Predictability of tropical cyclone events on intraseasonal timescales with the ECMWF monthly forecast model

The objective of this study is to provide evidence of predictability on intraseasonal time scales (10–30 days) for western North Pacific tropical cyclone formation and subsequent tracks using the 51-member ECMWF 32-day forecasts made once a week from 5 June through 25 December 2008. Ensemble storms are defined by grouping ensemble member vortices whose positions are within a specified separation distance that is equal to 180 n mi at the initial forecast time t and increases linearly to 420 n mi at Day 14 and then is constant. The 12-h track segments are calculated with a Weighted-Mean Vector Motion technique in which the weighting factor is inversely proportional to the distance from the endpoint of the previous 12-h motion vector. Seventy-six percent of the ensemble storms had five or fewer member vortices. On average, the ensemble storms begin 2.5 days before the first entry of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-track file, tend to translate too slowly in the deep tropics, and persist for longer periods over land. A strict objective matching technique with the JTWC storms is combined with a second subjective procedure that is then applied to identify nearby ensemble storms that would indicate a greater likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in that region with that track orientation. The ensemble storms identified in the ECMWF 32-day forecasts provided guidance on intraseasonal timescales of the formations and tracks of the three strongest typhoons and two other typhoons, but not for two early season typhoons and the late season Dolphin. Four strong tropical storms were predicted consistently over Week-1 through Week-4, as was one weak tropical storm. Two other weak tropical storms, three tropical cyclones that developed from precursor baroclinic systems, and three other tropical depressions were not predicted on intraseasonal timescales. At least for the strongest tropical cyclones during the peak season, the ECMWF 32-day ensemble provides guidance of formation and tracks on 10–30 day timescales.     

Food habits of red drum and spotted seatrout in a restored mangrove impoundment

Benthic resource utilization by, red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) and spotted seatrout (Cynoscion nebulosus) was studied in a restored, mangrove-rimmed impoundment (Cabbagehead Bayou) of Upper Tampa Bay, Florida, and in a nearby, natural site of unaltered tidal regime (Double Branch Bay). Diets of fish captured from August 1990 to May 1992 were determined from stomach content analysis. Simultaneously, food availability was evaluated by sampling benthic macroinvertebrates, mobile decapods, and small fish. Red drum and spotted seatrout utilized the restored habitat 1 yr after it was opened to tidal influence. Both species also were collected in the natural mangrove. Although there were noted differences in benthic assemblages between the two sites, red drum and spotted seatrout exhibited flexibility in diet, feeding on abundant and accessible prey. The high abundance of microcrustacea, such as amphipods, on detritus accumulated in the restored habitat constituted a main food resource for both fish species. Major food items in the diet of small (<200 mm) red drum were amphipods, mysids, and nereid and arenicolid polychaetes. Large (200–590 mm) red drum fed on polychaetes, xanthid crabs, palaemonid shrimp, and small fishes. Spotted seatrout preyed primarily upon mysids, shrimp, and small fishes, and to a lesser extent, upon a nereid polychaete. Our findings on fish feeding in a restored mangrove impoundment indicated that the detrital-associated benthic community is utilized by reinvading fish within a short time period, suggesting that not only habitat but food resources were augmented by the reopening of this wetland.     

Hydromechanical Behaviour of Rock-Bentonite Interfaces Under Compression

Summary Interfaces between geomaterials may be critical for the long term confinement of the engineered barriers of nuclear waste disposals, particularly if there is water flow. Hydromechanical compression tests have been performed on rock-bentonite interfaces representing the contact between a host rock (toarcian argillite) and an engineered barrier within a nuclear waste repository. The results show that there is no major influence of the bentonite fraction or the nature of the additive as long as the additive is inert (sand or crushed rock): all the interfaces are closed for low values of normal stress (about 4 MPa). On the other hand, the hydromechanical behaviour of the interfaces changes when a high fraction of cement is used. Moreover, it has been shown that bentonite is very sensitive to hydraulic erosion, producing flow channels within the interface zone. A numerical study confirms the importance of erosion for the hydromechanical behaviour of the interface. Authors’ address: Olivier Buzzi, Laboratoire Sols, Solides, Structures, Université Joseph Fourier, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble, Cedex 9, France     

Multi-Elemental Analysis of ATHO-G Rhyolitic Glass (MPI-DING Reference Material) by Femtosecond and Nanosecond LA-ICP-MS: Evidence for Significant Heterogeneity of B,V, Zn,Mo, Sn,Sb, Cs,W, Pt and Pb at the Millimetre Scale

