Sensitivity Analysis of Snow Cover to Climate Change Scenarios and Their Impact on Plant Habitats in Alpine Terrain

In high altitude areas snow cover duration largely determines the length of the growing season of the vegetation. A sensitivity study of snow cover to various scenarios of temperature and precipitation has been conducted to assess how snow cover and vegetation may respond for a very localized area of the high Swiss Alps (2050–2500 m above sea level). A surface energy balance model has been upgraded to compute snow depth and duration, taking into account solar radiation geometry over complex topography. Plant habitat zones have been defined and 23 species, whose photoperiodic preferences were documented in an earlier study, were grouped into each zone. The sensitivity of snowmelt to a change in mean, minimum and maximum temperature alone and a change in mean temperature combined with a precipitation change of +10% in winter and −10% in summer is investigated. A seasonal increase in the mean temperature of 3 to 5 K reduces snow cover depth and duration by more than a month on average. Snow melts two months earlier in the rock habitat zone with the mean temperature scenario than under current climate conditions. This allows the species in this habitat to flower earlier in a warmer climate, but not all plants are able to adapt to such changes.     

Characterization of a Pleistocene thermal spring in Mozambique

A hydrogeological study was conducted with the objective to investigate the only currently known hot spring of Sofala Province in Mozambique with respect to the origin of the water, the discharge, and its chemical composition. Field investigations comprised a general land use survey, mapping of sediment and water temperatures, discharge measurements and on-site water chemistry as well as sampling for further chemical analyses and groundwater dating. Thermal water discharge occurs along a 100 m long NE–SW zone with water temperatures ranging from 42 to 64.5°C. The thermal water is a low-mineralized sodium-chloride-sulfate water enriched in phosphate, fluorine and nickel. The silica geothermometer, the silica concentration of 43 mg/kg and the ratios of Br/Cl and I/Cl of 2.5?×?10^–3, suggest that the thermal water stems from approximately 5,000 m depth and had a long residence time with silicate rocks. This points towards Gorongosa Mountain as the water source area. ¹⁴C dating suggests a groundwater age of 11,000 years.     

Rangeland degradation assessment in Kyrgyzstan: vegetation and soils as indicators of grazing pressure in Naryn Oblast

Rangelands occupy more than 80% of the agricultural land in Kyrgyzstan. At least 30% of Kyrgyz pasture areas are considered to be subject to vegetation and soil degradation. Since animal husbandry is the economic basis to sustain people’s livelihoods, rangeland degradation presents a threat for the majority of the population. We present for the first time an ecological assessment of different pasture types in a remote area of the Naryn Oblast, using vegetation and soils as indicators of rangeland conditions. We analysed the current degree of utilization (grazing pressure), the amount of biomass, soil samples, and vegetation data, using cluster analysis as well as ordination techniques. Winter pastures (kyshtoo) are characterized by higher pH values (average of 7.27) and lower organic matter contents (average of 12.83%) compared to summer pastures (dzailoo) with average pH values of 6.03 and average organic matter contents of 21.05%. Additionally, summer pastures show higher above-ground biomass, and higher species richness and diversity. Our results support the hypothesis that winter pastures, which are located near settlements, suffer from over-utilisation, while the more distant summer pastures are subjected to much lower grazing pressure.     

The World Karst Aquifer Mapping project: concept,mapping procedure and map of Europe

Karst aquifers contribute substantially to freshwater supplies in many regions of the world, but are vulnerable to contamination and difficult to manage because of their unique hydrogeological characteristics. Many karst systems are hydraulically connected over wide areas and require transboundary exploration, protection and management. In order to obtain a better global overview of karst aquifers, to create a basis for sustainable international water-resources management, and to increase the awareness in the public and among decision makers, the World Karst Aquifer Mapping (WOKAM) project was established. The goal is to create a world map and database of karst aquifers, as a further development of earlier maps. This paper presents the basic concepts and the detailed mapping procedure, using France as an example to illustrate the step-by-step workflow, which includes generalization, differentiation of continuous and discontinuous carbonate and evaporite rock areas, and the identification of non-exposed karst aquifers. The map also shows selected caves and karst springs, which are collected in an associated global database. The draft karst aquifer map of Europe shows that 21.6% of the European land surface is characterized by the presence of (continuous or discontinuous) carbonate rocks; about 13.8% of the land surface is carbonate rock outcrop.

     

A lost Tethyan evaporitic basin: Evidence from a Cretaceous hemipelagic meta‐selenite – red chert association in the Eastern Mediterranean realm

