Impacts of tectonic and orbital forcing on East African climate: a comparison based on global climate model simulations

A global atmosphere–ocean model has been forced with topographic and orbital scenarios in order to evaluate the relative role of both factors for the past climate of East Africa. Forcing the model with a significantly reduced topography in Eastern and Southern Africa leads to a distinct increase in moisture transport from the Indian Ocean into the eastern part of the continent and increased precipitation in Eastern Africa. Simulations with step-wise reduced height show that this climate change occurs continuously with the change in topography, i.e., an abrupt change of local climatic features with a critical height is not found. Simulations of the last interglacial (at 125,000 years before present, i.e., the Eemian interglacial) and the last glacial inception (at 115,000 years before present) are used as examples for the role of orbital-induced changes in insolation. Here, changes in meridional temperature gradients lead to modifications in moisture transport of similar order of magnitude, but with different spatial and seasonal structure. For the Eemian interglacial, a distinct increase in summer moisture transport from the Atlantic deep into the continent at around 20°N is simulated.     

Scattered Data Approximation on the Bisphere and Application to Texture Analysis

The paper deals with the approximation and optimal interpolation of functions defined on the bisphere \mathbb S²×\mathbb S²\mathbb {S}^{2}\times \mathbb {S}^{2} from scattered data. We demonstrate how the least square approximation to the function can be computed in a stable and efficient manner. The analysis of this problem is based on Marcinkiewicz–Zygmund inequalities for scattered data which we present here for the bisphere. The complementary problem of optimal interpolation is also solved by using well-localized kernels for our setting. Finally, we discuss the application of the developed methods to problems of texture analysis in material science.     

Thermal and shock history of Almahata Sitta meteorite inferred from structure refinement of pyroxene and Mössbauer spectroscopy of Fe-Ni metal

The crystal structures of orthopyroxene (En_86.3Fs_8.6Wo_5.1, space group Pbca) and pigeonite (En_81.7Fs_8.8Wo_9.5, space group P2₁/c) from the Almahata Sitta ureilite (fragment#051) have been refined to R1 indices of 3.10% and 2.53%, respectively, using single-crystal X-ray diffraction data. The unit formulas were calculated from electron microprobe analysis, and the occupancies at the M1 and M2 sites were refined for both pyroxenes from the single-crystal diffraction data. The results indicate a rather disordered intracrystalline Fe²⁺-Mg cation distribution over the M1 and M2 sites, with a closure temperature of 726(±55)°C for orthopyroxene and 704(±110)°C for pigeonite, suggesting fast cooling of these pyroxenes. The Mössbauer spectrum of the Fe-Ni metal particles of Almahata Sitta ureilite (fragment#051) is dominated by two overlapping magnetic sextets that are assigned to Fe atoms in Si-bearing kamacite, and arise from two different nearest-neighbor configurations of Fe* (=Fe+Ni) and Si atoms in the bcc structure of kamacite; (8F*, 0Si) and (7Fe*, 1Si). In addition, the spectrum shows weak absorption peaks that are attributed to the presence of small amounts of cohenite [(Fe,Ni)₃C], schreibersite [(Fe,Ni)₃P], and an Fe-oxide/hydroxide phase. The fast cooling of pyroxene to the closure temperature (after equilibration at ~1200°C) and the incorporation of Si in kamacite can be interpreted as due to a shock event that took place on the meteorite parent body, consistent with the proposed formation history of ureilites parent body where a fast cooling has occurred at a later stage of its formation.     

