Statistical analysis of time-dependent earthquake occurrence and its impact on hazard in the low seismicity region Lower Rhine Embayment

The time-dependence of earthquake occurrence is mostly ignored in standard seismic hazard assessment even though earthquake clustering is well known. In this work, we attempt to quantify the impact of more realistic dynamics on the seismic hazard estimations. We include the time and space dependences between earthquakes into the hazard analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. Our target region is the Lower Rhine Embayment, a low seismicity area in Germany. Including aftershock sequences by using the epidemic type aftershock-sequence (ETAS) model, we find that on average the hypothesis of uncorrelated random earthquake activity underestimates the hazard by 5–10 per cent. Furthermore, we show that aftershock activity of past large earthquakes can locally increase the hazard even centuries later. We also analyse the impact of the so-called long-term behaviour, assuming a quasi-periodic occurrence of main events on a major fault in that region. We found that a significant impact on hazard is only expected for the special case of a very regular recurrence of the main shocks.     

Composition and exhalation flux of gases from mud volcanoes in Taiwan

Many mud volcanoes are distributed along the tectonic sutures in southern Taiwan and can be divided into five zones based on their relative positions in different tectonic domains. Most active mud volcanoes are exhaling methane-dominated gases. Nevertheless, some gases show unusual carbon dioxide-dominated and/or nitrogen-excess compositions. This implies that there are multiple sources for the gas compositions of mud volcanoes in Taiwan.For better understanding the total amount of exhalation gases and its flux, the gas flow and compositions were continuously measured in the interval of two minutes at Chung-lun (CL) bubbling mud pool for a few months. The major compositions of gases exhaling from this site were 75~90% of CO₂ and 5~12% of CH₄. The amount of gases exhaling from the mud pool can be estimated to be about 1.4 ton/year for CH₄ and 28 ton/year for CO₂, respectively. The preliminary results of exhaling gas flux from the major vents of representative active mud volcanoes, yielded an estimated total CH₄ output of the mud volcanoes in Taiwan of ca. 29 ton/year during quiescent period.     

Persistent halogenated compounds in black guillemots (Cepphus grylle) from Greenland--levels, compound patterns and spatial trends

Twenty-seven black guillemot eggs and 39 livers were analysed for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), chlorinated pesticides including chlordane-related compounds and toxaphene, and polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDEs). The samples were collected at Qeqertarsuaq (Godhavn, West Greenland) and Ittoqqortoormiit (Scoresbysund, East Greenland). The concentrations of halogenated organic compounds in samples from East Greenland were somewhat higher than the corresponding concentrations from West Greenland. Differences in compound patterns were found between West and East Greenland, with higher percentages of the heavier PCB molecules, p,p(')-DDE and alpha-HCH in the samples from Ittoqqortoormiit. Similarly, different levels and different compositions were observed for eggs and livers. The eggs had generally higher concentrations of all compounds as well as higher percentages of CHB-50, CHB-62 and alpha-HCH than liver samples from the same area. Dividing the liver samples into age groups revealed increasing concentrations with age.     

Present and projected degree days in China from observation,reanalysis and simulations

Degree days are usually defined as the accumulated daily mean temperature varying with the base temperature, and are one of the most important indicators of climate changes. In this study, the present-day and projected changes of four degree days indices from daily mean surface air temperature output simulated by Max Planck Institute, Earth Systems Model of low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) model are evaluated with the high resolution gridded-observation dataset and two modern reanalyses in China. During 1979–2005, the heating degree days (HDD) and the numbers of HDD (NHDD) have decreased for observation, reanalyses (ERA-Interim and NCEP/NCAR) and model simulations (historical and decadal experiments), consistent with the increasing cooling degree days (CDD) and the numbers of CDD (NCDD). These changes reflect the general warming in China during the past decades. In most cases, ERA-Interim is closer to observation than NCEP/NCAR and model simulations. There are discrepancies between observation, reanalyses and model simulations in the spatial patterns and regional means. The decadal hindcast/forecast simulation performance of MPI-ESM-LR produce warmer than the observed mean temperature in China during the entire period, and the hindcasts forecast a trend lower than the observed. Under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios, HDD and NHDD show significant decreases, and CDD and NCDD consistently increase during 2006–2100 under RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6, especially before the mid-21 century. More pronounced changes occur under RCP8.5, which is associated with a high rate of radiative forcing. The 20th century runs reflect the sensitivity to the initial conditions, and the uncertainties in terms of the inter-ensemble are small, whereas the long-term trend is well represented with no differences among ensembles.     

