Spatiotemporal evolution of the completeness magnitude of the Icelandic earthquake catalogue from 1991 to 2013

In 1991, a digital seismic monitoring network was installed in Iceland with a digital seismic system and automatic operation. After 20 years of operation, we explore for the first time its nationwide performance by analysing the spatiotemporal variations of the completeness magnitude. We use the Bayesian magnitude of completeness (BMC) method that combines local completeness magnitude observations with prior information based on the density of seismic stations. Additionally, we test the impact of earthquake location uncertainties on the BMC results, by filtering the catalogue using a multivariate analysis that identifies outliers in the hypocentre error distribution. We find that the entire North-to-South active rift zone shows a relatively low magnitude of completeness M_c in the range 0.5–1.0, highlighting the ability of the Icelandic network to detect small earthquakes. This work also demonstrates the influence of earthquake location uncertainties on the spatiotemporal magnitude of completeness analysis.     

Numerical simulation of the tsunami generated by a past catastrophic landslide on the volcanic island of Ischia, Italy

The island of Ischia, Gulf of Naples, Italy, like many other volcanic islands is affected by mass failures, that are mainly related to secondary volcanic processes such as slope steepening and seismic shaking. The block resurgence of its main relief, Mount Epomeo, has been recognised to contribute cyclically to mass instability and cause landslides, that occasionally may reach the sea and start tsunamis. In this work we explore the consequences of the Ischia Debris Avalanche (IDA), a flank collapse that occurred in historical times, and involved the whole Mount Epomeo edifice including its submarine portion, and that may have caused gigantic sea waves affecting all the coasts of Ischia and of the Gulf of Naples. The IDA and the generated tsunami have been taken as the worst-case scenario for the occurrence of a new tsunami in the area. They have been simulated through numerical codes developed and maintained by the University of Bologna. The simulation shows that the IDA-induced tsunami attacks severely all the coasts of the Gulf of Naples with the highest waves obtained for the island of Ischia, the island of Capri and the peninsula of Sorrento. The propagation pattern of the IDA tsunami can be used to get hints on the impact that such an event may have had on early populations habiting Gulf of Naples, but also to get clues on the area that could be most severely hit by a tsunami generated by a smaller-scale landslide that may occur in the same source zone.     

New model to determine forces at on-bottom slender pipelines

The present paper proposes a numerical model to determine horizontal and vertical components of the hydrodynamic forces on a slender submarine pipeline lying at the sea bed and exposed to non-linear waves plus a current. The new model is an extension of the Wake II type model, originally proposed for sinusoidal waves (Soedigdo et al., 1999) and for combined sinusoidal waves and currents (Sabag et al., 2000), to the case of periodic or random waves, even with a superimposed current. The Wake II type model takes into account the wake effects on the kinematic field and the time variation of drag and lift hydrodynamic coefficients. The proposed extension is based on an evolutional analysis carried out for each half period of the free stream horizontal velocity at the pipeline. An analytical expression of the wake velocity is developed starting from the Navier–Stokes and the boundary layer equations. The time variation of the drag and lift hydrodynamic coefficients is obtained using a Gaussian integration of the start-up function. A reduced scale laboratory investigation in a large wave flume has been conducted in order to calibrate the empirical parameters involved in the proposed model. Different wave and current conditions have been considered and measurements of free stream horizontal velocities and dynamic pressures on a bottom-mounted pipeline have been conducted. The comparison between experimental and numerical hydrodynamic forces shows the accuracy of the new model in evaluating the time variation of peaks and phase shifts of the horizontal and vertical wave and current induced forces.     

Characterizing impulsive wave-in-deck loads on coastal bridges by probabilistic models of impact maxima and rise times

When waves impact a seawall, a vertical breakwater, an exposed jetty, a pier or a coastal bridge, they abruptly transfer their momentum into the structure. This energy transfer can be very violent and its duration exceptionally short. In the case of coastal bridges, whose spans are designed to have very short vibration period, wave impacts might have duration comparable to the natural period of oscillation of the structure, which therefore becomes prone to damage and failure. Previous forensic studies have documented the relative importance of impulsive loads on deck suspended structure, demonstrating the need to assess the effect of wave impacts on both the stability and the integrity of structural members since the early stages of the design. This requires the estimation of the dynamic characteristics of the loading pattern, and in particular the wave impulse and corresponding impact maxima and rise times. Based on the conservation of momentum, functional relationships between these parameters have been identified since pioneering work dating back to the late '30s of the 20th century. The complexity of the loading process, however, results in a significantly large variability of wave impact maxima and rise times even under similar conditions, suggesting the need for a probabilistic approach to the definition of the relationship between these two variables, to be applied when estimating the dynamic properties of wave for use in structural analysis of coastal structures. In the recent past, some effort has been made to identify functional relationships between such quantities; these require the assessment of the conditional quantiles (or similarly the conditional distribution) of wave impact maxima given the rise times. In this paper, we compare three different statistical methods proposed in the literature to accomplish this task, in order to assess the reliability of the approach and suggest guidelines for practical applications. A copula-based method, Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS), and quantile regression are applied to measurements from large-scale 3-dimensional physical model tests. The investigation suggests that quantile regression gives the simplest results to be used in practice; copula approach and GAMLSS are possible alternative when semi-parametric or fully parametric modeling is needed.     

