Resilience and seismic risk perception at school: a geoethical experiment in Aiello Calabro,southern Italy

The last few years have seen the debate on the geoethics of environmental and climatic protection growing to include resilience as a central idea within this new discipline, which holds many similarities with geography. Resilience analysis often looks at the capacity to re-establish conditions of equilibrium within a system which has been hit by a serious shock, e.g. a natural or man-made disaster. Geoethics works, in tandem with geological analyses and the geography of risk, to inform a population and develop integrated risk management in such a way as to strengthen a community’s resilience. The aim of this work is to study some people’s capacity to overcome what was potentially a disastrous event and, through a process of reconstruction, turn it into an occasion for growth. The experiment, carried out in the primary and middle schools in Aiello Calabro (Calabria, southern Italy), was conducted on the basis of the belief that there is a close relationship between a population’s having a realistic understanding of the risk of such an event, e.g. an earthquake, and high levels of resilience. We also tried to gain an insight into the relationship that may exist between resilience in primary and secondary school children and methods of coping which give an appropriate management of seismic risk. To be more precise, we try to discover whether there is a link between good/appropriate resilience and good/appropriate risk management.

     

The relation between karst spring discharge and rainfall by cross-correlation analysis (Campania, southern Italy)

The relation between rainfall and the discharge from two springs, located at the base of different karst massifs in southern Italy, is investigated by cross-correlation analyses. Data are derived from a continuous time window of 13 years. The input signal involves multiple rainfall time series (cumulative rainfall over varying time windows), while the time series of daily spring discharges are used as the output signal. Analyses were first conducted on the unprocessed data and then on data for which linear trends and seasonal components had been removed, the latter by a spectral analysis. Analyses contributed to the investigation of the time required for water to flow through the karst aquifers at the two sites. Long time intervals of the cumulative rainfall (>60 days) appear to be the main component affecting the spring discharge hydrographs; shorter time intervals seem to be related to quick-flow paths. Some statistics about the linear regression and the meaning of the cross-correlation analysis are discussed. Cross-correlation analysis can provide strong support for identification of the main rainfall contribution and the travel time through the main infiltration pathways in aquifers.     

Delineation of flooding risk hotspots based on digital elevation model,calculated and historical flooding extents: the case of Ouagadougou

Delineation of flood risk hotspots can be considered as one of the first steps in an integrated methodology for urban flood risk management and mitigation. This paper presents a step-by-step methodology in a GIS-based framework for identifying flooding risk hotspots for residential buildings. This is done by overlaying a map of potentially flood-prone areas [estimated through the topographic wetness index (TWI)], a map of residential areas [extracted from a city-wide assessment of urban morphology types (UMT)], and a geo-spatial census dataset. The novelty of this paper consists in the fact that the flood-prone areas (the TWI thresholds) are identified through a maximum likelihood method (MLE) based both on inundation profiles calculated for a specific return period (T_R), and on information about the extent of historical flooding in the area of interest. Furthermore, Bayesian parameter updating is employed in order to estimate the TWI threshold by employing the historical extent as prior information and the inundation map for calculating the likelihood function. For different statistics of the TWI threshold, the map of potentially flood-prone areas is overlaid with the map of residential urban morphology units in order to delineate the residential flooding risk urban hotspots. Overlaying the delineated urban hotspots with geo-spatial census datasets, the number of people affected by flooding is estimated. These kind of screening procedures are particularly useful for locations where there is a lack of detailed data or where it is difficult to perform accurate flood risk assessment. In fact, an application of the proposed procedure is demonstrated for the identification of urban flooding risk hotspots in the city of Ouagadougou, capital of Burkina Faso, a city for which the observed spatial extent of a major flood event in 2009 and a calculated inundation map for a return period of 300 years are both available.     

Can we tell more than we can know? The limits of bivariate drought analyses in the United States

The joint occurrence of extreme hydroclimatic events, such as simultaneous precipitation deficit and high temperature, results in the so-called compound events, and has a serious impact on risk assessment and mitigation strategies. Multivariate frequency analysis (MFA) allows a probabilistic quantitative assessment of this risk under uncertainty. Analyzing precipitation and temperature records in the contiguous United States (CONUS), and focusing on the assessment of the degree of rarity of the 2014 California drought, we highlight some critical aspects of MFA that are often overlooked and should be carefully taken into account for a correct interpretation of the results. In particular, we show that an informative exploratory data analysis (EDA) devised to check the basic hypotheses of MFA, a suitable assessment of the sampling uncertainty, and a better understanding of probabilistic concepts can help to avoid misinterpretation of univariate and multivariate return periods, and incoherent conclusions concerning the risk of compound extreme hydroclimatic events. Empirical results show that the dependence between precipitation deficit and temperature across the CONUS can be positive, negative or not significant and does not exhibit significant changes in the last three decades. Focusing on the 2014 California drought as a compound event and based on the data used, the probability of occurrence strongly depends on the selected variables and how they are combined, and is affected by large uncertainty, thus preventing definite conclusions about the actual degree of rarity of this event.     

Dissecting innovative trend analysis

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - Investigating the nature of trends in time series is one of the most common analyses performed in hydro-climate research. However, trend...     

