Uncertainty quantification of overpressure buildup through inverse modeling of compaction processes in sedimentary basins

This study illustrates a procedure conducive to a preliminary risk analysis of overpressure development in sedimentary basins characterized by alternating depositional events of sandstone and shale layers. The approach rests on two key elements: (1) forward modeling of fluid flow and compaction, and (2) application of a model-complexity reduction technique based on a generalized polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE). The forward model considers a one-dimensional vertical compaction processes. The gPCE model is then used in an inverse modeling context to obtain efficient model parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification. The methodology is applied to two field settings considered in previous literature works, i.e. the Venture Field (Scotian Shelf, Canada) and the Navarin Basin (Bering Sea, Alaska, USA), relying on available porosity and pressure information for model calibration. It is found that the best result is obtained when porosity and pressure data are considered jointly in the model calibration procedure. Uncertainty propagation from unknown input parameters to model outputs, such as pore pressure vertical distribution, is investigated and quantified. This modeling strategy enables one to quantify the relative importance of key phenomena governing the feedback between sediment compaction and fluid flow processes and driving the buildup of fluid overpressure in stratified sedimentary basins characterized by the presence of low-permeability layers. The results here illustrated (1) allow for diagnosis of the critical role played by the parameters of quantitative formulations linking porosity and permeability in compacted shales and (2) provide an explicit and detailed quantification of the effects of their uncertainty in field settings.     

Exploiting historical rainfall and landslide data in a spatial database for the derivation of critical rainfall thresholds

Critical rainfall thresholds for landslides are powerful tools for preventing landslide hazard. The thresholds are commonly estimated empirically starting from rainfall events that triggered landslides in the past. The creation of the appropriate rainfall–landslide database is one of the main efforts in this approach. In fact, an accurate agreement between the landslide and rainfall information, in terms of location and timing, is essential in order to correctly estimate the rainfall–landslide relationships. A further issue is taking into account the average moisture conditions prior the triggering event, which reasonably may be crucial in determining the sufficient amount of precipitation. In this context, the aim of this paper is exploiting historical landslide and rainfall data in a spatial database for the derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence in Sicily, southern Italy. The hourly rainfall events that caused landslides occurred in the twentieth century were specifically identified and reconstructed. A procedure was proposed to automatically convert rain guages charts recorded on paper tape into digital format and then to provide the cumulative rainfall hyetograph in digital format. This procedure is based on a segmentation followed by signal recognition techniques which allow to digitalize and to recognize the hyetograph automatically. The role of rainfall prior to the landslide events was taken into account by including in the analysis the rainfall occurred 5, 15 and 30 days before each landslide. Finally, cumulated rainfall duration thresholds for different exceedance probability levels were determined. The obtained thresholds resulted in agreement with the regional curves proposed by other authors for the same area; antecedent rainfall turned out to be particularly important in triggering landslides.     

Seismic performance of masonry walls retrofitted with steel reinforced grout

An innovative solution for the seismic protection of existing masonry structures is proposed and investigated through shake table tests on a natural scale wall assemblage. After a former test series carried out without reinforcement, the specimen was retrofitted using Steel Reinforced Grout. The strengthening system comprises horizontal strips of ultra‐high strength steel cords, externally bonded to the masonry with hydraulic lime mortar, and connectors to transversal walls, applied within the thickness of the plaster layer. In order to assess the seismic performance of the retrofitted wall, natural accelerograms were applied with increasing intensity up to failure. Test results provide a deep understanding of the effectiveness of mortar‐based composites for improving the out‐of‐plane seismic capacity of masonry walls, in comparison with traditional reinforcements with steel tie‐bars. The structural implications of the proposed solution in terms of dynamic properties and damage development under earthquake loads are also discussed.Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Vegetation turnover in a braided river: frequency and effectiveness of floods of different magnitude

