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101.
Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Doug M. Smith Adam A. Scaife George J. Boer Mihaela Caian Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes Virginie Guemas Ed Hawkins Wilco Hazeleger Leon Hermanson Chun Kit Ho Masayoshi Ishii Viatcheslav Kharin Masahide Kimoto Ben Kirtman Judith Lean Daniela Matei William J. Merryfield Wolfgang A. Müller Holger Pohlmann Anthony Rosati Bert Wouters Klaus Wyser 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):2875-2888
We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change. 相似文献
102.
Valentina Jara Francisco J. Meza Tania Zaviezo Rodrigo Chorbadjian 《Climatic change》2013,117(1-2):305-317
Maconellicoccus hirsutus (Green) (Hemiptera:Pseudoccidae) is an important pest in many countries being responsible for considerable economic loses. Although it is not currently present in Chile, the chance that it could be accidentally introduced rises with the list of infested countries increasing over the last years. In addition, climate change projections indicate that a larger region would fit as potential habitat for this pest, allowing it to persist over time and colonize a larger proportion of the Chilean territory. In this study the geographic distribution and the number of generations this mealybug would develop in Chile were determined, under current temperatures and under two projected climatic scenarios. Cumulative degree days were calculated for current and future scenarios using a lower temperature threshold of 14.5 °C, with 624.5 degree-days as the thermal requirement for the species to complete one generation. The results show that under current climate conditions M. hirsutus could develop up to three generations in the north of the country (i.e. 18° South) and one generation in the region near 37° South. Under future scenarios’ conditions the pest could develop up to five generations in the north, and one generation around the 42° South. Present climate conditions in Chile would allow the establishment of the pink hibiscus mealybug, if the pest enters the country. Climate change conditions would allow the potentially invaded area to expand south, and would promote the development of more generations per year of the mealybug in the studied territory. 相似文献
103.
Xavier Rodó Mercedes Pascual Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes Alexander Gershunov Dáithí A. Stone Filippo Giorgi Peter J. Hudson James Kinter Miquel-Àngel Rodríguez-Arias Nils Ch. Stenseth David Alonso Javier García-Serrano Andrew P. Dobson 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):625-640
The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed. 相似文献
104.
F. Arévalo P. Cifuentes Samuel Lepe Francisco Peña 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2014,352(2):899-907
In a flat Friedmann–Lemaitre–Robertson–Walker background, a scheme of dark matter–dark energy interaction is studied considering a holographic Ricci-like model for the dark energy. Without giving a priori some specific model for the interaction function, we show that this function can experience a change of sign during the cosmic evolution. The parameters involved in the holographic model are adjusted with Supernova data and we obtained results compatible with the observable universe. 相似文献
105.
Lúcia Carvalho Coelho Antonio Claudio Soares Nelson Francisco F. Ebecken Jos Luis Drummond Alves Luiz Landau 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2006,30(14):1477-1500
High porosity and low permeability limestone has presented pore collapse. As fluid is withdrawn from these reservoirs, the effective stresses acting on the rock increase. If the strength of the rock is overcome, pore collapse may occur, leading to irreversible compaction of porous media with permeability and porosity reduction. It impacts on fluid withdrawal. Most of reservoirs have been discovered in weak formations, which are susceptible to this phenomenon. This work presents a study on the mechanical behaviour of a porous limestone from a reservoir located in Campos Basin, offshore Brazil. An experimental program was undergone in order to define its elastic plastic behaviour. The tests reproduced the loading path conditions expected in a reservoir under production. Parameters of the cap model were fitted to these tests and numerical simulations were run. The numerical simulations presented a good agreement with the experimental tests. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
106.
