A data based mechanistic approach to nonlinear flood routing and adaptive flood level forecasting

Operational flood forecasting requires accurate forecasts with a suitable lead time, in order to be able to issue appropriate warnings and take appropriate emergency actions. Recent improvements in both flood plain characterization and computational capabilities have made the use of distributed flood inundation models more common. However, problems remain with the application of such models. There are still uncertainties associated with the identifiability of parameters; with the computational burden of calculating distributed estimates of predictive uncertainty; and with the adaptive use of such models for operational, real-time flood inundation forecasting. Moreover, the application of distributed models is complex, costly and requires high degrees of skill. This paper presents an alternative to distributed inundation models for real-time flood forecasting that provides fast and accurate, medium to short-term forecasts. The Data Based Mechanistic (DBM) methodology exploits a State Dependent Parameter (SDP) modelling approach to derive a nonlinear dependence between the water levels measured at gauging stations along the river. The transformation of water levels depends on the relative geometry of the channel cross-sections, without the need to apply rating curve transformations to the discharge. The relationship obtained is used to transform water levels as an input to a linear, on-line, real-time and adaptive stochastic DBM model. The approach provides an estimate of the prediction uncertainties, including allowing for heterescadasticity of the multi-step-ahead forecasting errors. The approach is illustrated using an 80 km reach of the River Severn, in the UK.     

Climate change effects on hydrological system conditions influencing generation of storm runoff in small Alpine catchments

Floods and debris flows in small Alpine torrent catchments (<10 km²) arise from a combination of critical antecedent system state conditions and mostly convective precipitation events with high precipitation intensities. Thus, climate change may influence the magnitude–frequency relationship of extreme events twofold: by a modification of the occurrence probabilities of critical hydrological system conditions and by a change of event precipitation characteristics. Three small Alpine catchments in different altitudes in Western Austria (Ruggbach, Brixenbach and Längentalbach catchment) were investigated by both field experiments and process‐based simulation. Rainfall–runoff model (HQsim) runs driven by localized climate scenarios (CNRM‐RM4.5/ARPEGE, MPI‐REMO/ECHAM5 and ICTP‐RegCM3/ECHAM5) were used in order to estimate future frequencies of stormflow triggering system state conditions. According to the differing altitudes of the study catchments, two effects of climate change on the hydrological systems can be observed. On one hand, the seasonal system state conditions of medium altitude catchments are most strongly affected by air temperature‐controlled processes such as the development of the winter snow cover as well as evapotranspiration. On the other hand, the unglaciated high‐altitude catchment is less sensitive to climate change‐induced shifts regarding days with critical antecedent soil moisture and desiccated litter layer due to its elevation‐related small proportion of sensitive areas. For the period 2071–2100, the number of days with critical antecedent soil moisture content will be significantly reduced to about 60% or even less in summer in all catchments. In contrast, the number of days with dried‐out litter layers causing hydrophobic effects will increase by up to 8%–11% of the days in the two lower altitude catchments. The intensity analyses of heavy precipitation events indicate a clear increase in rain intensities of up to 10%.     

Sources of fluids and gases expelled at cold seeps offshore Georgia, eastern Black Sea

Four seep sites located within an ∼20 km² area offshore Georgia (Batumi seep area, Pechori Mound, Iberia Mound, and Colkheti Seep) show characteristic differences with respect to element concentrations, and oxygen, hydrogen, strontium, and chlorine isotope signatures in pore waters, as well as impregnation of sediments with petroleum and hydrocarbon potential. All seep sites have active gas seepage, near surface authigenic carbonates and gas hydrates. Cokheti Seep, Iberia Mound, and Pechori Mound are characterized by oil-stained sediments and gas seepage decoupled from deep fluid advection and bottom water intrusion induced by gas bubble release. Pechori Mound is further characterized by deep fluid advection of lower salinity pore fluids. The Pechori Mound pore fluids are altered by mineral/water reactions at elevated temperatures (between 60 and 110 °C) indicated by heavier oxygen and lighter chlorine isotope values, distinct Li and B enrichment, and K depletion. Strontium isotope ratios indicate that fluids originate from late Oligocene strata. This finding is supported by the occurrence of hydrocarbon impregnations within the sediments. Furthermore, light hydrocarbons and high molecular weight impregnates indicate a predominant thermogenic origin for the gas and oil at Pechori Mound, Iberia Mound, and Colkheti Seep. C₁₅₊ hydrocarbons at the oil seeps are allochtonous, whereas those at the Batumi seep area are autochthonous. The presence of oleanane, an angiosperm biomarker, suggests that the hydrocarbon source rocks belong to the Maikopian Formation. In summary, all investigated seep sites show a high hydrocarbon potential and hydrocarbons of Iberia Mound, Colkheti Seep, and Pechori Mound are predominantly of thermogenic origin. However, only at the latter seep site advection of deep pore fluids is indicated.     

