全球气候变化及其影响

全球气候变化及其对社会与自然系统产生的影响已日益受到全世界各国政府与广大民众的关注。与天气和气候有关的灾害给人类生命财产造成的损失日益增大,社会与生态系统似乎变得日趋脆弱。人们关心刚刚过去的20世纪的天气与气候发生了什么变化,更希望了解未来的21世纪,人类居住的地球会出现什么样的气候情景。根据一些国家和地区的观测记录、研究成果以及科学家们对气候变化的评估与预测展望,对全球气候变化问题进行概括。首先阐明20世纪地区性气候变化的事实;并根据政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)科学技术报告中关于20世纪全球气候变化进行的总结性评估以及对21世纪全球气候变化的预测,作为阐述过去与未来全球气候变化的主要依据。同时,还介绍了一些科学家对IPCC关于全球气候变化的结论所持的不同观点或质疑。还就气候变化对社会与自然系统可能产生的影响略作论述。     

大陆岩石圈导电性的研究方法

随着地球科学的进展 ,大陆岩石圈导电性结构的研究越来越引起人们的重视 ,而超宽频带大地电磁测深则是目前用于探测岩石圈导电性最有效的地球物理先进技术。它把现代性能优良的宽频带大地电磁系统 (MT 2 4NS或V5 2 0 0 0 )与长周期智能化大地电磁系统 (LIMS)配套使用 ,采集地面上频率范围为n× 10 -4～n× 10 2 Hz的天然电磁场信号 ,并通过一系列数据处理和反演计算 ,获得深达下地壳和上地幔的地下导电性结构模型。此模型不仅可以提供有关岩石圈地质构造轮廓的信息 ,更重要的是可以间接反映现今地下深部的热结构特征和物质状态分布特点。多年来 ,应用超宽频带大地电磁测深对青藏高原岩石圈导电性结构的研究表明 ,高原的中、下地壳确实是良导电性的 ;它可能说明西藏地壳中普遍存在岩石的局部熔融 ,或地热流体。沿着应县—商河剖面的大地电磁测深研究结果从电性的角度证明了太行山山前断裂为一组向东倾斜的深断裂 ,华北地区岩石圈以其为界划分为东、西两区 ;东区为低阻区 ,与构造活动区的岩石圈导电性特征相符 ;西区为高阻区 ,表现出稳定大陆区岩石圈导电性结构的特点。     

Paleocene deep-water sediments and radiolarian faunas: Implications for evolution of Yarlung-Zangbo foreland basin, southern Tibet

Only a few Paleocene radiolarian assemblages have been reported, while the Early Paleocene zonal schemes remain poorly delineated. The Early Paleocene on-land radiolarians were described in the Hidaka melange belt of Japan and the North Island of New Zeal…     

Numerical simulations of deformation and movement of blocks within North China in response to 1976 Tangshan earthquake

Using methods of discontinuous deformation analysis and finite element (DDA+FEM), this paper simulates dynamic processes of the Tangshan earthquake of 1976, which occurred in the northern North China where its internal blocks apparently interacted. Studies focus upon both the movement and deformation of the blocks, in particular, the Ordos block, and variations of stress states on the boundary faults. The Tangshan earthquake was composed of three events: slipping motions of NNE-striking major fault, NE-striking fault near the northeastern end of the NNE-striking fault, and NW-striking fault on the southeastern side of the NNE-striking fault. Compared with previous studies, our model yields a result that is more agreeable with the configuration of aftershock distributions. A number of data are presented, such as the principle stress field during the earthquake, contours of the maximum shear stress, the strike-slip deformation between blocks near the earthquake focus, time-dependent variations of slips of earthquake-triggered faulting, the maximum slip distance, and stress drops. These results are in accord with the earthquake source mechanism, basic parameters from earthquake wave study, macro-isoseismic line, observed horizontal displacement vectors, etc. The Tangshan earthquake exerted different influences on the adjacent blocks and boundary faults between them, thus resulting in differential movement and deformation. The Ordos block seems to have experienced the small-scale counterclockwise rotation and deformation, but its northeast part, bounded on the east by the Taihangshan and on the north by the Yanshan and Yinshan belts, underwent relatively stronger deformation. The Tangshan earthquake also changed the stress state of boundary faults of the North China, leading to an increase in shear stress and a decrease in normal stress in the NW-trending Zhangjiakou-Penglai fault through Tangshan City and the northern border faults of the Ordos block, and therefore raises the potential risk of earthquake occurrence. This result is supported by the facts that a series of Ms ≥ 6 earthquakes took place at the northern margin of the Ordos block after the Tangshan earthquake.     