This work addresses the temporal dynamics of riparian vegetation in large braided rivers, exploring the relationship between vegetation erosion and flood magnitude. In particular, it investigates the existence of a threshold discharge, or a range of discharges, above which erosion of vegetated patches within the channel occurs. The research was conducted on a 14 km long reach of the Tagliamento River, a braided river in north‐eastern Italy. Ten sets of aerial photographs were used to investigate vegetation dynamics in the period 1954–2011. By using different geographic information system (GIS) procedures, three aspects of geomorphic‐vegetation dynamics and interactions were addressed: (i) long‐term (1954–2011) channel evolution and vegetation dynamics; (ii) the relationship between vegetation erosion/establishment and flow regime; (iii) vegetation turnover, in the period 1986–2011. Results show that vegetation turnover is remarkably rapid in the study reach with 50% of in‐channel vegetation persisting for less than 5–6 years and only 10% of vegetation persisting for more than 18–19 years. The analysis shows that significant vegetation erosion is determined by relatively frequent floods, i.e. floods with a recurrence interval of c. 1–2.5 years, although some differences exist between sub‐reaches with different densities of vegetation cover. These findings suggest that the erosion of riparian vegetation in braided rivers may not be controlled solely by very large floods, as is the case for lower energy gravel‐bed rivers. Besides flow regime, other factors seem to play a significant role for in‐channel vegetation cover over long time spans. In particular, erosion of marginal vegetation, which supplies large wood elements to the channel, increased notably over the study period and was an important factor for in‐channel vegetation trends. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sediment yield of the lower Tana River,Kenya, is insensitive to dam construction: sediment mobilization processes in a semi‐arid tropical river system

Dam construction in the 1960s to 1980s significantly modified sediment supply from the Kenyan uplands to the lower Tana River. To assess the effect on suspended sediment fluxes of the Tana River, we monitored the sediment load at high temporal resolution for 1 year and complemented our data with historical information. The relationship between sediment concentration and water discharge was complex: at the onset of the wet season, discharge peaks resulted in high sediment concentrations and counterclockwise hysteresis, while towards the end of the wet season, a sediment exhaustion effect led to low concentrations despite the high discharge. The total sediment flux at Garissa (c. 250 km downstream of the lowermost dam) between June 2012 and June 2013 was 8.8 Mt yr^‐1. Comparison of current with historical fluxes indicated that dam construction had not greatly affected the annual sediment flux. We suggest that autogenic processes, namely river bed dynamics and bank erosion, mobilized large quantities of sediments stored in the alluvial plain downstream of the dams. Observations supporting the importance of autogenic processes included the absence of measurable activities of the fall‐out radionuclides ⁷Be and ¹³⁷Cs in the suspended sediment, the rapid lateral migration of the river course, and the seasonal changes in river cross‐section. Given the large stock of sediment in the alluvial valley of the Tana River, it may take centuries before the effect of damming shows up as a quantitative reduction in the sediment flux at Garissa. Many models relate the sediment load of rivers to catchment characteristics, thereby implicitly assuming that alterations in the catchment induce changes in the sediment load. Our research confirms that the response of an alluvial river to external disturbances such as land use or climate change is often indirect or non‐existent as autogenic processes overwhelm the changes in the input signal. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A comparison of wetness indices for the prediction of observed connected saturated areas under contrasting conditions

For lack of other widely available spatial information, topography is often used to predict water fluxes and water quality in mesoscale watersheds. Such data have however proven to be misleading in many environments where large and flat valley bottoms and/or highly conducive soil covers determine water storage and water transport mechanisms. Also, the focus is generally on the prediction of saturation areas regardless of whether they are connected to the catchment hydrographic network or rather present in isolated topographic depressions. Here soil information was coupled with terrain data towards the targeted prediction of connected saturated areas. The focus was on the 30 km² Girnock catchment (Cairngorm Mountains, northeast Scotland) and its 3 km² sub‐catchment, Bruntland Burn in which seven field surveys were done to capture actual maps of connected saturated areas in both dry and humid conditions. The 1 km² resolution UK Hydrology of Soil Types (HOST) classification was used to extract relevant, spatially variable, soil parameters. Results show that connected saturated areas were fairly well predicted by wetness indices but only in wet conditions when they covered more than 30% of the whole catchment area. Geomorphic indices including information on terrain shape, steepness, aspect, soil texture and soil depth showed potential but generally performed poorly. Indices based on soil and topographic data did not have more predictive power than those based on topographic information only: this was attributed to the coarse resolution of the HOST classification. Nevertheless, analyses provided interesting insights into the scale‐dependent water storage and transport mechanisms in both study catchments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Paleoflood events recorded by speleothems in caves

