Statistical analysis of time-dependent earthquake occurrence and its impact on hazard in the low seismicity region Lower Rhine Embayment

The time-dependence of earthquake occurrence is mostly ignored in standard seismic hazard assessment even though earthquake clustering is well known. In this work, we attempt to quantify the impact of more realistic dynamics on the seismic hazard estimations. We include the time and space dependences between earthquakes into the hazard analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. Our target region is the Lower Rhine Embayment, a low seismicity area in Germany. Including aftershock sequences by using the epidemic type aftershock-sequence (ETAS) model, we find that on average the hypothesis of uncorrelated random earthquake activity underestimates the hazard by 5–10 per cent. Furthermore, we show that aftershock activity of past large earthquakes can locally increase the hazard even centuries later. We also analyse the impact of the so-called long-term behaviour, assuming a quasi-periodic occurrence of main events on a major fault in that region. We found that a significant impact on hazard is only expected for the special case of a very regular recurrence of the main shocks.     

A review of the metallogeny and tectonics of the Lachlan Orogen

Future mineral exploration within eastern Australia will be enhanced by resolving the tectonic evolution of the Lachlan Orogen to establish the spatial and temporal terrane distribution of the various mineral deposits. The Lachlan Orogen, from north-eastern Tasmania through to central and eastern New South Wales, is host to a number of major mineral deposit styles—including orogenic gold (e.g. Stawell, Ballarat, Bendigo), volcanic-hosted massive sulphide (e.g. Woodlawn, Currawong), sediment-hosted Cu–Au (e.g. Cobar Basin deposits), porphyry Au–Cu (e.g. Cadia, Parkes, Cowal) and granite-related Sn (e.g. Ardlethan, Beechworth). Each of these mineral deposit styles is a sensitive and diagnostic indicator of the prevalent tectonic environment during their formation. In this review, we briefly summarise the deposit- to large-scale factors that define the diverse metallogenic evolution of the Lachlan Orogen. This overview is intended to “set the scene” for subsequent specialist papers published in this thematic issue on the metallogeny and tectonics of the Lachlan Orogen in south-east Australia.     

Comment on “Is there a paleolimnological explanation for ‘walking on water’ in the Sea of Galilee?”

In a recent paper, Nof et al. (J Paleolimnol 35:417–439, 2006) suggest a physical mechanism which could account for the formation of ice on Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee) in northern Israel. Based on the sea surface temperature record of sediment cores from the Mediterranean Sea the authors argue that centennial-scale cold events had the potential to trigger local ‘springs ice’ formation on the lake in the past. Here, we demonstrate that a closer inspection of the paleoceanographic record in combination with correlation and regression analyses of meteorological data provides no evidence for such cold events in the lake region during the last 10,000 years. Thus, the formation of ‘springs ice’ on Lake Kinneret was unlikely at least since the beginning of the Neolithic.     

Developing a high-resolution climatology for the Central California coastal region

This work presents a procedure for developing a high-resolution, regional climatology estimate, named RClimo, off the coast of central California. This high-resolution climatology may provide an alternative way to initialize numerical nowcast/forecast exercises in coastal regions. The methodology includes two primary steps: (1) averaging available data on a high-resolution grid and (2) objective interpolating the resulting average profiles onto a regular grid. The first step involves the computation of averages over density layers in the vertical and allowing for data gaps in the horizontal if data are unavailable at a high resolution. The OA in the second step uses anisotropic correlation length scales derived from the data themselves and an averaging radius to preserve the scales and variability of the synoptic fields.     

Deriving rules from activity diary data: A learning algorithm and results of computer experiments

 Activity-based models consider travel as a derived demand from the activities households need to conduct in space and time. Over the last 15 years, computational or rule-based models of activity scheduling have gained increasing interest in time-geography and transportation research. This paper argues that a lack of techniques for deriving rules from empirical data hinders the further development of rule-based systems in this area. To overcome this problem, this paper develops and tests an algorithm for inductively deriving rules from activity-diary data. The decision table formalism is used to exhaustively represent the theoretically possible decision rules that individuals may use in sequencing a given set of activities. Actual activity patterns of individuals are supplied to the system as examples. In an incremental learning process, the system progressively improves on the selection of rules used for reproducing the examples. Computer experiments based on simulated data are performed to fine-tune rule selection and rule value update functions. The results suggest that the system is effective and fairly robust for parameter settings. It is concluded, therefore, that the proposed approach opens up possibilities to derive empirically tested rule-based models of activity scheduling. Follow-up research will be concerned with testing the system on empirical data. Received: 31 January 2001 / Accepted: 13 September 2001     

Spatial Response to Major Volcanic Events in or about AD 536, 934 and 1258: Frost Rings and Other Dendrochronological Evidence from Mongolia and Northern Siberia: Comment on R. B. Stothers, ‘Volcanic Dry Fogs, Climate Cooling, and Plague Pandemics in Europe and the Middle East’ (Climatic Change, 42, 1999)

Hypothesized large-scale climatic extremes require verification from distantregions in order toconfirm the magnitude and timing of such events. Three of the most massivehypothesized volcanic events of the past two millennia, occurring in or aboutAD 536, 934 and1258, had profound climatic and demographic repercussions over much of Europe,the MiddleEast, and other areas, according to historical accounts recently described inStothers (1998, 1999,2000) as well as other research. Here we report on frost ring and otherdendrochronologicalevidence derived from a 1738-year tree-ring chronology from Mongolia andmillennial-scaletree-ring data from northern Siberia which demonstrate that these three eventsmay have alsoimpacted conditions in these distant regions.     

Eddy correlation measurements of methane flux in a northern peatland ecosystem

A pilot study to measure methane flux using eddy correlation sensors was conducted in a peatland ecosystem in north central Minnesota. A prototype tunable diode laser spectrometer system was employed to measure the fluctuations in methane concentration.The logarithmic cospectrum of methane concentration and vertical wind velocity fluctuations under moderately unstable conditions had a peak nearf = 0.10 (wheref is the nondimensional frequency) and was quite similar to the cospectra of water vapor and sensible heat. Daytime methane flux during the first two weeks of August ranged from 120 to 270 mg m^-2 day^-1. The temporal variation in methane fluxes was consistent with changes in peat temperature and water table elevation. Our results compared well with the range of values obtained in previous studies in Minnesota peatlands.These field observations demonstrate the utility of the micrometeorological eddy correlation technique for measuring surface fluxes of methane. The current state-of-the-art in tunable diode laser spectroscopy makes this approach practical for use in key ecosystems.Published as Paper No. 9556, Journal Series, Nebraska Agricultural Research Division.