada—are chosen to verify the methodology developed. Confidence intervals of the forecast for each number of discovered fields are constructed from the analytical approximation and compared with confidence intervals generated by the simulation. Sensitivity analyses are performed to show that the idea of using a family of beta distributions is a robust approximation.     

Some consequences of a liquid water saturated regolith in early Martian history

Flooding of low-lying areas of the Martian regolith may have occurred early in the planet's history when a comparatively dense primitive atmosphere existed. If this model is valid, the following are some pedogenic and mineralogical consequences to be expected. Fluctuation of the water table in response to any seasonal or longer term causes would have resulted in precipitation of ferric oxyhydroxides with the development of a vesicular duricrust (or hardpan). Disruption of such a crust by scarp undercutting or frost heaving accompanied by wind deflation of fines could account for the boulders visible on Utopia Planitia in the vicinity of the second Viking lander site. Laboratory and field evidence on Earth suggests that under weakly oxidizing conditions lepidocrocite (rather than goethite) would have preferentially formed in the Martian regolith from the weathering of ferrous silicates, accompanied by montmorillonite, nontronite, and cronstedtite. Maghemite may have formed as a low-temperature dehydrate of lepidocrocite or directly from ferrous precursors.     

Measurements Of Thermal Updraft Intensity Over Complex Terrain Using American White Pelicans And A Simple Boundary-Layer Forecast Model

An examination of boundary-layer meteorological and avian aerodynamic theories suggests that soaring birds can be used to measure the magnitude of vertical air motions within the boundary layer. These theories are applied to obtain mixed-layer normalized thermal updraft intensity over both flat and complex terrain from the climb rates of soaring American white pelicans and from diagnostic boundary-layer model-produced estimates of the boundary-layer depth z_i and the convective velocity scale w_*. Comparison of the flatland data with the profiles of normalized updraft velocity obtained from previous studies reveals that the pelican-derived measurements of thermal updraft intensity are in close agreement with those obtained using traditional research aircraft and large eddy simulation (LES) in the height range of 0.2 to 0.8 z_i. Given the success of this method, the profiles of thermal vertical velocity over the flatland and the nearby mountains are compared. This comparison shows that these profiles are statistically indistinguishable over this height range, indicating that the profile for thermal updraft intensity varies little over this sample of complex terrain. These observations support the findings of a recent LES study that explored the turbulent structure of the boundary layer using a range of terrain specifications. For terrain similar in scale to that encountered in this study, results of the LES suggest that the terrain caused less than an 11% variation in the standard deviation of vertical velocity.     

Using sediment ‘fingerprints’ to assess sediment-budget errors,North Halawa Valley,Oahu, Hawaii, 1991–92

Reliable estimates of sediment-budget errors are important for interpreting sediment-budget results. Sediment-budget errors are commonly considered equal to sediment-budget imbalances, which may underestimate actual sediment-budget errors if they include compensating positive and negative errors. We modified the sediment ‘fingerprinting’ approach to qualitatively evaluate compensating errors in an annual (1991) fine (<63 μm) sediment budget for the North Halawa Valley, a mountainous, forested drainage basin on the island of Oahu, Hawaii, during construction of a major highway. We measured concentrations of aeolian quartz and ¹³⁷Cs in sediment sources and fluvial sediments, and combined concentrations of these aerosols with the sediment budget to construct aerosol budgets. Aerosol concentrations were independent of the sediment budget, hence aerosol budgets were less likely than sediment budgets to include compensating errors. Differences between sediment-budget and aerosol-budget imbalances therefore provide a measure of compensating errors in the sediment budget. The sediment-budget imbalance equalled 25 per cent of the fluvial fine-sediment load. Aerosol-budget imbalances were equal to 19 per cent of the fluvial ¹³⁷Cs load and 34 per cent of the fluvial quartz load. The reasonably close agreement between sediment- and aerosol-budget imbalances indicates that compensating errors in the sediment budget were not large and that the sediment-budget imbalance is a reliable measure of sediment-budget error. We attribute at least one-third of the 1991 fluvial fine-sediment load to highway construction. Continued monitoring indicated that highway construction produced 90 per cent of the fluvial fine-sediment load during 1992. Erosion of channel margins and attrition of coarse particles provided most of the fine sediment produced by natural processes. Hillslope processes contributed relatively minor amounts of sediment. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dust emission from wet and dry playas in the Mojave Desert,USA

The interactions between playa hydrology and playa‐surface sediments are important factors that control the type and amount of dust emitted from playas as a result of wind erosion. The production of evaporite minerals during evaporative loss of near‐surface ground water results in both the creation and maintenance of several centimeters or more of loose sediment on and near the surfaces of wet playas. Observations that characterize the texture, mineralogic composition and hardness of playa – surfaces at Franklin Lake, Soda Lake and West Cronese Lake playas in the Mojave Desert (California), along with imaging of dust emission using automated digital photography, indicate that these kinds of surface sediment are highly susceptible to dust emission. The surfaces of wet playas are dynamic surface texture and sediment availability to wind erosion change rapidly, primarily in response to fluctuations in water‐table depth, rainfall and rates of evaporation. In contrast, dry playas are characterized by ground water at depth. Consequently, dry playas commonly have hard surfaces that produce little or no dust if undisturbed except for transient silt and clay deposited on surfaces by wind and water. Although not the dominant type of global dust, salt‐rich dusts from wet playas may be important with respect to radiative properties of dust plumes, atmospheric chemistry, windborne nutrients and human health. Published in 2007 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.