An external–internal mode coupling for a 3D hydrodynamical model for applications at regional scale (MARS)

This paper presents a 3D model in sigma coordinates. Although the principles it is based on have been established for some time, some original aspects for this type of 3D mode splitting model are presented here. The model was designed to simulate flows in various coastal areas from the regional scale down to the inshore scale of small bays or estuaries where circulation is generally driven by a mix of processes. The processes to be modeled enable simplifications of the Navier–Stokes equations on the classic Boussinesq and hydrostatic hypotheses. These equations are transformed within a sigma framework to make free surface processing easier. The main point of our demonstration focuses on the original aspect of the coupling between barotropic and baroclinic modes especially designed for ADI. It explains how full consistency of the transport calculated within the 2D and 3D equation sets was obtained. Lastly, we describe the physical processes simulated on a realistic configuration at a regional scale in the Bay of Biscay.     

Vegetation response to obliquity and precession forcing during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition in Western Mediterranean region (ODP site 976)

The ODP leg 161 Site 976 (Alboran Sea) is a deep-sea section sampled at a water depth of 1108 m in the Western Mediterranean Sea. Pollen analysis provides a vegetation and climate record of the Mid Pleistocene Transition (MPT), roughly one million years ago. The age-model tied to biostratigraphic events was revised by aligning the pollen climate index (PCI) to Mediterranean (KC01b) and global (LR04) oxygen isotope records. The studied time slice spans the interval ～1.09 Ma (MIS 31) to ～0.90 Ma (MIS 23).Across this interval, past phytogeography of nowadays extinct taxa, which were rare, allows a successful application of the modern analogues technique (MAT) to quantitative climate reconstructions for the MPT. Five, long-term, obliquity-related vegetation successions (O1 to O5), and eight short-term, precession-related vegetation successions (P1 to P8) are observed within the studied interval. These vegetation successions, regardless of their duration, show the same pattern: the progressive replacement of temperate trees by mountainous taxa, and then by herbs and steppe maxima. Precession-related successions correspond, therefore, to as dramatic vegetation changes as those driven by obliquity, including a final steppe phase under deteriorated climate conditions.Wavelet analysis of the PCI record shows that the Western Mediterranean experienced a shift at 1.01 Ma from precession-dominated frequencies (1.05–1.01 Ma) to obliquity-dominated frequencies (1.01–0.9 Ma). There is, therefore, an apparent discrepancy between wavelet analysis results and vegetation dynamic analysis (which suggests that obliquity and precession are recorded throughout the entire studied interval). This discrepancy could result from the fact that the PCI record sums, somehow, similar vegetation changes (wet to dry) occurring at different periodicities. Such a complex vegetation dynamics is mathematically rendered through a single parameter (i.e. principal component), which does not successfully catch the subtle combinations of variability occurring at two close periodicities. Furthermore, the pollen-inferred Early Pleistocene vegetation dynamic (and climate) of the Western Mediterranean region does not show a decrease of the obliquity response relative to the precession response at the onset of the MPT.     

Post-eruptive lahars at Kali Putih following the 2010 eruption of Merapi volcano,Indonesia: occurrences and impacts

