Probabilistic life cycle analysis model for evaluating electric power infrastructure risk mitigation investments

One effect of climate change may be increased hurricane frequency or intensity due to changes in atmospheric and geoclimatic factors. It has been hypothesized that wetland restoration and infrastructure hardening measures may improve infrastructure resilience to increased hurricane frequency and intensity. This paper describes a parametric decision model used to assess the tradeoffs between wetland restoration and infrastructure hardening for electric power networks. We employ a hybrid economic input–output life-cycle analysis (EIO-LCA) model to capture: construction costs and life-cycle emissions for transitioning from the current electric power network configuration to a hardened network configuration; construction costs and life-cycle emissions associated with wetland restoration; and the intrinsic value of wetland restoration. Uncertainty is accounted for probabilistically through a Monte Carlo hurricane simulation model and parametric sensitivity analysis for the number of hurricanes expected to impact the project area during the project cycle and the rate of wetland storm surge attenuation. Our analysis robustly indicates that wetland restoration and undergrounding of electric power network infrastructure is not preferred to the “do-nothing” option of keeping all power lines overhead without wetland protection. However, we suggest a few items for future investigation. For example, our results suggest that, for the small case study developed, synergistic benefits of simultaneously hardening infrastructure and restoring wetlands may be limited, although research using a larger test bed while integrating additional costs may find an enhanced value of wetland restoration for disaster loss mitigation.     

Hydrologic significance of carbon monoxide concentrations in ground water

Dissolved carbon monoxide (CO) is present in ground water produced from a variety of aquifer systems at concentrations ranging from 0.2 to 20 nanomoles per liter (0.0056 to 0.56 microg/L). In two shallow aquifers, one an unconsolidated coastal plain aquifer in Kings Bay, Georgia, and the other a fractured-bedrock aquifer in West Trenton, New Jersey, long-term monitoring showed that CO concentrations varied over time by as much as a factor of 10. Field and laboratory evidence suggests that the delivery of dissolved oxygen to the soil zone and underlying aquifers by periodic recharge events stimulates oxic metabolism and produces transiently high CO concentrations. In between recharge events, the aquifers become anoxic and more substrate limited, CO is consumed as a carbon source, and CO concentrations decrease. According to this model, CO concentrations provide a transient record of oxic metabolism affecting ground water systems after dissolved oxygen has been fully consumed. Because the delivery of oxygen affects the fate and transport of natural and anthropogenic contaminants in ground water, CO concentration changes may be useful for identifying predominantly anoxic ground water systems subject to periodic oxic or microaerophilic conditions.     

Land degradation impacts on tropical agricultural basins and their management: the Nigerian example

This study uses the fault-tree technique to identify the major effects of land degradation caused by the adoption of a malfunctioning shifting cultivation technology for food production in tropical basins. Through reference to existing empirical research, the sequence of events in the process of degradation of the Nigerian agricultural basins and the adjoining river systems was identified and related to the appropriate causal agent. A complete picture of the cost of land degradation goes beyond the degraded terrain and includes damage in areas where there is an unloading of large quantities of run-off and sediments. The causal pathway showed that existing land degradation management policies have focused on the symptoms rather than on the cause of the degradation process. Through a thorough examination of those malfunctioning components of the traditional farming technology, appropriate management strategies are proferred. An institutional organization for land degradation management in Nigeria which includes the federal, state and local governments is strongly recommended.     

High-resolution historical records from Pettaquamscutt River basin sediments: 2. Pb isotopes reveal a potential new stratigraphic marker

A high-resolution record of Pb deposition in Rhode Island over the past 250 yr was constructed using a sediment core from the anoxic Pettaquamscutt River basin. The sedimentary Pb concentration record shows the well-described maximum associated with leaded gasoline usage in the United States. Diminished Pb variability during recorded periods of local industrial activity (1735 to 1847) supports the greater importance of regional atmospheric lead transport vs. local inputs. The Pb isotopic composition at this site shows a clear maximum in anthropogenic ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb in the mid-1800s. Similar peaks have also been observed in sediments from Chesapeake Bay and the Great Lakes, suggesting a common source. Possible causes for this event include mining and smelting of Pb ores in the Upper Mississippi Valley district, which accounted for almost all Pb production in the United States in that period. The timing of this event can provide an important stratigraphic marker for sediments deposited in the past 200 yr in the Northeastern United States. The downcore profile of anthropogenic ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb provides a classic example of how changes in the mixture of ores for production of tetraethyl lead caused a regional-scale shift in the sedimentary record, and suggests that coal could have played a secondary role in Pb emissions after 1920.     

