How sensitive are estimates of carbon fixation in agricultural models to input data?

Background

Accurate, high-resolution mapping of aboveground carbon density (ACD, Mg C ha^-1) could provide insight into human and environmental controls over ecosystem state and functioning, and could support conservation and climate policy development. However, mapping ACD has proven challenging, particularly in spatially complex regions harboring a mosaic of land use activities, or in remote montane areas that are difficult to access and poorly understood ecologically. Using a combination of field measurements, airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and satellite data, we present the first large-scale, high-resolution estimates of aboveground carbon stocks in Madagascar.

Results

We found that elevation and the fraction of photosynthetic vegetation (PV) cover, analyzed throughout forests of widely varying structure and condition, account for 27-67% of the spatial variation in ACD. This finding facilitated spatial extrapolation of LiDAR-based carbon estimates to a total of 2,372,680 ha using satellite data. Remote, humid sub-montane forests harbored the highest carbon densities, while ACD was suppressed in dry spiny forests and in montane humid ecosystems, as well as in most lowland areas with heightened human activity. Independent of human activity, aboveground carbon stocks were subject to strong physiographic controls expressed through variation in tropical forest canopy structure measured using airborne LiDAR.

Conclusions

High-resolution mapping of carbon stocks is possible in remote regions, with or without human activity, and thus carbon monitoring can be brought to highly endangered Malagasy forests as a climate-change mitigation and biological conservation strategy.     

Water and the density of silicate glasses

A review of published and newly measured densities for 40 hydrous silicate glasses indicates that the room-temperature partial molar volume of water is 12.0 ± 0.5 cm³/mol. This value holds for simple or mineral compositions as well as for complex natural glasses, from rhyolite to tephrite compositions, prepared up to 10–20 kbar pressures and containing up to 7 wt% H₂O. This volume does not vary either with the molar volume of the water-free silicate phase, with its degree of polymerization or with water speciation. Over a wide range of compositions, this constant value implies that the volume change for the reaction between hydroxyl ions and molecular water is zero and that, at least in glasses, speciation does not depend on pressure. Consistent with data from Ochs and Lange (1997, 1999), systematics in volume expansion for SiO₂–M₂O systems (M=H, Li, Na, K) suggests that the partial molar thermal expansion coefficient of H₂O is about 4 × 10⁻⁵ K⁻¹ in silicate glasses. Received: 30 June 1999 / Accepted: 5 November 1999     

Measuring snow ablation rates in alpine terrain with a mobile multioffset ground‐penetrating radar system

Ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) has become a promising technique in the field of snow hydrological research. It is commonly used to measure snow depth, density, and water equivalent over large distances or along gridded snow courses. Having built and tested a mobile lightweight set‐up, we demonstrate that GPR is capable of accurately measuring snow ablation rates in complex alpine terrain. Our set‐up was optimized for efficient measurements and consisted of a multioffset radar with four pairs of antennas mounted to a plastic sled, which was small enough to permit safe and convenient operations. Repeated measurements at intervals of 2 to 7 days were taken during the 2014/2015 winter season along 10 profiles of 50 to 200 m length within two valleys located in the eastern Swiss Alps. Resulting GPR‐based data of snow depth, density, and water equivalent, as well as their respective change over time, were in good agreement with concurrent manual measurements, in particular if accurate alignment between repeated overpasses could be achieved. Corresponding root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) values amounted to 4.2 cm for snow depth, 17 mm for snow water equivalent, and 22 kg/m³ for snow density, with similar RMSE values for corresponding differential data. With this performance, the presented radar set‐up has the potential to provide exciting new and extensive datasets to validate snowmelt models or to complement lidar‐based snow surveys.     

Future emissions of marine halogenated very-short lived substances under climate change

Halogenated Very Short-lived Substances (VSLS), such as bromoform, dibromomethane and methyl iodide, are naturally produced in the oceans and are involved in ozone depletion in the troposphere and the stratosphere. The effect of climate change on the oceanic emissions of these compounds is not well quantified. Based on present-day observed global oceanic and atmospheric concentrations, and historic and future data from three CMIP5 models, past and future sea-to-air fluxes of these VSLS are calculated. The simulations are used to infer possible effects of projected changes of physical forcing on emissions in different oceanic regimes. CMIP5 model output for 1979–2100 from the historical scenario and the RCP scenarios 2.6 and 8.5 are used as input data for the emission calculations. Of the parameters that have the main influence on the sea-to-air fluxes, the global sea surface temperatures show a steady increase during the twenty-first century, while the projected changes of sea surface wind speed is very small. The calculated emissions based on the historical CMIP5 model runs (1979–2005) increased over the 26 year period and agree well with the emissions based on ERA-Interim data. The future sea-to-air fluxes of VSLS generally increase during the twenty-first century under the assumption of constant concentration fields in the ocean and atmosphere. The multi-model mean global emissions of bromoform increase by 29.4% (9.0%) between 1986 and 2005 and 2081–2100 under RCP 8.5 (2.6) and dibromomethane and methyl iodide emissions increase by 23.3% (6.4%) and 5.5% (1.5%), respectively. Uncertainties of the future emission estimates, driven by ongoing environmental changes such as changing oceanic productivity (not considered in this study) are discussed.     

