Modeling radar-rainfall estimation uncertainties using parametric and non-parametric approaches

There are large uncertainties associated with radar estimates of rainfall, including systematic errors as well as the random effects from several sources. This study focuses on the modeling of the systematic error component, which can be described mathematically in terms of a conditional expectation function. The authors present two different approaches: non-parametric (kernel-based) and parametric (copula-based). A large sample (more than six years) of rain gauge measurements from a dense network located in south-west England is used as an approximation of the true ground rainfall. These data are complemented with rainfall estimates by a C-band weather radar located at Wardon Hill, which is about 40 km from the catchment. The authors compare the results obtained using the parametric and non-parametric schemes for four temporal scales of hydrologic interest (5 and 15 min, hourly and three-hourly) by means of several different performance indices and discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each approach.     

Incorporating multiple observations for distributed hydrologic model calibration: An approach using a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm and clustering

The use of distributed data for model calibration is becoming more popular in the advent of the availability of spatially distributed observations. Hydrological model calibration has traditionally been carried out using single objective optimisation and only recently has been extended to a multi-objective optimisation domain. By formulating the calibration problem with several objectives, each objective relating to a set of observations, the parameter sets can be constrained more effectively. However, many previous multi-objective calibration studies do not consider individual observations or catchment responses separately, but instead utilises some form of aggregation of objectives. This paper proposes a multi-objective calibration approach that can efficiently handle many objectives using both clustering and preference ordered ranking. The algorithm is applied to calibrate the MIKE SHE distributed hydrologic model and tested on the Karup catchment in Denmark. The results indicate that the preferred solutions selected using the proposed algorithm are good compromise solutions and the parameter values are well defined. Clustering with Kohonen mapping was able to reduce the number of objective functions from 18 to 5. Calibration using the standard deviation of groundwater level residuals enabled us to identify a group of wells that may not be simulated properly, thus highlighting potential problems with the model parameterisation.     

The role of rainfall in the landslide hazard: the case of the Avigliano urban area (Southern Apennines, Italy)

Mass movements varying in type and size, some of which are periodically reactivated, affect the urban area of Avigliano. The disturbed and remoulded masses consist of sandy–silty or silty–clayey plastic material interbedded with stone fragments and conglomerate blocks. Five landslides that were markedly liable to rainfall-associated instability phenomena were selected.

The relationships between landslides and rainfall were investigated using a hydrological and statistical model based on long-term series of daily rainfall data. The model was used to determine the return period of cumulative daily rainfall over 1–180 days. The resulting hydrological and statistical findings are discussed with the aim of identifying the rainfall duration most critical to landslides.

The concept of a precipitation threshold was generalized by defining some probability classes of cumulative rainfall. These classes indicate the thresholds beyond which reactivation is likely to occur. The probability classes are defined according to the return period of the cumulative rainfall concomitant with landslide reactivation.     

Is the Linné impact crater morphology influenced by the rheological layering on the Moon's surface? Insights from numerical modeling

Linné is a simple crater, with a diameter of 2.23 km and a depth of 0.52 km, located in northwestern Mare Serenitatis. Recent high‐resolution data acquired by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera revealed that the shape of this impact structure is best described by an inverted truncated‐cone. We perform morphometric measurements, including slope and profile curvature, on the Digital Terrain Model of Linné, finding the possible presence of three subtle topographic steps, at the elevation of +20, ?100, and ?200 m relative to the target surface. The kink at ?100 m might be related to the interface between two different rheological layers. Using the iSALE shock physics code, we numerically model the formation of Linné crater to derive hints on the possible impact conditions and target physical properties. In the initial setup, we adopt a basaltic projectile impacting the Moon with a speed of 18 km s^?1. For the local surface, we consider either one or two layers, in order to test the influence of material properties or composite rheologies on the final crater morphology. The one‐layer model shows that the largest variations in the crater shape take place when either the cohesion or the friction coefficient is varied. In particular, a cohesion of 10 kPa marks the threshold between conical‐ and parabolic‐shaped craters. The two‐layer model shows that the interface between the two layers would be exposed at the observed depth of 100 m when an intermediate value (~200 m) for the upper fractured layer is set. We have also found that the truncated‐cone morphology of Linné might originate from an incomplete collapse of the crater wall, as the breccia lens remains clustered along the crater walls, while the high‐albedo deposit on the crater floor can be interpreted as a very shallow lens of fallout breccia. The modeling analysis allows us to derive important clues on the impactor size (under the assumption of a vertical impact and collision velocity equal to the mean value), and on the approximate, large‐scale preimpact target properties. Observations suggest that these large‐scale material properties likely include some important smaller scale variations, disclosed as subtle morphological steps in the crater walls. Furthermore, the modeling results allow advancing some hypotheses on the geological evolution of the Mare Serenitatis region where Linné crater is located (unit S14). We suggest that unit S14 has a thickness of at least a few hundreds of meters up to about 400 m.     

Seasonal variations of exposure biomarkers, oxidative stress responses and cell damage in the clams, Tapes philippinarum, and mussels, Mytilus galloprovincialis, from Adriatic sea

This work investigated the natural variability of several biomarkers in Tapes philippinarum and Mytilus galloprovincialis, sampled from Northern Adriatic where these organisms are important sentinel species for future environmental impact assessment. Levels of metallothioneins, peroxisomal enzymes and acetylcholinesterase, showed a significant seasonality and marked differences between clams and mussels. Among antioxidant enzymes, catalase and GST decreased during the warmer period, the latter enzyme activity resulting particularly high in clams. The total oxyradical scavenging capacity toward peroxyl radicals decreased in mussels from winter to summer, indicating a prooxidant challenge due to higher seawater temperature and intensity of light irradiance. Lysosomal membrane stability did not exhibit significant seasonal variations, while some variations were observed for DNA damages. Overall results indicated a significant influence of seasonal variability on several biomarkers and species-specific differences which should be considered to discriminate the appearance of anthropogenic disturbance.     