Ancient evaporite deposits are geological archives of depositional environments characterized by a long‐term negative precipitation balance and bear evidence for global ocean element mass balance calculations. Here, Cretaceous selenite pseudomorphs from western Anatolia (‘Rosetta Marble’) — characterized by their exceptional morphological preservation — and their ‘marine’ geochemical signatures are described and interpreted in a process‐oriented context. These rocks recorded Late Cretaceous high‐pressure/low‐temperature, subduction‐related metamorphism with peak conditions of 1·0 to 1·2 GPa and 300 to 400°C. Metre‐scale, rock‐forming radiating rods, now present as fibrous calcite marble, clearly point to selenitic gypsum as the precursor mineral. Stratigraphic successions are recorded along a reconstructed proximal to distal transect. The cyclical alternation of selenite beds and radiolarian ribbon‐bedded cherts in the distal portions are interpreted as a two type of seawater system. During arid intervals, shallow marine brines cascaded downward into basinal settings and induced precipitation. During more humid times, upwelling‐induced radiolarian blooms caused the deposition of radiolarite facies. Interestingly, there is no comparable depositional setting known from the Cenozoic world. Meta‐selenite geochemical data (δ¹³C, δ¹⁸O and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr) plot within the range of reconstructed middle Cretaceous seawater signatures. Possible sources for the ¹³C‐enriched (mean 2·2‰) values include methanogenesis, gas hydrates and cold seep fluid exhalation. Spatially resolved component‐specific analysis of a rock slab displays isotopic variances between meta‐selenite crystals (mean δ¹³C 2·2‰) and host matrix (mean δ¹³C 1·3‰). The Cretaceous evaporite‐pseudomorphs of Anatolia represent a basin wide event coeval with the Aptian evaporites of the Proto‐Atlantic and the pseudomorphs share many attributes, including lateral distribution of 600 km and stratigraphic thickness of 1·5 to 2·0 km, with the evaporites formed during the younger Messinian salinity crisis. The Rosetta Marble of Anatolia may represent the best‐preserved selenite pseudomorphs worldwide and have a clear potential to act as a template for the study of meta‐selenite in deep time.     

Changes in water table level influence solute transport in uniform porous media

Changes in the water table level result in variable water saturation and variable hydrological fluxes at the interface between the unsaturated and saturated zone. This may influence the transport and fate of contaminants in the subsurface. The objective of this study was to examine the impact of a decreasing and an increasing water table on solute transport. We conducted tracer experiments at downward flow conditions in laboratory columns filled with two different uniform porous media under static and transient flow conditions either increasing or decreasing the water table. Tracer breakthrough curves were simulated using a mobile–immobile transport model. The resulting transport parameters were compared to identify dominant transport processes. Changes in the water table level affected dispersivities and mobile water fractions depending on the direction of water table movement and the grain size of the porous media. In fine glass beads, the water flow velocity was similar to the decline rate of the water table, and the mobile water fraction was decreased compared with steady‐state saturated conditions. However, immobile water was negligible. In coarse glass beads, water flow was faster because of fingered flow in the unsaturated part, and the mobile water fraction was smaller than in the fine material. Here, a rising water table led to an even smaller mobile water fraction and increased solute spreading because of diffusive interaction with immobile water. We conclude that changes of the water table need to be considered to correctly simulate transport in the subsurface at the transition of the unsaturated–saturated zone. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling climate change and biophysical impacts of crop production in the Austrian Marchfeld Region

Climate change affects major biophysical processes in agricultural crop production (e.g. evaporation of plants and soils, nutrient cycles, and growth of plants). This analysis aims to assess some of these effects by simulating regional climate projections that are integrated in the biophysical process model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate). Statistical climate models have been developed for six weather parameters based on daily weather records of a weather station in the Austrian Marchfeld region from 1975 to 2006. These models have been used to estimate daily weather parameters for the period 2007–2038. The resulting projections have been compared to climate scenarios provided from the TYNDALL Centre for Climate Change Research, which are based on General Circulation Models (GCMs). The comparison indicates some differences, namely a smaller temperature increase and a higher precipitation amount in the TYNDALL data. Both climate datasets have been used to simulate impacts of climate change on crop yields, topsoil organic carbon content, and nitrate leaching with EPIC and thus to perform a sensitivity analysis of EPIC. Yield impacts have been assessed for four simulated crops, i.e. 6.2?t/ha for winter wheat for statistical climate projections compared to 5.7?t/ha for TYNDALL scenarios, 10.6?t/ha for corn compared to 10.5?t/ha, 3.9?t/ha for sunflower compared to 3.7?t/ha, and 4.5?t/ha for spring barley compared to 4.3?t/ha—all values as an average over the period 2007–2038. Smaller differences have been simulated for topsoil organic carbon content i.e. 55.1?t/ha for the statistical climate projections compared to 55.3?t/ha for the TYNDALL scenarios and nitrate leaching i.e. 7.1?kg/ha compared to 11.1?kg/ha. All crop yields as well as topsoil organic carbon content and nitrate leaching show highest sensitivity to temperature and solar radiation.     

Validation of official erosion modelling based on high‐resolution radar rain data by aerial photo erosion classification

The universal soil loss equation (USLE) is the most frequently applied erosion prediction model and it is also implemented as an official decision‐making instrument for agricultural regulations. The USLE itself has been already validated using different approaches. Additional errors, however, arise from input data and interpolation procedures that become necessary for field‐specific predictions on a national scale for administrative purposes. In this study, predicted event soil loss using the official prediction system in Bavaria (Germany) was validated by comparison with aerial photo erosion classifications of 8100 fields. Values for the USLE factors were mainly taken from the official Bavarian high‐resolution (5 × 5 m²) erosion cadastre. As series of erosion events were examined, the cover and management factor was replaced by the soil loss ratio. The event erosivity factor was calculated from high‐resolution (1 × 1 km², 5 min), rain gauge‐adjusted radar rain data (RADOLAN). Aerial photo erosion interpretation worked sufficiently well and average erosion predictions and visual classifications correlated closely. This was also true for data broken down to individual factors and different crops. There was no reason to assume a general invalidity of the USLE and the official parametrization procedures. Event predictions mainly suffered from errors in the assumed crop stage period and tillage practices, which do not reflect interannual and farm‐specific variation. In addition, the resolution of radar data (1 km²) did not seem to be sufficient to predict short‐term erosion on individual fields given the strong spatial gradients within individual rains. The quality of the input data clearly determined prediction quality. Differences between USLE predictions and observations are most likely caused by parametrization weaknesses but not by a failure of the model itself. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.