Speleothems are usually composed of thin layers of calcite (or aragonite). However, cemented detrital materials interlayered between laminae of speleothemic carbonate have been also observed in many caves. Flowstones comprising discontinuous carbonate layers form due to flowing water films, while flood events introduce fluviokarstic sediments in caves that, on occasion, are recorded as clayey layers inside flowstones and stalagmites. This record provides a potential means of understanding the frequency of palaeofloods using cave records. In this work, we investigate the origin of this type of detrital deposit in El Soplao Cave (Northern Spain). The age of the lowest aragonite layer of a flowstone reveals that the earliest flood period occurred before 500 ka, though most of the flowstone formed between 422 +69/‐43 ka and 400 +66/‐42 ka. This suggests that the cave was periodically affected by palaeoflood events that introduced detrital sediments from the surface as a result of occasional extreme rainfall events, especially at around 400 ka. The mineralogical data enable an evolutionary model for this flowstone to be generated based on the alternation of flood events with laminar flows and carbonate layers precipitation that can be extrapolated to other caves in which detrital sediments inside speleothems have been found. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Formation of an ‘a’ā lava delta: insights from time-lapse multibeam bathymetry and direct observations during the Stromboli 2007 eruption

Five consecutive multibeam bathymetries collected before, during, and after the 2007 Stromboli eruption, combined with visual inspections, allowed us to document the morphological evolution of an ‘a’ā lava-fed delta and to reconstruct the main processes acting during its submarine emplacement. The 2007 Stromboli delta extended down to 600-m water depth and covered an area of 420?×?10³ m², with a maximum thickness of 65 m and a total estimated volume of ≈7?×?10⁶ m³, i.e., three times larger than its subaerial counterpart. The lava delta grew mainly through the emplacement of discrete lobes about 50–150 m in size. Lobes were fed from point sources along the paleoshoreline, and their subaqueous pathways seem to be mainly controlled by the submarine morphology, with flows mostly filling in depressions left by previous lobes. The main controlling factors on the lobe morphology and thickness are the effusion rates and the pre-eruption morphology, i.e., the geometry and gradients of the basal surface. Data also shows that sudden slope failure of portions of the submarine delta may occur simultaneously with accretion, implying that a significant part of the delta material can be transported to greater depths by submarine gravity flows. The present study is relevant for future monitoring and hazard assessment during the growth of active lava-fed deltas as well as for a better interpretation of ancient volcaniclastic successions inland.     

Performance of masonry buildings during the Emilia 2012 earthquake

The earthquake sequence started on May \(20\) th 2012 in Emilia (Italy) affected a region where masonry constructions represent a large part of the existing building stock and the construction of new modern masonry buildings is a common practice. The paper is focused on the performance of common architectural configurations, typical for residential or business use. The large majority of old masonry buildings is made of fired clay bricks. The seismic performance of these buildings is particularly interesting since major past earthquakes in Italy affected areas with mainly stone masonry structures. Apart from examples showing systematic or peculiar structural deficiencies governing the vulnerability of several buildings, the overall seismic performance of these structures to repeated shaking, with PGA as large as 0.25–0.3 g was rather good, despite the major part of them were only conceived for carrying vertical loads. In fact, seismic design is mandatory in the area only since 2003. Modern low-rise masonry buildings erected after this date and incorporating seismic design and proper detailing resulted in most cases practically undamaged. The examples reported in the paper allow an evaluation of the superior performance of seismically designed modern masonry buildings in comparison to older ones.