Adapting to Climate Impacts on the Supply and Demand for Water

The prospect of climate change adds to future water supply and demand uncertainties and reinforces the need for institutions that facilitate adaptation to changing conditions and promote efficient management of supplies and facilities. High costs and limited opportunities for increasing water supplies with dams, reservoirs, and other infrastructure have curbed the traditional supply-side approach to planning in recent decades. Although new infrastructure may be an appropriate response to climate-induced shifts in hydrologic regimes and water demands, it is difficult to plan for and justify expensive new projects when the magnitude, timing, and even the direction of the changes are unknown. On the other hand, evaluating margins of safety for long-lived structures such as dams and levees should consider the prospect that a greenhouse warming could produce greater hydrologic variability and storm extremes. Integrated river basin management can provide cost-effective increases in reliable supplies in the event of greenhouse warming. With water becoming scarcer and susceptible to variations and changes in the climate, demand management is critical for balancing future demands with supplies. Although regulatory and voluntary measures belong in a comprehensive demand management strategy, greater reliance on markets and prices to allocate supplies and introduce incentives to conserve will help reduce the costs of adapting to climate change. Federal water planning guidelines allow for consideration of plans incorporating changes in existing statutes, regulations, and other institutional arrangements that might be needed to facilitate water transfers and promote efficient management practices in response to changing supply and demand conditions.     

Temporal evolution of the kerguelen plume: Geochemical evidence from 38 to 82 ma lavas forming the Ninetyeast ridge

Abstract Basaltic basement has been recovered by deep-sea drilling at seven sites on the linear Ninetyeast Ridge in the eastern Indian Ocean. Studies of the recovered lavas show that this ridge formed from ~ 82 to 38 Ma as a series of subaerial volcanoes that were created by the northward migration of the Indian Plate over a fixed magma source in the mantle. The Sr, Nd and Pb isotopic ratios of lavas from the Ninetyeast Ridge range widely, but they largely overlap with those of lavas from the Kerguelen Archipelago, thereby confirming previous inferences that the Kerguelen plume was an important magma source for the Ninetyeast Ridge. Particularly important are the ~ 81 Ma Ninetyeast Ridge lavas from DSDP Site 216 which has an anomalous subsidence history (Coffin 1992). These lavas are FeTi-rich tholeiitic basalts with isotopic ratios that overlap with those of highly alkalic, Upper Miocene lavas in the Kerguelen Archipelago. The isotopic characteristics of the latter which erupted in an intraplate setting have been proposed to be the purest expression of the Kerguelen plume (Weis et al. 1993a,b). Despite the overlap in isotopic ratios, there are important compositional differences between lavas erupted on the Ninetyeast Ridge and in the Kerguelen Archipelago. The Ninetyeast Ridge lavas are dominantly tholeiitic basalts with incompatible element abundance ratios, such as La/Yb and Zr/Nb, which are intermediate between those of Indian Ocean MORB (mid-ocean ridge basalt) and the transitional to alkalic basalts erupted in the Kerguelen Archipelago. These compositional differences reflect a much larger extent of melting for the Ninetyeast Ridge lavas, and the proximity of the plume to a spreading ridge axis. This tectonic setting contrasts with that of the recent alkalic lavas in the Kerguelen Archipelago which formed beneath the thick lithosphere of the Kerguelen Plateau. From ~ 82 to 38 Ma there was no simple, systematic temporal variation of Sr, Nd and Pb isotopic ratios in Ninetyeast Ridge lavas. Therefore all of the isotopic variability cannot be explained by aging of a compositionally uniform plume. Although Class et al. (1993) propose that some of the isotopic variations reflect such aging, we infer that most of the isotopic heterogeneity in lavas from the Ninetyeast Ridge and Kerguelen Archipelago can be explained by mixing of the Kerguelen plume with a depleted MORB-like mantle component. However, with this interpretation some of the youngest, 42–44 Ma, lavas from the southern Ninetyeast Ridge which have²⁰⁶pb/²⁰⁴Pb ratios exceeding those in Indian Ocean MORB and Kerguelen Archipelago lavas require a component with higher²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, such as that expressed in lavas from St. Paul Island.     