The death spiral of coal in the U.S.: will changes in U.S. Policy turn the tide?

ABSTRACT

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to stop the ongoing spiralling down of the U.S. coal industry. We discuss the origins of the decline and assess the effects of policy interventions by the Trump administration. We find that, with fierce competition from natural gas and renewables, a further decrease of coal consumption must be expected by the old and inefficient U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet. By contrast, we consider the overly optimistic (for coal producers) view of the U.S. Energy Information Agency, and test whether the tide for the U.S. coal industry could turn as a result of three potential support measures: (i) revoking the Clean Power Plan (CPP); (ii) facilitating access to the booming Asian market; and (iii) enhanced support for Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage (CCTS) technology. We investigate the short-term and long-term effects on U.S. coal production using a comprehensive partial equilibrium model of the world steam coal market, COALMOD-World (Holz, Haftendorn, Mendelevitch, & von Hirschhausen, 2016). We find that revoking the CPP could stop the downward trend of steam coal consumption in the U.S., but even allowing for additional exports, will not lead to a return of U.S. coal production to the levels of the 2000s, that is, over 900?Mt per year. When global steam coal use is aligned with the 2°C climate target, U.S. steam coal production drops to around 100?Mt per year by 2030 and below 50?Mt by 2050, even if CCTS is available and exports via the U.S. West Coast is possible.

Key policy insights

• Declining U.S. coal use is primarily caused by competition from natural gas and renewables not by environmental regulation of the coal sector.

• Without substantial policy support, U.S. coal-fired generation capacity will continue to decline rapidly.

• Revoking the Clean Power Plan will lead to about one eighth higher U.S. coal production in the next years.

• Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage does not prevent the rapid decline of coal use required under stringent climate policy.

• Even in the most extreme pro-coal scenarios with additional export possibilities, U.S. coal production will not return to its pre-2010 levels.

     

Precambrian and Early Paleozoic evolution of the Andean basement at Belen (northern Chile) and Cerro Uyarani (western Bolivia Altiplano)

Exposures of metamorphic basement in the Central Andes are scarce and reconstructions of the history of the Pacific margin of Gondwanaland must rely on a few isolated outcrops. We studied two areas of exposed basement in northernmost Chile (Belen) and westernmost Bolivia (Cerro Uyarani). The Belen metamorphic complex has been known for some time and consists of fault-bounded amphibolites, gneisses, schists, and minor quartzites overlain by folded Mesozoic to Cenozoic strata. The Cerro Uyarani is the only basement outcrop on the Bolivian Altiplano and has only recently been found and studied by geological reconnaissance. It consists of foliated mafic and felsic granulites, charnockites, and amphibolites. How do these basement occurrences compare and how do they relate to the other Precambrian crustal domains in the Central Andes? To answer these questions, we used geothermobarometers to reconstruct the P–T conditions of metamorphism, as well as geochemical analyses and petrological methods to study these rocks. The two basement blocks were found to have distinct geological histories and are probably separated by a major crustal domain boundary. Isotopic fingerprinting by Pb-isotopes clearly exclude Laurentian crustal components either in the protoliths or as reworked material. This signature is quite distinct from basement rocks farther south in Chile and northwestern Argentina.     

河北承德黑山铁矿床热液成矿特征及流体包裹体研究

黑山大型钒钛磁铁矿矿床产于大庙斜长岩杂岩体中,是承德地区最重要的"大庙式"岩浆型铁矿床。笔者在矿区野外地质观察过程中发现,穿插于斜长岩中的铁磷矿脉、磁铁矿硫化物矿脉有热液成矿作用的显示,表明黑山铁矿床成因除传统认为的岩浆期结晶、熔离、矿浆贯入成矿作用外,还有热液期的成矿作用发生。本文对热液成矿期铁磷矿石中磷灰石和矿化蚀变石英中的流体包裹体进行了显微测温和激光拉曼光谱分析。结果表明,磷灰石中原生包裹体可以分为气液两相包裹体、含子矿物包裹体、含液态CO2三相包裹体、单液相、单气相包裹体5类,均一温度主要集中于180～420℃,盐度主要集中于6.2%～38.9%NaCleq,流体包裹体气相成分主要为CO2、N2和CH4,液相成分主要为H2O,固相成分主要为方解石、石盐、白云石及铁氧化物子矿物。石英中流体包裹体类型和成分与磷灰石中的类似,但固相成分未发现石盐和不透明金属子矿物,均一温度变化于149～422℃,盐度变化于5.7%～22.9%NaCleq。成矿流体为CaCl2-NaCl-H2O-CO2体系,均一温度和盐度呈现正相关连续渐变的特征。铁磷矿石的磷灰石中原生包裹体为流体包裹体,盐度高,子矿物种类复杂,组成中富含CO2和CH4等,这些特征显示成矿流体以岩浆热液为主;成矿机理可能与大气降水对岩浆热液的稀释有关。