The chemistry of lava-seawater interactions II: the elemental signature

The flow of lava into the ocean at the shoreline of Kilauea Volcano during the ongoing Pu’u O’o eruption has allowed a detailed study of the geochemical interaction between lava and seawater. This paper focuses on the chemistry of the major and minor elements in the fluids that resulted from this interaction. The elemental enrichments in these fluids are dominated by three processes: (1) evaporation of water from seawater, which creates solutions enriched in the major elements found in seawater, (2) congruent dissolution of the basalt glass matrix, which is limited by the solubility of some of the elements in seawater, and (3) removal of volatile phases from the lava on contact with seawater.Using a simple model of volatile emanation (using published emanation coefficients) and congruent dissolution, we are able to explain the concentrations observed for the majority of elements in precipitation from the steam plume at the shoreline lava entry and in water allowed to interact with molten lava in controlled experiments. Fe, Al, Ti, and some of the rare earth elements (REEs) in precipitation samples from the steam plume at the lava entry were > 10,000-times enriched over their ambient seawater concentrations, suggesting that these elements may be useful for identifying submarine eruptions. The flux of elements from the Kilauea ocean lava entry is greater than that from a typical midocean ridge hydrothermal vent field for Al, Cd, Co, and the REEs, whereas the opposite is true for the remainder of the elements studied.     

A PRELIMINARY VALIDATION STUDY OF THE SEASONAL FORECAST OF CCCMA MODEL OVER CHINA

In this study we validate the raw ensemble mean forecasts of the CCCma's GCM2 modelagainst surface temperature and precipitation data obtained from 160 Chinese stations.It is foundthat despite the lagre biases,the model was able to produce seasonal anomalies that haveproperties that are reasonably close to those that are observed.This anomaly is the quantity ofinterest when forecasting seasonal climatic conditions.The root mean squared difference(RMSD)between the forecast and observed anomaly leads us to be modestly optimistic about the prospectsfor using dynamical models to forecast the interannual variability of some meteorological elements.The correlation analysis of the forecast and observation also supports the result given by theRMSD analysis and provides a tool for identify the forecast confidence level in various regions,     

Impact of reach geometry on stream channel sensitivity to extreme floods

Predicting spatial and temporal variations in bank erosion due to extreme floods presents a long‐standing challenge in geomorphology. We develop two methodologies for rapid, regional‐scale assessments of stream reaches susceptible to channel widening. The first proposes that channel widening occurs when unit stream power exceeds a critical threshold (300 W/m²). The second is motivated by the observation that widening often occurs at channel bends. We introduce a new metric, the bend stress parameter, which is proportional to the centripetal force exerted on a concave bank. We propose that high centripetal forces generate locally high bank shear forces and enhance channel bank erosion. We test both metrics using the geomorphic signature of Tropical Storm Irene (2011) on the White and the Saxtons Rivers, Vermont. Specifically, we test if reaches where significant channel widening occurred during Irene required one or both metrics to exceed threshold values. We observe two distinct styles of channel widening. Where unit stream power and bend stress parameter are high, widening is usually due to bank retreat. Elsewhere widening is usually due to the stripping of the upstream end of mid‐channel islands. Excluding widening associated with the stripping of the heads of mid‐channel islands, almost all the widening (> 98%) occurred along reaches identified as susceptible to widening. The combined metrics identify up to one‐quarter of the reaches lacking susceptibility to channel widening. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Frasnian rugose and tabulate corals from the eastern Taurus (Kozan region,Turkey)

A section near the Kilgen Lake (Adana Province) has yielded a fauna of rugose and tabulate corals including Disphyllum cf. rugosum (Wedekind, 1922), D. cf. curtum Hill, 1954, Wapitiphyllum sp., Thamnopora sp., and Alveolites sp. This coral assemblage is consistent with the previous Frasnian age assigned to the limestones of the Gümü?ali Formation. The rather well-preserved material provides new data on the structure and microstructure of Disphyllum and allows to describe in Thamnopora unusual calicinal morphology (septal ridges, median teeth, and pseudopercula) as well as new structures linked to the lateral increase (basal low wall, apical cul-de-sac).