Comparing seven candidate mission configurations for temporal gravity field retrieval through full-scale numerical simulation

The goal of this contribution is to focus on improving the quality of gravity field models in the form of spherical harmonic representation via alternative configuration scenarios applied in future gravimetric satellite missions. We performed full-scale simulations of various mission scenarios within the frame work of the German joint research project “Concepts for future gravity field satellite missions” as part of the Geotechnologies Program, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research and the German Research Foundation. In contrast to most previous simulation studies including our own previous work, we extended the simulated time span from one to three consecutive months to improve the robustness of the assessed performance. New is that we performed simulations for seven dedicated satellite configurations in addition to the GRACE scenario, serving as a reference baseline. These scenarios include a “GRACE Follow-on” mission (with some modifications to the currently implemented GRACE-FO mission), and an in-line “Bender” mission, in addition to five mission scenarios that include additional cross-track and radial information. Our results clearly confirm the benefit of radial and cross-track measurement information compared to the GRACE along-track observable: the gravity fields recovered from the related alternative mission scenarios are superior in terms of error level and error isotropy. In fact, one of our main findings is that although the noise levels achievable with the particular configurations do vary between the simulated months, their order of performance remains the same. Our findings show also that the advanced pendulums provide the best performance of the investigated single formations, however an accuracy reduced by about 2–4 times in the important long-wavelength part of the spectrum (for spherical harmonic degrees ${<}50$ ), compared to the Bender mission, can be observed. Concerning state-of-the-art mission constraints, in particular the severe restriction of heterodyne lasers on maximum range-rates, only the moderate Pendulum and the Bender-mission are beneficial options, of course in addition to GRACE and GRACE-FO. Furthermore, a Bender-type constellation would result in the most accurate gravity field solution by a factor of about 12 at long wavelengths (up to degree/order 40) and by a factor of about 200 at short wavelengths (up to degree/order 120) compared to the present GRACE solution. Finally, we suggest the Pendulum and the Bender missions as candidate mission configurations depending on the available budget and technological progress.     

Storm track response to ocean fronts in a global high-resolution climate model

Synoptic atmospheric eddies are affected by lower tropospheric air-temperature gradients and by turbulent heat fluxes from the surface. In this study we examine how ocean fronts affect these quantities and hence the storm tracks. We focus on two midlatitude regions where ocean fronts lie close to the storm tracks: the north-west Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. An atmospheric climate model of reasonably high resolution (~50 km) is applied in a climate-length (60 year) simulation in order to obtain stable statistics. Simulations with frontal structure in the sea surface temperature (SST) in one of the regions are compared against simulations with globally smoothed SST. We show that in both regions the ocean fronts have a strong influence on the transient eddy heat and moisture fluxes, not just in the boundary layer, but also in the free troposphere. Local differences in these quantities between the simulations reach 20–40 % of the maximum values in the simulation with smoothed SST. Averaged over the entire region of the storm track over the ocean the corresponding differences are 10–20 %. The effect on the transient eddy meridional wind variance is strong in the boundary layer but relatively weak above that. The potential mechanisms by which the ocean fronts influence the storm tracks are discussed, and our results are compared against previous studies with regional models, Aquaplanet models, and coarse resolution coupled models.     

Present and projected degree days in China from observation,reanalysis and simulations

Degree days are usually defined as the accumulated daily mean temperature varying with the base temperature, and are one of the most important indicators of climate changes. In this study, the present-day and projected changes of four degree days indices from daily mean surface air temperature output simulated by Max Planck Institute, Earth Systems Model of low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) model are evaluated with the high resolution gridded-observation dataset and two modern reanalyses in China. During 1979–2005, the heating degree days (HDD) and the numbers of HDD (NHDD) have decreased for observation, reanalyses (ERA-Interim and NCEP/NCAR) and model simulations (historical and decadal experiments), consistent with the increasing cooling degree days (CDD) and the numbers of CDD (NCDD). These changes reflect the general warming in China during the past decades. In most cases, ERA-Interim is closer to observation than NCEP/NCAR and model simulations. There are discrepancies between observation, reanalyses and model simulations in the spatial patterns and regional means. The decadal hindcast/forecast simulation performance of MPI-ESM-LR produce warmer than the observed mean temperature in China during the entire period, and the hindcasts forecast a trend lower than the observed. Under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios, HDD and NHDD show significant decreases, and CDD and NCDD consistently increase during 2006–2100 under RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6, especially before the mid-21 century. More pronounced changes occur under RCP8.5, which is associated with a high rate of radiative forcing. The 20th century runs reflect the sensitivity to the initial conditions, and the uncertainties in terms of the inter-ensemble are small, whereas the long-term trend is well represented with no differences among ensembles.     