Asymmetric one‐storey elastic systems with non‐linear viscous and viscoelastic dampers: Simplified analysis and supplemental damping system design

Investigated is the accuracy in estimating the response of asymmetric one‐storey systems with non‐linear viscoelastic (VE) dampers by analysing the corresponding linear viscous system wherein all non‐linear VE dampers are replaced by their energy‐equivalent linear viscous dampers. The response of the corresponding linear viscous system is determined by response history analysis (RHA) and by response spectrum analysis (RSA) extended for non‐classically damped systems. The flexible and stiff edge deformations and plan rotation of the corresponding linear viscous system determined by the extended RSA procedure is shown to be sufficiently accurate for design applications with errors generally between 10 and 20%. Although similar accuracy is also shown for the ‘pseudo‐velocity’ of non‐linear VE dampers, the peak force of the non‐linear VE damper cannot be estimated directly from the peak damper force of the corresponding linear viscous system. A simple correction for damper force is proposed and shown to be accurate (with errors not exceeding 15%). For practical applications, an iterative linear analysis procedure is developed for determining the amplitude‐ and frequency‐dependent supplemental damping properties of the corresponding linear viscous system and for estimating the response of asymmetric one‐storey systems with non‐linear VE dampers from the earthquake design (or response) spectrum. Finally, a procedure is developed for designing non‐linear supplemental damping systems that satisfy given design criteria for a given design spectrum. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于约束点的曲线一致性化简

详细探讨了基于平面上的特征约束点(无论在曲线上还是在曲线外)的曲线化简，并针对各种情况提出了一致性化简的方法。     

利用信噪比削弱GPS多路径效应的研究

由于多路径误差的非时空相关性,使其成为双差模型中较难解除的误差源。本文利用观测值的信噪比对观测值质量进行评价,通过降低受多路径效应影响的观测值的权重,从而达到削减多路径误差的目的。最后通过实验数据解算结果的重复性验证了此方法的有效性和可靠性。     

Continental subduction and exhumation of UHP rocks. Structural and geochronological insights from the Dabieshan (East China)

In the Dabieshan, the available models for exhumation of ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) rocks are poorly constrained by structural data. A comprehensive structural and kinematic map and a general cross-section of the Dabieshan including its foreland fold belt and the Northern Dabieshan Domain (Foziling and Luzenguang groups) are presented here. South Dabieshan consists from bottom to top of stacked allochtons: (1) an amphibolite facies gneissic unit, devoid of UHP rocks, interpreted here as the relative autochton; (2) an UHP allochton; (3) a HP rock unit (Susong group) mostly retrogressed into greenschist facies micaschists; (4) a weakly metamorphosed Proterozoic slate and sandstone unit; and (5) an unmetamorphosed Cambrian to Early Triassic sedimentary sequence unconformably covered by Jurassic sandstone. All these units exhibit a polyphase ductile deformation characterized by (i) a NW–SE lineation with a top-to-the-NW shearing, and (ii) a southward refolding of early ductile fabrics.

The Central Dabieshan is a 100-km scale migmatitic dome. Newly discovered eclogite xenoliths in a Cretaceous granitoid dated at 102 Ma by the U–Pb method on titanite demonstrate that migmatization post-dates HP–UHP metamorphism. Ductile faults formed in the subsolidus state coeval to migmatization allow us to characterize the structural pattern of doming. Along the dome margins, migmatite is gneissified under post-solidus conditions and mylonitic–ultramylonitic fabrics commonly develop. The north and west boundaries of the Central Dabieshan metamorphics, i.e. the Xiaotian–Mozitan and Macheng faults, are ductile normal faults formed before Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous. A Cretaceous reworking is recorded by synkinematic plutons.

North of the Xiaotian–Mozitan fault, the North Dabieshan Domain consists of metasediments and orthogneiss (Foziling and Luzenguang groups) metamorphosed under greenschist to amphibolite facies which never experienced UHP metamorphism. A rare N–S-trending lineation with top-to-the-south shearing is dated at 260 Ma by the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method on muscovite. This early structure related to compressional tectonics is reworked by top-to-the-north extensional shear bands.

The main deformation of the Dabieshan consists of a NW–SE-stretching lineation which wraps around the migmatitic dome but exhibits a consistently top-to-the-NW sense of shear. The Central Dabieshan is interpreted as an extensional migmatitic dome bounded by an arched, top-to-the-NW, detachment fault. This structure may account for a part of the UHP rock exhumation. However, the abundance of amphibolite restites in the Central Dabieshan migmatites and the scarcity of eclogites (found only in a few places) argue for an early stage of exhumation and retrogression of UHP rocks before migmatization. This event is coeval to the N–S extensional structures described in the North Dabieshan Domain. Recent radiometric dates suggest that early exhumation and subsequent migmatization occurred in Triassic–Liassic times. The main foliation is deformed by north-verging recumbent folds coeval to the south-verging folds of the South Dabieshan Domain. An intense Cretaceous magmatism accounts for thermal resetting of most of the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates.

A lithosphere-scale exhumation model, involving continental subduction, synconvergence extension with inversion of southward thrusts into NW-ward normal faults and crustal melting is presented.     

从118.75 GHz附近六通道亮温反演大气温度廓线的数值模拟研究

为了能在静止气象卫星上实现微波被动遥感探测大气温度廓线,并保持一定的地面空间分辨率(如视场小于60 km),就需要使用高频微波及大天线.欧洲和美国下一代静止气象卫星上都已考虑采用118.75 GHz附近通道.为了充分了解118.75 GHz附近通道遥感反演温度廓线的能力,为仪器研制及今后资料的解释反演提供必要的基础数据,作者开展了采用118.75 GHz附近六个通道遥感反演大气温度廓线的数值模拟研究.统计反演的数值试验表明,118.75 GHz附近六通道对温度垂直分布有一定的遥感反演能力;温度反演较好的层次对应于权重函数峰值所在的位置.     

广东省空气质量预报系统

文章介绍了广东省气象系统开展空气质量预报的概况，包括使用的预报工具，其预报能力与业务运行的预报质量分析，以及进一步提高预报水平的一些设想。