This paper reports on the application of variants of LA-ICP-MS – including infrared femtosecond laser ablation (fs-LA) inductively coupled plasma-quadrupole mass spectrometry (ICP-QMS) and nanosecond laser ablation (ns-LA) coupled with single-collector sector-field (SF-) ICP-MS – to the in situ determination of trace elements in different splits of the reference material (RM) ATHO-G (MPI-DING). Analyses of the materials performed by fs- and ns-LA-ICP-MS demonstrated the efficiency of the techniques with typical accuracy at a level of ≤ ± 20%. One ‘anomalous’ split, however, displayed a significant discrepancy from the reference concentrations for B, V, Zn, Mo, Sn, Sb, Cs, W and Pb. Three- to six-fold enrichment of V, Mo, Cs and Pt relative to the reference contents in this split is likely to have been due to direct contact of the silicate melt with Pt crucible walls and ceramics. Boron, Zn, Sn, Sb, W and Pb depletion relative to the reference concentrations is probably due to siderophile element adsorption by the Pt walls and/or related to the formation of volatile-depleted compositional cords during the preparation process. Our results imply that additional precautions should be taken against volatile/siderophile element heterogeneity in marginal/surface layers (≤ 10 mm) during the preparation of RMs by the fusion technique.     

Mission design for Human Outer Planet Exploration (HOPE) using a magnetoplasma spacecraft

To send humans beyond Mars, a Human Outer Planet Exploration (HOPE) mission has been studied for new spacecraft concepts and technologies. In this paper, an interplanetary trajectory and a preliminary spacecraft design are presented for the HOPE visit to Callisto, one of Jupiter's moons. To design a round-trip trajectory for the mission, the characteristics of the spacecraft and its trajectories are analyzed. A detailed optimization approach is formulated to utilize a Variable Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket (VASIMR) engine with capabilities of variable specific impulse, variable engine efficiency, and engine on-off control. It is mainly illustrated that a 30 MW powered spacecraft can make the mission possible in a 5-year round trip constraint around the year 2045. Trajectories with different power and reactor options are also discussed. The results obtained in this study can be used for formulating an overall concept for the mission.     

ECMWF seasonal forecast system 3 and its prediction of sea surface temperature

The latest operational version of the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system is described. It shows noticeably improved skill for sea surface temperature (SST) prediction compared with previous versions, particularly with respect to El Nino related variability. Substantial skill is shown for lead times up to 1?year, although at this range the spread in the ensemble forecast implies a loss of predictability large enough to account for most of the forecast error variance, suggesting only moderate scope for improving long range El Nino forecasts. At shorter ranges, particularly 3?C6?months, skill is still substantially below the model-estimated predictability limit. SST forecast skill is higher for more recent periods than earlier ones. Analysis shows that although various factors can affect scores in particular periods, the improvement from 1994 onwards seems to be robust, and is most plausibly due to improvements in the observing system made at that time. The improvement in forecast skill is most evident for 3-month forecasts starting in February, where predictions of NINO3.4 SST from 1994 to present have been almost without fault. It is argued that in situations where the impact of model error is small, the value of improved observational data can be seen most clearly. Significant skill is also shown in the equatorial Indian Ocean, although predictive skill in parts of the tropical Atlantic are relatively poor. SST forecast errors can be especially high in the Southern Ocean.     

Characterization and utilization of noisy displacement signals from simple shear device using linear and kernel regression methods

Small strain testing of dynamic soil properties such as threshold strains, γ_tv, are often conducted using specialized devices such as dual-specimen simple-shear, as devices configured for large strain testing produce noisy signals in the small strain range. Working with a simple shear device originally developed for large-strain testing, we extend its low-strain capabilities by characterizing noisy signals and utilizing several statistical methods to extract meaningful responses in the small strain range. We utilize linear regression of a transformed variable to estimate the cyclic shear strain from a noisy signal and the confidence interval on its amplitude. We utilize Kernel regression with the Nadaraya–Watson estimator and a Gaussian kernel to evaluate vertical strain response. A practical utilization of these techniques is illustrated by evaluating threshold shear strains for volume change with a procedure that takes into account uncertainties in the measured shear and vertical strains.     

Comments on “SHORT NOTE: Extending simplified high-degree synthesis methods to second latitudinal derivatives of geopotential”

This comment corrects a number of errors in the paper “SHORT NOTE: Extending simplified high-degree synthesis methods to second latitudinal derivatives of geopotential”.