Observing Entrainment Processes Using a Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicle: A Feasibility Study

Measurement flights with the meteorological mini aerial vehicle (M $^2$ AV) were performed in spring 2011 to assess the capability of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to measure the structure of the transition zone between the convective boundary layer and the stably stratified free atmosphere. The campaign took place at the Meteorological Observatory Lindenberg/Richard-Aßmann-Observatory of the German Meteorological Service. Besides the M $^2$ AV flights, observations were made from a 12-m and a 99-m tower, a sodar, two ceilometers, radiosondes, and a tethered balloon with sensor packages at six different levels. M $^2$ AV measurements were intentionally combined with remote sensing systems. The height range of the entrainment zone as well as its diurnal cycle were provided by the remote sensing instruments. The UAV provided the high-resolution in situ data of temperature and wind for the study of turbulent processes. It is shown that the M $^2$ AV is able to maintain constant altitude with very small deviations—a pre-requisite to study processes inside the often quite thin entrainment zone and that M $^2$ AV high-resolution wind and temperature measurements allow for very detailed studies of the fine structure of the atmosphere and thus for the identification of quite local and/or short-duration processes such as overshooting thermals or downward intrusions of warm air. Spatial series measured by the M $^2$ AV during horizontal flights show turbulent exchange of heat in short turbulent bursts at heights close to and within the entrainment zone. Scaled vertical profiles of vertical velocity, potential temperature variance, and sensible heat flux confirm the general shape found by previous measurements and numerical studies.     

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.     

Overstepping the garnet isograd: a comparison of QuiG barometry and thermodynamic modeling

The consequences of overstepping the garnet isograd reaction have been investigated by comparing the composition of garnet formed at overstepped P–T conditions (the overstep or “OS” model) with the P–T conditions that would be inferred by assuming garnet nucleated in equilibrium with the matrix assemblage at the isograd (the equilibrium or “EQ” model). The garnet nucleus composition formed at overstepped conditions is calculated as the composition that produces the maximum decrease in Gibbs free energy from the equilibrated, garnet-absent, matrix assemblage for the bulk composition under study. Isopleths were then calculated for this garnet nucleus composition assuming equilibrium with the matrix assemblage (the EQ model). Comparison of the actual P–T conditions of nucleation (the OS model) with those inferred from the EQ model reveals considerable discrepancy between the two. In general, the inferred garnet nucleation P–T conditions (the EQ model) are at a lower temperature and higher or lower pressure (depending on the coexisting calcic phase(s)) than the actual (OS model) nucleation conditions. Moreover, the degree of discrepancy increases with the degree of overstepping. Independent estimates of the pressure of nucleation of garnet were made using the Raman shift of quartz inclusions in garnet (quartz-in-garnet or QuiG barometry). To test the validity of this method, an experimental synthesis of garnet containing quartz inclusions was made at 800 °C, 20 kbar, and the measured Raman shift reproduced the synthesis conditions to within 120 bars. Raman band shifts from three natural samples were then used to calculate an isochore along which garnet was presumed to have nucleated. Model calculations were made at several temperatures along this isochore (the OS model), and these P–T conditions were compared to those computed assuming equilibrium nucleation (the EQ model) to estimate the degree of overstepping displayed by these samples. A sample from the garnet isograd in eastern Vermont is consistent with overstepping of around 10 degrees and 0.6 kbar (affinities of around 2 kJ/mole garnet). A sample from the staurolite–kyanite zone in the same terrane requires overstepping of around 50 °C and 2–5 kbar (affinities of around 10–18 kJ/mole garnet). A similar amount of overstepping was inferred for a blueschist sample from Sifnos, Greece. These results indicate that overstepping of garnet nucleation reactions may be common and pronounced in regionally metamorphosed terranes, and that the P–T conditions and paths inferred from garnet zoning studies may be egregiously in error.