A thermo‐mechanical model for the catastrophic collapse of large landslides

In this work, a new thermo‐mechanical model is developed, applicable to large‐scale, deep‐seated landslides consisting of a coherent mass sliding on a thin clayey layer. The considered time window is that of catastrophic acceleration, starting at incipient failure and ending when the acquired displacement and velocity are such that the sliding material begins to break up into pieces. The model accounts for temperature rise in the slip zone due to the heat produced by friction, leading to water expansion, thermoplastic collapse of the soil skeleton, and subsequent increase of pore water pressure. The model incorporates the processes of heat production and diffusion, pore pressure generation and diffusion, and an advanced constitutive law for the thermo‐mechanical behavior of soil. An analysis of the Vajont landslide is presented as an example. A sensitivity analysis shows that friction softening is the mechanism most affecting the timescale of the final collapse of a slide, but also that the mechanism of thermal pressurization alone can cause a comparably catastrophic dynamic evolution. It is also shown that, all other factors being equal, thermo‐mechanical collapse will cause thicker slides to accelerate faster than shallow ones. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Detection of Miocene saucer‐shaped sills (offshore Senegal) via integrated interpretation of seismic,magnetic and gravity data

The Atlantic margin offshore Senegal has been explored by seismic reflection and GRAV‐MAG surveys. High‐amplitude, laterally transgressive seismic reflectors are found to coincide with gravimetric and magnetic highs. Once seismic data are integrated with potential fields modelling, these reflectors can be safely interpreted as saucer‐shaped igneous sills, up to some hundreds of metres thick, some km wide. The occurrence of hydrothermal vent complexes and forced folds in the stratigraphic sequence above the sills constrain the intrusion age to the Miocene. Field observations and in‐situ magnetic susceptibility measurements of Oligocene–Miocene and Quaternary igneous rocks emplaced in coastal Senegal support this interpretation.     

Job losses and political acceptability of climate policies: why the ‘job-killing’ argument is so persistent and how to overturn it

Political acceptability is an essential issue in choosing appropriate climate policies. Sociologists and behavioural scientists recognize the importance of selecting environmental policies that have broad political support, while economists tend to compare different instruments first on the basis of their efficiency, and then by assessing their distributional impacts and thus their political acceptability. This paper examines case-study and empirical evidence that the job losses ascribed (correctly or incorrectly) to climate policies have substantial impacts on the willingness of affected workers to support these policies. In aggregate, the costs of these losses are significantly smaller than the benefits, both in terms of health and, probably, of labour market outcomes, but the losses are concentrated in specific areas, sectors and social groups that have been hit hard by the great recession and international competition. Localized contextual effects, such as peer group pressure, and politico-economic factors, such as weakened unions and tightened government budgets, amplify the strength and the persistence of the ‘job-killing’ argument. Compensating for the effects of climate policies on ‘left-behind’ workers appears to be the key priority to increase the political acceptability of such policies, but the design of compensatory policies poses serious challenges.

Key policy insights

• Public perception of, and support for, climate policies is substantially reduced in the presence of large negative shocks, especially job losses.

• Climate policies can be perceived as negative for employment, especially in areas where polluting industries represent a large share of employment and in occupations and sectors already damaged by globalization and automation.

• Policymakers should distinguish between small and large distributional effects of climate policies, and find the appropriate combination of revenue recycling schemes, industrial and retraining policies as well as compensation packages to increase the support for such policies.

     

The MgCr2O4–MgFe2O4 solid solution series: effects of octahedrally coordinated Fe3+ on T–O bond lengths

The influence on the spinel structure of Fe³⁺ → Cr substitution was studied in flux-grown synthetic single crystals of the magnesiochromite–magnesioferrite (MgCr₂O₄–MgFe₂O₄) solid solution series. Samples were analysed by single-crystal X-ray diffraction, electron microprobe analyses, optical absorption and Mössbauer spectroscopy. With the exception of iron-poor samples (3–12 mol-% MgFe₂O₄), optical absorption and Mössbauer spectra show that iron occurs almost exclusively as trivalent Fe in the present samples. A very intense and broad absorption band at ca 7,800 cm^?1 dominates the optical absorption spectra of samples with higher Fe-contents. The appearance of this band is related to a distinct structural disorder of Fe³⁺ and a development of magnetic ordering as demonstrated by Mössbauer spectra. Profound composition-related changes are observed in the Mössbauer spectra, which are magnetically unsplit in the range 2–41 mol-% magnesioferrite, but become magnetically split in the range 59–100 mol-% magnesioferrite. Structural parameters a ₀ and M–O increase with magnesioferrite content and inversion degree, while u and T–O decrease. Our study confirms the previously reported (Lavina et al. 2002) influence of Fe³⁺ at the M site on T–O bond lengths in the spinel structure.     

Comparing predictive capability of statistical and deterministic methods for landslide susceptibility mapping: a case study in the northern Apennines (Reggio Emilia Province, Italy)

Statistical and deterministic methods are widely used in geographic information system based landslide susceptibility mapping. This paper compares the predictive capability of three different models, namely the Weight of Evidence, the Fuzzy Logic and SHALSTAB, for producing shallow earth slide susceptibility maps, to be included as informative layers in land use planning at a local level. The test site is an area of about 450 km² in the northern Apennines of Italy where, in April 2004, rainfall combined with snowmelt triggered hundreds of shallow earth slides that damaged roads and other infrastructure. An inventory of the landslides triggered by the event was obtained from interpretation of aerial photos dating back to May 2004. The pre-existence of mapped landslides was then checked using earlier aerial photo coverage. All the predictive models were run on the same set of geo-environmental causal factors: soil type, soil thickness, land cover, possibility of deep drainage through the bedrock, slope angle, and upslope contributing area. Model performance was assessed using a threshold-independent approach (the ROC plot). Results show that global accuracy is as high as 0.77 for both statistical models, while it is only 0.56 for SHALSTAB. Besides the limited quality of input data over large areas, the relatively poorer performance of the deterministic model maybe also due to the simplified assumptions behind the hydrological component (steady-state slope parallel flow), which can be considered unsuitable for describing the hydrologic behavior of clay slopes, that are widespread in the study area.     

Gezira Scheme between state and market: some remarks on the privatization of irrigation in Sudan

This paper is a study of so-called privatization of the great Sudanese Gezira Scheme, under the structural and budgetary problems of the country. Nothwithstanding the official declaration, in reality privatization affected the project just in nominal way. Indeed, two factors play against it: the resistance of the State, which wants to hold the management of the national strategic resources, and the resistance of the territory itself which — as autopoietic system — reacts against any attempt to change its own structure. The islamic renewal(tajdid) can be considered as a way to solve the dilemma between development and social consent, under these new conditions.