Comparisons of two global built area land cover datasets in methods to disaggregate human population in eleven countries from the global South

ABSTRACT

Mapping built land cover at unprecedented detail has been facilitated by increasing availability of global high-resolution imagery and image processing methods. These advances in urban feature extraction and built-area detection can refine the mapping of human population densities, especially in lower income countries where rapid urbanization and changing population is accompanied by frequently out-of-date or inaccurate census data. However, in these contexts it is unclear how best to use built-area data to disaggregate areal, count-based census data. Here we tested two methods using remotely sensed, built-area land cover data to disaggregate population data. These included simple, areal weighting and more complex statistical models with other ancillary information. Outcomes were assessed across eleven countries, representing different world regions varying in population densities, types of built infrastructure, and environmental characteristics. We found that for seven of 11 countries a Random Forest-based, machine learning approach outperforms simple, binary dasymetric disaggregation into remotely-sensed built areas. For these more complex models there was little evidence to support using any single built land cover input over the rest, and in most cases using more than one built-area data product resulted in higher predictive capacity. We discuss these results and implications for future population modeling approaches.     

Dispersion Modelling of the Kilauea Plume

Emissions from the Kilauea volcano pose significant environmental and health risksto the Hawaiian community. This paper describes progress toward simulating theconcentration and dispersion of plumes of volcanic aerosol after they emanate from thePu'u O'o vent of the Kilauea volcano.In order to produce an accurate regional forecast of the concentration and dispersionof volcanic aerosol, the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory(HY-SPLIT) model was used. Wind fields and thermodynamic data from the non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Spectral Model (MSM) were employed as input for theHY-SPLIT model. A combination of satellite remote sensing, aircraft, and ground-based observations collected during a field experiment was used to validate the model simulation of aerosol distribution.The HY-SPLIT model shows skill in reproducing the plume shape, orientation, and concentration gradients as deduced from satellite images of aerosol optical depth.Comparison of the modelled and observed values suggests that the model was able to produce reasonable plume concentrations and spatial gradients downwind of the source. Model concentrations were generally less than those observed on the leeward side of the Island of Hawaii. This deficiency may be explained by a lack of (i) background concentrations, (ii) local sources of pollution and/or (iii) sea-breeze circulation in the prognostic input wind field. These results represent early progress toward the goal of future operational application of the HY-SPLIT model to predict volcanic aerosol concentrations in Hawaii. This may help mitigate their negative impacts of plumes respiratory health, agriculture, and general aviation.     

Ethnic Residential Segregation Across an Urban System: The Maori in New Zealand, 1991–2001

In New Zealand there are substantial variations across the urban system in the degree of residential segregation of those claiming Maori ethnicity. Analyses of those variations, using measures particularly relevant to comparative study, show that Maori segregation was greatest in both 1991 and 2001 in larger urban areas and, especially, in those with relatively large Maori populations. A major deviation from this general pattern was in Auckland; further analysis suggests that this was because of considerable sharing of residential space involving Maori and Pacific Islanders. If the total population claiming a Polynesian identity is studied, the relationships between segregation and both size and Polynesian population share are clarified.     

Vent fluid chemistry in Bahía Concepción coastal submarine hydrothermal system, Baja California Sur, Mexico

Shallow submarine hydrothermal activity has been observed in the Bahía Concepción bay, located at the Gulf coast of the Baja California Peninsula, along faults probably related to the extensional tectonics of the Gulf of California region. Diffuse and focused venting of hydrothermal water and gas occurs in the intertidal and shallow subtidal areas down to 15 m along a NW–SE-trending onshore–offshore fault. Temperatures in the fluid discharge area vary from 50 °C at the sea bottom up to 87 °C at a depth of 10 cm in the sediments.Chemical analyses revealed that thermal water is enriched in Ca, As, Hg, Mn, Ba, HCO₃, Li, Sr, B, I, Cs, Fe and Si, and it has lower concentrations of Cl, Na, SO₄ and Br than seawater. The chemical characteristics of the water samples indicate the occurrence of mixing between seawater and a thermal end-member. Stable isotopic oxygen and hydrogen composition of thermal samples plot close to the Local Meteoric Water Line on a mixing trend between a thermal end-member and seawater. The composition of the thermal end-member was calculated from the chemistry of the submarine samples data by assuming a negligible amount of Mg for the thermal end-member. The results of the mixing model based on the chemical and isotopic composition indicate a maximum of 40% of the thermal end-member in the submarine vent fluid.Chemical geothermometers (Na/Li, Na–K–Ca and Si) were applied to the thermal end-member concentration and indicate a reservoir temperature of approximately 200 °C. The application of K–Mg and Na/Li geothermometers for vent fluids points to a shallow equilibrium temperature of about 120 °C.Results were integrated in a hydrogeological conceptual model that describes formation of thermal fluids by infiltration and subsequent heating of meteoric water. Vent fluid is generated by further mixing with seawater.     

Towards Operational Repeat-Pass SAR Interferometry at Active Volcanoes

Measurement of volcanic surface movement is an operational technique at many volcano observatories to help understand internal processes and to aid in eruption forecasting. The potential of differential radar interferometry (DInSAR) to map patterns of surface deformation on volcanoes is well-proven. However, the technique has not yet become operational, partly because current spaceborne radars were not designed for the task. We discuss the limitations of the European Space Agency's ERS SARs for this purpose in terms of: radar system constraints, volcano surface characteristics, interpretational uncertainties and the operational context. We illustrate the drawbacks at typical stratovolcanoes in South America, chosen to represent a range of conditions. For non expert users of DInSAR, knowing how well DInSAR will work on a particular volcano is important. Freely-available global datasets of vegetation cover and atmospheric water vapour content can be used as proxy measures of coherence and path delay effects, which are the two main determinants of data quality. Operational volcano DInSAR is still years away, but many of the characteristics of such a system can be specified based on the experience learned from earlier radars.     

