Establishing a threshold for rainfall-induced landslides by a kinetic energy–duration relationship

Many investigators have attempted to define the threshold of landslide failure, that is, the level of the selected climatic variable above which a rainfall-induced landslide occurs. Intensity–duration (I–d) relationships are the most common type of empirical thresholds proposed in the literature for predicting landslide occurrence induced by rainfall. Recent studies propose the use of the kinetic power per unit volume of rainfall (J m⁻² mm⁻¹) to quantify the threshold of landslides induced by rainfall. In this paper, the relationship between rainfall duration and kinetic power corresponding to landslides triggered by rain was used to propose a new approach to define the threshold for predicting landslide occurrence. In particular, for the first time, a kinetic power per unit volume of rainfall–duration relationship is proposed for defining the minimum threshold needed for landslide failure. This new method can be applied using commonly used relationship for estimating the kinetic power per unit volume of rainfall and a new equation based on the measured raindrop size distribution. The applicability of this last method was tested using the data of rainfall intensity, duration and median volume diameter for 51 landslides in Taiwan. For the 51 landslides, the comparison between the measured pairs' kinetic power–duration and all selected relationships demonstrated that the equation based on the measured raindrop size distribution is the best method to define the landslide occurrence threshold, as it is both a process-oriented approach and is characterized by the best statistical performance. This last method has also the advantage to allow the forecasting of landslide hazard before the end of the rainfall event, since the rainfall kinetic power threshold value can be exceeded for a time interval less than the event duration.     

Complexity‐reduction modelling for assessing the macro‐scale patterns of historical soil moisture in the Euro‐Mediterranean region

Complexity‐reduction modelling can be useful for increasing the understanding of how the climate affects basin soil moisture response upon historical times not covered by detailed hydrological data. For this purpose, here is presented and assessed an empirical regression‐based model, the European Soil Moisture Empirical Downscaling (ESMED), in which different climatic variables, easily available on the web, are addressed for simplifying the inherent complexity in the long‐time studies. To accommodate this simplification, the Palmer Drought Severity Index, the precipitation, the elevation and the geographical location were used as input data in the ESMED model for predicting annual soil moisture budget. The test area was a large region including central Europe and Mediterranean countries, and the spatial resolution was initially set at 50 km. ESMED model calibration was made according to the soil moisture values retrieved from the Terrestrial Water Budget Data archive by selecting randomly 285 grid points (out of 2606). Once parameterized, ESMED model was performed at validation stage both spatially and temporally. The spatial validation was made for the grid points not selected in the calibration stage while the comparison with the soil moisture outputs of the Global Land Data Assimilation System–NOAH10 simulations upon the period 1950–2010 was carried out for the temporal validation. Moreover, ESMED results were found to be in good agreement with a root‐zone soil moisture product obtained from active and passive microwave sensors from various satellite missions. ESMED model was thus found to be reliable for both the temporal and spatial validations and, hence, it might represent a useful tool to characterize the long‐term dynamics of soil moisture–weather interaction. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application and validation of bivariate GIS-based landslide susceptibility assessment for the Vitravo river catchment (Calabria,south Italy)

The Calabria (Southern Italy) region is characterized by many geological hazards among which landslides, due to the geological, geomorphological, and climatic characteristics, constitute one of the major cause of significant and widespread damage. The present work aims to exploit a bivariate statistics-based approach for drafting a landslide susceptibility map in a specific scenario of the region (the Vitravo River catchment) to provide a useful and easy tool for future land planning. Landslides have been detected through air-photo interpretation and field surveys, by identifying both the landslide detachment zones (LDZ) and landslide bodies; a geospatial database of predisposing factors has been constructed using the ESRI ArcView 3.2 GIS. The landslide susceptibility has been assessed by computing the weighting values (Wi) for each class of the predisposing factors (lithology, proximity to fault and drainage line, land use, slope angle, aspect, plan curvature), thus evaluating the distribution of the landslide detachment zones within each class. The extracted predisposing factors maps have then been re-classified on the basis of the calculated weighting values (Wi) and by means of overlay processes. Finally, the landslide susceptibility map has been considered by five classes. It has been determined that a high percentage (61%) of the study area is characterized by a high to very high degree of susceptibility; clay and marly lithologies, and slope exceeding 20° in inclination would be much prone to landsliding. Furthermore, in order to ascertain the proposed landslide susceptibility estimate, a validation procedure has been carried out, by splitting the landslide detachment zones into two groups: a training and a validation set. By means of the training set, the susceptibility map has first been produced; then, it has been compared with the validation set. As a result, a great majority of LDZ-validation set (85%) would be located in highly and very highly susceptible areas. The predictive power of the model is considered reliable, since more than 50% of the LDZ fall into 20% of the most susceptible areas. The reliability of the susceptibility map is also suggested by computing the SCAI index, true positive and false positive rates; nevertheless, the most susceptible areas are overestimated. As a whole, the results indicate that landslide susceptibility assessment based on a bivariate statistics-based method in a GIS environment may be useful for land planning policy, especially when considering its cost/benefit ratio and the need of using an easy tool.     

