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991.
Franck Bourrier Luuk Dorren Franois Nicot Frdric Berger Flix Darve 《Geomorphology》2009,110(3-4):68-79
The accuracy of rockfall trajectory simulations depends to a large extent on the calculation of the rebound of falling boulders on different parts of a slope where rockfalls could occur. The models commonly used for rebound calculation are based on restitution coefficients, which can only be calibrated subjectively in the field. To come up with a robust and objective procedure for rebound calculation, a stochastic impact model associated with an objective field data collection method was developed and tested in this study. The aims of this work were to assess the adequacy of this approach and to evaluate the minimum amount of field data required to obtain simulation results with a satisfactory level of predictability. To achieve these objectives, the rebound calculation procedure developed was integrated into a three-dimensional rockfall simulation model, and the simulated results were compared with those obtained from field rockfall experiments. For rocky slopes, the simulations satisfactorily predict the experimental results. This approach is advantageous because it combines precise modelling of the mechanisms involved in the rebound and of their related variability with an objective field data collection procedure which basically only requires collecting the mean size of soil rocks. The approach proposed in this study therefore constitutes an excellent basis for the objective probabilistic assessment of rockfall hazard. 相似文献
992.
Stochastic multi-site generation of daily weather data 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Malika Khalili François Brissette Robert Leconte 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(6):837-849
Spatial autocorrelation is a correlation between the values of a single variable, considering their geographical locations.
This concept has successfully been used for multi-site generation of daily precipitation data (Khalili et al. in J Hydrometeorol
8(3):396–412, 2007). This paper presents an extension of this approach. It aims firstly to obtain an accurate reproduction
of the spatial intermittence property in synthetic precipitation amounts, and then to extend the multi-site approach to the
generation of daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and solar radiation data. Monthly spatial exponential functions
have been developed for each weather station according to the spatial dependence of the occurrence processes over the watershed,
in order to fulfill the spatial intermittence condition in the synthetic time series of precipitation amounts. As was the
case for the precipitation processes, the multi-site generation of daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and solar
radiation data is realized using spatially autocorrelated random numbers. These random numbers are incorporated into the weakly
stationary generating process, as with the Richardson weather generator, and with no modifications made. Suitable spatial
autocorrelations of random numbers allow the reproduction of the observed daily spatial autocorrelations and monthly interstation
correlations. The Peribonca River Basin watershed is used to test the performance of the proposed approaches. Results indicate
that the spatial exponential functions succeeded in reproducing an accurate spatial intermittence in the synthetic precipitation
amounts. The multi-site generation approach was successfully applied for the weather data, which were adequately generated,
while maintaining efficient daily spatial autocorrelations and monthly interstation correlations. 相似文献
993.
High-resolution models and realistic boundary conditions are necessary to reproduce the mesoscale dynamics of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). In order to achieve this, we use a nested configuration of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), where the Atlantic TOPAZ system provides lateral boundary conditions to a high-resolution (5 km) model of the GOM . However, such models cannot provide accurate forecasts of mesoscale variability, such as eddy shedding event, without data assimilation. Eddy shedding events involve the rapid growth of nonlinear instabilities that are difficult to forecast. The known sources of error are the initial state, the atmospheric condition, and the lateral boundary condition. We present here the benefit of using a small ensemble forecast (10 members) for providing confidence indices for the prediction, while using a data assimilation scheme based on optimal interpolation. Our set of initial states is provided by using different values of a data assimilation parameter, while the atmospheric and lateral boundary conditions are perturbed randomly. Changes in the data assimilation parameter appear to control the main position of the large features of the GOM in the initial state, whereas changes in the boundary conditions (lateral and atmospheric) appears to control the propagation of cyclonic eddies at their boundary. The ensemble forecast is tested for the shedding of Eddy Yankee (2006). The Loop Current and eddy fronts observed from ocean color and altimetry are almost always within the estimated positions from the ensemble forecast. The ensemble spread is correlated both in space and time to the forecast error, which implies that confidence indices can be provided in addition to the forecast. Finally, the ensemble forecast permits the optimization of a data assimilation parameter for best performance at a given forecast horizon. 相似文献
994.
