Predictability of the Earth’s polar motion

The numerical prediction of the Earth’s polar motion is of both theoretical and practical interest. The present paper is aimed at a comprehensive, experimental study of the predictability of polar motion using a homogeneous BIH (Bureau International de l’Heure) data set for the period 1967–1983. Based on our knowledge of the physics of the annual and the Chandler wobbles, we build the numerical model for the polar motion by allowing the wobble period to vary. Using an optimum base length of six years for prediction, this “floating-period” model, equipped with a nonlinear least-squares estimator, is found to yield polar motion predictions accurate to within 0″.012 to 0″.024 depending on the prediction length up to one year, corresponding to a predictability of 89–82%. This represents a considerable improvement over the conventional fixed-period predictor, which, by its nature, does not respond to variations in the apparent wobble periods (in particular, a dramatic decrease in the periods of both the annual and the Chandler wobbles after the year 1980). The superiority of the floating-period predictor to other predictors based on critically different numerical models is also demonstrated.     

Latent heat of melting and its importance for glaciation cycles

A dynamical energy balance model is developed including both latent heat and sensible heat exchanges. It is applied to reconstructing the history of the changes of the icesheet mass and the ocean surface temperature over an ice age. The zero-dimensional model is extended to include three-dimensional information of the icesheets by assuming a specific geometric shape of the icesheets. The ice-albedo feedback can then be calculated and, at the same time, the cryosphere interaction is introduced into the climate model. The advancing of the glaciers and the cooling of the oceans in a glacial period can be accounted for by the differential equations of the dynamic system if an external perturbation in the form of any energy deficit of 0.13% of the insolation is imposed. The earth orbital changes generate a heat deficit of this magnitude due to the change of the eccentricity and have the same periodicity of 100 000 years as the major glacial cycles. Therefore they could well be the origin of the Pleistocene ice ages. Editor's Note: This note generated strong, but mixed, reactions from three referees. Its conclusions should thus be weighed carefully. It is published despite the cautionary reviews in order to spur debate on the large remaining uncertainties over the causes of Pleistocene glacial cycles.     

Size matters: experimental partitioning of the strength of fish herbivory on a fringing coral reef in Moorea,French Polynesia

While the importance of top‐down control by grazers in maintaining tropical reef community structure is well known, the effect of ‘fishing down the food web’, which simultaneously changes the abundance and size of herbivorous fishes, has received less attention. As many fishing practices target the biggest fish and regulations often set minimum size limits, understanding size‐dependency of this controlling force is important. We evaluated the hypothesis that reduction in the abundance and size of fish, regardless of species identity, reduces the role of herbivory in controlling algal abundance on reefs and assessed variation in efficacy of this top‐down control on different types of common macroalgae. We quantified herbivory rates within cages of differing opening sizes on assemblages of four common algal species (Padina boryana, Dictyota bartayresiana, Halimeda opuntia and Galaxaura fasciculata) on two fringing reefs in Moorea, French Polynesia. Small acanthurids (<15 cm length) were the dominant herbivorous fish while other herbivorous fish were rare. For the two most palatable algae, the majority of herbivory occurred in open plots, with herbivory reduced by >50% in the largest opening cages (6 × 6 cm) where the maximum size fish entering was 12 cm in length (mean = 7.6, SE = 0.4). Fish entering medium (4.5 × 4.5 cm openings, maximum fish length = 8 cm, mean = 6.3, SE = 0.4) and small (3 × 3 cm openings, no fish observed entering) cages had herbivory rates approximately equal to the control treatment (1 × 1 cm openings). Consumption varied among algal species, with minimal consumption of physically and chemically defended algae and no pattern across treatments. Our results demonstrate a need for management plans to not only maintain the overall abundance of herbivorous fish but to protect the largest sizes for effective top‐down control of algal communities.     