Following the 2010 VEI 4 eruption of Merapi volcano, more than 250 lahars were triggered during two rainy seasons from October 2010 to March 2012. This high number of post-eruption lahars mainly occurred in the Kali (valley) Putih watershed and was mostly associated with high-magnitude rainstorms. A lahar occurring on January 8, 2011, caused significant damage to homes in several communities, bridges, sabo dams, and agricultural crops. The aims of this contribution are to document the impacts of lahars on the Kali Putih watershed and specifically (1) to analyze the lahar frequency during the period of 1969–2012 on an inter-annual and intra-annual basis and to determine the link between the volume of tephra and the frequency of lahars; (2) to detail the lahar trajectory and channel evolution following the January 8th lahar; (3) to map the spatial distribution of the thickness and geomorphic effects of the lahar deposit; and (4) to determine the impacts of the lahar on the infrastructure (sabo dams and roads) and settlements in the distal area of the volcano. The Kali Putih watershed has experienced 62 lahars, which represent 22% of all lahars triggered on 17 rivers at Merapi between 2010 and 2012. The main geomorphic impacts are: (1) excessive sedimentation in valleys, settlements and agricultural areas; (2) undercutting of the river banks by as much as 50 m, accompanied by channel widening; and (3) abrupt changes in the river channel direction in the distal area (15–20 km downstream of the volcano). About 19 sabo dams were damaged, and 3 were totally destroyed. Over 307 houses were damaged, and the National Road Yogyakarta–Semarang was regularly cut (18 times during approximately 25 days). Although the sabo dams on Kali Putih were originally constructed to protect distal areas from lahar damage, they had little effect on the 2010–2012 rain-triggered lahars. The underlying design of those dams along this river is one of the main reasons for the major destruction in this sector of the volcano’s lower slope. The catch basin capacity of the sabo dam was only 1.75?×?10⁶ m³, whereas the total volume of the 2010–2011 lahars exceeded 5?×?10⁶ m³. In order to prepare for future lahars, the government has invested in significant mitigation measures, ranging from structural approaches (e.g., building new sabo dams and developing an early warning system) to non-structural approaches (e.g., contingency and preparedness planning and hazard education).

     

Investigating the Halogen Chemistry From High-Latitude Nighttime Stratospheric Measurements of OClO and NO2

Two cases of simultaneous nighttime measurements of NO₂ and OClO in the winter polar stratosphere are analyzed in order to test our present knowledge of halogen chemistry in the presence of high amount of NO₂ at low temperature. Comparisons with Lagrangian model calculations using several hypotheses are performed. First simulations, using the admitted constant rates of chemical reaction, strongly underestimate the measured OClO while the NO₂ profiles are correctly reproduced. If uncertainties in actinic fluxes calculations are taken into account, simulation results do not show a significant reduction of the underestimation. A better agreement can be achieved if the formation of unstable isomers of ClONO₂ and of BrONO₂ occurs in the cold conditions of the polar stratosphere. An approximate value of the branching ratios of the channels leading to ClONO₂ and ClOONO, and to BrONO₂ and BrOONO, necessary to reproduce both OClO and NO₂ is given and discussed.     

On the possibility of earth-type habitable planets around 47 UMa

We investigate whether Earth-type habitable planets can in principle exist in the planetary system of 47 UMa. The system of 47 UMa consists of two Jupiter-size planets beyond the outer edge of the stellar habitable zone, and thus resembles our own Solar System most closely compared to all exosolar planetary systems discovered so far. Our study of habitability deliberately follows an Earth-based view according to the concept of Franck and colleagues, which assumes the long-term possibility of photosynthetic biomass production under geodynamic conditions. Consequently, a broad variety of climatological, biogeochemical, and geodynamical processes involved in the generation of photosynthesis-driven life conditions is taken into account. The stellar luminosity and the age of the star/planet system are of fundamental importance for planetary habitability. Our study considers different types of planetary continental growth models and takes into account a careful assessment of the stellar parameters. In the event of successful formation and orbital stability, two subjects of intense research, we find that Earth-type habitable planets around 47 UMa are in principle possible! The likelihood of those planets is increased if assumed that 47 UMa is relatively young (?6 Gyr) and has a relatively small stellar luminosity as permitted by the observational range of those parameters.     