Chemical response of the middle atmosphere to changes in the ultraviolet solar flux

Time variations in the solar flux between 1000 and 4000 Å induce changes in the concentrations of minor constituents in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. The response of mesospheric ozone to variations in the Lyman α line over the course of several solar rotations may be of measurable magnitude. Large Lyman α fluxes lead to small O₃ densities above 65 km due to the enhanced dissociation of H₂O and resultant destruction of odd oxygen by odd hydrogen. An increase in continuum and Lyman α fluxes causes a slight enhancement in both the odd oxygen and hydrogen concentrations in the upper stratosphere.     

Atmosphere,Weather, and Baseball: How Much Farther Do Baseballs Really Fly at Denver's Coors Field?

This article tests the widely held assumption that batted baseballs travel 10 percent farther in Denver than in major‐league ballparks at sea level. An analysis of (1) National League fly‐ball‐distance data for 1995–1998, (2) the micrometeorology of Coors Field, and (3) weather dynamics along the Colorado front range shows that the assumed elevation enhancement of fly‐ball distance has been greatly overestimated due to prevailing weather conditions in downtown Denver. We conclude that the record number of home runs at Coors Field must be attributed as much to the personnel of the Colorado Rockies team and the effects of mile‐high elevation on the act of pitching a baseball as to the effect of low air density on fly‐ball distance.     

Permafrost science and secondary education: direct involvement of teachers and students in field research

Permafrost and periglacial geomorphology are absent from the science curriculum in most secondary schools in the United States. This is an unfortunate situation given the recent increases in development and environmental concerns in northern latitudes and high-mountain areas, and the interesting examples of basic scientific principles found in the history of research on periglacial geomorphology and permafrost. In 1997 and 1998, a University of Delaware research group studying permafrost and periglacial geomorphology in northern Alaska participated in the National Science Foundation's (NSF) Teachers Experiencing the Antarctic and Arctic (TEA) Program. In each of these years, a high school teacher and a student traveled as part of the research team to the North Slope of Alaska. They learned about the landscape, collected active-layer thickness and temperature measurements, and assisted in data analysis. Results from studies of active-layer thickness variability and ground temperature contributed to a series of long-term observations and international research on the impacts of global climate change. Since their expeditions, the teachers have shared their experiences with their classrooms and communities in several ways, including public lectures and the Internet. Classroom activities are available to the public through the TEA web site (http://tea.rice.edu). This experience may heighten public awareness of permafrost and contribute to it becoming a useful part of the secondary curriculum.     

DTSGUI: A Python Program to Process and Visualize Fiber-Optic Distributed Temperature Sensing Data

Fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing (FO-DTS) has proven to be a transformative technology for the hydrologic sciences, with application to diverse problems including hyporheic exchange, groundwater/surface-water interaction, fractured-rock characterization, and cold regions hydrology. FO-DTS produces large, complex, and information-rich datasets. Despite the potential of FO-DTS, adoption of the technology has been impeded by lack of tools for data processing, analysis, and visualization. New tools are needed to efficiently and fully capitalize on the information content of FO-DTS datasets. To this end, we present DTSGUI, a public-domain Python-based software package for editing, parsing, processing, statistical analysis, georeferencing, and visualization of FO-DTS data.     

Scenario Evaluator for Electrical Resistivity Survey Pre‐modeling Tool

Geophysical tools have much to offer users in environmental, water resource, and geotechnical fields; however, techniques such as electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) are often oversold and/or overinterpreted due to a lack of understanding of the limitations of the techniques, such as the appropriate depth intervals or resolution of the methods. The relationship between ERI data and resistivity is nonlinear; therefore, these limitations depend on site conditions and survey design and are best assessed through forward and inverse modeling exercises prior to field investigations. In this approach, proposed field surveys are first numerically simulated given the expected electrical properties of the site, and the resulting hypothetical data are then analyzed using inverse models. Performing ERI forward/inverse modeling, however, requires substantial expertise and can take many hours to implement. We present a new spreadsheet‐based tool, the Scenario Evaluator for Electrical Resistivity (SEER), which features a graphical user interface that allows users to manipulate a resistivity model and instantly view how that model would likely be interpreted by an ERI survey. The SEER tool is intended for use by those who wish to determine the value of including ERI to achieve project goals, and is designed to have broad utility in industry, teaching, and research.     