BIOMONITORING OF AMBIENT CONCENTRATIONS OF CADMIUM,COPPER, LEAD AND ZINC IN THE COASTAL WETLAND WATER BY USING GILLS OF THE GREEN- LIPPED MUSSEL PERNA VIRIDIS

1 INTRODUCTIONThe use of marine mussels for the biomonitoringpurposes is widely found in the literatures. However,the use of a particular tissue/organ for more accurateindicators of metal bioavailability and contaminationwere continually reported. For exa…     

Impacts of Streambed Heterogeneity and Anisotropy on Residence Time of Hyporheic Zone

The hyporheic zone (HZ), which is the region beneath or alongside a streambed, plays an important role in the stream's ecology. The duration that a water molecule or a solute remains within the HZ, or residence time (RT), is one of the most common metrics used to evaluate the function of the HZ. The RT is greatly influenced by the streambed's hydraulic conductivity (K), which is intrinsically difficult to characterize due to its heterogeneity and anisotropy. Many laboratory and numerical studies of the HZ have simplified the streambed K to a constant, thus producing RT values that may differ from those gathered from the field. Some studies have considered the heterogeneity of the HZ, but very few have accounted for anisotropy or the natural K distributions typically found in real streambeds. This study developed numerical models in MODFLOW to examine the influence of heterogeneity and anisotropy, and that of the natural K distribution in a streambed, on the RT of the HZ. Heterogeneity and anisotropy were both found to shorten the mean and median RTs while increasing the range of the RTs. Moreover, heterogeneous K fields arranged in a more orderly pattern had longer RTs than those with random K distributions. These results could facilitate the design of streambed K values and distributions to achieve the desired RT during river restoration. They could also assist the translation of results from the more commonly considered homogeneous and/or isotropic conditions into heterogeneous and anisotropic field situations.     

Metal concentrations in selected tissues and main prey species of the annulated sea snake (Hydrophis cyanocinctus) in the Hara Protected Area, northeastern coast of the Persian Gulf, Iran

This study is the first detailed ecotoxicological study of the annulated sea snake, Hydrophis cyanocinctus. Concentrations of lead, cadmium, nickel and vanadium were evaluated in muscle, liver, kidney, skin and blood of the annulated sea snake (H. cyanocinctus) and in the whole bodies of its main prey species (Periophthalmus waltoni and Boleophthalmus dussumieri) in the Hara Protected Area, the Persian Gulf. The mean concentrations of lead and vanadium were highest in the kidney, which identified the kidney as a target organ for metals in sea snakes as it is in other reptilian groups. Mean concentrations of cadmium and nickel were highest in the liver and skin, respectively. Mean cadmium concentrations were significantly higher in the liver compared to prey species, which indicated that prey items may be a source of cadmium for the annulated sea snake in the study area. Data presented here may be considered as a baseline for further ecotoxicological studies in sea snakes.     

INTERPRETATION OF COPPER AND ZINC CONTAMINATION IN THE AQUATIC ENVIRONMENT OF PENINSULAR MALAYSIA WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO A POLLUTED RIVER, SEPANG RIVER

Three different aquatic ecosystems(an urban pond,Kelana Jaya Pond;a polluted river,Sepang River;and the intertidal and offshore areas of the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia)with different sets of ecological backgrounds and human activities were reviewed and assessed for the levels of Cu and Zn contamination with special reference to those found in polluted sediments collected from the Sepang River.The discussion on the contamination levels of Cu and Zn in the aquatic environment of Peninsular Malaysia was based on a comparison of the metal contamination of 4 kinds of aquatic environments.The comparison of 4 different areas was based on ① total concentrations of 2 metals;② the concentrations and percentages of the nonresistant(EFLE,acid-reducible and oxidisable-organic)and resistant geochemical fractions;and ③ correlation coefficients(R-values)based on data of 4 areas separately and a combination of 4 areas.The Sepang River recorded nonresistant fractions of 63.1% for Zn and 55.8% for Cu in addition to slightly lower metal concentrations when compared to those(60%-70%)reported before the shutting down of the piggery activities in that area.These nonresistant metal percentages(55%-63%)indicated that the metal concentrations were still dominated by anthropogenic sources since nonresistant fraction of metals were mostly contributed by anthropogenic sources.The positive results from the four different aquatic environments assessed here provided strong evidence to show that Malaysia's aquatic environment had received anthropogenic Cu and Zn.The present study also showed that the percentage of the nonresistant fraction and the R-values based on correlation analysis of Cu and Zn could be used as indicators of Cu and Zn pollution in the Malaysian aquatic ecosystem.Based on the present data,the correlation coefficients(R-values)are potential indicators of EFLE Cu and acid-reducible Cu of the sediments.The use of R-values as indicators of metal pollution is suggested and it is applicable to other heavy metal data although it should be improved in future studies.     