Meadow fragmentation and reproductive output of the SE Asian seagrass Enhalus acoroides

Flower and fruit production of the abundant, tall, long-lived, dioecious, surface-pollinating seagrass species Enhalus acoroides (L.) Royle were estimated at seven sites in the reef flats off Bolinao (NW Luzon, The Philippines) featuring different fragmentation of the seagrass meadows. Fragmentation of the seagrass meadow was quantified as cover of E. acoroides and all seagrass species present in 20×20 m plots. E. acoroides and overall seagrass cover were correlated positively. The proportion of female flowers of E. acoroides that developed a fruit increased sharply as overall seagrass cover was around 50%. Apparent sex ratio bore no relationship with overall seagrass cover. This threshold-type of relationship suggests that fragmentation of seagrass meadows can have a major effect on the reproductive output of this species. A possible mechanism underlying these results would be a non-linear increase of the efficiency of trapping the surface-dispersed pollen with increasing seagrass canopy density. This provides the first evidence based on real data that fragmentation can affect the population dynamics of seagrass species.     

The importance of fishing method, gear and origin: The Spanish hake market

Recently, how different attributes influence the price of fish has received increased attention. This is partly due to the perceived impact of different attributes on quality and price, but lately environmental concerns are also playing a part. In contrast to earlier studies that focus on the Ex-Vessel or retail level, this study investigates wholesale data, for hake in Spain. The wholesale data provide information on a wide range of origins as the hake market has increasingly become global. The empirical analysis is conducted by estimating a hedonic price function. The results indicate that while fishing gear and size are important attributes, the origin of the fish is in this case the clearly most important attribute in determining the price. The price more than doubles for fish from the most preferred source, Catalonia, relatively to the fish from the least preferred source, Namibia.     

Dissociation constants of protonated cysteine species in seawater media

The dissociation constants (pK₁, pK₂ and pK₃) for cysteine have been measured in seawater as a function of temperature (5 to 45 °C) and salinity (S = 5 to 35). The seawater values were lower than the values in NaCl at the same ionic strength. In an attempt to understand these differences, we have made measurements of the constants in Na–Mg–Cl solutions at 25 °C. The measured values have been compared to those calculated from the Pitzer ionic interaction model. The lower values of pK₃ in the Na–Mg–Cl solutions have been attributed to the formation of Mg²⁺ complexes with Cys²⁻ anions

Mg²⁺ + Cys²⁻ = MgCys

The stability constants have been fitted to

after corrections are made for the interaction of Mg²⁺ with H⁺.The pK₁ seawater measurements indicate that H₃Cys⁺ interacts with SO₄²⁻. The Pitzer parameters β⁰(H₃CysSO₄), β¹(H₃CysSO₄) and C(H₃CysSO₄) have been determined for this interaction. The formation of CaCys as well as MgCys are needed to account for the values of pK₂ and pK₃ in seawater.The consideration of the formation of MgCys and CaCys in seawater yields model calculated values of pK₁, pK₂ and pK₃ that agree with the measured values to within the experimental error of the measurements. This study shows that it is important to consider all of the ionic interactions in natural waters when examining the dissociation of organic acids.     

Deep-sea Fe-Mn Crusts from the Northeast Atlantic Ocean: Composition and Resource Considerations

Eighteen deep-sea ferromanganese crusts (Fe-Mn crusts) from 10 seamounts in the northeast Atlantic were studied. Samples were recovered from water depths of ～1,200 to ～4,600 m from seamounts near Madeira, the Canary and Azores islands, and one sample from the western Mediterranean Sea.

The mineralogical and chemical compositions of the samples indicate that the crusts are typical continental margin, hydrogenetic Fe-Mn crusts. The Fe-Mn crusts exhibit a Co + Cu + Ni maximum of 0.96 wt%. Platinum-group element contents analyzed for five samples showed Pt contents from 153 to 512 ppb.

The resource potential of Fe-Mn crusts within and adjacent to the Portuguese Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) is evaluated to be comparable to that of crusts in the central Pacific, indicating that these Atlantic deposits may be an important future resource.     

Uncertainty and asymmetric information: An overview

This paper provides an overview of the literature on fisheries economics related to uncertainty and asymmetric information. It is argued that uncertainty is relevant in connection with present and future stock sizes and prices, while asymmetric information is important for cost functions, catches, catch per unit of effort, and effort. The literature on uncertainty and asymmetric information can be seen as providing the basis of an argument for using taxes in fisheries management. It is, therefore, surprising that over 55 countries regulate their fisheries with individual quotas, while taxes are not used at all.