Application of geochemical and stable isotopic tracers to investigate groundwater salinity in the Ochi-Narkwa Basin,Ghana

Rainwater, groundwater and soil-water samples were analysed to assess groundwater geochemistry and the origin of salinity in the Ochi-Narkwa basin of the Central Region of Ghana. The samples were measured for major ions and stable isotopes (δ¹⁸O, δ²H and δ¹³C). The Cl^? content in rainwater decreased with distance from the coast. The major hydrochemical facies were Na-Cl for the shallow groundwaters and Ca-Mg-HCO₃, Na-Cl and Ca-Mg-Cl-SO₄ for the deep groundwaters. Groundwater salinization is caused largely by halite dissolution and to a minor extent by silicate weathering and seawater intrusion. Stable isotope composition of the groundwaters followed a slope of 3.44, suggesting a mixing line. Chloride profiles in the soil zone revealed the existence of salt crusts, which support halite dissolution in the study area. A conceptual flow model developed to explain the mechanism of salinization showed principal groundwater flow in the NW–SE direction.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR K. Heal     

Interaction of wind and cold-season hydrologic processes on erosion from complex topography following wildfire in sagebrush steppe

Wildfire is a natural component of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) steppe rangelands that induces temporal shifts in plant community physiognomy, ground surface conditions, and erosion rates. Fire alteration of the vegetation structure and ground cover in these ecosystems commonly amplifies soil losses by wind- and water-driven erosion. Much of the fire-related erosion research for sagebrush steppe has focused on either erosion by wind over gentle terrain or water-driven erosion under high-intensity rainfall on complex topography. However, many sagebrush rangelands are geographically positioned in snow-dominated uplands with complex terrain in which runoff and sediment delivery occur primarily in winter months associated with cold-season hydrology. Current understanding is limited regarding fire effects on the interaction of wind- and cold-season hydrologic-driven erosion processes for these ecosystems. In this study, we evaluated fire impacts on vegetation, ground cover, soils, and erosion across spatial scales at a snow-dominated mountainous sagebrush site over a 2-year period post-fire. Vegetation, ground cover, and soil conditions were assessed at various plot scales (8 m² to 3.42 ha) through standard field measures. Erosion was quantified through a network of silt fences (n = 24) spanning hillslope and side channel or swale areas, ranging from 0.003 to 3.42 ha in size. Sediment delivery at the watershed scale (129 ha) was assessed by suspended sediment samples of streamflow through a drop-box v-notch weir. Wildfire consumed nearly all above-ground live vegetation at the site and resulted in more than 60% bare ground (bare soil, ash, and rock) in the immediate post-fire period. Widespread wind-driven sediment loading of swales was observed over the first month post-fire and extensive snow drifts were formed in these swales each winter season during the study. In the first year, sediment yields from north- and south-facing aspects averaged 0.99–8.62 t ha⁻¹ at the short-hillslope scale (~0.004 ha), 0.02–1.65 t ha⁻¹ at the long-hillslope scale (0.02–0.46 ha), and 0.24–0.71 t ha⁻¹ at the swale scale (0.65–3.42 ha), and watershed scale sediment yield was 2.47 t ha⁻¹. By the second year post fire, foliar cover exceeded 120% across the site, but bare ground remained more than 60%. Sediment yield in the second year was greatly reduced across short- to long-hillslope scales (0.02–0.04 t ha⁻¹), but was similar to first-year measures for swale plots (0.24–0.61 t ha⁻¹) and at the watershed scale (3.05 t ha⁻¹). Nearly all the sediment collected across all spatial scales was delivered during runoff events associated with cold-season hydrologic processes, including rain-on-snow, rain-on-frozen soils, and snowmelt runoff. Approximately 85–99% of annual sediment collected across all silt fence plots each year was from swales. The high levels of sediment delivered across hillslope to watershed scales in this study are attributed to observed preferential loading of fine sediments into swale channels by aeolian processes in the immediate post-fire period and subsequent flushing of these sediments by runoff from cold-season hydrologic processes. Our results suggest that the interaction of aeolian and cold-season hydrologic-driven erosion processes is an important component for consideration in post-fire erosion assessment and prediction and can have profound implications for soil loss from these ecosystems. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.