High-resolution simulations of a macrotidal estuary using SUNTANS

The parallel, finite-volume, unstructured-grid SUNTANS model has been employed to study the interaction of the tides with complex bathymetry in the macrotidal Snohomish River estuary. The unstructured grid resolves the large-scale, O(10 km) tidal dynamics of the estuary while employing 8 m grid-resolution at a specific region of interest in the vicinity of a confluence of two channels and extensive intertidal mudflats to understand detailed local intratidal flow processes. After calibrating tidal forcing parameters to enforce a match between free surface and depth-averaged velocities at several locations throughout the domain, we analyze the complex dynamics of the confluence and show that the exposure of the intertidal mudflats during low tide induces a complex flow reversal. When coupled with the longitudinal salinity gradient, this flow reversal results in a highly variable salinity field, which has profound implications for local mixing, stratification and the occurrence of fine-scale flow structures. This complex flow is then used as a testbed from which to describe several challenges associated with high resolution modeling of macrotidal estuaries, including specification of high resolution bathymetry, specification of the bottom stress, computation of the nonhydrostatic pressure, accurate advection of momentum, and the influence of the freshwater inflow. The results indicate that with high resolution comes the added difficulty of requiring more accurate specification of boundary conditions. In particular, the bottom bathymetry plays the most important role in achieving accurate predictions when high resolution is employed.     

Numerical comparison study of cloud microphysical parameterization schemes for a moderate snowfall event in North China

Summary A moderate snowfall event in North China is simulated using the high-resolution mesoscale model MM5. A fourfold-nest experiment, with a minimum horizontal grid size of 2 km, is run. In order to study the cloud microphysics processes associated with the snowfall, two experiments were conducted in two inner domains, one using the Goddard scheme (Goddard experiment), and the other using the Reisner scheme (Reisner experiment). The analysis focused on the comparison of the cloud microphysics processes which occurred in the experiments. It is shown that there is no implicit precipitation of cumulus parameterization in the domain of grid scale 18 km. The snowfall distribution patterns in the experiments are slightly different, but the microphysical characteristics and processes may have considerable differences between the two experiments: (1) The water substances in the cloud have cloud water, cloud ice and snow, but no rainwater and graupel in the Goddard experiment. However, the water substances in the cloud have cloud ice, snow, and graupel, but no cloud water and rainwater in the Reisner experiment. (2) The cloud ice mixing ratios in the Goddard experiment are larger than those in the Reisner experiment. (3) In the Goddard experiment, the dominant cloud microphysical processes include the growth of cloud water by the condensation of supersaturated vapor, the depositional growth of cloud ice, the initiation of cloud ice, the accretion of cloud ice by snow, the accretion of cloud water by snow, the deposition growth of snow and the Bergeron process of cloud ice. In the Reisner experiment, the dominant cloud microphysical processes include the depositional growth of cloud ice, the conversion of cloud ice to snow, the deposition of snow, and the deposition growth of graupel. (4) There is only snowfall in the Goddard experiment. Meanwhile, there is ice fall, snow fall, and graupel in the Reisner experiment. But the ice fall and graupel in the Reisner experiment is very slight and can be ignored.