Naki Akçar Susan Ivy-Ochs Vasily Alfimov İsmail Ö. Yılmaz Andreas Schachner Demir Altıner Vural Yavuz Christian Schlüchter 《Quaternary Geochronology》2009,4(6):533-540
We have measured 36Cl in three rock surfaces of the Yenicekale building complex in Hattusha (Bo?azköy, Turkey). Hattusha was the capital of Hittite Empire which lasted from about 1650/1600 to 1200 BC. At Yenicekale, Hittite masons flattened the summit of an outcropping limestone knoll to form an artificial platform as the foundation for a building. Next they built a circuit wall along the lateral precipices of the flattened bedrock platform. We took one sample from the limestone bedrock platform and two samples from limestone building blocks of the circuit wall for cosmogenic 36Cl analysis. Calculated exposure ages are 20 ± 1 ka for the sample from the bedrock platform and 24 ± 1 ka and 52 ± 2 ka for the circuit wall blocks. These exposure ages are significantly older than the age expected based on the estimated time of construction between 3.2 ka and 3.7 ka. We conclude that the sampled surfaces contain significant inherited cosmogenic 36Cl. We cannot directly determine exposure ages for the building complex based on these three samples. On the other hand we may use the measured concentrations to determine how much of the rock was removed from the platform during flattening. To this end we modeled the variation of 36Cl production with depth at Yenicekale using the results from the bedrock sample. We conclude that the Hittite masons removed only around 3 m from top of the limestone block. This means that the volume of rock removed from the bedrock platform is significantly less than the volume in the circuit wall atop the platform. They did not gain enough rock from this flattening to make the building. In agreement with this, the first results of our detailed microfacies analysis indicate that many of the building blocks are not of the same facies as the underlying limestone and must have been quarried elsewhere. Although we were not able to exposure date the Yenicekale complex due to the presence of inherited 36Cl, our data suggest that Hittite masons excavated (most of) the building stones not at Yenicekale, but in quarries outside of Hattusha and then transported them to the construction site. These quarries have not yet been identified. 相似文献
995.
Dorthe Klitgaard Kristensen Tine L. Rasmussen Nalan Koç 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2013,42(3):798-813
The sediment core NP05‐71GC, retrieved from 360 m water depth south of Kvitøya, northwestern Barents Sea, was investigated for the distribution of benthic and planktic foraminifera, stable isotopes and sedimentological parameters to reconstruct palaeoceanographic changes and the growth and retreat of the Svalbard–Barents Sea Ice Sheet during the last ~16 000 years. The purpose is to gain better insight into the timing and variability of ocean circulation, climatic changes and ice‐sheet behaviour during the deglaciation and the Holocene. The results show that glaciomarine sedimentation commenced c. 16 000 a BP, indicating that the ice sheet had retreated from its maximum position at the shelf edge around Svalbard before that time. A strong subsurface influx of Atlantic‐derived bottom water occurred from 14 600 a BP during the Bølling and Allerød interstadials and lasted until the onset of the Younger Dryas cooling. In the Younger Dryas cold interval, the sea surface was covered by near‐permanent sea ice. The early Holocene, 11 700–11 000 a BP, was influenced by meltwater, followed by a strong inflow of highly saline and chilled Atlantic Water until c. 8600 a BP. From 8600 to 7600 a BP, faunal and isotopic evidence indicates cooling and a weaker flow of the Atlantic Water followed by a stronger influence of Atlantic Water until c. 6000 a BP. Thereafter, the environment generally deteriorated. Our results imply that (i) the deglaciation occurred earlier in this area than previously thought, and (ii) the Younger Dryas ice sheet was smaller than indicated by previous reconstructions. 相似文献
996.
Field evidence of palaeoglacial records in the Verçenik valley in the Eastern Black Sea Mountains was examined and 19 samples for surface exposure dating with cosmogenic 10Be were collected with the aim of increasing knowledge on the amplitude and frequency of palaeoglacier advances in Anatolia. Glacial erosional features were mapped and the flow directions of the palaeoglaciers were determined. The Verçenik palaeoglacier advanced before 26.1 k ± 1.2 k yr. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) advance continued until 18.8 k ±1.0 k yr. The Verçenik palaeoglacier collapsed during Termination I. After 17.7 k ± 0.8 k yr there was no more ice in the main valley. The Verçenik palaeoglacier most probably then separated into five small glaciers that were restricted to the tributary valleys. Among these, the Hem?in palaeoglacier completed its recession around 15.7 k ± 0.8 k yr. On the basis of glacial erosion features, a Lateglacial glacier advance can be identified. Evidence of the Little Ice Age advance appears to be absent. The results from this valley system seem to be consistent with the first results from the adjacent Kavron valley and with the Anatolian LGM palaeoclimate, the sea surface temperature minima in the western Mediterranean, the deposition of red clay layers in the Black Sea and deposition of the Heinrich‐1 layer in the North Atlantic. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
997.
Aquatic river habitat types have been characterized and classified for over five decades based on hydrogeomorphic and ecological variables. However, few studies considered the generation of underwater sound as a unique property of aquatic habitats, and therefore as a potential information source for freshwater organisms. In this study, five common habitat types along 12 rivers in Switzerland (six replicates per habitat type) were acoustically compared. Acoustic signals were recorded by submerging two parallel hydrophones and were analysed by calculating the energetic mean as well as the temporal variance of ten octave bands (31·5 Hz–16 kHz). Concurrently, each habitat type was characterized by hydraulic and geomorphic variables, respectively. The average relative roughness, velocity‐to‐depth ratio, and Froude number explained most of the variance of the acoustic signals created in different habitat types. The average relative roughness predominantly affected middle frequencies (63 Hz–1 kHz), while streambed sediment transport increased high‐frequency sound pressure levels (2–16 kHz) as well as the temporal variability of the recorded signal. Each aquatic habitat type exhibited a distinct acoustic signature or soundscape. These soundscapes may be a crucial information source for many freshwater organisms about their riverine environment. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
998.