D. W.Kurtz S. D.Kawaler R. L.Riddle M. D.Reed † M. S.Cunha M.Wood N.Silvestri T. K.Watson N.Dolez P.Moskalik S.Zola E.Pallier J. A.Guzik T. S.Metcalfe A. S.Mukadam R. E.Nather D. E.Winget D. J.Sullivan T.Sullivan K.Sekiguchi X.Jiang R.Shobbrook B. N.Ashoka S.Seetha S.Joshi D.O'Donoghue G.Handler M.Mueller J. M.Gonzalez Perez J.-E.Solheim F.Johannessen A.Ulla S. O.Kepler A.Kanaan A.da Costa L.Fraga O.Giovannini J. M.Matthews 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2002,330(3):57-61
HR 1217 is a prototypical rapidly oscillating Ap star that has presented a test to the theory of non-radial stellar pulsation. Prior observations showed a clear pattern of five modes with alternating frequency spacings of 33.3 and 34.6 μHz, with a sixth mode at a problematic spacing of 50.0 μHz (which equals 1.5×33.3 μHz) to the high-frequency side. Asymptotic pulsation theory allowed for a frequency spacing of 34 μHz, but Hipparcos observations rule out such a spacing. Theoretical calculations of magnetoacoustic modes in Ap stars by Cunha predicted that there should be a previously undetected mode 34 μHz higher than the main group, with a smaller spacing between it and the highest one. In this Letter, we present preliminary results from a multisite photometric campaign on the rapidly oscillating Ap star HR 1217 using the 'Whole Earth Telescope'. While a complete analysis of the data will appear in a later paper, one outstanding result from this run is the discovery of a newly detected frequency in the pulsation spectrum of this star, at the frequency predicted by Cunha. 相似文献
107.
108.
Josep Maria Trigo-Rodriguez Jeremie Vaubaillon José Luís Ortiz Alberto Castro-Tirado Jordi Llorca Esko Lyytinen Martin Jelínek Antonio de Ugarte Postigo Pablo Santos Sanz Francisco J. Aceituno Castro Albert Sánchez Caso Antonio Bernal González Juan Pastor Erades Francisco Ocaña 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2005,97(3-4):269-278
Jupiter and Saturn produce important gravitational impulses on meteoroids released by comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle. The meteoroids from this comet once released follow retrograde orbits that during their periodic approaches to these planets (within 1.6 and 0.9 A.U., respectively) are impulsed gaining orbital energy. This perturbation effect is translated into a net inward shift in the node of the perturbed meteoroids. Such geometry with Jupiter occurred in 2004 over a meteoroid trail ejected by this comet during the 1862 A.D. return of the comet to perihelion. In order to study the predicted outburst produced by one-revolution meteoroids, the Spanish Photographic Meteor Network (SPMN) performed an extensive campaign. As a part of this observational effort here are presented 10 accurate meteoroid orbits. We discuss their origin by comparing them with the theoretical orbital elements of the dust trails intercepting the Earth during the 2004 Perseid return. 相似文献
109.
The interferometer visibility of Jupiter, observed at a wavelength of 3.4 mm, is used to determine the global limb darkening of the planet's brightness. From a single-parameter fit to the visibility curve, we find an ammonia-to-molecular hydrogen mixing ratio of 6.4[+5.1, ?1.9] × 10?5, which corresponds to 35[+28, ?10]% of the solar nitrogen abundance if all of the nitrogen is in the form of ammonia. The fitting procedure uses a simple model atmosphere for the Jovian atmosphere which is based on other observations of the planet. The dependence of the result on the various model parameters is studied. 相似文献
110.
Competing rationalities in water conflict: Mining and the indigenous community in Chiu Chiu,El Loa Province,northern Chile 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Francisco Molina Camacho 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2012,33(1):93-107
Conflict over water is a significant phenomenon in many parts of the world where globally linked neoliberal economic activities encroach on the lands of indigenous peoples. This case study from Chile examines how water scarcity affecting indigenous agricultural communities in the Chilean Altiplano has been exacerbated by legally sanctioned mining‐related practices. Notably, the legal framing of the 1981 Water Code promotes private ownership of water rights and enhanced mining activity usually at the expense of the ancestral territorial rights of indigenous communities. In the case of the Atacameño community of Chiu Chiu, a serious decrease in subsistence and agriculture production has been suffered as a consequence of reduced flow in the Loa River, resulting from the water intensive needs and extraction practices of the nearby Chuquicamata mine owned by Codelco, the National Copper Corporation of Chile. Via an analysis of the political ecology of competing rationalities this paper explores how an economic rationality based on utilitarian and reductionist thinking manifested by Codelco has taken precedence locally over a socionatural rationality grounded in holistic thinking and sustainability concerns as articulated by the Chiu Chiu community. 相似文献