Finding the most appropriate precipitation probability distribution for stochastic weather generation and hydrological modelling in Nordic watersheds

Six precipitation probability distributions (exponential, Gamma, Weibull, skewed normal, mixed exponential and hybrid exponential/Pareto distributions) are evaluated on their ability to reproduce the statistics of the original observed time series. Each probability distribution is also indirectly assessed by looking at its ability to reproduce key hydrological variables after being used as inputs to a lumped hydrological model. Data from 24 weather stations and two watersheds (Chute‐du‐Diable and Yamaska watersheds) in the province of Quebec (Canada) were used for this assessment. Various indices or statistics, such as the mean, variance, frequency distribution and extreme values are used to quantify the performance in simulating the precipitation and discharge. Performance in reproducing key statistics of the precipitation time series is well correlated to the number of parameters of the distribution function, and the three‐parameter precipitation models outperform the other models, with the mixed exponential distribution being the best at simulating daily precipitation. The advantage of using more complex precipitation distributions is not as clear‐cut when the simulated time series are used to drive a hydrological model. Although the advantage of using functions with more parameters is not nearly as obvious, the mixed exponential distribution appears nonetheless as the best candidate for hydrological modelling. The implications of choosing a distribution function with respect to hydrological modelling and climate change impact studies are also discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison of methods for quantifying active layer dynamics and bedload discharge in armoured gravel‐bed rivers

Several methods were employed in the Ardennian rivers (Belgium) to determine the depth of the active layer mobilized during floods and to evaluate the bedload discharge associated with these events. The use of scour chains has shown that the depth of the active layer is systematically less than the b‐axis of the average particle size (D₅₀) of the elements which compose the surface layer of the riffles. This indicates that only a partial transport exists during low magnitude floods. The bedload discharge has been evaluated by combining data obtained using the scour chains technique and the distance covered by tracers. Quantities of sediment transported during frequent floods are relatively low (0·02 t km^–2) due to the armour layer which protects the subsurface material. These low values are also related to the fact that the distance calculated for mobilized bedload only applies to tracers fitted with PIT (passive integrated transponder)‐tags (diameter > 20 mm), whereas part of the bedload discharge is composed of sand and fine gravel transported over greater distances than the pebbles. The break‐up of the armour layer was observed only once, for a decennial discharge. During this event, the bedload discharge increased considerably (2 t km^–2). The use of sediment traps, data from dredging and a Helley–Smith sampler confirm the low bedload transport in Ardennian rivers in comparison to the bedload transport in other geomorphological contexts. This difference is explained by the presence of an armoured layer but also by the imbricated structures of flat bed elements which increase the resistance to the flow. Finally, the use of the old iron industry wastes allowed to quantify the thickness of the bed reworked over the past centuries. In the Lembrée River, the river‐bed contains slag elements up to a depth of about 50 cm, indicating that exceptional floods may rework the bed to a considerable depth. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

含水大陆下地壳的部分熔融：大别山C型埃达克岩成因探讨

       根据大陆下地壳的成分、含水基性岩体系部分熔融的基本原理和实验岩石学资料,本文对大陆下地壳的熔融机制展 开了讨论,并在此基础上对比实验熔体与大别山C 型埃达克岩的成分,进而探讨约束源岩成分、熔融的温压条件和部分熔 融程度。研究结果表明,大陆下地壳总体上是中- 基性（SiO2　50%~60% ）和含少量水的,在缺乏流体相条件下伴随含水 矿物脱水的部分熔融是下地壳产生含水长英质熔体和无水残留体的主要机制。角闪岩在中等压力下（1.0~1.2 GPa,相当于 35~40 km）理论上能够产生石榴石含量超过~20% 的熔融残余,从而使得与之平衡的长英质熔体具有低Y,高Sr/Y 和La/Yb 比值等埃达克岩特征。基于水活度模型和变质基性岩p -t 相图的估算显示,含有40%~60% 角闪石的源岩（含水0.8%~1.2%） 在~950 ℃能够得到最大为15%~20% 的熔体,该熔体分数满足熔体分离的要求。大别山C型埃达克岩主要为高钾钙碱性系 列（K2O 3.5%~5%）,与实验熔体成分的对比可知,其无法由低钾源岩在合理的部分熔融程度形成。根据钾在角闪岩部分熔 融过程过表现为强不相容元素的原理,利用合理假设的残余体组合得到的分配系数,估算K2O 含量为~1% 的源岩在熔融程 度为15%~20% 的情况下能够得到类似大别山C 型埃达克岩成分的熔体。     

Sulphur solubility in andesitic to basaltic melts: implications for Hekla volcano

The solubility of sulphur in sulphide-saturated, H₂O-bearing basaltic–andesitic and basaltic melts from Hekla volcano (Iceland) has been determined experimentally at 1,050°C, 300 and 200 MPa, and redox conditions with oxygen fugacity (logfO₂) between QFM−1.2 and QFM+1.1 (QFM is a quartz–fayalite–magnetite oxygen buffer) in the systems containing various amounts of S and H₂O. The S content of the H₂O-rich glasses saturated with pyrrhotite decreases from 2,500 ppm in basalt to 1,500 ppm in basaltic andesite at the investigated conditions. Furthermore, the reduction of water content in the melt at pyrrhotite saturation and fixed T, P and redox conditions leads to a decrease in S concentration from 2,500 to 1,400 ppm for basaltic experiments (for H₂O decrease from 7.8 to 1.4 wt%) and from 1,500 to 900 ppm (for H₂O decrease from 6.7 to 1.7 wt%) for basaltic andesitic experiments. Our experimental data, combined with silicate melt inclusion investigations and the available models on sulphide saturation in mafic magmas, indicate that the parental basaltic melts of Hekla were not saturated with respect to sulphide. During magmatic differentiation, the S content in the residual melts increased and might have reached sulphide saturation with 2,500 ppm dissolved S. With further magma crystallization, the S concentration in the melt was controlled by the sulphide saturation of the magma, decreasing from ~2,500 to 900 ppm S.     