Seabed Morphology and Pollution Along the Bagnoli Coast (Naples, Italy): a Hypothesis for Environmental Restoration

Abstract. The interaction of coastal and submarine morphology with the hydrodynamic regimes exerts a control on coastal dynamic processes, conditioning the dispersion of sediments and potential pollutants existing in the area. Thus, the study of such parameters is useful in order to define environmental threats. Within the submerged sector of the Bagnoli coast and particularly in the southern part of the investigated area, there are sediment groups composed of very fine sands located in low-energy zones due to wave refraction and diffraction; they can also be found on the sea bottom and on the man-made structures typical of this zone. These areas show high pollutant levels of N, P, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn, Cd, polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and polychlorinated bi-phenyls (PCBs). The northern area, a place of high-energy hydrodynamic processes, also shows high concentration levels of pollutants due to the presence of secondary cell circulation.
Morphological research and analysis of textural characteristics of bottom sediments along the Bagnoli coast allowed the actual processes and their evolution in space and time to be defined. It has also been possible to correlate such processes to the seabed morphology system, the wave formations which affect the coast, the complex system of sediment transport, as well as to the man-made interventions in the area. The results of recent chemical analyses of beach sediments and bottom sediments off the Bagnoli coast were also incorporated. They prove the presence of heavy metals, PAHs and PCBs in high and sometimes very high concentrations. Finally, based on the results of research and analyses, a hypothesis for an intervention for environmental restoration has been formulated in order to renaturalise the coast through dredging and treatment of the sand, both on the seabed and on the emerged beach.     

Total content and chemical speciation of arsenic in the polychaete Sabella spallanzanii

An unusual feature has been observed in polychaetes regarding their capacity to accumulate high levels of relatively toxic forms of arsenic in specific tissues. Basal levels of arsenic and distribution of its compounds were investigated in tissues of the Mediterranean polychaete Sabella spallanzanii. Particularly high concentrations were measured in the branchial crown (1036+/-136 microg/g d.w.) and chemical speciation revealed that the predominant form was the relatively toxic dimethylarsinate (DMA). These data suggest a potential role of As as anti-predatory strategy in polychaetes.     

Low reproductive success for copepods during a bloom of the non‐aldehyde‐producing diatom Cerataulina pelagica in the North Adriatic Sea

Egg production rates and/or hatching success in the copepods Acartia clausi, Calanus helgolandicus and Temora longicornis were negatively affected by a late spring (May–June 2003) phytoplankton bloom in the North Adriatic Sea, dominated mainly by the large diatom Cerataulina pelagica. Highest total concentrations of 3.3·10⁴ cells·ml^?1 were located in the vicinity of the Po River, which also corresponded to the area where the highest numbers of phaeophorbides were measured (0.779, 0.528 and 0.419 μg·l^?1, respectively, compared to an average of the remaining stations of 0.183 ± 0.049 SD), suggesting some grazing on the bloom. Phytoplankton biomass in terms of carbon was dominated by diatoms, representing on average 42% of total phytoplankton carbon and more than 80% at several stations. Cerataulina pelagica, Cyclotella spp., Chaetoceros spp. and small unidentified centric diatoms dominated the diatom community numerically but C. pelagica was by far the dominant diatom in terms of carbon due to its large cell size. This species represented more than 60% of the diatom biomass at nine of the 14 stations sampled, and was absent only at one station, which was the most offshore station sampled during the cruise. Although polyunsaturated aldehydes (PUAs) were not detected, other oxylipins which are hydroxy and keto derivatives of eicosapentaenoic and docosahexaenoic acids that affect copepod reproduction were found in these samples. Hence, we can attribute the negative impact of diatoms not only to PUAs, as previously believed, but also to these compounds. This is the first direct evidence of the presence of oxylipins other than PUAs in marine blooms dominated by diatoms.