On Szebehely's problem for holonomic systems involving generalized potential functions

We consider the problem of finding the generalized potential function V = U _i(q ¹, q ²,..., q ⁿ)q ⁱ + U(q ¹, q ²,...;q ⁿ) compatible with prescribed dynamical trajectories of a holonomic system. We obtain conditions necessary for the existence of solutions to the problem: these can be cast into a system of n – 1 first order nonlinear partial differential equations in the unknown functions U ₁, U ₂,...;, U _n, U. In particular we study dynamical systems with two degrees of freedom. Using adapted coordinates on the configuration manifold M ₂ we obtain, for potential function U(q ¹, q ²), a classic first kind of Abel ordinary differential equation. Moreover, we show that, in special cases of dynamical interest, such an equation can be solved by quadrature. In particular we establish, for ordinary potential functions, a classical formula obtained in different way by Joukowsky for a particle moving on a surface.Work performed with the support of the Gruppo Nazionale di Fisica Matematica (G.N.F.M.) of the Italian National Research Council.     

Slope stabilization in difficult conditions: the case study of a debris slide in NW Italian Alps

A case study of a debris slide (estimated volume of about 35,000 m³) is described in this paper. This slide occurred in April 2009 in the North Western Italian Alps (Aosta valley) and damaged the SR25 road along the Valgrisenche valley. Ground investigations started with severe safety and logistic issues being posed. Given the need to open as soon as possible the road, the design of the landslide stabilization works was carried out using a “design as you go” approach. The stabilization measures were conceived to be flexible in order to allow for changes and integration during construction, in line with the progressive refinement of the geological–geotechnical slope model being developed. Back analysis by means of the limit equilibrium method (LEM) and the finite element method (FEM) was used. Groundwater level rise following heavy rainfall and spring snow melting was found to be the main cause of the debris slide. The stabilization works were designed by using both the LEM and FEM methods. The stability conditions of the engineered slope were assessed based on the available performance monitoring data.     

Space/time tectono-sedimentary evolution of the Umbria-Romagna-Marche Miocene Basin (Northern Apennines, Italy): a foredeep model

The space/time evolution of the Umbria-Romagna-Marche domains of the northern Apennine Miocene foredeep is proposed. In this period, the turbidite siliciclastic sedimentation is represented mainly by the Miocene Marnoso-Arenacea Formation, which generally ends with mainly marly deposits. From the internal Apennine sectors (Umbria-Romagna domain) to the external Adriatic Margin (Marche domain) the siliciclastic succession overlies hemipelagic marly deposits (Schlier Formation). The whole depositional area can be considered as a single wide basin with depocenter or main sedimentation areas progressively migrating eastwards. This basin is characterized by some morphological highs which did not constitute real dams for the sedimentary flows (turbidity currents). Multiple feeding (arkose, litharenites, calcarenites) from different sources is related to palaeogeographical and palaeotectonic reorganization of the most internal, previously deformed, Apennine areas. The activation of the foredeep stage is marked by the beginning of the siliciclastic sedimentation (Late Burdigalian in the most internal sector). This sedimentation ends in the most external sector in the Early Messinian, pointing to a depositional cycle of about 9?C10?Ma. The diachronism of the base of the siliciclastic deposition proves to be almost 5?Ma. The syn-depositional compressional deformation, which shows a marked diachronism, affected the internal area of the foredeep in the Early-Middle Serravallian, and progressively migrated up to Late Miocene, involving more and more external sectors. The deformed siliciclastic sedimentary wedge constitutes an orogenic pile incorporated in the Apennine Chain, represented by different tectonic elements superimposed by means of NE-vergent thrusts. The main stratigraphic and tectonic events of the Toscana-Romagna-Marche Apennines are presented in a general framework, resulting also in a terminological revision.     

Rainfall induced debris flows in pyroclastic deposits, Campania (southern Italy)

A combination of empirical and physically based hydrological models has been used to analyze historical data on rainfall and debris-flow occurrence in western Campania, to examine the correlation between rainfall and debris-flow events.

Rainfall data from major storms recorded in recent decades in western Campania were compiled, including daily series from several rain gauges located inside landslide areas, supplemented by hourly rainfall data from some of the principal storms.

A two-phase approach is proposed. During phase 1, soil moisture levels have been modelled as the hydrological balance between precipitation and evapotranspiration, on a daily scale, using the method of Thornthwaite [Geograph. Rev. 38 (1948) 55].

Phase 2 is related to the accumulation of surplus moisture from intense rainfall, leading to the development of positive pore pressures. These interactions take place on an hourly time scale by the “leaky barrel” (LB) model described by Wilson and Wiezoreck [Env. Eng. Geoscience, 1 (1995) 11]. In combination with hourly rainfall records, the LB model has been used to compare hydrological effects of different storms. The critical level of retained rain water has been fixed by the timing of debris-flow activity, related to recorded storm events.

New rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for debris-flow initiation in western Campania are proposed. These thresholds are related to individual rain gauge and assume a previously satisfied field capacity condition. The new thresholds are somewhat higher than those plotted by previous authors, but are thought to be more accurate and thus need less conservatism.