Patrycja Jernas Dorthe Klitgaard Kristensen Katrine Husum Lindsay Wilson Nalan Koç 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2013,42(1):236-255
The western and northern Svalbard continental margins (European Arctic) are environmentally sensitive areas that are dependent on the northward flow of Atlantic Water, the largest heat source of the Arctic Ocean. Two marine sediment records from the Svalbard shelf: Kongsfjorden Trough and Hinlopen Trough, were analysed with regard to the benthic foraminiferal content and lithology to assess the palaeoceanographic evolution during the past two millennia with decadal to multi‐decadal temporal resolution. In both records, an overall gradual decrease of E. excavatum f. clavata during the past two millennia reflects a change towards generally warmer and less glacially influenced conditions, presumably related to enhanced inflow of Atlantic Water (AW). The influence of AW also varied on centennial time scales, as evidenced by faunal and sedimentary shifts occurring almost synchronously at both locations. The period from AD 700 to 1200 was characterized by enhanced inflow of AW, followed by the development of highly productive oceanographic fronts at both localities from AD 1200 to 1500. In contrast, the subsequent interval (AD 1500–1900) shows particularly harsh conditions in the Hinlopen Trough, with significantly reduced foraminiferal flux and sediment input related to perennial sea ice cover. In Kongsfjorden, less severe conditions were observed, indicating that the AW advection continued. The synchronicity of changes in both records demonstrates the effect of the variability in inflow of AW to the Svalbard region during the past 2000 years. Moreover, the records seem to follow climate anomalies, for example the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period, found in the North Atlantic realm. 相似文献
999.
Sousa OV Macrae A Menezes FG Gomes NC Vieira RH Mendonça-Hagler LC 《Marine pollution bulletin》2006,52(12):1725-1734
The effects of shrimp farm effluents on bacterial communities in mangroves have been infrequently reported. Classic and molecular biology methods were used to survey bacterial communities from four mangroves systems. Water temperature, salinity, pH, total heterotrophic bacteria and maximum probable numbers of Vibrio spp. were investigated. Genetic profiles of bacterial communities were also characterized by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification of eubacterial and Vibrio 16S rDNA using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE). Highest heterotrophic counts were registered in the mangrove not directly polluted by shrimp farming. The Enterobacteriaceae and Chryseomonas luteola dominated the heterotrophic isolates. Vibrio spp. pathogenic to humans and shrimps were identified. Eubacterial genetic profiles suggest a shared community structure independent of mangrove system. Vibrio genetic profiles were mangrove specific. Neither microbial counts nor genetic profiling revealed a significant decrease in species richness associated with shrimp farm effluent. The complex nature of mangrove ecosystems and their microbial communities is discussed. 相似文献
1000.
Marques AN Monna F da Silva Filho EV Fernex FE Fernando Lamego Simões Filho F 《Marine pollution bulletin》2006,52(5):532-539
Zn and Cd concentrations, stable lead isotopes and 210Pb-derived chronology were determined in a sediment core sampled at Sepetiba Bay (South-eastern Brazil). During the last decades, the bay’s watershed has been modified by the increase of industrial activities and human interventions. In particular, Zn and Cd ore treatment plants were built near the coast in 1960 and 1970, respectively, and water has been diverted from the adjacent Paraíba do Sul River watershed since 1950. The core collected at shallow depth near the industrial area exhibits four successive events: (i) at 50 cm depth, a change in the 206Pb/207Pb ratio from about 1.162 to more than 1.18 might be the result of the São Francisco Channel opening and water diversion from Paraíba do Sul river; (ii) at 40 cm depth, Zn concentration starts to increase (up to 0.8 mg g−1) (iii) above 30 cm depth, relatively high Cd concentrations (up to 1.6 μg g−1) are observed and (iv) at 16 cm depth, change in unsupported 210Pb slope is probably related to a waste dam built to prevent strong metal contamination in the bay. Sediment accumulation rates evaluated by Zn and Cd profiles used as time-markers are higher than those calculated from 210Pb-based chronology models. Using the constant initial concentration (CIC) model both events are supposed to date back to about 1884 and 1902, respectively, while using the constant rate of supply (CRS) model it shifts to about 1925 and 1935. Such discrepancies are probably assigned to the fact that these models do not take into account site-specific local sedimentation dynamics. In the study area, particles deposition seems to be controlled by enrichment with unsupported 210Pb transported by runoff from a mangrove flat bank. Chronology derived from a model that assumes an exponential increase of the initial 210Pb activity fits well with the estimated rates obtained from historical events. 相似文献