Hazard and population vulnerability analysis: a step towards landslide risk assessment

In this paper, an attempt to analyse landslide hazard and vulnerability in the municipality of Pahuatlán, Puebla, Mexico, is presented. In order to estimate landslide hazard, the susceptibility,magnitude(area-velocity ratio) and landslide frequency of the area of interest were produced based on information derived from a geomorphological landslide inventory; the latter was generated by using very high resolution satellite stereo pairs along with information derived from other sources(Google Earth,aerial photographs and historical information).Estimations of landslide susceptibility were determined by combining four statistical techniques:(i) logistic regression,(ii) quadratic discriminant analysis,(iii) linear discriminant analysis, and(iv)neuronal networks. A Digital Elevation Model(DEM)of 10 m spatial resolution was used to extract the slope angle, aspect, curvature, elevation and relief.These factors, in addition to land cover, lithology anddistance to faults, were used as explanatory variables for the susceptibility models. Additionally, a Poisson model was used to estimate landslide temporal frequency, at the same time as landslide magnitude was obtained by using the relationship between landslide area and the velocity of movements. Then,due to the complexity of evaluating it, vulnerability of population was analysed by applying the Spatial Approach to Vulnerability Assessment(SAVE) model which considered levels of exposure, sensitivity and lack of resilience. Results were expressed on maps on which different spatial patterns of levels of landslide hazard and vulnerability were found for the inhabited areas. It is noteworthy that the lack of optimal methodologies to estimate and quantify vulnerability is more notorious than that of hazard assessments.Consequently, levels of uncertainty linked to landslide risk assessment remain a challenge to be addressed.     

Huygens probe entry trajectory and attitude estimated simultaneously with Titan atmospheric structure by Kalman filtering

Space probes entering planetary atmospheres are used for in situ study of their physical structures. During the entry phase aerodynamic forces exerted on the probe depend on atmospheric density. As a consequence accelerations measured by on-board sensors can be used to derive probe trajectory as well as atmospheric density, pressure and temperature profiles. In this work acceleration data acquired by the Huygens Atmospheric Structure Instrument (HASI) have been used to reconstruct the probe trajectory and the Titan's atmospheric structure from down to of altitude. An accurate six degree of freedom model of Huygens during the entry phase has been developed and a new reconstruction technique based on Kalman filtering is presented. This technique estimates simultaneously the probe trajectory, the attitude profile consistent with measured data and the atmospheric density, pressure and temperature.     

On the dependence ofQ metallicity index from basic parameters of stellar evolution

The possible dependence of Van den Bergh'sQ parameter on the mass distribution function in globular clusters is investigated. The resulting independence within the observational errors assures thatQ is available as index of the chemical composition and age of the clusters.     

Deriving drainage networks and catchment boundaries: a new methodology combining digital elevation data and environmental characteristics

Digital data on the position and characteristics of river networks and catchments are important for the analysis of pressures and impacts on water resources. GIS tools allow for the combined analysis of digital elevation data and environmental parameters in order to derive this kind of information. This article presents a new approach making use of medium-resolution digital elevation data (250-m grid cell size) and information on climate, vegetation cover, terrain morphology, soils and lithology to derive river networks and catchments over extended areas.In general, methods to extract channel networks at small scale use a constant threshold for the critical contributing area, independent of widely varying landscape conditions. As a consequence, the resulting drainage network does not reflect the natural variability in drainage density. To overcome this limitation, a classification of the landscape is proposed. The various data available are analysed in an integrated approach in order to characterise the terrain with respect to its ability to develop lower or higher drainage densities, resulting in five landscape types. For each landscape type, the slope–area relationship is then derived and the critical contributing area is determined. In the subsequent channel extraction, a dedicated critical contributing area threshold is used for each landscape type.The described methodology has been developed and tested for the territory of Italy. Results have been validated comparing the derived data with river and catchment data sets from other sources and at varying scales. Good agreement both in terms of river superimposition and drainage density could be demonstrated.     