Estimation of phase center corrections for GLONASS-M satellite antennas

Driven by the comprehensive modernization of the GLONASS space segment and the increased global availability of GLONASS-capable ground stations, an updated set of satellite-specific antenna phase center corrections for the current GLONASS-M constellation is determined by processing 84 weeks of dual-frequency data collected between January 2008 and August 2009 by a worldwide network of 227 GPS-only and 115 combined GPS/GLONASS tracking stations. The analysis is performed according to a rigorous combined multi-system processing scheme providing full consistency between the GPS and the GLONASS system. The solution is aligned to a realization of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame 2005. The estimated antenna parameters are compared with the model values currently used within the International GNSS Service (IGS). It is shown that the z-offset estimates are on average 7 cm smaller than the corresponding IGS model values and that the block-specific mean value perfectly agrees with the nominal GLONASS-M z-offset provided by the satellite manufacturer. The existence of azimuth-dependent phase center variations is investigated and uncertainties in the horizontal offset estimates due to mathematical correlations and yaw-attitude modeling problems during eclipse seasons are addressed. Finally, it is demonstrated that the orbit quality benefits from the updated GLONASS-M antenna phase center model and that a consistent set of satellite antenna z-offsets for GPS and GLONASS is imperative to obtain consistent GPS- and GLONASS-derived station heights.     

Uranyl Retention on Quartz—New Experimental Data and Blind Prediction Using an Existing Surface Complexation Model

The adsorption behaviour of uranyl onto seven different samples of quartz was studied in batch experiments. Sea-sand (0.1–0.3 mm), Fil-Pro 12/20 (1–2 mm) and five Min-U-Sil samples with smaller particle sizes (5, 10, 15, 30 and 40 μm) were used. The uptake curves show “pH adsorption edges” in the range of pH 4–5. A good agreement of the new data with literature data was found when plotting surface-normalised distribution coefficients versus pH. Differences in the adsorption behaviour for pre-treated and untreated sea-sand samples were detectable resulting in a shift of the pH edge to higher pH values after treatment. A literature surface complexation model was applied for blind predictions of the experimental results. The simulations described the experimental observations quite well for the Min-U-Sil samples. For the two coarser quartz samples, the calculated over-predictions were explained by the larger-than-expected measured specific surface area and measurable amounts of associated minerals, for Fil-Pro 12/20 and sea-sand, respectively. Dissolution of the samples was studied as a function of pH. After 5 days, the measured Si concentrations were all higher than equilibrium quartz solubilities, but lower than those of amorphous silica. With increasing pH, dissolved silica increased. This strongly suggests that formation of dissolved uranyl–silicato complexes have to be considered based on measured silica concentrations.     

Stratigraphy and Mesozoic–Cenozoic tectonic history of northern Sierra Los Ajos and adjacent areas,Sonora, Mexico

Geologic mapping in the northern Sierra Los Ajos reveals new stratigraphic and structural data relevant to deciphering the Mesozoic–Cenozoic tectonic evolution of the range. The northern Sierra Los Ajos is cored by Proterozoic, Cambrian, Devonian, Mississippian, and Pennsylvanian strata, equivalent respectively to the Pinal Schist, Bolsa Quartzite and Abrigo Limestone, Martin Formation, Escabrosa Limestone, and Horquilla Limestone. The Proterozoic–Paleozoic sequence is mantled by Upper Cretaceous rocks partly equivalent to the Fort Crittenden and Salero Formations in Arizona, and the Cabullona Group in Sonora, Mexico.Absence of the Upper Jurassic–Lower Cretaceous Bisbee Group below the Upper Cretaceous rocks and above the Proterozoic–Paleozoic rocks indicates that the Sierra Los Ajos was part of the Cananea high, a topographic highland during the Late Jurassic and Early Cretaceous. Deposition of Upper Cretaceous rocks directly on Paleozoic and Proterozoic rocks indicates that the Sierra Los Ajos area had subsided as part of the Laramide Cabullona basin during Late Cretaceous time. Basal beds of the Upper Cretaceous sequence are clast-supported conglomerate composed locally of basement (Paleozoic) clasts. The conglomerate represents erosion of Paleozoic basement in the Sierra Los Ajos area coincident with development of the Cabullona basin.The present-day Sierra Los Ajos reaches elevations of greater than 2600 m, and was uplifted during Tertiary basin-and-range extension. Upper Cretaceous rocks are exposed at higher elevations in the northern Sierra Los Ajos and represent an uplifted part of the inverted Cabullona basin. Tertiary uplift of the Sierra Los Ajos was largely accommodated by vertical movement along the north-to-northwest-striking Sierra Los Ajos fault zone flanking the west side of the range. This fault zone structurally controls the configuration of the headwaters of the San Pedro River basin, an important bi-national water resource in the US-Mexico border region.     