Volcanic edifice stability during cryptodome intrusion

Limit equilibrium analyses were applied to the 1980 Mount St. Helens and 1956 Bezymianny failures in order to examine the influence on stability of structural deformation produced by cryptodome emplacement. Weakening structures associated with the cryptodome include outward-dipping normal faults bounding a summit graben and a flat shear zone at the base of the bulged flank generated by lateral push of the magma. Together with the head of the magmatic body itself, these structures serve directly to localize failure along a critical surface with low stability deep within the interior of the edifice. This critical surface, with the safety coefficient reduced by 25-30%, is then very sensitive to stability condition variation, in particular to the pore-pressure ratio (r_u) and seismicity coefficient (n). For r_u=0.3, or n=0.2, the deep surface suffers catastrophic failure, removing a large volume of the edifice flank. In the case of Mount St. Helens, failure occurred within a material with angle of friction ~40°, cohesion in the range 10⁵-10⁶ Pa, and probably significant water pore pressure. On 18 May 1980, detachment of slide block I occurred along a newly formed rupture surface passing through the crest of the bulge. Although sliding of block I may have been helped by the basal shear zone, significant pore pressure and a triggering earthquake were required (r_u=0.3 and n=0.2). Detachment of the second block was guided by the summit normal fault, the front of the cryptodome, and the basal shear zone. This occurred along a deep critical surface, which was on the verge of failure even before the 18 May 1980 earthquake. The stability of equivalent surfaces at Bezymianny Volcano appears significantly higher. Thus, although magma had already reached the surface, weaker materials, or higher pore pressure and/or seismic conditions were probably required to reach the rupture threshold. From our analysis, we find that deep-seated sector collapses formed by removing the edifice summit cannot generally result from a single slide. Cryptodome-induced deformation does, however, provide a deep potential slip surface. As previously thought, it may assist deep-seated sector collapse because it favors multiple retrogressive slides. This leads to explosive depressurization of the magmatic and hydrothermal systems, which undermines the edifice summit and produces secondary collapses and explosive blasts.     

Global Martian surface structure and planetary evolution

A model is outlined shortly that explains the Martian surface asymmetry on the basis of interior processes.     

Physical model experiments for sediment supply to the old Rhine through induced bank erosion

A mobile-bed, undistorted physical model （1：40） has been used to investigate different sediment supply strategies to the Old Rhine through bank protection removal and modifications of groyne dimensions and configuration, which cause bank erosion. This trained channel was previously the main bed of the upper Rhine downstream of Basel （Switzerland）, but it has an artificially low flow regime since the construction of the Grand Canal d＇Alsace, a navigation canal, and a flow control dam at Kembs （France）. Training works and subsequent channel incision have also greatly reduced sediment transport rates and created a heavily armoured bed. The modelled pilot site has a groyne field on the left bank. Results show that the currently existing groynes at the site are not effective in creating high bank-side velocities conducive to bank erosion, even for flow rates significantly higher than the mean annual flow rate. The river bank has also proved to be more resistant than previously thought, allowing long stretches of bank protection to be safely removed. The physical model testing process has produced a new configuration for the groyne field, where two higher, larger island groynes are placed further apart than the three existing attached groynes. This innovative approach has proved effective, causing bank erosion for flow rates below the mean annual flow rate, with consistent erosion being observed. It has also been found that such a configuration does not pose a hazard for the Grand Canal d＇Alsace, which is situated next to the Old Rhine, through excessive bank erosion during high flow events.     

Socio-economic drivers and indicators for artisanal coastal fisheries in Pacific island countries and territories and their use for fisheries management strategies

This is the first regional study of artisanal fisheries in Pacific Island countries and territories that demonstrated that the future of the region's artisanal fishery sector and the livelihood of coastal communities will be highly dependent on alternative subsistence and income sources, which are necessary to reduce fishing pressure to a sustainable level to maintain ecosystem services and food security. The overall objective of this study was to identify socio-economic indicators and drivers to improve the understanding of the dynamics between socio-economic conditions and current exploitation levels of finfish and invertebrates of coastal communities in 17 Pacific Island countries and territories. We showed that exploitation rates and thus possible overexploitation are not solely the consequence of a simple demographic growth process but are in fact a result of the choices people have. Our results confirmed a close relationship between resource exploitation rates and economic development at the national level and the availability of alternative income opportunities at the community level. Multivariate analysis results suggest that communities in countries with somewhat unfavourable conditions and limited access to alternatives and fishing households in communities with overall favourable economic conditions are at highest vulnerability as they have the highest dependence on coastal fisheries resources. Alternative economic opportunities at the national scale and availability of alternative income at the community level vary significantly between cultural groups. Based on our results, the development of management strategies with realistic expectations of ensuring livelihood of coastal communities and sustainable resource use in Pacific Island countries and territories requires a hierarchical and integral approach. Major drivers identified at the regional, cultural and local levels should be used to identify priorities, to assess overall advantages and limitations at the different levels as well as the vulnerability of communities targeted, and to develop strategies accordingly.     

It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.