Mapping of Land-Atmosphere Heat Fluxes and Surface Parameters with Remote Sensing Data

A variational data assimilation scheme is used to infer two key parameters ofthe surface energy balance that control the partitioning of available energy intolatent, sensible, and ground heat fluxes (LE, H, and G). Remotely sensedland surface temperature (LST) is the principal data source. Maps ofdiurnal energy balance components are presented for a basin with varied landcover (Arno Basin, Italy) for a 18-day period in July 1996.Given available energy, the major unknown (dimensionless) parameters requiredfor partitioning among fluxes are: (1) Landscape effects on near-surfaceturbulence as captured by the bulk heat transfer coefficient C_BN underneutral conditions and (2) surface control of the relative magnitudes of LEand H as represented by the evaporative fraction E_F. The data assimilationscheme merges 1.1-km resolution remotely sensed LST images (based onoptical, thermal and microwave measurements from two different satelliteplatforms) into a parsimonious model of heat diffusion. Both the measurementsand the model predictions are considered uncertain. Posterior error statisticsthat represent uncertainty of the estimated parameters are also derived.Maps of C_BN show spatial patterns consistent with the dominant land useand basin physiography. Daily maps of E_F exhibit spatial variationscorresponding to land cover and land use – the day-to-day variations inE_F show fluctuations consistent with rain events and drydowns experiencedduring the period. Based on these parameters and available environmentalvariables, maps of diurnal LE and H may be produced (in this paper daytimeLE maps are reported).The application demonstrates that remotely sensed land surface temperaturesequences contain significant amount of information of the partitioning ofavailable energy among the fluxes. The variational data assimilation frameworkis shown to be an efficient and parsimonious approach without reliance onempirical relationships such as those based on vegetation indices.     

Normal faulting, transcrustal permeability and seismogenesis in the Apennines (Italy)

Late Pliocene–Pleistocene tectonic evolution of the Apennines is driven by progressive eastward migration of extensional downfaulting superposed onto the Late Miocene–Early Pliocene compressional thrust belt. This process has led to distinct structural domains that show decreasing transcrustal permeability from conditions of pervasive mixing between deep and surface fluids in the hinterland (west) to conditions of restricted fluid circulation and overpressuring in the foreland (east). At present, the highest rates of normal faulting and the strongest seismicity occur in the area bounded by stretched, highly permeable crust to the west and thick, poorly permeable crust to the east. In this area, the seismogenic sources of the largest earthquakes (5<M_s<7) are potentially related to mature normal faults that deeply penetrate thick brittle upper crust, and act as transient high-permeability channels during seismic activity. In this framework, it is plausible that domains of overpressuring govern progressive inception of normal faulting and fluid redistribution in the crust, leading to eastward migration of the belt of maximum seismicity with time.     

Current problems on asymptotic branch stars

An effort is made to select, from the available observational data, information concerning the asymptotic branch stars. Particular care is devoted to derive luminosity functions for these stars in clusters representative of selected classes. Some theoretical predictions are briefly made. It is stressed that, from a theoretical point of view, the comparison between the one-shell H-burning evolutionary characteristics and the corresponding ones for the A.B. phase could be expected to provide a powerful means of investigation.

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Sommario Sulla base dei dati osservativi disponibili sono raccolte ed esaminate le possibili informazioni riguardanti la fase di braccio asintotico. In particolare vengono investigate le funzioni di luminosità relative a questa fase evolutiva, e ne viene tentato un inquadramento nella classificazione multidimensionale degli ammassi globulari recentemente proposta. Sono fornite alcune valutazioni teoriche, ed è messo in evidenza come il confronto delle caratteristiche evolutive delle fasi di bruciamento ad una (H) e due (H, He) shell potrebbe rivelarsi come un potente mezzo di investigazione.

     

Discussion to: ‘Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses’ by T. Carlà, E. Intrieri,F. Di Traglia,T. Nolesini,G. Gigli and N. Casagli

The paper ‘Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses’ by T. Carlà, E. Intrieri, F. Di Traglia, T. Nolesini, G. Gigli and N. Casagli deals with a sensitive topic for landslide risk management. Exploring the pre-failure behaviour of four different case histories, the authors proposed standard procedures for the application of the inverse velocity method (INV, Fukuzono 1985). Specifically, they suggested guidelines for the filtering of velocity data and an original and simple approach to automatically set the first and the second alarm thresholds using the inverse velocity method. The present discussion addresses three different topics: (1) data filter selection according to the features of monitoring instrument; (2) the importance of data sampling frequency for the forecasting analysis and (3) the influence of the starting point (SP in this discussion) for the application of INV analysis. Moreover, based on this matter, a new method is proposed to update the INV analysis on an ongoing basis.