Large dyke intrusion and small eruption: The December 24, 2018 Mt. Etna eruption imaged by Sentinel‐1 data

On December 24th, Mt. Etna volcano underwent a seismic crisis beneath the summit and upper southern flank of the volcano, accompanied by significant ash emission. Eruptive fissures opened at the base of summit craters, propagating SE‐wards. This lateral eruption lasted until December 27th. Despite the small eruption, seismic swarm and ground deformation were very strong. Sentinel‐1 interferograms show a wide and intense ground deformation with some additional features related to volcano‐tectonic structures. We inverted DInSAR data to characterise the magma intrusion. The resulting model indicates that a large dyke intruded but aborted its upraise at about the sea level; however, this big intrusion stretched the edifice, promoting the opening of the eruptive fissures fed by a shallower small dyke, and activating also several faults. This model highlights that a big intrusion beneath a structurally complex volcano represents a main issue even if the eruption is aborted.     

An ecotoxicological protocol with caged mussels, Mytilus galloprovincialis, for monitoring the impact of an offshore platform in the Adriatic Sea

An ecotoxicological protocol with caged mussels, Mytilus galloprovincialis, was developed to evaluate the potential impact of an offshore gas platform in the central Adriatic Sea. Reference organisms were collected on a seasonal basis from an unpolluted site and transplanted for four weeks in both the sampling area and to the investigated platform. Chemical analyses of trace metals in mussel tissues were integrated with a multi-biomarker approach for the early detection of biological responses at several cellular targets. Induction of metallothioneins, peroxisomal proliferation and activity of acetylcholinesterase were measured as markers for specific classes of chemicals. Special attention was given to oxyradical metabolism and appearance of oxidative-mediated toxicity to reveal a more general onset of cellular disturbance. In addition to individual antioxidants (superoxide dismutase, catalase, glutathione S-transferases, glutathione reductase, Se-dependent and Se-independent glutathione peroxidases, and levels of total glutathione), the total oxyradical scavenging capacity (TOSC) allowed a quantification of the overall capability to neutralize specific forms of intracellular reactive oxygen species (ROS; i.e. peroxyl and hydroxyl radicals). Cellular damages were evaluated as lysosomal destabilization (membrane stability, accumulation of lipofuscin and neutral lipids), lipid peroxidation products (malondialdehyde) and DNA integrity (strand breaks and micronuclei); the air survival test was finally applied to evaluate the overall physiological condition of mussels. Concentration of trace metals (As, Ba, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn) revealed only limited variations in transplanted mussels during various experimental periods and such changes appeared partly related to natural fluctuations. Among biological responses, variations of antioxidants and lysosomal stability were confirmed as sensitive early warning signals for biological disturbance of both natural and anthropogenic origin. The presented protocol with caged mussels allowed marked biological effects caused by the investigated platform to be excluded, and represented a useful approach that is easy to extend for monitoring the impact of offshore activities in the Adriatic sea.     

Fault-generated mountain fronts in the central apennines (Central Italy): Geomorphological features and seismotectonic implications

The morphotectonic framework of the Central Apennines is given by faulted blocks bounded by normal faults, mostly trending NW–SE, NNW–SSE and NE–SW, which cut previous compressive structures. Such a structural setting is consistent with the focal mechanisms of the earthquakes which often occur in this area. In this paper, three lithologically different normal fault-generated mountain fronts are analysed in order to assess the relations between their geomorphic features and active tectonics. They border the Norcia depression (Sibillini Mts, Umbria), the Amatrice–Campotosto plateau (Laga Mts, Lazio) and the Fucino basin (Marsica Mts, Abruzzi). The Norcia depression is bounded by a N20°W trending normal fault to the east and by a parallel antithetic fault to the west. The main fault has a 1000 m throw and gives rise to a wide fault escarpment, characterized by: (1) sharp slope breaks due to low angle gravity faults; (2) important paleolandslides; and (3) several fault scarplets on the piedmont belt affecting Quaternary deposits. The Amatrice–Campotosto plateau is delimited by the western slope of Mt Gorzano which runs along a N20°W trending normal fault having a 1500m throw. Minor parallel faults dislocate Quaternary landforms. Large-scale massmovements also occur here. The Fucino basin was struck by the 1915 Avezzano earthquake (I=XI MCS) which produced extensive surface faulting along two parallel NW trending normal fault escarpments on the eastern border of the basin. There is paleoseismic evidence including buried gravity graben in Late Glacial gravels and tectonic dip-slip striations on Holocene calcitic crusts covering bedrock normal fault planes. These data suggest that active extensional tectonics plays a major role in the slope morphogenesis of the Central Apennines and they indicate the importance of geomorphic analysis in seismic zonation of this area.     

Debris-flow risk analysis in south Gargano watersheds (Southern-Italy)

This article describes a methodology to analyse debris-flow risk in the torrential watersheds of the southern hillside of Gargano (Puglia—Italy). The approach integrates a stability model that identifies the areas of potential shallow landslides in different meteorological conditions with a two-dimensional flood routing model that allows hazard mapping and GIS interface. The results were combined with a susceptibility map that was defined by analyzing the vulnerability conditions and the exposure of the alluvial fan. The models were calibrated on the 1972, July catastrophic event for which the distribution of rainstorm intensity was available. The geo-mechanical properties of the debris were studied by field surveys and laboratory tests while the sediment source areas and the shape of the alluvial cone were obtained using photo-aerial interpretation. The risk conditions of the areas under consideration were also investigated in order to plan and guide measures aimed at limiting the damage such hazards may cause.