Impact of ancient metal smelting on arsenic pollution in the Pecora River Valley,Southern Tuscany,Italy

A significant As anomaly has been reported in the literature for stream sediments and unlithified Quaternary deposits of the Pecora River valley in Southern Tuscany, extending from the “Colline Metallifere” pyrite-base metals district to the Tyrrhenian Sea. The As anomaly spreads over several square kilometers around a core that exceeds 500 ppm. Several source contributions (from natural to anthropogenic) have been invoked to explain the observed As distribution in the Pecora Valley, including the metal-working industry which was active in this area, particularly in Etrusco-Roman times and in the Middle Ages. In order to evaluate the contribution of ancient mining and metallurgical activities in the Pecora Valley to elevated As concentrations in the environment, a detailed mineralogical and geochemical survey of metallurgical slags and smelted ore minerals was undertaken from six different sites through the Pecora Valley: Poggio Butelli (Etrusco-Roman iron slags); Sata Creek, Arialla, Marsiliana, Forra and Cascata sites (all Medieval base metals slags). The As content of Etrusco-Roman slags is relatively low (few tens of ppm), whereas Medieval slags show variable, but higher amounts of base metals (±Ag) (ranging from tens to tens of thousands ppm) and As (up to 267 ppm, with average contents of about 40 ppm). Arsenic is mostly partitioned in sulfides disseminated through the glassy groundmass rather than in solid solution with the glassy matrix. Remnants of the ore used for base metal and Ag smelting during the Middle Ages had the highest As contents (up to about 1000 ppm).     

Multi-methodological investigation of kunzite, hiddenite, alexandrite, elbaite and topaz, based on laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy and conventional analytical techniques for supporting mineralogical characterization

Gem-quality alexandrite, hiddenite and kunzite, elbaite and topaz minerals were characterized through a multi-methodological investigation based on EMPA-WDS, LA-ICP-MS, and laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS). With respect to the others, the latter technique enables a simultaneous multi-elemental composition without any sample preparation and the detection of light elements, such as Li, Be and B. The criteria for the choice of minerals were: (a) the presence of chromophore elements in minor contents and/or as traces; (b) the presence of light lithophile elements (Li, Be and B); (c) different crystal chemistry complexity. The results show that LIBS can be employed in mineralogical studies for the identification and characterization of minerals, and as a fast screening method to determine the chemical composition, including the chromophore and light lithophile elements.     

Natural hexavalent chromium in groundwaters interacting with ophiolitic rocks

Thirty of the 58 groundwaters sampled in September-October 2000 in the study area (La Spezia Province, Italy) have Mg-HCO₃ to Ca-HCO₃ composition, undetectable Cr(III) contents, and virtually equal concentrations of total dissolved Cr and Cr(VI). Therefore, dissolved Cr is present in toto as Cr(VI), with concentrations of 5-73 ppb. These values are above the maximum permissible level for drinking waters (5 ppb). Local ophiolites, especially serpentinites and ultramafites, are Cr-rich and represent a Cr source for groundwaters. However, since Cr is present as Cr(III) in rock-forming minerals, its release to the aqueous solution requires oxidation of Cr(III) to Cr(VI). This can be performed by different electron acceptors, including Mn oxides, H₂O₂, gaseous O₂, and perhaps Fe(III) oxyhydroxides. Based on this evidence and due to the absence of anthropogenic Cr sources, the comparatively high Cr(VI) concentrations measured in the waters of the study area are attributed to natural pollution.     

A basal slip model for Lagrangian finite element simulations of 3D landslides

A Lagrangian numerical approach for the simulation of rapid landslide runouts is presented and discussed. The simulation approach is based on the so‐called Particle Finite Element Method. The moving soil mass is assumed to obey a rigid‐viscoplastic, non‐dilatant Drucker–Prager constitutive law, which is cast in the form of a regularized, pressure‐sensitive Bingham model. Unlike in classical formulations of computational fluid mechanics, where no‐slip boundary conditions are assumed, basal slip boundary conditions are introduced to account for the specific nature of the landslide‐basal surface interface. The basal slip conditions are formulated in the form of modified Navier boundary conditions, with a pressure‐sensitive threshold. A special mixed Eulerian–Lagrangian formulation is used for the elements on the basal interface to accommodate the new slip conditions into the Particle Finite Element Method framework. To avoid inconsistencies in the presence of complex shapes of the basal surface, the no‐flux condition through the basal surface is relaxed using a penalty approach. The proposed model is validated by simulating both laboratory tests and a real large‐scale problem, and the critical role of the basal slip is elucidated. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CLIMATIC VARIATIONS IN THE COASTALZONE- COMPARISON BETWEEN THE PORIVER DELTA (ADRIATIC SEA, ITALY) ANDTHE HUANGHE RIVER DELTA (BOHAI SEA,CHINA)

The aim of this work is to research the influence of natural climatic changes on the evolution of the coastal zone in modern times and the possible implication of human activities on the configuration of the present coastline.Comparison of data of two very far and different areas , the Po River delta, Adriatic Sea and the Huanghe River delta, Bohai Sea, reveals the planetary diffusion of climatic fluctuations and their effects on coastal evolution .