The effects of local campaign spending on the geography of the flow‐of‐the‐vote at the 1991 New South Wales state election

There is a tendency to assume that election campaigning at the local electorate level has little or no impact on voters subject to the influence of highly centralised campaigns and an increasingly nationalised media. However, as applied to the flow‐of‐the‐vote, this study concludes that local campaign spending has real consequences for vote shifts. For the 1991 New South Wales state election, it is established that any major commitment to local electorate spending by one of the major parties relative to the other increases flows to that party and reduces flows from it. However, incumbency of individual seats as such does not appear to have any significant effect. There is a strong suggestion that, for this election, the Liberal‐National Coalition in government was at a distinct disadvantage compared with the Labor Party in opposition, the spending of the former having a much reduced impact on retaining or attracting votes compared with spending by Labor.     

Short-term effects of a low dissolved oxygen event on estuarine fish assemblages following the passage of hurricane Charley

Hurricane Charley, a category 4 storm, passed directly over the Charlotte Harbor estuary and Peace River watershed on August 13, 2004. Following the storm's passage, dissolved oxygen in the Peace River fell below 1 mg l⁻¹ and hypoxic conditions (<2mgl⁻¹) extended into Charlotte Harbor. A long-term fisheries-independent monitoring program (1989 to present) was already in place in Charlotte Harbor, and sampling was intensified during the month after the storm. Changes in fish assemblages that resulted from the hypoxic event were determined using nonmetric multidimensional scaling and similarity percentages analysis. At the mouth of the Peace River and upper Charlotte Harbor, fish abundance decreased dramatically after the hurricane, and typical estuarine fish assemblages were replaced by those dominated by a few resilient estuarine and freshwater species, including the nonindigenous brown hoplo (Hoplosternum littorale) and sailfin catfish (Pterygoplichthys spp.). Fish assemblages in the estuarine portion of the Maykka River, located only a few kilometers west of the Peace River, were unaffected. The hypoxic event was short lived; dissolved oxygen and estuarine fish assemblages in the Peace River and upper Charlotte Harbor recovered within a month. The results of this study are consistent with other hurricane-related hypoxic events in the literature which have reported acute effects to estuarine systems in the short term, rapid recoveries, and long-term resilience.     

中国北方晚第四纪气候变化的沙漠与黄土记录* ——以光释光年代为基础的直接对比

中国北方有约200×10⁴km²的面积被黄土、沙漠和荒漠戈壁沉积物覆盖,这些地区堆积物的形成变化与第四纪气候变化密切相关。关于中国北方沙漠与黄土记录晚第四纪古气候变化的研究不少,但是,由于受到方法和条件等限制,系统的(高密度的)和独立的年代学工作比较薄弱,从而使诸多已经发表的关于沙漠-黄土记录的亚轨道时间尺度气候变化的结论受到质疑。文章通过对黄土高原代表性的4个末次冰期以来的黄土剖面以及毛乌素、浑善达克和科尔沁沙地的20多个末次冰期-全新世的沙-砂质古土壤剖面的研究,获得了150多个独立的光释光年龄数据。在此基础上,结合200多个样品的粒度、有机质含量和磁化率数据,重建末次冰期以来中国北方气候变化过程,对比分析沙地与黄土古气候记录的联系。结果表明,中国北方古气候在57.5~52.5kaB.P.相对干旱,41.5~37.3kaB.P.相对湿润,26~22kaB.P.逐渐干旱,22~18kaB.P.极端干旱,15~10kaB.P.干旱,10~8kaB.P.为干旱减弱的时期,8.0~2.4kaB.P.相对湿润,而2.4kaB.P.以来气候为相对干旱。其间,在8.0~2.4kaB.P.的湿润时期有几次干旱事件,而2.4kaB.P.以来气候变化频繁。具有独立年代控制的黄土和沙漠记录表明,中国北方的气候变化对轨道时间尺度的太阳辐射变化有大约3~4ka的滞后。     

Examining the potential of high sampling resolution OSL dating of Chinese loess

Detailed analysis of the depositional characteristics of Chinese loess is required to determine the nature of the paleoclimate record preserved in these extensive sediments. High sampling resolution optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating has the potential to facilitate such an analysis. However, high-resolution dating is extremely time consuming and therefore of limited practical applicability. This study assesses the luminescence characteristics of loess from three sections on the Chinese Loess Plateau in an attempt to identify methods of increasing sample throughput without compromising data quality. Using the single-aliquot regenerative-dose technique, samples yield internally consistent results. However, dose recovery data indicate that care is required in selecting preheating regimes for different sections. The standardized growth curve approach was tested and found to be applicable within, but not between, sites. Nonetheless, the use of standardized growth curves offers increases in sample throughput that will allow more routine high-resolution dating of Chinese loess. High-resolution dose rates calculated using inductively coupled plasma (ICP) methods show relative homogeneity of radioisotope concentrations and are comparable to lower resolution field gamma-spectrometry measurements. Consequently, high-resolution OSL dating has great potential to elucidate the depositional characteristics of Chinese loess and facilitate more precise use of the paleoclimatic information it preserves.