Probabilistic collocation and lagrangian sampling for advective tracer transport in randomly heterogeneous porous media

The Karhunen-Loeve (KL) decomposition and the polynomial chaos (PC) expansion are elegant and efficient tools for uncertainty propagation in porous media. Over recent years, KL/PC-based frameworks have successfully been applied in several contributions for the flow problem in the subsurface context. It was also shown, however, that the accurate solution of the transport problem with KL/PC techniques is more challenging. We propose a framework that utilizes KL/PC in combination with sparse Smolyak quadrature for the flow problem only. In a subsequent step, a Lagrangian sampling technique is used for transport. The flow field samples are calculated based on a PC expansion derived from the solutions at relatively few quadrature points. To increase the computational efficiency of the PC-based flow field sampling, a new reduction method is applied. For advection dominated transport scenarios, where a Lagrangian approach is applicable, the proposed PC/Monte Carlo method (PCMCM) is very efficient and avoids accuracy problems that arise when applying KL/PC techniques to both flow and transport. The applicability of PCMCM is demonstrated for transport simulations in multivariate Gaussian log-conductivity fields that are unconditional and conditional on conductivity measurements.     

Experimental Study of the Brittle Behavior of Clay shale in Rapid Unconfined Compression

The mechanical behavior of clay shales is of great interest in many branches of geo-engineering, including nuclear waste disposal, underground excavations, and deep well drilling. Observations from test galleries (Mont Terri, Switzerland and Bure, France) in these materials have shown that the rock mass response near the excavation is associated with brittle failure processes combined with bedding parallel shearing. To investigate the brittle failure characteristics of the Opalinus Clay recovered from the Mont Terri Underground Research Laboratory, a series of 19 unconfined uniaxial compression tests were performed utilizing servo-controlled testing procedures. All specimens were tested at their natural water content with loading approximately normal to the bedding. Acoustic emission (AE) measurements were utilized to help quantify stress levels associated with crack initiation and propagation. The unconfined compression strength of the tested specimens averaged 6.9 MPa. The crack initiation threshold occurred at approximately 30% of the rupture stress based on analyzing both the acoustic emission measurements and the stress–strain behavior. The crack damage threshold showed large variability and occurred at approximately 70% of the rupture stress.     

Calcium isotope record of Phanerozoic oceans: Implications for chemical evolution of seawater and its causative mechanisms

A total of 280 brachiopods of Ordovician to Cretaceous age, complemented by published data from belemnites and planktonic foraminifera, are used to reconstruct the evolution of calcium isotope composition of seawater (δ^44/40Ca_SW) over the Phanerozoic. The compiled δ^44/40Ca_SW record shows a general increase from ∼1.3‰ (NIST SRM 915a) at the beginning of the Ordovician to ∼2‰ at present. Superimposed on this trend is a major long-term positive excursion from the Early Carboniferous to Early Permian as well as several short-term, mostly negative, oscillations.A numerical model of the global cycles of calcium, carbon, magnesium and strontium was used to estimate whether the recorded δ^44/40Ca_SW variations can be explained by varying magnitudes of input and output fluxes of calcium to the oceans. The model uses the record of marine ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios as proxy for seafloor spreading rates, a record of oceanic Mg/Ca ratios to estimate rates of dolomite formation, and reconstructed atmospheric CO₂, discharge and erosion rates to estimate continental weathering fluxes.The model results indicate that varying magnitudes of the calcium input and output fluxes cannot explain the observed δ^44/40Ca_SW trends, suggesting that the isotope signatures of these fluxes must also have changed. As a possible mechanism we suggest variable isotope fractionation in the sedimentary output flux controlled by the dominant mineralogy in marine carbonate deposits, i.e. the oscillating ‘calcite-aragonite seas’. The ultimate control of the calcium isotope budget of the Phanerozoic oceans appears to have been tectonic processes, specifically variable rates of oceanic crust production that modulated the hydrothermal calcium flux and the oceanic Mg/Ca ratio, which in turn controlled the dominant mineralogy of marine carbonates, hence the δ^44/40Ca_SW. As to the causes of the short-term oscillations recorded in the secular δ^44/40Ca_SW trend, we tentatively propose that these are related to variable rates of dolomite formation and/or to changing chemical composition of the riverine flux, in particular and ratios, induced by variable proportions of silicate vs. carbonate weathering rates on the continents.