Effects of strong network modifiers on Fe<Superscript>3+</Superscript>/Fe<Superscript>2+</Superscript> in silicate melts: an experimental study

The effect of CaO, Na₂O, and K₂O on ferric/ferrous ratio in model multicomponent silicate melts was investigated in the temperature range 1450–1550?°C at 1-atm total pressure in air. It is demonstrated that the addition of these network modifier cations results in an increase of Fe³⁺/Fe²⁺ ratio. The influence of network modifier cations on the ferric/ferrous ratio increases in the order Ca?<?Na?<?K. Some old controversial conceptions concerning the effect of potassium on Fe³⁺/Fe²⁺ ratio in simple model liquids are critically evaluated. An empirical equation is proposed to predict the ferric/ferrous ratio in SiO₂–TiO₂–Al₂O₃–FeO–Fe₂O₃–MgO–CaO–Na₂O–K₂O–P₂O₅ melts at air conditions.     

Magma storage conditions and differentiation of the mafic Lower Pollara volcanics,Salina Island,Aeolian Islands,Italy: implications for the formation conditions of shoshonites and potassic rocks

Crystallization experiments of basaltic andesite mafic endmember from the 24 ka Lower Pollara eruption (Salina, Aeolian Islands, Italy) were investigated at 200 MPa, 950–1100 °C, in the H₂O activity (aH₂O) range ~0.3 to 1, and at two ranges of oxygen fugacity (fO₂) between ~FMQ to FMQ+1 and ~FMQ+2 to FMQ+3.3 (log bars, FMQ is fayalite-magnetite-quartz). Comparison of the produced phase assemblages and phase compositions with the natural sample reveals that the storage conditions were ~1050 °C, ~2.8 wt% H₂O in the melt (aH₂O ~0.5), and relatively oxidizing (~FMQ+2.5). The composition of plagioclase in the groundmass indicates a period of cooling to ≤950 °C. The overall differentiation trends of the Salina volcanics can be explained by fractional crystallization close to H₂O saturated conditions (~5 wt% H₂O in the melt at 200 MPa) and most likely by accumulation of plagioclase, i.e., in basaltic andesites, and by various degree of mixing–mingling between the corresponding differentiates. The slightly elevated K₂O contents of the most mafic basaltic andesites that can be found in the lowermost unit of the Lower Pollara pyroclastics reveal earlier processes of moderately hydrous fractional crystallization at higher temperature (>~1050 °C). Fractional crystallization with decreasing influence of H₂O causes a moderate decrease of MgO and a significant increase of K₂O relative to SiO₂ in the residual liquids. It is exemplarily shown that the crystallization of SiO₂-rich phases at high temperature and low aH₂O of only moderately K₂O-rich calc-alkaline basalts can produce shoshonitic and high potassic rocks similar to those of Stromboli and Volcano. This suggests that the observed transition from calc-alkaline to shoshonitic and high potassic volcanism at the Aeolian Arc over time can be initiated by a general increase of magmatic temperatures and a decrease of aH₂O in response to the extensional tectonics and related increase of heat flow and declining influence of slab-derived fluids.     

利用卫星影像获得汶川地震之同震地表变形来探讨其断层几何模型(英文)

On 12th May 2008, a MW7.9 earthquake occurred on the Longmenshan fault in the mountains to the west of Sichuan Province, which shook many Asian cities and killed at least 69 000 people.     

Observations of atmospheric water vapor above the Tharsis volcanoes on Mars with the OMEGA/MEx imaging spectrometer

The OMEGA imaging spectrometer onboard the Mars Express spacecraft is particularly well suited to study in detail specific regions of Mars, thanks to its high spatial resolution and its high signal-to-noise ratio. We investigate the behavior of atmospheric water vapor over the four big volcanoes located on the Tharsis plateau (Olympus, Ascraeus, Pavonis and Arsia Mons) using the 2.6 μm band, which is the strongest and most sensitive H₂O band in the OMEGA spectral range. Our data sample covers the end of MY26 and the whole MY27, with gaps only in the late northern spring and in northern autumn. The most striking result of our retrievals is the increase of water vapor mixing ratio from the valley to the summit of volcanoes. Corresponding column density is often almost constant, despite a factor of ∼5 decrease in air mass from the bottom to the top. This peculiar water enrichment on the volcanoes is present in 75% of the orbits in our sample. The seasonal distribution of such enrichment hints at a seasonal dependence, with a minimum during the northern summer and a maximum around the northern spring equinox. The enrichment possibly also has a diurnal trend, being the orbits with a high degree of enrichment concentrated in the early morning. However, the season and the solar time of the observations, due to the motion of the spacecraft, are correlated, then the two dependences cannot be clearly disentangled. Several orbits exhibit also spatially localized enrichment structures, usually ring- or crescent-shaped. We retrieve also the height of the saturation level over the volcanoes. The results show a strong minimum around the aphelion season, due to the low temperatures, while it raises quickly before and after this period. The enrichment is possibly generated by the local circulation characteristic of the volcano region, which can transport upslope significant quantities of water vapor. The low altitude of the saturation level during the early summer can then hinder the transport of water during this season. The influence of the coupling between atmosphere and surface, due mainly to the action of the regoliths, can also contribute partially to the observed phenomenon.